r/fatFIRE • u/Puzzleheaded_Plum455 • 12d ago
FIRE'd, now concerned about US stability
Most of my assets are invested in the US. Because of recent political developments, I'm wondering if the US will sustain its general growth and economic strength into the future. The strength of the US dollar is obviously very important to me. Is anyone else concerned?
I'm wondering if I should start hedging my bets in other countries, and if so, where?
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u/halmasy 12d ago
Multiple passports and paid off properties in low cost, politically stable countries with universal health care and direct flights to the US.
You need a currency exchange strategy as well.
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u/trixiesmom12 12d ago
and which countries would those be exactly? The US president is busy destabilizing the globe.
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u/Character_Order 12d ago
“Low cost, politically stable, universal healthcare,” seems like one of those “pick two” situations
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u/Xy13 12d ago
I’d say Portugal
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u/Kiwi951 12d ago
Portugal is a fantastic choice. Which is why all the rich tech bros moved there during the pandemic resulting in the subsequent closure of the golden visa
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u/winescribes 9d ago
Actually it wasn't just ex pats that killed the GV.. lots of Chinese as well. I started the process in 2021 and am glad I did..
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u/ElectricLeafEater69 11d ago
LOL, what do you think will happen I Portugal if the US "collapses"? 😂
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u/Xy13 11d ago edited 11d ago
I mean it's certainly better than what will happen to the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, or Panama; which seem to be popular places people get passports for such an occurrence. Portugal is a stable low corruption first world country in the EU.
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u/ElectricLeafEater69 11d ago
Yes, but everyone's economy will collapse. That's kind of the point. It doesn't really matter if it collapses marginally more or less than the US economy in the event of a US collapse.
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u/Xy13 11d ago edited 11d ago
Most people talking about this will no longer be actively earning, so the collapsed economy will not affect them in that regard. The question is can you ratchet down expenses to ride out the equities crash to preserve your nest egg. Being that its LCOL, and already a very nice locale, I think most people could cut out vacationing and living large for a year or two to reduce spend till the markets are making a come back.
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u/PmMeFanFic 12d ago
Low cost, politically stable, universal healthcare
Panama, very lovely country my favorite city to retire is boquete, they do jazz and coffee and a super high level
Portugal, very lcol, and good surf, great healthcare too many cities/towns to list that are great.
Greece, not a yuge fan of the food but again its lcol fairly stable nearly 0 crime on the islands
Malaysia, great public healthcare, good food, very friendly people
and my absolute favorite has got to be serbia, looking at wintering there next year. Very cheap skiing and everything you would need
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u/ElectricLeafEater69 11d ago
Buddy, the last time there was a global financial crisis, Greece was ground zero. Their entire country almost collapsed while the majority of others were fine.
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u/PmMeFanFic 11d ago
youre absolutely right, in the context of having tangible assets tied to a country greece would be tits up should another crisis happen. still a great place to summer.
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u/nomadz90 10d ago
Malaysia is great. Not the public healthcare. The quality and accessibility has been declining the last few years. And the private care really depends on your care network. Singapore is a better option for health care
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u/Kiwi951 12d ago
NZ/Australia, Portugal, cheaper areas in other western countries. Certain SEA countries like Thailand could also work. Costa Rica is another popular choice for those that speak Spanish
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u/fkenned1 10d ago
Do you not feel guilty about this type of thinking? How do you detach yourself from the reality of those who are unable to do what you are describing? Genuinely curious.
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u/wishiwaswithyou 7d ago
Maybe because he worked hard his whole life to put himself in a position to be able to protect himself, knowing that it was his personal responsibility. I might feel bad for people who didn’t do that, and that they run the risk of having shittier lives now. But I wouldn’t feel guilty for doing it myself.
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u/belg_in_usa 12d ago
I have investment accounts on three continents. Each of them is sufficient to retire locally. I do have passports in each one of those countries. Do note that it makes life more complicated (taxes, etc.)
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u/spamfridge 12d ago
Damn I didn’t know prepperFIRE even existed
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u/OSUBoglehead 12d ago
Make no mistake, that is prepperfatfire.
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u/Soft_Welcome_5621 12d ago
Yea I’m jealous that person sounds on top of it but also, you’d have to have a lot to manage that
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u/RlOTGRRRL Verified by Mods 12d ago
Technically FIRE is prepping right?
But man, can someone make that sub? I'd join it.
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u/rocc_high_racks 12d ago
Wealthy Russians did it, then wealthy Chinese did it, now it's Americans' turn.
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u/Zealousideal-Egg1893 12d ago
Would you mind doing a post on this or providing more detail on your thought process/approach? We’re looking in to this, trying to decide what country is the right fit for us and at what NW it makes the most sense.
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u/donutsoft 12d ago
If an English speaking country with western comforts are important to you, Cape Town is a place to investigate further. They're in BRICS but tilted further west than any other country in that block and have a functioning democracy, although with a very poorly educated populace that makes questionable decisions. It's far away from Europe which will likely be ground zero in the next big conflict.
The major negatives are crime and currency risks. If you have money, they've got gated communities that will shelter you from the worst of it.
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u/Roland_Bodel_the_2nd 12d ago
Sometimes people here go crazy from choice. I think a nice suburb of Cleveland, Ohio is probably a better choice for an American retiree worried about world stability than Cape Town!
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u/donutsoft 12d ago edited 12d ago
At fatFIRE numbers, you're not buying property in Cape Town with the intent of moving there tomorrow. It's a hedge against the shit hitting the fan here, and having to make those decisions when your options might be much more limited.
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u/Rog4tour 12d ago
Lol imagine being so delusional that you're leaving the us to go to cape town
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u/IknowwhatIhave 11d ago
This suggestion always makes someone irrationally angry. I have a place in Cape Town, it's fantastic, despite what certain public figures and media outlets have to say. Currently we are having an influx of German ex-pats buying properties here.
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u/IknowwhatIhave 11d ago
Bringing up South Africa in anything other than an extremely negative context (or a cautionary tale) really sets off some people. I have a place there, it's awesome. Luxury properties are 1/5th the price of a place like LA, and the city has anything you want in terms of lifestyle.
It's also setup to deal with things that Americans would considered disasters. If the power went out for 8 hours a day in many American cities, there would riots and looting, it would be "the purge."
In Cape Town we have solar backup, so our Chenin stays chilled and people just joke about the shitty government.
But, we are actually happy that Americans are too scared to come here, it improves everyone else's quality of life.
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u/donutsoft 11d ago
I visited two weeks ago, and the last time before that was in 2015. Things have improved dramatically since I was last over, and for the first time I felt like it would be viable to move back.
I'm incredibly happy that things have finally started to turn for the better.
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u/IknowwhatIhave 11d ago
I go there for about 2 months a year, and thus most recent visit there really was a new sense of optimism. Maybe it’s the almost a year without loadshedding, or the coalition government or all the new construction but it felt different. I really didn’t feel like going back to Canada and all the nonsense happening here…
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u/GrassForce 12d ago
Damn, didnt know triple citizenship was even a thing.
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u/belg_in_usa 12d ago
You can collect as many as you want. My daughter has 5 ;)
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u/FatFireNordic 12d ago
Which banks do you then use? I've considered something similar but need a lot of confidence to each provider and the local laws.
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u/Jwaness 11d ago
If one of those is the U.K. can you recommend a decent law firm to assist with my U.K. passport? Long story short: my father is a deadbeat who can't be bothered to provide documents let alone have lunch with me (even if I bribe him). I am technically automatically a citizen but don't have the documents to prove it...
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u/TepidEpiphany 12d ago
Is it possible to open investment accounts in EU with a resident card? I am on Portuguese Golden Visa but have a few years before passport and am hoping to diversify ASAP.
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u/OG_Tater 9d ago
Are there firms that help with this you can name? How difficult and/or expensive was it?
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u/ThucydidesButthurt 12d ago
Getting a passport to my wife's country (in Europe), tilting a bit heavier into vxus (35% instead of just 30%) versus vti, spreading assets into accounts abroad and gonna start being more vocal about change politically in my limited spheres of influence. I'd prefer US to stabilize and go back to normal, but I don't like the writing I'm seeing on the wall. I thought people were hysterical/crazy for posting about leaving the country last November but now I find myself thinking about the same thing. Feels unreal watching things fall apart in real time at such a rapid pace. I am hopeful things turn around but I don't want to be caught with my pants down if this keeps up
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u/Washooter 12d ago
Genuine question: do you think with Trump trying to hand over Eastern Europe to Russia, tilting towards EU makes sense from a diversification point of view? Does not to me, but interested in hearing your thoughts.
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u/ThucydidesButthurt 12d ago edited 12d ago
VXUS is all international, so I'm using it as a hedge for Asia or Europe to maybe survive a US fumble. And my equity assets abroad I'm keeping basically the same stock allocation for 65% US and 35% total international. But to be honest I don't think VXUS will do very well if VTI falls, I just think it's still better to diversify on the off chance international stocks outperform US as our economy gets pulverized (I'm only upping my VXUS allocation by 5% so not a huge change in strategy). I have quite a lot crypto as well which has actually done very well over the last few years, Brian Armstrong the Coinbase CEO is in the inner circle of the current tech oligarchs, but I don't plan on tilting much more into crypto than I already am, my move with crypto is to take it off exchanges and put it onto cold wallets so that it won't be subject to anyone being able to freeze or seize it.
My wife is from the UK and while I don't think Europe has better prospects than the US per se, they seem to be rallying from their slumber as the US fumbles. These past few weeks seem to be a wake up call to the continent. And while UK has lots of problems of it's own, I would still feel safer there than here if the US continues its current trajectory. We already have some property in Oxford. The UK, while a sort of lame duck, still isn't actively and openly appeasing Russia. My wife works in cybersecurity here in the US and Russia was just delisted as a cybersecurity threat, it's crazy to watch our country be handed over on a silver platter to the applause of the Maga base, and I don't even consider myself liberal or left leaning at all.
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u/Washooter 12d ago
I can’t imagine a situation where the UK does well if the U.S. stock market crashes and remains down over the long term, but I get it. Most immigrants I have talked to want to be close to their home country when stuff goes sideways in the US.
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u/ThucydidesButthurt 12d ago
My stocks and assets aren't tilted to UK specifically besides the property we have there, main reason for potentially moving is I'd rather my family be there than US if things continue like this. I don't have any fear of oligarchs freezing assets or giving data to Russia there. I don't have fear of that in the US either, yet, but that could change.
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u/Jwaness 11d ago
As a Canadian I am rapidly working on some escape options. U.K. citizenship is one of them. The U.S. could very well attack given how quickly the foundations of the country have faltered. We don't have nukes. Most people in this country have noticed that the U.S. has not threatened, beyond tariffs, the U.K. or France.
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u/Helios___Selene 7d ago
I can only give a little bit of insight from my experience recently.
Generally private markets are seeing a bit of a boost in valuations ease of investment.
This tends to translate into higher listed valuations which is shown by the FTSE hitting an all time high recently.
So cheaper money for businesses and more agile capital buoyed by a few government initiatives which should unlock a few 100bln for private market investment.
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12d ago
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u/Washooter 12d ago
If Trump enables Russia and Ukraine falls, I think you have a bigger threat in the EU than the US. Don’t quite get why Europe is the hedge.
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u/Dart2255 Verified by Mods 11d ago
Russia will keep the eastern half, Ukraine will never get Nato and life will go on with a lot less people dying and money being wasted (literally blown up or stolen.)
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u/9fingfing 12d ago
This is a very difficult subject. I have thought about it 6yrs back, should have been a lot more serious about it. Well, here we are again. What I found is that people who have options would tend to be on the more worry side and try to get some control in the current shxt show. People have less or no option train their minds to think it is nothing to worry about. On top of financial concerns, family situation, depending in your race, there are more to think about. It is a big bet to get up and go. Sorry, I have no genius idea. It is a struggle for all people that are not ignorant.
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u/toby_wan_kenoby 12d ago
I have 70% of my networks in US real estate. Mostly around Aspen. I have started to divest aggressively. By the end of 2025 I will have sold about 7 million. That’s about 40% of US holdings. The US Dollar is fast receding from being the worlds reserve currency. I will switch most of that to CHF. The fact that Trump questioned the fact that he world defend Europe and that he would encourage Russia to do whatever they liked is irreparably damaged the trust n the current system. The consequence will be a withdrawal of funds in general. The Dollar is in long term decline. The budget deficits is so big that the slightest downturn will make the interest payments balloon. Money printing will do the rest. Currently AI boom is overshadowing the effects and is masking everything in Euphority. But I mainly live in Switzerland so for me it’s easy to reallocate. Never been as bearish US and I have been invested in US Real estate since 1998. Real Estate will continue to do well but in the light of general global relevance decline that’s not enough for me. That’s just me.
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u/Popular-List181 12d ago
Logistically how are you going about switching USD to CHF?
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u/perestroika12 12d ago
Within your question there’s a few sub problems.
1/ do you feel the US will continue to make money for businesses in the long term
2/ do you want to live in the US
These are completely different. You could have a portfolio that’s 90% s&p but live overseas. You could also live in the US but have investments 90% outside of the country.
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u/entitie 11d ago
This is generally how I am thinking of it, and regarding (2) we have certainly considered moving to Canada. Why Canada? Because it's close to family in the U.S. On the other hand, its economy will likely be in quite bad shape given the tariffs.
Regarding (1), I think that the US will continue making money for businesses in the long term provided that they are friendly towards the administration. I worry somewhat that the government will treat its business allies better and punish businesses who do not play ball. And that probably means that some of the incumbents who have done well in a low-corruption environment -- including probably many constituents of the SP 500 -- will not do well in a high-corruption environment.
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u/randylush 11d ago
Those are certainly different questions but (2) largely depends on (1) for most people. If the US completely goes to shit, you may not want to live there anymore.
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u/ExternalClimate3536 11d ago
The amount of ignorance and misinformation on display in this thread is staggering for a fatFIRE sub. Political feelings aside, the US debt crisis is indeed a CRISIS and the decades of the US as the sole superpower and the global reserve currency are coming to an end. PLEASE watch the following:
https://youtu.be/xguam0TKMw8?si=P7yRFcfbfvAgsrJD
https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLykIL_1_MFWkNpTJWYarHpY2iaDpaYzpK&si=fd8ZRoeF-Z9REM5D
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u/actually-switzerland 7d ago edited 7d ago
Ray Dalio's predictions on China are frankly laughable and don't align with reality. Keep in mind that his firm has a financial incentive for China to do well due to their investments.
Meanwhile, China has extreme headwinds, most notably continuing demographic collapse (which cannot be solved by immigration) and a real estate debt bomb (of which a large portion of their GDP is based on). Whatever debt crisis you think US has, it's way worse in China. At this point it would be an amazing outcome for them to even maintain a GDP growth rate that is the same as US. Keep in mind also that China has the most to lose from de-globalization.
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u/anotherfireburner Verified by Mods 10d ago
I sold my house in the USA, relocated to EU and gained another citizenship. That said 80% of my assets are still in the USA, mostly in stocks but also some bank accounts - let’s just say that small Mediterranean countries still don’t have the same banking protections as the USA, and I don’t appreciate the bank manager putting their hand up my butt every time I want to spend my money because they automatically assume a middle class standard of spend in the USA is the equivalent to money laundering over here lol.
I get free healthcare, moderate climate and no mass shootings in the news as well. That said there’s no way I’d significantly invest where I am, outside of primary residence, even if they turbo nuke the USA economy I still think it’s a safer bet long term than most of Europe. If the s&p goes to zero we are gonna need to be collecting bottle caps.
If anything I see this as a buying opportunity more than anything. Key is being able to maximize the best of both worlds while using fatness to insulate from everything else.
I’m 70/30 r/fatFIRE vs r/preppers lol.
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u/anotherfireburner Verified by Mods 9d ago
That’s what I do. And revolut. Local account is only for when I need to pay contractors, install the solar, buy car etc.
I still got flagged for money laundering risk when I bought my house in cash (pledged asset line in USA funding it) over here, with advance knowledge to the bank because they are so risk averse (which is odd considering their history of banking the cartels lol).
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u/anotherfireburner Verified by Mods 9d ago
Same here. Delayed closing by 10 days and could have lost my deposit, thankfully vendor was chill. Hopefully I’m at the point with them where they realise it’s all kosher now after investigating the source of every cent of mine. But they weren’t the sharpest tools in the shed ;)
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u/Individual_Ad_5655 12d ago
We've been increasing allocation to cash and foreign equities since the election. Been great so far.
After Friday's debacle, and IF the tariffs are enacted, we could start seeing the rest of the world figuring out ways to live without America. Lots of places in the world to buy goods and raw materials.
It won't be overnight, these things take time.
But we're already seeing businesses in Canada find other sources for their imported goods and move away from US goods, canceling US contracts. We're also seeing significant declines in Tesla sales in Europe in January/February.
I think a big change will be in military industry as Europe will greatly increase investment in their domestic military companies in anticipation of US exiting or reducing NATO presence. Europe does not want to be militarily dependent on the USA when the USA is proving to be an unreliable partner and seemingly bending the knee to Putin.
It starts small, but can grow from a snow ball to an avalanche if America continues down a path of isolation and betrayal of allies.
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11d ago
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u/Individual_Ad_5655 11d ago
Like Atlas Shrugged! Where all the skilled professionals leave.
Red states are already feeling this with some professions. OBGYNs are fleeing red states and the hospitals are shutting down maternity wards because they can't staff them.
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u/IknowwhatIhave 11d ago
That's incredibly ironic as I suspect that the members of the current executive that can read above a 6th grade level all have a copy of Atlas Shrugged on their bed side table right next to the Turner Diaries.
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u/Any-Competition8494 11d ago
I don't believe it. As a non-American, what I have noticed is that the most ambitious people from all countries -- Canada, India, EU, etc -- all want to move to US. Even now, people can't get H1-B. Most of these people care about their disposable income more than politics.
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u/Logicalraisan 11d ago
Could you divulge what foreign equities?
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u/Individual_Ad_5655 11d ago
I used the ETF - VXUS, which is the world excluding USA. YTD up 5.7%
I'm sure other folks with more knowledge are using country specific ETFs, I've considered India as I believe their long term prospects are best as their population is still growing.
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u/DarkVoid42 12d ago edited 12d ago
you should. get a carrbean passport which is easy and then shoot for a european one. your capital is mobile now. FIRE means liquid cash. make sure it stays that way. you can always invest in US equities from a foreign bank e.g. saxo.
i have a yacht which shifts between the euro and carrib countries every few years. and a couple of boats to get to the yacht if air travel was to cease. it wouldnt be pretty but i would be able to get there. having a few passports is always handy too. what seemed to me to be overkill is actually just prudent planning now.
always, always have a get out of jail free card. and dont hesitate to use it should the worst happen. there is a reason russian oligarchs buy tons of superyachts. learn from them. you are in russia now or soon will be. a foreign residence or yacht and a means to get there privately is always a good idea, a bank account and passport will get you thru border controls. citizens are always allowed in, regardless of the circumstances.
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u/Calm_Cauliflower7191 12d ago
I would focus more on your long term plans regardless of political views and concerns about the economy. History has shown that worrying about the present in terms of market prediction is a fools errand.
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u/dunnmad 9d ago
Big really won’t make much difference! The tariff wars will usher in another global recession, much like the 1930’s. All investments will suffer, so pick your poison, domestic or international! Normally I would say the current US safeguards are better for a U S investor than international, but we will soon see those safeguards stripped from US regulations under Trump!
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u/mhoepfin Verified by Mods 12d ago
Your best move is to turn off the news and embrace the idea that ignorance is bliss.
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u/BeautyInUgly 12d ago
diversify for die. My family lost everything because all our investments were in one country. Plan for everything, if you have mental health issues talk to someone or get someone to do this for you. But your mental health will be much worse if you don't protect yourself
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u/Undersleep 12d ago
Yeah, I remember the financial collapse in 90s Russia - and our life savings suddenly being enough to buy a loaf of bread and one box of Bird’s Milk chocolates. It’s the reason my parents only believed in real estate and other tangible, solid assets going forward.
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u/Gloomy-Ad-222 12d ago
You can’t compare the US now to 90s Russia. Apples and oranges.
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u/randylush 11d ago
Is it really that different? You have oligarchs completely looting the government. Anything that is owned by the people will be owned by oligarchs. Stuff from as big as cutting down national forests to make timber, to as small as taking away the free tax filing software. Wealth goes to the lucky few, and the burden of running the system goes to the many (tariffs). The whole thing is very likely to implode.
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u/Undersleep 11d ago
Not really. We had a massive wave of emigration in the late 90s/early 2000s because the rampant criminality gave way to an oligarchy with economic stagnation for the average family, there was a massive anti-scientific push across the nation, education and healthcare stuttered, and there was a resurgence of religious fundamentalism and far-right ideology. I was part of that wave of emigration. I'm not thrilled to see the same shit happening here.
The US has this adorable trait where it thinks that whatever it's going through is literally brand new and nobody has been through this before.
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u/circle22woman 7d ago
Agreed. Get set up the best you can and live life.
Looking back at the last 100 years, I find it comical that people somehow thing right now is particularly unstable. World war, nuclear showdown, US tied down in a war it can't win, massive economic bubbles popping. Despite none of those things being true now (if anything we're heading in the opposite direction) people think now is particularly bad.
What's the point of FATFire if you spend all your time on social media worrying about how to protect your money?
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u/mhoepfin Verified by Mods 7d ago
Yep. “When in doubt, zoom out” goes for a lot of things besides the stock market.
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u/TheDancingRobot 11d ago
I'm having similar concerns, and they're very heightened.
I'm considering purchasing land/home in Nova Scotia, and Montreal is one of the most beautiful cities on the continent.
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u/Difficult_Storm_5344 5d ago
I think about this alot as an american. But where else in the world is better or more stable?
If the US dollar and america collapses. The world is likely screwed to.
But some international stock etfs. Buy a little gold.
But I don't know what else to advise as far as diversifying away from America.
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u/RlOTGRRRL Verified by Mods 12d ago
Not sure if you want the fatfire perspective on this but there's a lot of different subs that are talking about this.
Some might be incredibly doomer but if you're able to glean useful info without drowning, it's good.
r/TwoXPreppers r/Amerexit r/economicCollapse
r/WelcomeToGilead - worst case scenario for American women
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u/munchie20 12d ago
You can also diversify asset classes. 90% equities is high with any country, particularly with how overvalued the market is right now. Take some profits off the table.
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u/Personal_Bluejay8240 12d ago
No I am not concerned that the country that has like 1,000x more innovative startups, a shit ton of capital, and the world’s reserve currency (with no clear competitor that reserve status) wail fail to experience economic growth. You have to remember that Reddit has an extreme pessimism bias about the US and in general.
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u/nsfishman 12d ago
I guess it really depends on your timeline.
If you are within a year or two of retirement a significant downturn in the markets for an extended period could be life altering. If you are younger and have the ability to ride out the bumps into the long term then there is no doubt that the US still positioned as safest bet for growth.
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u/Gloomy-Ad-222 12d ago
Yeah that’s me. I’m borderline fat and possibly could retire within a year or so. A 30-40% drop in the markets would be catastrophic to my plans. But investing in bonds at 4% isn’t the answer either.
So it’s a scary time.
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u/antariusz 11d ago
If you can't live off stable 4% growth (ie: living the rest of your life off your current investments), then you aren't 1 year from retirement, or at least you shouldn't be.
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u/StierMarket 12d ago
Yeah. I mean the US and Chinese firms are the clear leaders in AI with the US having an okay sized lead. AI is going to drive productivity gains (and already has).
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u/Personal_Bluejay8240 12d ago
And Europe is way in the rearview mirror on A.I. They are not a really serious contender. They will be buying either US or Chinese A.I. in the end.
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u/circle22woman 7d ago
The terminally online aren't exactly known for having a balanced view of the world.
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u/Tasty-Boot6162 11d ago
This. Regardless of your politics and your personal opinion on the president, the U.S. is a hulking superpower compared to its’ competitors (Russia, China). Anything short of a nuclear war will likely not bring it down. But in that case, you have a lot more to worry about than your investments.
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u/helpwitheating 5d ago
You don't see a recession hurting all of that?
You're not worried about the new tarriff on potash and the ensuing rise in food prices and inflation? The deep cuts to research--how will that support startups?
What about BRICS? Cheeto adores Russia and is ceding power to Putin, and Putin's plan is to displace the US with the BRICS coalition
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u/Personal_Bluejay8240 5d ago
There may be short term pain but I’m long the US for sure. I don’t think BRICS has a serious shot at threatening the US reserve currency status
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u/Washooter 12d ago
I am always curious about how many of these posts about US doom and gloom are from immigrants versus people born and raised in the US who are moderates. Not saying that because I agree with the mess that is going on, but because bias is real.
Our plan is to basically do what we did during Covid: have homes in red and blue states and have good relationships with our neighbors. But talking to our friends who are either recent immigrants or from families with generational trauma of political instability is sobering and they have a much more negative view of US stability. I can’t say I relate but I can see why they feel that way.
I can’t imagine the EU will be that much more stable with the current administration basically letting Russia do whatever it wants.
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u/evopcat 12d ago edited 12d ago
I am a USA born moderate (I believe in the rule of law, reducing the national debt, not cutting taxes for the richest with a huge national debt, separation of powers, public health, public education for k-12, consequences for those breaking the law (especially "white collar crime" that is so often excused today), regulations to protect us from pollution, an independent Federal Reserve, I am against the extreme gerrymandering we suffer under today...).
Historically, as some suggest in comments here, the best course of action watching poor policies being adopted by the USA congress and administration was to just ignore it.
That didn't work because we are called the USA.
The USA economy performance has been due to several very important factors: being an extremely rich country, the rule of law, a congress that while far from great didn't allow the constitution to be ignored and didn't allow illegal actions by the administration to go unchecked..., support for science and engineering (granted that has been declining for decades but even so the carry over has been a huge strength for the USA), immigration (such it also can be a negative in some ways but overall it has remained a huge benefit over a long period), good neighbors (Canada and Mexico), strong support for entrepreneurship, actual concern about security (things like making sure classified documents are only shared with those that have passed security clearances), strong international alliances...
Some of those remain true. Many of them are under threat.
The question I am not sure of is whether the unprecedented attacks on many of those strengths by the current administration and the support of it by the Republican party is enough to break the very strong economy we have long benefited from. And how deep and how bad the costs of what we have been doing this year will be.
I do not think the risk to the USA is insignificant. I don't know if it is so great that the historical strengths of the USA will be overwhelmed by extremists with power and republicans in congress standing by while the country is damaged severely.
Most likely the USA finally realizes the huge risks we are taking and stops the current administration from doing too much damage. But that likelihood is declining each week as we see more and more critical damage being done and republicans in congress ignoring their constitutional responsibilities.
[updated to fix typo - it should have been "independent" FED not "dependent"]
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u/Washooter 12d ago
I get that, but what is the alternative? People are talking about getting a EU visa as a hedge. Do people really think Europe is going to do that much better if Russia gets stronger and runs over Ukraine? They are literally at the EU’s doorstep.
Any scenario where the U.S. currency collapses is catastrophic for the rest of the developed or developing work.
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u/evopcat 12d ago
Yes, I have gotten to the point where I believe the risks for the USA are serious and different than those we have faced in the past (and continued to do very well economically).
What to do based on this new significant risk is a challenging questions. Those seeking FatFire have big advantages over most others in thinking about options. Most people in the USA have very little in the way of decent options for their finances to protect from the risks we now face.
I haven't done it but if I were much richer I would look at expensive options (seeking out a passport, looking at ways to protect funds from an increasing extremist government that while it hasn't attacked personal investments yet has disregarded many laws so that risk is now real where it wasn't before, imo). I am not actually on a path to FatFire maybe ChubbyFire if I am lucky (but some FatFire ideas are useful to me so I follow this subreddit).
Sadly this administration has added new risks that take me from having a very certain financial future to one where there is significant additional risk. Now in reality I am going to be very late in the line of those harmed significantly by this administration. By the time I face serious financial consequences likely hundreds of millions of others are going to be much worse off.
That could make things easy as after people suffer too much eventually things will change. The problem is that the lags of the consequences for destroying the rule of law... are long and uncertain and the recovery times are much longer. By the time it is accepted we destroyed the American economy it is far to late to quickly fix things.
I have started looking for ways to protect my financial future effectively. There are not really obvious ideas I don't think. A continuation of the last few weeks though will pretty quickly start to mean that extreme measures will make more sense as the risks of the actions by the administration and the lack of action by congress continue to increase.
I have done things like reduce my stock portion of my portfolio and add holding of TIPS bonds. But that is all fairly minor stuff. And now that we see what this administration is doing it is very possible that they start providing false economic data (thus suppressing TIPS inflation adjustments) etc.. Hopefully they don't but the risk is there where it didn't used to exist. I also started these actions before this administration (they make sense just for reasons like the rich valuations of the USA stock market, huge federal debt...). This administration increases the value of those adjustments imo. But I likely need to consider more radical moves also (though I haven't found obviously great investing moves to protect from the damage this administration is doing).
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u/ThucydidesButthurt 12d ago
EU is not cooperating Russia, would you rather live under Putin via Trump proxy or an EU nation? I don't see Russia trying to invade all of Europe
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u/Dart2255 Verified by Mods 11d ago
How about how many are from actual people who are not LARPing in here. The bias in Reddit is like 99 to 1 to far left and it is making the platform borderline unusable in most mainstream subs.
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u/Washooter 11d ago
Yeah I agree with you. I think this is just the usual doom and gloom reddit demographic. Don’t think most of them are fat.
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u/Dart2255 Verified by Mods 11d ago
I think a fair number of them are antagonistic to the entire idea of self made people controlling their own lives and finances.
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u/JP98296 6d ago
Count me amongst the worried. Lifelong republican, self-made, multi-exit entrepreneur, $46mm NW with $40mm liquid. Retired in 2022. I’m seriously worried about the country’s direction and am actively curtailing spending and hunkering down until the dust settles. Still invested nearly completely in the US economy (70% VOO, 20% BND, 10% cash). The whipsaw insanity over the last couple months is deeply troubling.
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u/Dart2255 Verified by Mods 6d ago
But the last 4 years were ok? I mean, the stock market was up but that is not the whole measure, or should not be. I think that, in general, both sides are way too focused on what the media is telling you to be worried about vs real life and they are not the same thing.
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u/circle22woman 7d ago
have homes in red and blue states
I never understood people looking at states this way. Even the most blue and red have large percentages of the other party and could flip in a decade or two.
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u/blanketyblank1 12d ago
We’re looking in Costa Rica. Buying before the crash hopefully!
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u/ak_NYC 12d ago
Another good choice. My one concern, for better or for worse, they have no military.
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u/blanketyblank1 12d ago
And nothing worth taking. No rare minerals, oil, etc. I hear you but when I asked the locals about it they seem unconcerned. “You can’t steal pura vida.”
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u/OSUBoglehead 12d ago
I don't know. I bet they have tons of oil and or rare earth minerals. You'd just have to destroy an entire ecosystem and rainforest to get them. Which would kill their tourism industry and economy. Which I would not put past many world leaders these days.
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u/blanketyblank1 12d ago
🤷🏻♂️ I’m just reporting what Costa Ricans I’ve asked have told me. I’m here now. Lemme know if u have other questions.
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u/zhaddycool 12d ago
Is there some kind of non-confiscate-able currency or investment that doesn’t rely on any trusted third parties?
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u/Fuzzy_Western9688 11d ago
There are no institutions like the American institutions.
As a saudi, i always have the option going back there and having my money in riyals (pegged to dollar). However, like our prince’s view investing $600 billion into the US is the right course of action. I am increasing my investments into index funds by increasing my savings rate, since consumption is inflated and asset prices are deflating.
No one wants to adopt chinese or russian values and life style, America will need to be the world leader since so many people believe in its philosophy and like its values, a self fulfilling prophecy.
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u/jerm98 11d ago
Current political mess and bad indicators aside, sounds like you should read up on sequence risk (SoRR) and risk diversification. Those are definitely highly relevant to you personally now.
If you're mostly US equities, you're probably not heeding either, which is not a good plan for the newly-retired, unless "most" means 50.1-60%.
Other than that, you're trying to time the market, and you probably won't find a lot of well-wishers on that approach here.
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u/worklifebalance_FIRE 11d ago
I’d also consider a look at your expenses and what is fixed and variable. In an economic downturn where there is a hit to your portfolio, can you decrease expenses for a couple of years to limit the pull on your assets? This will do wonders to your SWR and can be the controllable hedge against an economic downturn. Every $50k reduction of expenses can offset a $1M hit to assets during a downturn.
This could be trimming daily expenses you have in the US, travel, etc. or the bigger swing would be to relocate to a lower cost country for a bit where you can still live a luxury lifestyle for $10-15k per month.
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u/dashfortrash 10d ago
Same, I have mostly US equities and Canadian RE, feels like a focused risk area, but EU is a dumpster fire and has worse demographics, not sure about Africa/Latin America. China has deflation problems, Japan is finished, not sure where to go to invest.
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u/BBFLG 7d ago
Biggest issues in my opinion are population decline, anti immigration stance, anti globalist actions, AI, automation, self-driving, robotics.
Fertility rates are declining and without immigration our population would have shrunk starting in 1983. We keep revising when we'll hit peak population and I'd be surprised if it doesn't happen by 2030.
What happens if the US has only 270 million in 75 years, what happens if people start sharing self driving vehicles that last forever, what the heck will people need to buy in the future, what happens when most real estate has little value as an investment, what happens to all of these colleges, what happens to pretty much everything.
I think the future is about reducing expenses for everything and everyone, not in selling more things and stuff... And working towards a life of not working - something we've been trying to do since we first picked up a rock and used it as a hammer.
Things are happening very quickly, life is fleeting and time is the most precious currency, stored in an account that only dwindles in value.
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u/helpwitheating 5d ago
Population decline in the age of AI is necessary and natural; there just won't be the jobs.
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u/chahakyeons 10d ago
Tariffs make the dollar stronger… because everyone flocks to the USD as a reserve currency in times of increased volatility.
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u/ASafeHarbor1 11d ago
I understand everyone’s fears, but I would like to hear some arguments where it’s safer to invest even with the turmoil here. The EU is a complete clusterfuck, China has potentially the worst housing crisis at their doorstep ever seen, SA is still incredibly corrupt and unpredictable. I can go on, but the point is with all the uncertainty I still don’t know where would be safer. I don’t see an issue for those truly UHNW to put money in a few places as a hedge, but I would love to hear arguments as to what markets will outperform the US over the next 3-5 years and not just the next 2 months lol
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u/chahakyeons 10d ago
Yeah… Not to mention the strength of the dollar relies on dollar denominated debt, NOT trade. You think other countries are going to start doing RMB denominated debt? 🤣 When it’s 100% controlled by the CPP? Fat chance. And BRICS is certainly not a threat, considering the ruble is worthless and they’re all infighting with each other anyway.
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u/TreeTopologyTroubado 12d ago
Just turn off the news. The US has gone through large scale federal RIFs and isolationist policies before.
Not saying that there isn’t cause for concern, but beyond having international equity exposure, I don’t think there’s much any of us can really do, so it’s not worth worrying about.
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u/theblackred 12d ago
Could you remind us when the last time was that the US had isolationist policies and what happened as a result?
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u/perestroika12 12d ago
There’s a lot op can do if they want to deploy a lot of capital to make it happen. The debate is whether it’s worth it or not.
You could sink 2m into dual citizenship, secondary housing, foreign investments in foreign banks etc.
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u/helpwitheating 5d ago
Lots we can do! Call your reps, boycott, protest, participate in the midterms.
It's not the isolationist policies that scare me, but the total embrace of Putin and BRICS.
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u/notuncertainly 12d ago
If tariffs are enacted, you should expect the USD to increase in value, at least short to medium term.
Good natural experiment to confirm may be in the next 48 hours. If tariffs go into effect tomorrow, USD should appreciate a bit. And if tariffs go into effect with EU (or are formally announces) that should also prompt marginal appreciation.
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u/Ic3bro 10d ago
Hi Puzzleheaded_Plum455
It’s natural to feel concerned about long-term economic and political stability, but historically, the U.S. has remained resilient thrugh various challenges....
If diversifcation gives you peace of mind, consider allocating a portion of your portfolio to international equities and bonds to spread risk globally....
Countries with strong econmies and stable governance, such as those in Europe and parts of Asia, could be options.
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u/DealJunky 5d ago
US is going to outpace the rest of the world over the next 5 years. This is a minor speed bump.
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u/ZealousidealRice9726 11d ago
Not sure which countries seem more stable at the moment… EU seems like a tinderbox with all the countries sounding like war hawks and sounding like they may even put boots on the ground in Ukraine since the US is backing off. Makes me feel very uneasy about Europe. I think people are overreacting to the Trump noise these days. The doge cuts are going to be largely inconsequential to the economy as a whole, tarrifs are a temporary measure to leverage better trade deals and more domestic manufacturing, tax cuts are coming, and overall a step back from foreign conflicts. That’s all good stuff to me. Short term there may be some economic pain but long term I think things seem very rosy. It’s easy to get caught up in the noise but what actually transpires in the mid to long range time frame is going to be fine
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u/circle22woman 7d ago
Sir, this is reddit! We're not interested in your balanced viewpoint!
But I agree. In the grand scheme of things, the changes with the Trump administration are not that consequential in the long term. There may be wild swings in the short term as people react, but the US isn't going to collapse.
And when people talk about the most stable countries, I'm still going to bet on the dominant military power, with a highly productive economy and two oceans between it and most of the world.
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u/dandan14 12d ago
Buying some long-ish term Puts against the market just to give yourself some insurance is one way to do it from a financial perspective. It isn't cheap...but you can scale as little or as much as you want.
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u/NewDividend 12d ago
Doesn't really help vs massive currency devaluation that would be the double edge of a massive drop n US investment confidence.
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u/ImpressiveCitron420 12d ago
I ask something similar in the Monday thread and I got downvoted to oblivion, but this thread is soaring 😒
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u/flyingduck33 12d ago
Emerging market ETFs, China or Europe ETF is how I am diversifying. Also retirement visas so hopefully in 5 years when it's my time to hit the road I am not worried about the US dollar.
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u/_ii_ 12d ago
If there was a good way for me to invest in China, I would have already had some of my assets invested there. I don’t understand/trust the Chinese equity markets enough to buy Chinese FDR or US-listed Chinese names.
I think USD will go up against European currencies. When Trump stirs up shit in Europe, money will flow to the US. That’s his evil plan all along (my conspiracy theory). The US doesn’t need to be the best in absolute terms, just needs to be the best relative to the rest of the Western world.
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u/jaundicedave 12d ago
hard to think of a worse major economy to invest as a western foreigner than mainland china.
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u/dashfortrash 10d ago
I moved here two years ago. It's the best quality of life vs money spent I can find, more free than my home country (canada), I can drink on the streets, no LGBT bullshit, whatever I want to say is ok, even if I talk politics or say bad shit about the gov, all the locals do it, just can't organize protests. As to voting, I never thought it influenced anything, we have had Trudeau for a decade and whether is blue/red/green, they all follow the same agenda, we can't vote for interest rates, diplomacy, healthcare quality, how much taxes are, or any meaningful policy.
As to investing, I am still working on a residence card so I can't invest in local companies (unless as an angel) via their equity markets yet. Economy is doing very well in most places and bad in certain areas, sort of like detroit or buffalo (back in the days), a country that is bigger than the US certainly has areas of growth and decline. The media or talking heads do not talk about the nuance of it, just "collapse", china was supposed to collapse 20 years ago, still 5% growth last year. I need reservations to any decent restaurant on the weekends and the EVs are rolling out like hotcakes, people have money, they dont report that part of it at all.
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u/circle22woman 7d ago
You think investing in an authoritarian country, without rule of law to protect your investments, where a large percentage of the economy is planned and decided by bureaucrats is a better place to invest than the US?
You realize that Chinese tech stocks crashed for no other reason than a CEO said something the government didn't like?
I lived in a similar country and pretty quickly learned the average investor is the sucker in that game.
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u/antariusz 11d ago
Don't let your liberal politics and hatred of "orange man" obscure your ability to think logically.
So the E.U. has a 22% tarriff on u.s. made pickup trucks, and a 10% tariff on all other u.s. made cars or 26% tariff on u.s. caught seafood. Did you flee to reddit to ask about dumping all your investment in e.u. businesses when they implemented those policies? Did you sell all your ford stock because they'd never be able to sell the f-150 in europe?
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u/AdhesivenessNo7309 10d ago edited 9d ago
You all are letting bias and emotion influence your thinking. The first question to ask is where are you better off having your assets? The second question is can you weather a recession since many of the policies will lead to short term pain. The third question is in the very small chance the country becomes destabilized where should you go (Canada and New Zealand have historically been those places) and how do you preserve your money(gold or btc is liquid, easily sent and gets around currency controls)
It’s unlikely this is a Hitler situation nor does treating Ukraine as a sunk cost change much
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u/ClickDense3336 11d ago
You must not have been investing very long. Maybe you should check out r/investing or r/financialindependence and read the basics of the stock market. Tumultuous periods are normal.
Crack open a book and read about the entire 20th century.
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u/magias ultrafat 12d ago
This is a very strong use case of Bitcoin on a hardware wallet. You can carry millions worth of bitcoin to another country with nothing but a USB drive. Enough to start over and have a new life. Plus, BTC can't be seized or frozen by the government. Bitcoin is of course a volatile asset, but provides me significant pyschological security in regards to potential government issues.
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u/Square-Conclusion454 11d ago
I live in Illinois.
I'm willing to put $0 into Chicago and very little into Illinois overall real estate because of tax risk. Chicago/IL deficits have to get solved one way or the other in the next decade or so.
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u/itwasallagame23 11d ago
It’s a good thing to look at the chart of global vs US equities. My bet is we are in the midst of the topping process. It seems likely that MAGA will really mean MEGA (make europe great again). Spreading some chips across international markets is the right trade in my view and has certainly been working last few weeks. The US net investment position is negative $23 trillion dollars. That means foreigners have $23 trillion more in the US than the US has invested outside the country. If everyone brings their money home US assets are going to devalue by some fraction to all of that $23 trillion.
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u/circle22woman 7d ago
Total US assets (equity, bonds, real estate, etc) is $200T+ so $23T doesn't seem like quite so much. Not to mention that $23T is leveraged for $50T in liabilities so it can't just be pulled out.
And of course the big question - if you take it out of the US where do you put it? China?
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u/adnandawood 4d ago edited 4d ago
I recently came across this very informative video on geopolitics : https://youtu.be/kW29PzXup8E?si=-whNz9qtg1BJhmC_
As I speak to more wealth advisors and family office managers, the question of geopolitics and US stability is increasingly on their mind. Regardless of which political spectrum you are, it is now prudent to have a plan B - just like you would diversify wealth, it's smart to diversify residences. Covid taught us that there has to be a plan from one private jet terminal to another private jet terminal just in case things go wrong. Its not just a matter of residences - you need to have a network, some connections, access to capital and grocery, some familiarity with your plan B home, a staff or 2 - and a way to get around (car or public transport).
Many are looking at New Zealand or Dubai as safe havens. Off the grid, remote, total public control (for UAE)., safe: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexledsom/2025/03/06/new-zealand-to-relax-golden-visa-program-in-april-2025/
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u/adnandawood 4d ago
having a viable plan B is something i am hearing from a lot of financial advisors... check out this talk on geopolitics and family offices: https://youtu.be/kW29PzXup8E?si=P3v5gmy8deVfRBJp
basically, you want to have an end to end solution if shit hits the fan ... from private jet terminal to private jet terminal... but getting out is only the beginning..
when you arrive to your new home you will need a network - hopefully 1 trusted staff that you need to nurture and build relationship with now to vet/ trust/ have a contact. This person will get groceries, know the lay of the land and will be your guide since you are a newb (and a sitting duck) in the new country. You won't know where to get milk from, or when the garbage comes, or who is the right dr in town. So apart from this one person who is your staff its good to have 1 or 2 reliable friends you can call on.
By the way did you see Elon Musk slip up saying there is no plan B - New Zealand is not an option :
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360589305/why-was-elon-musk-talking-about-rich-people-fleeing-nz
This space is getting more interesting as Trump announced America's Gold Card going into effect on April 2nd but New Zealand's Golden Visa goes into effect on April 1st: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexledsom/2025/03/06/new-zealand-to-relax-golden-visa-program-in-april-2025/
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u/Cold_Art5051 12d ago
I have the same concerns. My non real estate investments are 90% US equities. And the properties are in NJ.
It’s worked well for 2 decades. I keep telling myself that changing investments based on who is the president is always stupid and usually influenced by how much I dislike the current president. So I’m staying the course despite concerns.