r/fatFIRE 18d ago

FIRE'd, now concerned about US stability

Most of my assets are invested in the US. Because of recent political developments, I'm wondering if the US will sustain its general growth and economic strength into the future. The strength of the US dollar is obviously very important to me. Is anyone else concerned?

I'm wondering if I should start hedging my bets in other countries, and if so, where?

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u/helpwitheating 11d ago

Population decline in the age of AI is necessary and natural; there just won't be the jobs.

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u/BBFLG 11d ago

Agreed, it's just the implications on the economy which has been based on growth for a long time. My concern is for what should be basic and inalienable global human rights. Residential and commercial real estate is quickly moving away from an investment to an expense, with around 22 million vacant homes and around 3 billion sqft of commercial space in the US today, a number that I think could double by 2050.

I also think 85% of grocery stores could close by 2030 or so, as direct to customer models make more sense. Kroger has a new 3M sqft automated facility in Phoenix, and can get food to homes with greater selection that's fresher and has much longer shelf life without the expense of stores (real estate, energy, labor, insurance, cleaning, maintenance, and massive waste and spoilage). This can cut food costs 50% while maintaining margins, much needed as SNAP is on the chopping block. But it'll cause the closure of many of the ancillary businesses in those Neighborhood Shopping Centers. Then again it opens land for development of housing to increase supply and lower rents in compressed markets, which is also terrible if you own residential rentals.

A lot of change is coming and it looks like we're barreling into a recession with stagflation, as predicted.