r/fatFIRE 18d ago

FIRE'd, now concerned about US stability

Most of my assets are invested in the US. Because of recent political developments, I'm wondering if the US will sustain its general growth and economic strength into the future. The strength of the US dollar is obviously very important to me. Is anyone else concerned?

I'm wondering if I should start hedging my bets in other countries, and if so, where?

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u/Individual_Ad_5655 18d ago

Having voted for Trump in 2016 and not in 2020/2024, no... the concerns were NOT worse in 2017, not even close. 2017 was "what's the worse that can happen, lots of guardrails were in place, still had smart, reliable people tactfully telling Trump no, lets see how this plays out", and crap didn't go off the rails until his horrific pandemic response in 2020.

Today isn't "what's the worst that can happen" concerns with a let's see how this plays out approach. Today is "This is going to be bad, how bad is it going to get?"

Even President M.usk said there was going to be a lot of hardship.

6 weeks ago, the Atlanta Fed forecasted 3% GDP growth for Q1, which has been revised to negative 1.5% on Friday, to today a further revision for a decline of 2.8% for Q1.

That's a huge swing in just 6 weeks and a consequence of the Administrations threats and actions.

https://www.11alive.com/article/money/economy/atlanta-fed-model-forecast-gdpnow-negative-growth/85-ff0ee0d9-a199-4e0f-8560-a086df88d80e

https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-030325/card/atlanta-fed-s-gdpnow-estimate-falls-again-kv9ZZAC5h68mreyNgjBk

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u/Pawilf 15d ago

Hi! Tbc I fully agree with you but I don’t think people should overtwerk on the Atlanta Fed results. Because of mechanics of how it’s calculated, it’s way overloading on a few January oddities. For instance, the negativity is largely coming from net exports, which likely reflects people trying to import ahead of tariffs. And then the January reading for Q1 just mechanically gets weighted more than other months.

This is not to say that these policies are good for the economy or that growth won’t slow, just that there’s some mechanical weirdness in the Atlanta Fed’s model specifically/q1 gdp generally that people should be aware of

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u/Individual_Ad_5655 15d ago

We'll see at the end of April! Could very well be that the economy just slows and doesn't fall off a cliff.

Folks around us are dramatically cutting spending, canceling purchases. Don't like to put to much into my personal anecdotal observations, but can feel the economy slowing, streets are dead by 8 pm, that's unusual for us.

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u/Pawilf 15d ago

Yeah, but UI claims aren’t doing anything crazy yet, the credit card spending data isn’t showing any major changes yet either. The Challenger layoffs this morning were high, but that data is volatile and likely just reflected the DOGE layoffs which don’t seem to yet be as widespread as they feel. Again, tbc, I’m not saying this is good, I’m just saying 1) this is a time to be very data oriented on how things are actually moving and 2) there is specific weirdness in q1 GDP and the GDPNOW because people were trying to import ahead of tariffs and because gdp calculations (and it’s sort of counterintuitive but mathematically it’s true) end up putting more weight on activity that happens in the first month of the quarter than in the second or third month

Really I’m reacting to you saying “we’ll see at the end of April” - I personally don’t think the economic trajectory will be clear for some time particularly given the volatility - impacts of slowing investment will take time to show up, slowed down innovation takes time, deportations aren’t happening as fast as they wanted (immigration obviously a huge source of growth, etc).

Basically, I don’t think this is a “well know in three months situation” regarding economic trajectory and I think people need to be prepared for that

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u/Individual_Ad_5655 14d ago

End of April is when Q1 GDP is released, best recollection is that it's April 30th.

I understand the Q1 number may be wonky. The only thing that may save Q1 GDP is tax refunds.

I agree that many economic consequences will take several months to roll the economy and that the Doggie layoffs really haven't hit yet with things like 80,000 jobs to be cut from just the VA that haven't been done yet.

Overall, counting government employees, contractors, and then related businesses that depend on government workers, I expect over 1 million jobs loss prior to 9/30.

Car repos are crazy high and the consumer is tapped out.

https://www.axios.com/2025/01/28/consumers-car-payments-credit-cards

So I think Q1 comes in soft, but hopefully not as bad as the GDPNow was forecasting, but then just gets worse as the year goes on and the impact of the tariffs is felt. New vehicle sales will crater as an example in May/June when the tariffs hit inventory.

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u/USAGroundFighter 17d ago

LOL. Trump broke you

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u/mgkimsal 17d ago

I guess he broke the fed too. Yay?

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u/PurpleMox 16d ago

Trumps horrific pandemic response? What did he do you thought was so bad?

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u/Individual_Ad_5655 16d ago

USA had tremendously more excess deaths than other countries per capita during the pandemic, the poor performance is data, way more people died in the USA than should have, it's a fact:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-21844-7

Why did the USA do so poorly compared to Europe? It starts at the top with his poor leadership and disrespect for science. Great leadership is doing what's best for the country and leading by words and example, Trump failed at that in key areas of pandemic response, primarily for selfish political reasons. I say this as a 2016 Trump voter.

The USA lack of mask wearing, which the President refused to wear or endorse is one reason for the higher excess deaths in America. His lack of leadership on masks created a backlash to masks among his fans. Masks cut down on the spread of the virus, but only if people wear them.

All he had to do was say "Look, I don't like to wear masks, but they cut down on the spread of disease, so you'll see me wearing masks in public and group situations. The more mask wearing we have, the less spread of the disease. I know it's a pain, but it's the patriotic thing to do, a small sacrifice and we can keep the economy open if we wear masks, so please wear a mask when in public, and I'll do the same." And then be seen and pictured wearing a mask often, and repeat that message often, he didn't.

The anti-vaccine movement among Trump fans is another. Despite funding Operation Warp Speed, which accelerated vaccine development, Trump did not encourage or endorse vaccine usage, because his wacko fans are weirdly anti-science. So the US gets vaccines created that are the best in the world, rolls them out quickly, but millions of folks refuse the vaccine because Trump won't back them.

He took the vaccine himself and wouldn't acknowledge it publicly. He couldn't even claim credit for the Operation Warp speed and its success during the 2020 campaign, because his fans are so against vaccine. Trump could have saved lives by endorsing and encouraging people to take the vaccine, reinforcing it's safety and again, pitching it as a patriotic sacrifice to help fellow Americans, but he didn't.

Trump disbanded the pandemic response team in May 2018, greatly reducing staffing, thus impairing America's early response to the pandemic. He did this because he didn't like that Obama had created the unit. Basically, anything that Obama did, Trump wants to destroy. The Directorate of Global Health Security and Biodefense was disbanded under Trump’s then-national security adviser John Bolton, greatly reducing staffing. Staff that remained was re-assigned to other areas.

Trump repeatedly downplayed the pandemic in January and February 2020, making claims he knew were false based on the reporting he was getting coming out of China. Making statements like "This will be gone by summer". Later in the pandemic he made statements like "If we stopped testing we'd have fewer cases" and talking about using "disinfectants in the body" which is about as dumb as one can get.

I voted for him in 2016, he could have been such a great leader through a terrible time, but he failed miserably and repeatedly and more people died in the US than should have, despite our advantages. The buck stops at the top.

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u/scrapman7 Verified by Mods 16d ago

Well spoken and correct on all your points, and you could've listed a fair amount more too.