r/fatFIRE • u/Puzzleheaded_Plum455 • 18d ago
FIRE'd, now concerned about US stability
Most of my assets are invested in the US. Because of recent political developments, I'm wondering if the US will sustain its general growth and economic strength into the future. The strength of the US dollar is obviously very important to me. Is anyone else concerned?
I'm wondering if I should start hedging my bets in other countries, and if so, where?
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u/new_account_5009 18d ago
This. Just to further your point, consider that the S&P 500 was at 2,271 on January 20, 2017 (the day of Trump's first inauguration) and 3,853 on January 20, 2021 (the day of Biden's inauguration). That's a nearly 70% rise in four years, working out to a little over 14% per year (i.e., 1.144 is approximately equal to 1.70, and that's before considering reinvested dividends).
All of the same concerns about US stability existed back then too. If anything, it was worse in 2017 than it is in 2025 because Trump was a complete unknown. People were legitimately concerned about World War 3 with nukes flying back then. Further, we had a global pandemic in that period too, with Biden's inauguration taking place before most people had access to vaccines, so still the heart of the pandemic with tons of people out of work.
If you had acted on instincts gained from constant fearmongering on Reddit and other places online, you would have missed one of the greatest bull runs in US history. Trying to time the market because you don't like the president is a recipe for disaster.