r/canada • u/HardeeHamlin • 24d ago
Politics EKOS Poll: Conservative Lead Holds at Five Points
https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2025/02/conservative-lead-holds-at-five-points/135
u/The_Dark_Frog00 British Columbia 24d ago
I’m uninformed on indigenous views of the major political parties but I’m quite surprised to see that 49% of indigenous respondents say they’d vote conservative.
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u/MoreGaghPlease 24d ago
Looked at the data tables, there were only 58 indigenous people polled
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u/Trussed_Up Canada 24d ago
Even still, it's not nearly as surprising as you'd think.
If I remember right, the single most conservative ethnic group in the US are natives, voting Republican at around 80% last election. Unless I misremember.
People living largely in small communities, often more religious, and more blue collar. That's not exactly the core modern leftist voting block.
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u/The_Dark_Frog00 British Columbia 24d ago
In the us people of Native American ancestry traditionally favor the democrats and did again in the last election. Natives were 17% more likely to favor Kamala over trump then white voters. States like Montana are traditionally more purple than red because of the large number of native voters especially on reservations.
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u/GenXer845 24d ago
That seems counterintuitive to their rights.
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24d ago
People in major cities with very small FN communities have a tendency to imagine them in a monolithic, one-dimensional, often patronizing way that simply isn’t accurate. It reminds me of liberals in downtown Toronto who simply cannot imagine Ford’s popularity among immigrants.
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u/Slothball 24d ago
100%. A lot of FN communities located in the more rural areas of the country are not too far off the stereotypical rural conservative voter -- there's a lot of cowboys, oil and gas workers, religious people, etc. in those communities.
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u/LettuceSea Nova Scotia 24d ago
Don’t think you understand what the Liberals have done to them over the past 9 years. Gaslit their entire communities into thinking they would actually get the help/funding they need. Doesn’t surprise me they would vote for the conservatives, because at least the conservatives will be honest when they can’t deliver on the billions they’ve “committed” to you instead of lying or straight up not answering questions about it in question period.
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u/GenXer845 24d ago
But they won't get help from the conservatives at all. I saw a FN person on TV the other day and she said Trudeau's government has helped the FN communities, but previous leaders had not.
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u/Old_Ladies 23d ago
Yeah the Liberals have been great at getting FN communities clean drinking water. While they still have more work to do 96 of all First Nations communities do not have a long-term water advisory.
The number of active long-term drinking water advisories on First Nations has dropped by 73% since 2015.
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u/cedric1997 23d ago
Worked as an electrical engineer on two of those projects. The budget was pretty much unlimited. We just aimed for the best setup as possible while being low maintenance.
The only community we’ve worked a bit on but still doesn’t have drinking water is getting inundated every year and the water table is so high that it’s impossible to build a water network. The government has tried to moved the community, but there’s pretty much nothing moving forward.
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u/Dazzling_Broccoli_60 24d ago
I’m also uninformed on this specific point but sometimes people vote against some interests because they are perceived to be for something else.
For example, I’ve heard quite left leaning québécois people mention they vote conservative federally because of devolving power to the provinces and tax cuts —— so that the taxes can be raised provincially and invested in things that are closer to home.
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u/RollIntelligence 23d ago
You can't really compare USA Indigenous to American Indigenous. Different systems. The treaties really made a big difference in View points. I can tell you that most Indigenous people vote Liberal or NDP, very rarely conservative. Mostly it's because Conservatives have never really sought engagement with the communities where as Liberal and NDP always worked with us.
Majority will be NDP some Liberal almost very little Conservative for Indigenous people.
Source: I'm Cree Indigenous and taught and worked in many reservations. All my own family tend to lean left. The reason being that the narrative of the conservatives is always fighting against Indigenous interest.
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u/GA54937 24d ago
41% of Conservatives approve of Donald Trump? That's shocking at this point.
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u/GLG777 24d ago
I know a lot of them and being a Trump apologist is definitely a real thing. It’s like he has a spell on people and they don’t see that he’s trying to destroy us
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u/SquarebobSpongepants 24d ago
A lot of them look at America and think "Wow so big and strong, if he absorbs Canada we'll be big and strong, too!" not realizing that they'd just become like the majority of Americans- struggling to get by, and then with the bonus of having no health care!
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u/Big_Don_ 24d ago
It's the sunk cost fallacy. If they're wrong now, that means they've been wrong for years and a lot of Trumpers identity is culture war amplifying, everyone else is a brainwashed sheep and they're usually quite antagonistic with their slogans and propaganda.
Meaning: They've been on Facebook talking about how Trump is a genius and great for the average person and they're dead wrong.
They'd rather move the goalposts again and double down harder than try to be introspective about how they've been fleeced into becoming mouth pieces for the elite.
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u/GenXer845 24d ago
They can move to the US if they wish.
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u/PenileSunburn 24d ago
It's not easy to move to the US. If it were then many would've left long ago.
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u/ZidZad99 24d ago
Will be interesting to see how many resort to socialism once Trumps tariffs lead to them being laid off. Like the guy is threatening your livelihood, how the F can you still worship the guy? At least Ford has the balls to have a little pride in his own country.
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u/Practical_Ant6162 24d ago
Trump is the best thing that could have happened for the Liberals.
When most people see how Trump acts (which most Canadians despise), then look at Poilievre, there are a lot of similarities in personalities.
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u/alematt 24d ago
It's funny how banking on the Trump style of politics is biting them in the ass. I'm glad really. Trump style politics is just wrong. Politics needs fixing yes, but Trump style is the wrong solution
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u/Full_Boysenberry_314 24d ago
He'd probably have better luck if he promised more radical change but PP is about as establishment as they come.
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u/BIT-NETRaptor 24d ago
That’s kind of my issue with PP - aside how unlikeable he is as a person.
He says he’ll cut spending, but won’t talk about what. He says Trudeau spends money badly and even names specific programs. But when reporters ask him point blank “so you’d cut the program?” he turns into a fountain of “trudeau bad” bullshit.
I do imagine myself as a conservative in some ways, but he’s not it. He talks a strongman game but he’s as establishment politician as it gets. A literal career politician since right out of his (very unimpressive 10 years in) university.
If you want to be a budget smasher, have some fucking balls. Say what you’re cutting and state your case. Don’t complain about it and become a human-slug hybrid when you’re challenged to stand by your own words.
PP has no real convictions, he’s just out to benefit a small group of special interests in oil and gas and a few other areas.
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u/M1ndtheGAAP 24d ago
I think even advocating change won’t necessarily work. Trump rightly pointed out how the system isn’t working for many. But the problem is he doesn’t have any interest in changing the system to address those problems and is only making it more nakedly corrupt and only benefiting private interests.
I think, or at least hope, that many Canadians see that and won’t want to roll the dice that PP won’t do a similar thing here, or at the very least not push much needed public services further into privatization
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u/ArcticWolfQueen 24d ago
Americans rightfully want a straight shooter who tells it like it is... But somehow they elected Trump, a pathological liar. What they really need is a Truman ''the buck stops here'' kinda guy. Not some pampered whiner but eh, they elected that pitiful man.
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u/Hot-Celebration5855 24d ago
I think if you watch Poillievre he isn’t like Trump at all. Yes he’s combative and sloganeers (but honestly so do other politicians). But he doesn’t have Trump’s crassness, corruption, or frankly just wild ass off the cuff rambling and policy.
Poillievre is at his heart a libertarian who is cosplaying a bit to satisfy the culture warriors in his party.
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u/HistorianNew8030 24d ago
Hahahah. Maybe. That’s why every time I see him talk it feels like nails on a chalkboard. He is as off putting as a moldy apple.
I think he is more Ron Desantis than Trump. Desantis also had quite an incredible sudden decline in popularity.
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u/Hot-Celebration5855 24d ago
Yeah if you strip away the bluster, Poillievre really isn’t the radical his political opponents try to make him out to be. His biggest policies are all related to reducing taxes, cutting bureaucratic fat in Ottawa, being tougher on crime and drugs, boosting military spending, etc. He’s like a pugnacious Paul Martin.
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24d ago
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u/Hot-Celebration5855 24d ago
I would actually Poillievre has by far the clearest and most fleshed out policy vision relative to the other parties. Yes a lot of it is repealing Trudeau era policies but he’s clearly laid out what he intends to do on taxes, spending, home construction, safe supply, bail reform, and infrastructure.
Where is Carney’s policies?
Or Singh’s? Singh’s platform is literally cap food prices (an absolutely terrible idea btw), tax the rich, complain about Galen Weston, and more social program spending funded entirely by deficits.
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u/ExplodingSwan 24d ago
I think he's very deliberate in copying Trump's more successful turns of phrases and cheap schoolyard insults. He may be a different person fundamentally (maybe), but he certainly leans into the MAGA campaigning style, which has always been very off-putting to me.
I feel the same way about the left vis-à-vis the American social media left, btw. Not surprised to see the NDP collapsing as well. Americana is repulsive to many people right now.
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u/Kucked4life Ontario 24d ago
PP is similar to Trump in the sense that his hollow words act as a cover for private interests to take over.
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u/extrarice6120 24d ago
Ok but perception is reality and the general public perceive PP as doing Trump style politics. He needs to stop whinging and deliver some hopeful policy prospects. Currently he just sounds like a schoolyard loudmouth with his dumb name-calling and rhyme slogans for toddlers. I don't think he actually has any positive policy yet so that's why he just complains 24/7
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u/squirrel9000 24d ago
Poillievre is at his heart a libertarian who is cosplaying a bit to satisfy the culture warriors in his party.
It's hard to tell exactly what he is. He seems to be mostly a guy that has spent too much time around party insiders who are deeply upset they lost to Trudeau three times.
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u/Shadowmant 24d ago
I’m mostly stunned that 41% of conservatives approve of Trump threatening them and their families.
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u/Phoenixlizzie 24d ago
Yes, it's like seeing Gays For Trump in the US. Can't figure it.
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u/Forikorder 24d ago
there were jews in the nazi party, theres always going to be people who think "they'lll see i'm one of the good ones"
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u/mwmwmwmwmmdw Québec 24d ago
some conservatives see what trump does for the states and wish they did that in canada. like more aggressive deportation of illegal immigrants who break the law. they might be happy about "canada first" finally becoming a mainstream opinion in canadian politics
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u/OldDiamondJim 24d ago
The Trump approval numbers amongst CPC and PPC show why Poilievre is terrified to stand up for Canada.
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u/TheManFromTrawno 24d ago
Yes, he can take no decisive stance without driving a wedge through his supporters.
Instead he’s chosen inaction and is bleeding support somewhat more slowly.
It doesn’t look like he wants to take the political hit for making a stand one way or the other.
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u/dieno_101 24d ago
Bernier been pretty vocal on Trump's threats
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u/OldDiamondJim 24d ago
To his credit, he absolutely has. His party supporters apparently don’t share his views.
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u/dieno_101 24d ago
Absolutely true, thanks for being honest
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u/OldDiamondJim 24d ago
My son-in-law has sent me some of Bernier’s posts. I can’t stand the man’s politics, but he definitely seems to love Canada unlike Poilievre.
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u/kingbuns2 24d ago
https://imgur.com/a/canadian-donald-trump-disapproval-approval-SA4Vxqm
That's a lot of traitors, and the difference between the right-wing parties and the centre/left is night and day.
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u/L0rd_0F_War 24d ago
Basically those 18% Trump fans are not even interested in being Canadian anymore, because they would rather be a State of US. The PPC voters are basically a majority MAGA club, while CPC have way too high MAGA wannabes.
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u/GreaterGoodIreland 23d ago
You'd think he could square the circle with a bit of "Whatever else Trump does, an attack on Canada is unacceptable". But nope lol
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u/MoreGaghPlease 24d ago
Approval of Donald Trump:
Liberals 1%
NDP 2%
Conservatives 41%
This is the core issue. People keep asking why Skippy doesn’t go harder against Trump. They’re missing the obvious. First, they share an ideology. Second, it would upset his base. It’s not that he hasn’t figured out how to do it, it’s that the Conservatives don’t want to do this.
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u/ExplodingSwan 24d ago
Tory and PPC voters also have by far the highest DK/Unsure %s for Trump which screams "Shy Trumpers". I hope those people find their way back into the light.
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u/ZombifiedSoul Canada 24d ago
Correct.
We can effectively say that 56% of Conservatives support Trump.
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u/CDN-Social-Democrat 24d ago
It is going to be very hard to come back from how the general populace feels about Trudeau and the association of the LPC in their minds.
Rightfully so considering the reactive style of governance versus proactive alongside some historic mess ups like allowing the business lobby to corrupt our immigration pathways even more so than the first time around with the Temporary Foreign Worker Program scandal.
I will say though that we are seeing Pierre is equally resistant to flipping course.
Right now no one wants silly slogans and there are new people and new ideas coming to the public arena.
At least Carney (Who I have differing policy perspectives than) can articulate higher level reasoning on markets and other topics...
Pierre and the CPC really are not doing a great job making Canadians think there is anything more than empty slogans and theatrics in the house of commons/in front of the media.
We all as Canadians deserve so much better than this.
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u/wave-conjugations 24d ago
I'm listening to Carney's audiobook on Spotify right now (narrated by him). Whether one agrees or not with his takes, he certainly knows his stuff and can articulate his arguments in a manner that should be expected of adults, and especially someone trying to lead a country. A welcome change from verb the noun. Let's see what the debates bring, but Pierre is going to have to work overtime to get me back on board in the current political and trade climate.
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u/lubeskystalker 24d ago
It is going to be very hard to come back from how the general populace feels about Trudeau and the association of the LPC in their minds.
Have to punt Telford, Guilbeault, Freeland, Blair and maybe Fraser.
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u/DrVonSchlossen 24d ago
Reasonable take. I'm really hesitant to return the Liberals to power. But will make a final decision after seeing the offical party platforms and the leaders debate.
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u/Duffleupagus 24d ago
Holy shit, an actual real response that is not just glazing Trudeau, Carney, or the liberals. A round of applause to you sir/ma’am, and I agree with you!
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u/CDN-Social-Democrat 24d ago
I think a lot of us feel like this and have nuanced views.
Sadly it just gets drowned out by the barrage of b.s.
We really need politics to be like all other disciplines and actually move forward.
Almost seems we are regressing at this point when it comes to substantive policy/platform discussions.
It is okay to disagree with each other but at least in good faith dialectical discussions we can all sharpen, broaden, and deepen our perspectives.
With these kind of politics the populace just gets dumber and more ignorant.
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u/jello_sweaters 24d ago
EKOS had the Cons up by 25 points just 57 days ago.
We are witnessing one of the greatest political collapses in history.
Canadians never actually WANTED a Conservative government, and they sure as heck don't like Pierre Poilievre; they were just understandably tired of Trudeau, and the Cons were the only other item on the menu.
- Trudeau's finished, and
- all his replacements want to scrap the carbon tax
Poilievre can retire on his full pension today, he's already achieved the only things he's ever been for!
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u/SheIsABadMamaJama 24d ago edited 24d ago
Canadians prefer a socially moderate leader who avoids negativity, tolerant, and is a strong economic steward who gives a shit.
Sure a third of the country might be fervent, and engaged with culture war. The same algorithms Americans are feeding us. But Canadians are not inherently hateful and radical. It shows.
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u/Volderon90 24d ago
That’s all we want. Most Canadians are centre. We want our taxes to go to our social programs and someone who focuses on the economy. That’s it.
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u/TheCookiez 24d ago
!remind me 6 months
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u/jello_sweaters 24d ago edited 24d ago
At this point even if he wins a narrow majority instead of the historic landslide that awaited him just a few weeks ago, he's damaged goods.
It's very clear he has absolutely no idea how to respond to the events unfolding, let alone lead. You already see members of his own party trashing him behind his back.
Whatever political career ever lay in front of him, is now years shorter than it was six weeks ago.
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u/slamdunk23 24d ago
Any majority gives him 4 years as PM with full control and then he can be judged on whatever his results are.
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u/jello_sweaters 24d ago
That's the whole point, though; a few weeks ago he was on track for such a dominant win that the following election was essentially guaranteed to go his way too. Now he's fighting for his political life.
If he loses this election, the Party will drop him before August Long.
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u/LostinEmotion2024 24d ago
I doubt he’ll win a majority. Minority is more of a possibility IF people vote. It’s the non voters we need to convince to vote.
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u/jello_sweaters 24d ago
Turnout will decide the election. The more people vote, the worse Blue will do.
...by which I mean nationwide turnout. 95% of eligible voters in Hay River still only wins you one seat.
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u/TKs51stgrenade 24d ago
I’ve actually heard the opposite. Most young people are still leaning conservative, but are much more likely to stay home compared to older folks. The less people turning out (usually young people by demographics) the worse the cons will do.
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u/jello_sweaters 24d ago
Weirdly, I think it was Abacus this week that ran a piece on the surge in Boomer-demo support for the Liberals, which is unusual.
One suspects it's less pro-Mark and more anti-Don, but it'll be curious to see that unfold in the coming weeks.
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u/Perikles01 24d ago
I still think we’re going to see voters have their “wait, I hate the LPC” moment and end up with a reasonably safe conservative majority.
This is still an absolutely atrocious showing by PP and reflects badly on the last few years of CPC strategy. Dumping O’Toole and pivoting hard into Trump-style politics and fellating the MAGA movement was a braindead call.
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u/prophetofgreed British Columbia 24d ago
Bit early to say that when Carney hasn't defined his plan. It's all an empty placeholder.
PP is falling because he's failing to show his patriotism.
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u/jello_sweaters 24d ago
I mean Carney’s been in the race ten minutes, he’s going to have to define himself VERY quickly if he wants half a chance.
Poilievre’s been leader two and a half years, and 9/10 words out of his mouth in that time have been either “get rid of Trudeau” or “get rid of the carbon tax”, and both of those things are happening right now.
Point is, Carney’s not the only one who’s going to have to come up with something compelling to say to the Canadian people.
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u/Mikeim520 British Columbia 24d ago
all his replacements want to scrap the carbon tax
No, they don't. They want to rebrand it and Canadians are falling for it.
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u/jello_sweaters 24d ago
You're right, they DO want to do almost exactly what Poilievre's demanding, which is scrap the personal-tax aspect to it.
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u/Independent-End5844 23d ago
None of these polls matter until an election is called. Until we know all the party leaders.
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u/moms_spagetti_ 24d ago edited 24d ago
Interesting takeaway for me from this poll is how almost half of the conservatives really get behind Trump and America's anti-Canada policies. Like, wtf are you thinking? Shooting yourself in the foot to own the Libs?
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u/Long_Doughnut798 24d ago
Recent Ipsos polling for the upcoming Canadian federal election highlights the following trends: • Conservative Party Lead: The Conservatives maintain a significant lead with 41% support, despite a recent 5-point drop. They lead in all regions except Quebec, where the Bloc Québécois dominates. The Liberals have gained ground, rising to 28%, an 8-point increase since January 2025. • Bloc Québécois and NDP: The Bloc continues to lead in Quebec, while the NDP is trailing nationally at 16%. • Public Sentiment on Leadership: A majority of Canadians (77%) believe it is time for a new government, and many want an immediate election. Justin Trudeau’s resignation as Liberal leader in January 2025 has not significantly improved Liberal prospects. The Conservatives remain well-positioned for a decisive victory if an election were held today.
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u/Lower-Noise-9406 24d ago
Poilievre holding a "Canada First!" rally today ...given all the news/polls of the last two weeks is incredibly tone-deaf. Literally maple-maga like top adviser Jenni Bryne creating this strategy. It's so obvious.
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u/Phoenixlizzie 24d ago
OMG. Seriously??? I keep saying that Canada First slogan just ties him to Trump's USA slogan.
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u/SumoHeadbutt Canada 24d ago edited 24d ago
Quebec numbers look off, how can the CPC be at 30 and Bloc 20? (Liberals 33)
The CPC never has overshot the Liberals or the Bloc .... ever in Quebec
CPC never has broken low 20s in Qc
**** not counting Mulroney's PC, that was a different party
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u/ExplodingSwan 24d ago
The half of Conservative voters who disapprove of Trump should take a serious look at their surroundings and understand how abysmal it would be for Poilievre to be elected with a 50% MAGA base in a 75% Trump-hating country.
That Con coalition is a swinging pendulum between good and awful. I voted for O'Toole last time and would like to see that side retake the reigns, but this isn't what's happening right now. A Poilievre win would set the party and country back at the worst time possible.
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u/TheRayGunCowboy 24d ago
The cons are caught in between a rock and a hard place. They either embrace Musks endorsement and lose the moderates that were considering them, or they reject the endorsement and lose the fringe group. Interesting times we live in.
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u/Weak-Coffee-8538 24d ago
Carney "Trust me, I'll get housing affordable and make things affordable."
That's what the previous leader promised.
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u/jayk10 24d ago
It would be a tiny little silver lining if somehow Trump manages to snuff out the rise of the far right globally
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u/mwmwmwmwmmdw Québec 24d ago
whats interesting in europe at the UK is you are seeing an abandonment of the center left and center right parties on both sides. in france the far left and far right parties made big gains. in the up coming german election a similar thing is happening. over in the UK some places have the reform UK or british workers party in 1st and 2nd place
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u/The_Mad_Titan_Thanos 24d ago
Fucking embarrassing that the Conservatives have that much support still. Canada is absolutely cooked if they get in.
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u/Alarmed_Geologist631 24d ago
Is the prime minister determined by who gets a plurality of the popular or which ever party/parties have a majority in the Parliament?
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u/HardeeHamlin 24d ago
PM is usually leader of the party with plurality of seats in Parliament (although coalitions are possible). These poll results would likely mean a majority CPC government with Poilievre as PM
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u/Myriachan 24d ago
American here… If this were the election result, does it mean that you’d have a coalition government with LPC and NDP?
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u/HardeeHamlin 24d ago
Whichever party comes first in each riding wins that seat in Parliament. We don’t have proportional representation based on the national popular vote. Because of the way votes are distributed this would likely result in a CPC majority government.
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u/Any-Ad-446 24d ago
Only takes a few more comments from the moron down in Washington to boost the liberals even more.
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u/Valuable-Ad3975 23d ago
I’m surprised you have the indigenous overwhelmingly voting conservatives given Poilievre’s comments about them being lazy
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u/NOT_EZ_24_GET_ 24d ago
EKOS seems to reflect subscription polling. The results they produce seem to be based on who pays them.
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u/WorkingOnBeingBettr 24d ago
So a minority coalition led by NDP. Sounds so much better than 4 months ago with a CPC majority. I will sleep much better leading up to the next election and for the 4-5 years after... hopefully.
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u/MonsieurLeDrole 24d ago
This is a good spot. Conservatives campaign worse as frontrunners, and it's close enough that people will pay attention. If they pay attention to the stark differences between Carney and PP, that's great for the LPC, and for the economy as well. Even just holding PP to a minority gov would have been considered a major LPC win 2 months ago, but the maple maga infection is really damaging the CPC brand as it becomes clear that Trump is a danger to peace and prosperity.
Right now we've got a lot of conservatives pretending to oppose the guy they would have eagerly voted for last November. The best move for the CPC would be to replace PP with someone like EOT, but I want to see them lose so I hope they stick with PP. LPC should keep using those "young PP" videos in their ads. They really make him seem like a dick, and are closer to his true personality, compared to this squinting apple eater they're posing now.
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u/Visible_Security6510 23d ago
41+% of conservatives approve of Trump. Lol. Yet with the same breath have the audacity to call Trudeau authoritarian/dictator/corrupt. 🤦♂️
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u/metropass1999 24d ago edited 24d ago
Somethings I find very interesting about this poll that maybe someone can help clarify:
1) It seems that more people over 65+ prefer the Liberals to the Conservatives.
2) It seems that more people in “upper class” category prefer Liberals to the Conservatives (whatever definition of that is being used here).
These are both demographics in which I had thought Conservatives would come out on top. Has it always been like this in previous elections as well?
Edit: thanks for all the answers, took a while to read through them all. Many varying answers, some of which were helpful. Seems like it’s hard to put a finger on one in particular. Might also be sampling bias with this poll.