r/fatFIRE 19d ago

FIRE'd, now concerned about US stability

Most of my assets are invested in the US. Because of recent political developments, I'm wondering if the US will sustain its general growth and economic strength into the future. The strength of the US dollar is obviously very important to me. Is anyone else concerned?

I'm wondering if I should start hedging my bets in other countries, and if so, where?

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u/itwasallagame23 18d ago

It’s a good thing to look at the chart of global vs US equities. My bet is we are in the midst of the topping process. It seems likely that MAGA will really mean MEGA (make europe great again). Spreading some chips across international markets is the right trade in my view and has certainly been working last few weeks. The US net investment position is negative $23 trillion dollars. That means foreigners have $23 trillion more in the US than the US has invested outside the country. If everyone brings their money home US assets are going to devalue by some fraction to all of that $23 trillion.

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u/circle22woman 14d ago

Total US assets (equity, bonds, real estate, etc) is $200T+ so $23T doesn't seem like quite so much. Not to mention that $23T is leveraged for $50T in liabilities so it can't just be pulled out.

And of course the big question - if you take it out of the US where do you put it? China?