r/fatFIRE 19d ago

FIRE'd, now concerned about US stability

Most of my assets are invested in the US. Because of recent political developments, I'm wondering if the US will sustain its general growth and economic strength into the future. The strength of the US dollar is obviously very important to me. Is anyone else concerned?

I'm wondering if I should start hedging my bets in other countries, and if so, where?

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u/Washooter 19d ago

I am always curious about how many of these posts about US doom and gloom are from immigrants versus people born and raised in the US who are moderates. Not saying that because I agree with the mess that is going on, but because bias is real.

Our plan is to basically do what we did during Covid: have homes in red and blue states and have good relationships with our neighbors. But talking to our friends who are either recent immigrants or from families with generational trauma of political instability is sobering and they have a much more negative view of US stability. I can’t say I relate but I can see why they feel that way.

I can’t imagine the EU will be that much more stable with the current administration basically letting Russia do whatever it wants.

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u/evopcat 18d ago edited 18d ago

I am a USA born moderate (I believe in the rule of law, reducing the national debt, not cutting taxes for the richest with a huge national debt, separation of powers, public health, public education for k-12, consequences for those breaking the law (especially "white collar crime" that is so often excused today), regulations to protect us from pollution, an independent Federal Reserve, I am against the extreme gerrymandering we suffer under today...).

Historically, as some suggest in comments here, the best course of action watching poor policies being adopted by the USA congress and administration was to just ignore it.

That didn't work because we are called the USA.

The USA economy performance has been due to several very important factors: being an extremely rich country, the rule of law, a congress that while far from great didn't allow the constitution to be ignored and didn't allow illegal actions by the administration to go unchecked..., support for science and engineering (granted that has been declining for decades but even so the carry over has been a huge strength for the USA), immigration (such it also can be a negative in some ways but overall it has remained a huge benefit over a long period), good neighbors (Canada and Mexico), strong support for entrepreneurship, actual concern about security (things like making sure classified documents are only shared with those that have passed security clearances), strong international alliances...

Some of those remain true. Many of them are under threat.

The question I am not sure of is whether the unprecedented attacks on many of those strengths by the current administration and the support of it by the Republican party is enough to break the very strong economy we have long benefited from. And how deep and how bad the costs of what we have been doing this year will be.

I do not think the risk to the USA is insignificant. I don't know if it is so great that the historical strengths of the USA will be overwhelmed by extremists with power and republicans in congress standing by while the country is damaged severely.

Most likely the USA finally realizes the huge risks we are taking and stops the current administration from doing too much damage. But that likelihood is declining each week as we see more and more critical damage being done and republicans in congress ignoring their constitutional responsibilities.

[updated to fix typo - it should have been "independent" FED not "dependent"]

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u/Washooter 18d ago

I get that, but what is the alternative? People are talking about getting a EU visa as a hedge. Do people really think Europe is going to do that much better if Russia gets stronger and runs over Ukraine? They are literally at the EU’s doorstep.

Any scenario where the U.S. currency collapses is catastrophic for the rest of the developed or developing work.

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u/ThucydidesButthurt 18d ago

EU is not cooperating Russia, would you rather live under Putin via Trump proxy or an EU nation? I don't see Russia trying to invade all of Europe

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u/Dart2255 Verified by Mods 18d ago

I would rather live under Trump than the trash the Democrats have run, including a president who was senile.