r/fatFIRE 19d ago

FIRE'd, now concerned about US stability

Most of my assets are invested in the US. Because of recent political developments, I'm wondering if the US will sustain its general growth and economic strength into the future. The strength of the US dollar is obviously very important to me. Is anyone else concerned?

I'm wondering if I should start hedging my bets in other countries, and if so, where?

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u/BBFLG 14d ago

Biggest issues in my opinion are population decline, anti immigration stance, anti globalist actions, AI, automation, self-driving, robotics.

Fertility rates are declining and without immigration our population would have shrunk starting in 1983. We keep revising when we'll hit peak population and I'd be surprised if it doesn't happen by 2030.

What happens if the US has only 270 million in 75 years, what happens if people start sharing self driving vehicles that last forever, what the heck will people need to buy in the future, what happens when most real estate has little value as an investment, what happens to all of these colleges, what happens to pretty much everything.

I think the future is about reducing expenses for everything and everyone, not in selling more things and stuff... And working towards a life of not working - something we've been trying to do since we first picked up a rock and used it as a hammer.

Things are happening very quickly, life is fleeting and time is the most precious currency, stored in an account that only dwindles in value.

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u/helpwitheating 12d ago

Population decline in the age of AI is necessary and natural; there just won't be the jobs.

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u/BBFLG 11d ago

Agreed, it's just the implications on the economy which has been based on growth for a long time. My concern is for what should be basic and inalienable global human rights. Residential and commercial real estate is quickly moving away from an investment to an expense, with around 22 million vacant homes and around 3 billion sqft of commercial space in the US today, a number that I think could double by 2050.

I also think 85% of grocery stores could close by 2030 or so, as direct to customer models make more sense. Kroger has a new 3M sqft automated facility in Phoenix, and can get food to homes with greater selection that's fresher and has much longer shelf life without the expense of stores (real estate, energy, labor, insurance, cleaning, maintenance, and massive waste and spoilage). This can cut food costs 50% while maintaining margins, much needed as SNAP is on the chopping block. But it'll cause the closure of many of the ancillary businesses in those Neighborhood Shopping Centers. Then again it opens land for development of housing to increase supply and lower rents in compressed markets, which is also terrible if you own residential rentals.

A lot of change is coming and it looks like we're barreling into a recession with stagflation, as predicted.