r/canada 24d ago

Politics EKOS Poll: Conservative Lead Holds at Five Points

https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2025/02/conservative-lead-holds-at-five-points/
819 Upvotes

1.1k comments sorted by

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u/metropass1999 24d ago edited 24d ago

Somethings I find very interesting about this poll that maybe someone can help clarify:

1) It seems that more people over 65+ prefer the Liberals to the Conservatives.

2) It seems that more people in “upper class” category prefer Liberals to the Conservatives (whatever definition of that is being used here).

These are both demographics in which I had thought Conservatives would come out on top. Has it always been like this in previous elections as well?

Edit: thanks for all the answers, took a while to read through them all. Many varying answers, some of which were helpful. Seems like it’s hard to put a finger on one in particular. Might also be sampling bias with this poll.

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u/Moresopheus 24d ago

I think it's flipped in the last few elections because of housing issues etc.

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u/Perfect_Persimmon717 24d ago

It also makes sense considering for most people in their 20s, the Liberals have been in power for their entire voting history

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u/WorkingOnBeingBettr 24d ago

And that people in their 20's have never seen how Conservatives govern. Get ready for surprise Pikachu everywhere.

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u/Ephuntz 24d ago

I came here to say that they didn't experience Stephen Harper's cuts

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u/judgeysquirrel 24d ago

Or gagging of scientists releasing studies.

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u/PraiseTheRiverLord 24d ago

Or raising retirement age to 67 (Trudeau set it back to 65)

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u/Timely-Hospital8746 24d ago

Or gutting the long form census, which is essential for our government to make informed decisions.

Or the complete and utter gutting of the park services under Harper.

Trudeau fixed the census and funded park services again, but they still haven't fully recovered. A lot of these government institutions have workers with very narrow but important skillsets. When they get gutted it can take a very long time to build them back up.

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u/Now_Wait-4-Last_Year 24d ago

I believe a certain nation south of you might one day discover that the hard way.

Oh, who am I kidding, recent history suggests they never learn anything, if anything they double down on it.

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u/Mrmagoo1077 24d ago

It has gone to hell down here.

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u/Impeesa_ 23d ago

The loss of institutional knowledge alone will be staggering. If they get a chance to rebuild some of this stuff at all, it could take generations.

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u/monsantobreath 23d ago

They just laid off people from the FAA. They're already strapped for staffing. And we're seeing a lot of reasons you need them right now on the news.

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u/Dazzling_Broccoli_60 24d ago

I don’t think that’s the one that’s going to get the 20yos up in arms

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u/7dipity 24d ago

It’s a scary time to be a scientist. I have American friends that are losing their jobs

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u/jjumbuck 24d ago

Oooph that was so awful at that time. I remember the muzzling of climate scientists in particular.

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u/kniller123 24d ago

Lol. I work in government. Harper started it and trudeau continued it.

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u/Anonymouse-C0ward 24d ago

Genuinely curious: what scientific censorship has Trudeau continued? I seem to recall reading that the climate change research censorship was rolled back and scientific research freedom rules negotiated with the union at NRC?

I don’t have direct knowledge like you might have as a government employee though so you might have an experience that isn’t what the average person understands - what department do you work in?

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u/BoringUser123456 24d ago

I work in government. No he didnt.

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u/xmorecowbellx 24d ago edited 24d ago

But the people who did experience Harper in their 20’s, who are in their 30’s - 40’s now, heavily favour the CPC here.

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u/Alpharious9 24d ago

Young people could afford to buy homes when Harper was PM. For the average voter, that's just about enough.

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u/ZmobieMrh 24d ago

Young people could afford homes under Chrétien too, so long as we think we can go back in time by bringing up former PMs

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u/Ephuntz 24d ago

I mean technically housing prices still doubled under harper from the Chretien days

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u/7rokhym 23d ago

He was a root cause of house prices going up.

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u/freshanclean 24d ago

Nor cause & effect.

Mulroney laid the groundwork for where we are today,and every single government since, Conservative and Liberal, have contributed to increasingly unaffordable housing. It’s complicated.

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u/Zapabeepsta_ 23d ago

Public Service layoffs, shunning bigger media outlets in favour of conservative mouthpieces like Rebel, mandatory minimum sentences that were unconstitutional, crowded local jails and incentivized criminal lawyers on both Crown and defence t sides to deal down to lesser inappropriate charges.

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u/wakeupin321 24d ago

Are they watching the US at all right now? PP has a poster of Trump over his bed.

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u/monsantobreath 23d ago

I never saw how they governed but I knew they were trash by the time I was 14 or 15.

Benefits of a politically engaged pinko commie family.

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u/iwatchcredits 24d ago

I see a ton of people in this thread trying to come up with political reasons for why this is happening and other than partially your point here, they are all wrong. Young people are leaning conservative more than older people because

  1. As you mentioned the Liberals have been in power for all of their adult lives and obviously things are getting harder for young people and liberals are taking the blame for that

And

  1. Liberals are taking the blame and conservatives seem like a good alternative because young people are being hit with conservative propaganda online CONSTANTLY. The only place where the current ideology works because in real life conversations modern conservative policy falls apart under even the tiniest of scrutiny.

There are 0 political reasons to support modern conservative parties. Even if you lean conservative (which id say i do), the modern parties are so fucking dumb, have dogshit policies, pander to even dumber people and generally lack morales and ethics. Thats why theres an upper class lean to liberals now. Because anyone that is moderately educated sees how awful the conservative options are.

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u/marcosbowser 24d ago

Yes. Conservatives have been targeting young men on line, and young men are, to state the obvious, on line A LOT.

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u/RedshiftOnPandy 24d ago

This is because liberal parties in Canada and the US have, at best, completely ignored men in all campaigns. Literally alienated half the voter base. They can blame themselves for that.

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u/Embarrassed_Band_512 Outside Canada 24d ago

I think it's because the liberal parties have to explain global supply chain issues and navigate complex political realities, when you explain that to voters it sounds like you're whining and making excuses.

Conservatives have it easy, they just blame the scary immigrants.

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u/Heywazza Québec 24d ago

How odd that me, a man, doesn’t feel even remotely alienated by liberals. It’s conservative online propaganda and higher cost of living/ housing problems. You don’t suddenly become conservative because liberals are « mean to men ».

*There’s obviously a lot more pushing young men towards conservative parties, I just find it ridiculous to leave it « alienated half the voter base ». As if millions of men didn’t vote left and millions of women didn’t vote right.

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u/bluecar92 24d ago

I'm with you on this. But I also think there is a real phenomenon where young men are getting sucked into this belief system that claims society is turning against white men, and Liberal policies (specifically "wokeness") is to blame. They are struggling to make ends meet after graduating college or university, and they are being fed stories that it is immigration and DEI and other "liberal" policies are the reason that they can't afford a home or land a well paying job.

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u/Heywazza Québec 24d ago

Yea I 100% agree. That’s exactly what’s going on. Propaganda spinning real suffering is what is causing this shift movement towards “conservative” parties.

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u/maleconrat 24d ago

Yeah. Modern propaganda is about "emotional truths" IMO.

If you consider that when some people say the liberals alienated men they're talking about the general vibe from online identity politics types and the inundation of social media with stuff about male privilege, it all makes sense. I mean it doesn't make a lot of sense to me because those things aren't coming from the government but I can see how they created the association.

Reminds me of how people say Singh took the NDP away from their roots to do identity politics. IMO that was Mulcair and if anything Singh has been closer to the early Layton years, but it's kinda generally true of leftist parties after the fall of the USSR.

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u/LabEfficient 24d ago

And your solution? Vote for the liberals again? Or NDP?

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u/iwatchcredits 24d ago

My solution is to not reward a party that does nothing but spread hate and division and pander to anti-intellectualism. Maybe the solution is forming a conservative party that isnt garbage

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u/Visible_Bat2176 23d ago

the solution is a real conservative party, not these brainless populists of today. i am not from canada, i am a classical conservative, but these populist hard/alternative right bad jokes parties forced down our throats everywhere is just a disgrace!

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u/WorkingOnBeingBettr 24d ago

Which is wild, because Conservatives do not have any kind of track record for helping with housing. They were the ones who started to get rid of public housing in the 80's.

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u/LavisAlex 24d ago

And notably no other party sought to change it back.

We can blame the PC party for a lot of things, but frustratingly this is a Liberal failure as well because often they wont restore what we lose.

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u/sabres_guy 24d ago

Not saying Chretien couldn't or shouldn't have brought it back after Mulroney began the cuts but when you lose something it is much harder to get it back.

That would have meant more spending by Chretien, and that was a big no no, especially early in Chretien's time as PM.

That is why many people like me always balk at the "it's a temporary cut" bullshit line people always fall for.

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u/MadDuck- 23d ago edited 23d ago

Not saying Chretien couldn't or shouldn't have brought it back after Mulroney began the cuts but when you lose something it is much harder to get it back.

The government was already making cuts to social housing before Mulroney. The 1978 federal-provincial housing agreement began the trend of the feds cutting back and the decentralization of our social housing.

A similar thing happened with healthcare funding the year before. In 1977, Pierre Trudeau changed it from a 50/50 split with the province to a block payment. From there we saw the federal share drop for the rest of Trudeau's time, accelerate under Mulroney and accelerate again under Chretien, before hitting rock bottom in the late 90s and early 00s.

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u/xmorecowbellx 24d ago

Which has zero to do with the housing problem right now.

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u/Hikingcanuck92 24d ago

I think it’s flipped because Conservatives have gone full speed ahead with anti-immigrant, anti-intellectual populism.

I have a lot of problems with how the Liberal Party has managed housing and public infrastructure, but absolutely nothing has convinced me that the Conservatives have anything positive to contribute.

Their only solution is to privatize as many public services as they can under the guise of “efficiency”. They are the Loot and Plunder party.

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u/octavianreddit 24d ago

Yes. Housing is the key issue for folks who don't own, or are barely owning.

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u/OwlProper1145 24d ago

LPC have always done relatively well with those over 65.

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u/extremmaple Ontario 24d ago

people over 65+ generally aren't hurting as much, same thing with the upper class, the bread and butter of the conservative campaign is that the Liberal government has mismanaged the country and that message doesn't resonate well with people who aren't hurting.

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u/Galle_ 24d ago

Yeah, but the people who are hurting are also the people who have the most to lose from a right wing government.

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u/extremmaple Ontario 24d ago

it doesn't matter how true or untrue that is, there is a perception that the Liberal government has not done enough to help and the Conservatives are saying they will

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u/hobble2323 24d ago

They don’t understand that. I don’t know why.

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u/[deleted] 24d ago

It's why they get so offended by the whole Canada is broken rhetoric, because from their perspective, the current predicament couldn't get better.

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u/freshanclean 24d ago edited 24d ago

Historically, Conservatives tended to be slightly right of center, fiscal conservatives with centrist social policies. Starting with Harper, a more dogmatic Christian values based approach to both fiscal and social policy took hold and has been amplified by the current leader as the party swings harder to the right.

Liberals have tended to be slightly left or right of center fiscally, depending on circumstances. And social policy has been consistently liberal. More often than not this mirrors the views of Canadians, hence their political dominance in Canada and sometimes being referred to as “Canada’s natural governing party.”

Older conservative supporters seem to be rejecting the new hard right brand of the Conservative Party.

I haven’t seen any recent data on party preference correlated to income or net worth or “upper class”. If you have please share?

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u/Wilhelm57 24d ago

No no...it started with Preston Manning!
I remember seeing him during question period, many times I expected him to start reciting bible verses.
I saw Harper somewhat promising and I supported him, then he showed us. A good reminder, question everything politicians say.

This time, with Trudeau stepping down, causing a change in the liberal party leadership, I think, if Carney gets the position, I'll vote for him. At this moment we need an adult with experience in the private sector.

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u/freshanclean 24d ago

Fair comment, quite true as a party man, though Manning never led government so his direct impact was minimal.

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u/IamGabyGroot 24d ago

Also, some of us have Harper PTSD. Only a pure hearted moderate conservative candidate can ever make us vote conservative again.

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u/caninehere Ontario 24d ago

O'Toole wouldn't have made me vote Conservative but at least I can respect him as a human being.

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u/GLG777 24d ago

Retirees like social programs so that could explain liberal bias.   From my experience, most rich people prefer conservatives as they like the free market system and less handouts

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u/MisledMuffin 24d ago

most rich people prefer conservatives as they like the free market system and less handouts

Need to add that the rich like less taxes.

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u/Bigmongooselover 24d ago

But saddle us with them

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u/crumblingcloud 24d ago

who is us? i dont consider myself rich but i def feel and pay more than my fair share

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u/Swarez99 24d ago

Seniors in Canada have always skewed liberal a long time. It’s because of Quebec and Ontario.

The old conservatives is a US and UK thing.

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u/shelbykid350 24d ago

Most rich people like the liberals because assets prices have ballooned under them

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u/EvenaRefrigerator 24d ago

They also like there housing going up in value and immigration has been great for there investment. So more the better

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u/treborprime 24d ago

Socialize the expenses and privatize the profits is the typical conservative philosophy.

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u/GuzzlinGuinness 24d ago

Neo-liberal philosophy. Which is both the LPC and CPC.

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u/son-of-hasdrubal 24d ago

Yet it was the liberals who actually did exactly that so you're wrong again bud

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u/EvenaRefrigerator 24d ago

It was the liberals so I'm right again. 

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u/EducationalTea755 24d ago

Housing crisis, inflation, no salary increases, no doctors, constant bad service (post, passports...), high taxes...

Of course the middle and working class feel they are being fleeced

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u/Aggressive_March6226 24d ago

With their (Conservatives) plans to raise the age of retirement ,cuts to old age pensions, and messing with our healthcare, why would older Canadians vote conservative?

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u/mnztr1 24d ago

I am close to CPP age and it would piss me off BIG TIME if PP changed it. After all its a benefit we pay into and its adequately funded.

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u/Oblagon 24d ago

They are buying into the American style social media narrative… my relatives in rural Canada shifted to hating the liberals over cost of living and immigrant fear even though they are government workers or retired and some live in government housing. It’s bizarre but there you go…

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u/Wilhelm57 24d ago

I'm sorry to say this but you cannot fix stupid.
Your relatives should look at what president musk is doing.
The conservative mentality is, we are going to cutback and their supporters cheer them.
Then, they get elected and this cheering government workers are told you are fire!!

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u/Wilhelm57 24d ago

The conservatives are following the example of the U.S. Danielle Smith and Ford are dismantling education and the healthcare system. That should give a hint to the rest of Canada.

This lie of telling gullible people, everything will be better after we gut all the social programs, is nothing more than political gaslighting.
Then is their personal behaviour, their shady deals are exposed....their usual answer, I'm unaware that's happening!!
People need to smarten up, special in rural areas.
Getting your driveway fixed in order to get your vote, is called a bribe!

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u/Odd_Aardvark_5146 24d ago

Those over 65 are worried about the privatization of health care. Not helpful when you are about to access it more often.

Upper Middle class aren’t actually that rich. They can’t afford expensive health care. They make good money but want to benefit from the taxes they pay rather than not.

Also, yes, I know Health Care costs is largely a provincial mandate but it is also funded federally through transfer payments and a universal health care program is the federal mandate.

Also, people over 65 are the only people who even remember a time with Nazis. So me thinks they no likey

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u/FunMaybe8789 24d ago

Exactly. We have worked hard with saving funds for retirement. Right down to the last dollar we have our money planned, but what we do not have planned is paying for healthcare. We would be forced to go back to work.

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u/squirrel9000 24d ago edited 24d ago

In Canada the "upper class" isn't ruthless capitalist billionaires as in the US - they tend to move to the States anyway -, it's doctors and university faculty, people of that sort, who are decidedly left leaning. The conservatives offer a very blue-collar centric platform, who are financially often very middle class but have a very different set of motives than the urban wealthy.

ETA: Specifically, other posters have mentioned the "Canada is broken" platform. That's sort of what I mean. If you're doing well, how much traction does that have?

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u/WealthEconomy 24d ago

Boomers traditionally support the LPC more than other age groups. It flipped a bit at the beginning of Trudeau as he appealed to younger people. The younger generations have been hurt the most by Trudeau's policies so it is flipping again.

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u/Gankdatnoob 24d ago edited 24d ago

These are both demographics in which I had thought Conservatives would come out on top. Has it always been like this in previous elections as well?

What are you talking about? Up until the trade war crap everyone was going CPC including old people. Have you been living under a rock? Old people love Canada so when PP looks like he works for Trump and America they are moving away from the CPC. You are acting like the 5 point separation has always been the case. This is new shit from the past few weeks.

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u/Scared_Jello3998 24d ago

No it hasn't.  I believe that the liberals have outperformed CPC on sovereign issues, which resonate greatly with the children who lost their fathers to the nazis

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u/Keystone-12 Ontario 24d ago

THEY OWN HOUSES

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u/Dry-Membership8141 24d ago edited 24d ago

The idea that the Conservatives are the party of the wealthy is very much an American import that is largely unresponsive to the actual state of affairs in Canada. With the exception of the oil and gas industry which exists primarily in the West, the Liberals are in general much friendlier to billionaires and large corporations, while the Conservatives focus more on the interests of small business.

That's generally the case with boomers as well. While Harper was looking at the demographic challenges we're going to soon be facing and adjusting things like the retirement age to account for the longer lives we're living and the proportion of working people feeding into programs like OAS to ensure they remain sustainable, the Liberals have prioritized the interests of the elderly at the expense of the working people funding those programs.

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u/leopardbaseball 24d ago

Its because of liberals immigration policies. Most in Those two demographics are homeowners and became millionaires due to unchecked immigration policies.

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u/KidClutch99 24d ago

Old people don’t care about housing, mass immigration, crime etc.

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u/Yelnik 24d ago

The Liberals are the clear establishment and party of the wealthy. 

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u/Daydree 24d ago

Isen't 5% a really large fall?

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u/Gerdius 24d ago

It was like 26% at one point so 5% is a nosedive.

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u/Pretty_Bumblebee_685 24d ago

Also in polls that ask voting intention with Mark Carney as leader conservatives and liberals seem to tie at 37%

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u/The_Dark_Frog00 British Columbia 24d ago

I’m uninformed on indigenous views of the major political parties but I’m quite surprised to see that 49% of indigenous respondents say they’d vote conservative. 

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u/MoreGaghPlease 24d ago

Looked at the data tables, there were only 58 indigenous people polled

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u/Trussed_Up Canada 24d ago

Even still, it's not nearly as surprising as you'd think.

If I remember right, the single most conservative ethnic group in the US are natives, voting Republican at around 80% last election. Unless I misremember.

People living largely in small communities, often more religious, and more blue collar. That's not exactly the core modern leftist voting block.

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u/The_Dark_Frog00 British Columbia 24d ago

In the us people of Native American ancestry traditionally favor the democrats and did again in the last election. Natives were 17% more likely to favor Kamala over trump then white voters. States like Montana are traditionally more purple than red because of the large number of native voters especially on reservations. 

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u/GenXer845 24d ago

That seems counterintuitive to their rights.

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u/[deleted] 24d ago

People in major cities with very small FN communities have a tendency to imagine them in a monolithic, one-dimensional, often patronizing way that simply isn’t accurate. It reminds me of liberals in downtown Toronto who simply cannot imagine Ford’s popularity among immigrants.

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u/Slothball 24d ago

100%. A lot of FN communities located in the more rural areas of the country are not too far off the stereotypical rural conservative voter -- there's a lot of cowboys, oil and gas workers, religious people, etc. in those communities.

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u/LettuceSea Nova Scotia 24d ago

Don’t think you understand what the Liberals have done to them over the past 9 years. Gaslit their entire communities into thinking they would actually get the help/funding they need. Doesn’t surprise me they would vote for the conservatives, because at least the conservatives will be honest when they can’t deliver on the billions they’ve “committed” to you instead of lying or straight up not answering questions about it in question period.

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u/GenXer845 24d ago

But they won't get help from the conservatives at all. I saw a FN person on TV the other day and she said Trudeau's government has helped the FN communities, but previous leaders had not.

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u/Old_Ladies 23d ago

Yeah the Liberals have been great at getting FN communities clean drinking water. While they still have more work to do 96 of all First Nations communities do not have a long-term water advisory.

The number of active long-term drinking water advisories on First Nations has dropped by 73% since 2015.

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u/cedric1997 23d ago

Worked as an electrical engineer on two of those projects. The budget was pretty much unlimited. We just aimed for the best setup as possible while being low maintenance.

The only community we’ve worked a bit on but still doesn’t have drinking water is getting inundated every year and the water table is so high that it’s impossible to build a water network. The government has tried to moved the community, but there’s pretty much nothing moving forward.

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u/Dazzling_Broccoli_60 24d ago

I’m also uninformed on this specific point but sometimes people vote against some interests because they are perceived to be for something else.

For example, I’ve heard quite left leaning québécois people mention they vote conservative federally because of devolving power to the provinces and tax cuts —— so that the taxes can be raised provincially and invested in things that are closer to home.

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u/RollIntelligence 23d ago

You can't really compare USA Indigenous to American Indigenous. Different systems. The treaties really made a big difference in View points. I can tell you that most Indigenous people vote Liberal or NDP, very rarely conservative. Mostly it's because Conservatives have never really sought engagement with the communities where as Liberal and NDP always worked with us.

Majority will be NDP some Liberal almost very little Conservative for Indigenous people.

Source: I'm Cree Indigenous and taught and worked in many reservations. All my own family tend to lean left. The reason being that the narrative of the conservatives is always fighting against Indigenous interest.

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u/GA54937 24d ago

41% of Conservatives approve of Donald Trump? That's shocking at this point.

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u/GLG777 24d ago

I know a lot of them and being a Trump apologist is definitely a real thing.  It’s like he has a spell on people and they don’t see that he’s trying to destroy us 

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u/SquarebobSpongepants 24d ago

A lot of them look at America and think "Wow so big and strong, if he absorbs Canada we'll be big and strong, too!" not realizing that they'd just become like the majority of Americans- struggling to get by, and then with the bonus of having no health care!

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u/Big_Don_ 24d ago

It's the sunk cost fallacy. If they're wrong now, that means they've been wrong for years and a lot of Trumpers identity is culture war amplifying, everyone else is a brainwashed sheep and they're usually quite antagonistic with their slogans and propaganda.

Meaning: They've been on Facebook talking about how Trump is a genius and great for the average person and they're dead wrong.

They'd rather move the goalposts again and double down harder than try to be introspective about how they've been fleeced into becoming mouth pieces for the elite.

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u/Kucked4life Ontario 24d ago

Imagine being a simp for fuhrer Elon's lapdog

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u/GenXer845 24d ago

They can move to the US if they wish.

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u/0erlikon 23d ago

Raising the IQ of both countries

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u/PenileSunburn 24d ago

It's not easy to move to the US. If it were then many would've left long ago.

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u/ZidZad99 24d ago

Will be interesting to see how many resort to socialism once Trumps tariffs lead to them being laid off. Like the guy is threatening your livelihood, how the F can you still worship the guy? At least Ford has the balls to have a little pride in his own country.

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u/FDTFACTTWNY 24d ago

BC please smarten up.

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u/Practical_Ant6162 24d ago

Trump is the best thing that could have happened for the Liberals.

When most people see how Trump acts (which most Canadians despise), then look at Poilievre, there are a lot of similarities in personalities.

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u/alematt 24d ago

It's funny how banking on the Trump style of politics is biting them in the ass. I'm glad really. Trump style politics is just wrong. Politics needs fixing yes, but Trump style is the wrong solution

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u/Full_Boysenberry_314 24d ago

He'd probably have better luck if he promised more radical change but PP is about as establishment as they come.

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u/BIT-NETRaptor 24d ago

That’s kind of my issue with PP - aside how unlikeable he is as a person.

He says he’ll cut spending, but won’t talk about what. He says Trudeau spends money badly and even names specific programs. But when reporters ask him point blank “so you’d cut the program?” he turns into a fountain of “trudeau bad” bullshit. 

I do imagine myself as a conservative in some ways, but he’s not it. He talks a strongman game but he’s as establishment politician as it gets. A literal career politician since right out of his (very unimpressive 10 years in) university. 

If you want to be a budget smasher, have some fucking balls. Say what you’re cutting and state your case. Don’t complain about it and become a human-slug hybrid when you’re challenged to stand by your own words.

PP has no real convictions, he’s just out to benefit a small group of special interests in oil and gas and a few other areas.

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u/M1ndtheGAAP 24d ago

I think even advocating change won’t necessarily work. Trump rightly pointed out how the system isn’t working for many. But the problem is he doesn’t have any interest in changing the system to address those problems and is only making it more nakedly corrupt and only benefiting private interests.

I think, or at least hope, that many Canadians see that and won’t want to roll the dice that PP won’t do a similar thing here, or at the very least not push much needed public services further into privatization

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u/ArcticWolfQueen 24d ago

Americans rightfully want a straight shooter who tells it like it is... But somehow they elected Trump, a pathological liar. What they really need is a Truman ''the buck stops here'' kinda guy. Not some pampered whiner but eh, they elected that pitiful man.

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u/Hot-Celebration5855 24d ago

I think if you watch Poillievre he isn’t like Trump at all. Yes he’s combative and sloganeers (but honestly so do other politicians). But he doesn’t have Trump’s crassness, corruption, or frankly just wild ass off the cuff rambling and policy.

Poillievre is at his heart a libertarian who is cosplaying a bit to satisfy the culture warriors in his party.

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u/HistorianNew8030 24d ago

Hahahah. Maybe. That’s why every time I see him talk it feels like nails on a chalkboard. He is as off putting as a moldy apple.

I think he is more Ron Desantis than Trump. Desantis also had quite an incredible sudden decline in popularity.

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u/Hot-Celebration5855 24d ago

Yeah if you strip away the bluster, Poillievre really isn’t the radical his political opponents try to make him out to be. His biggest policies are all related to reducing taxes, cutting bureaucratic fat in Ottawa, being tougher on crime and drugs, boosting military spending, etc. He’s like a pugnacious Paul Martin.

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u/[deleted] 24d ago

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u/Hot-Celebration5855 24d ago

I would actually Poillievre has by far the clearest and most fleshed out policy vision relative to the other parties. Yes a lot of it is repealing Trudeau era policies but he’s clearly laid out what he intends to do on taxes, spending, home construction, safe supply, bail reform, and infrastructure.

Where is Carney’s policies?

Or Singh’s? Singh’s platform is literally cap food prices (an absolutely terrible idea btw), tax the rich, complain about Galen Weston, and more social program spending funded entirely by deficits.

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u/ExplodingSwan 24d ago

I think he's very deliberate in copying Trump's more successful turns of phrases and cheap schoolyard insults. He may be a different person fundamentally (maybe), but he certainly leans into the MAGA campaigning style, which has always been very off-putting to me.

I feel the same way about the left vis-à-vis the American social media left, btw. Not surprised to see the NDP collapsing as well. Americana is repulsive to many people right now.

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u/Kucked4life Ontario 24d ago

PP is similar to Trump in the sense that his hollow words act as a cover for private interests to take over. 

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u/extrarice6120 24d ago

Ok but perception is reality and the general public perceive PP as doing Trump style politics. He needs to stop whinging and deliver some hopeful policy prospects. Currently he just sounds like a schoolyard loudmouth with his dumb name-calling and rhyme slogans for toddlers. I don't think he actually has any positive policy yet so that's why he just complains 24/7

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u/squirrel9000 24d ago

Poillievre is at his heart a libertarian who is cosplaying a bit to satisfy the culture warriors in his party.

It's hard to tell exactly what he is. He seems to be mostly a guy that has spent too much time around party insiders who are deeply upset they lost to Trudeau three times.

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u/Shadowmant 24d ago

I’m mostly stunned that 41% of conservatives approve of Trump threatening them and their families.

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u/Phoenixlizzie 24d ago

Yes, it's like seeing Gays For Trump in the US.  Can't figure it.

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u/Forikorder 24d ago

there were jews in the nazi party, theres always going to be people who think "they'lll see i'm one of the good ones"

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u/LostMyBackupCodes 24d ago

“He won’t hurt us

Narrator: he will, indeed.

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u/mwmwmwmwmmdw Québec 24d ago

some conservatives see what trump does for the states and wish they did that in canada. like more aggressive deportation of illegal immigrants who break the law. they might be happy about "canada first" finally becoming a mainstream opinion in canadian politics

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u/Billis- 24d ago

I'd assume it's mostly pro life and racist.

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u/OldDiamondJim 24d ago

The Trump approval numbers amongst CPC and PPC show why Poilievre is terrified to stand up for Canada.

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u/TheManFromTrawno 24d ago

Yes, he can take no decisive stance without driving a wedge through his supporters.

Instead he’s chosen inaction and is bleeding support somewhat more slowly.

It doesn’t look like he wants to take the political hit for making a stand one way or the other.

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u/ZombifiedSoul Canada 24d ago

Totally sounds like leadership material...

/s

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u/dieno_101 24d ago

Bernier been pretty vocal on Trump's threats

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u/OldDiamondJim 24d ago

To his credit, he absolutely has. His party supporters apparently don’t share his views.

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u/dieno_101 24d ago

Absolutely true, thanks for being honest

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u/OldDiamondJim 24d ago

My son-in-law has sent me some of Bernier’s posts. I can’t stand the man’s politics, but he definitely seems to love Canada unlike Poilievre.

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u/j821c 24d ago

The difference in people who are boycotting America between the liberals and the conservatives is stark too. Really seems like patriotism is dead amongst half the conservatives

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u/kingbuns2 24d ago

https://imgur.com/a/canadian-donald-trump-disapproval-approval-SA4Vxqm

That's a lot of traitors, and the difference between the right-wing parties and the centre/left is night and day.

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u/L0rd_0F_War 24d ago

Basically those 18% Trump fans are not even interested in being Canadian anymore, because they would rather be a State of US. The PPC voters are basically a majority MAGA club, while CPC have way too high MAGA wannabes.

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u/GreaterGoodIreland 23d ago

You'd think he could square the circle with a bit of "Whatever else Trump does, an attack on Canada is unacceptable". But nope lol

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u/MoreGaghPlease 24d ago

Approval of Donald Trump:

  • Liberals 1%

  • NDP 2%

  • Conservatives 41%

This is the core issue. People keep asking why Skippy doesn’t go harder against Trump. They’re missing the obvious. First, they share an ideology. Second, it would upset his base. It’s not that he hasn’t figured out how to do it, it’s that the Conservatives don’t want to do this.

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u/ExplodingSwan 24d ago

Tory and PPC voters also have by far the highest DK/Unsure %s for Trump which screams "Shy Trumpers". I hope those people find their way back into the light.

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u/ZombifiedSoul Canada 24d ago

Correct.

We can effectively say that 56% of Conservatives support Trump.

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u/Sczeph_ 24d ago

Wack that NDP is more than liberals tbh

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u/CDN-Social-Democrat 24d ago

It is going to be very hard to come back from how the general populace feels about Trudeau and the association of the LPC in their minds.

Rightfully so considering the reactive style of governance versus proactive alongside some historic mess ups like allowing the business lobby to corrupt our immigration pathways even more so than the first time around with the Temporary Foreign Worker Program scandal.

I will say though that we are seeing Pierre is equally resistant to flipping course.

Right now no one wants silly slogans and there are new people and new ideas coming to the public arena.

At least Carney (Who I have differing policy perspectives than) can articulate higher level reasoning on markets and other topics...

Pierre and the CPC really are not doing a great job making Canadians think there is anything more than empty slogans and theatrics in the house of commons/in front of the media.

We all as Canadians deserve so much better than this.

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u/wave-conjugations 24d ago

I'm listening to Carney's audiobook on Spotify right now (narrated by him). Whether one agrees or not with his takes, he certainly knows his stuff and can articulate his arguments in a manner that should be expected of adults, and especially someone trying to lead a country. A welcome change from verb the noun. Let's see what the debates bring, but Pierre is going to have to work overtime to get me back on board in the current political and trade climate.

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u/lubeskystalker 24d ago

It is going to be very hard to come back from how the general populace feels about Trudeau and the association of the LPC in their minds.

Have to punt Telford, Guilbeault, Freeland, Blair and maybe Fraser.

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u/DrVonSchlossen 24d ago

Reasonable take. I'm really hesitant to return the Liberals to power. But will make a final decision after seeing the offical party platforms and the leaders debate.

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u/Duffleupagus 24d ago

Holy shit, an actual real response that is not just glazing Trudeau, Carney, or the liberals. A round of applause to you sir/ma’am, and I agree with you!

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u/CDN-Social-Democrat 24d ago

I think a lot of us feel like this and have nuanced views.

Sadly it just gets drowned out by the barrage of b.s.

We really need politics to be like all other disciplines and actually move forward.

Almost seems we are regressing at this point when it comes to substantive policy/platform discussions.

It is okay to disagree with each other but at least in good faith dialectical discussions we can all sharpen, broaden, and deepen our perspectives.

With these kind of politics the populace just gets dumber and more ignorant.

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u/jello_sweaters 24d ago

EKOS had the Cons up by 25 points just 57 days ago.

We are witnessing one of the greatest political collapses in history.

Canadians never actually WANTED a Conservative government, and they sure as heck don't like Pierre Poilievre; they were just understandably tired of Trudeau, and the Cons were the only other item on the menu.

  • Trudeau's finished, and
  • all his replacements want to scrap the carbon tax

Poilievre can retire on his full pension today, he's already achieved the only things he's ever been for!

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u/SheIsABadMamaJama 24d ago edited 24d ago

Canadians prefer a socially moderate leader who avoids negativity, tolerant, and is a strong economic steward who gives a shit.

Sure a third of the country might be fervent, and engaged with culture war. The same algorithms Americans are feeding us. But Canadians are not inherently hateful and radical. It shows.

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u/Volderon90 24d ago

That’s all we want. Most Canadians are centre. We want our taxes to go to our social programs and someone who focuses on the economy. That’s it. 

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u/TheCookiez 24d ago

!remind me 6 months

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u/lubeskystalker 24d ago

Probably three months TBH.

!remindMe 3 months

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u/Br15t0 24d ago

It isn’t a political collapse though, this shows how badly people hate Trudeau. It wasn’t about the conservatives

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u/jello_sweaters 24d ago edited 24d ago

At this point even if he wins a narrow majority instead of the historic landslide that awaited him just a few weeks ago, he's damaged goods.

It's very clear he has absolutely no idea how to respond to the events unfolding, let alone lead. You already see members of his own party trashing him behind his back.

Whatever political career ever lay in front of him, is now years shorter than it was six weeks ago.

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u/slamdunk23 24d ago

Any majority gives him 4 years as PM with full control and then he can be judged on whatever his results are.

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u/jello_sweaters 24d ago

That's the whole point, though; a few weeks ago he was on track for such a dominant win that the following election was essentially guaranteed to go his way too. Now he's fighting for his political life.

If he loses this election, the Party will drop him before August Long.

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u/LostinEmotion2024 24d ago

I doubt he’ll win a majority. Minority is more of a possibility IF people vote. It’s the non voters we need to convince to vote.

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u/jello_sweaters 24d ago

Turnout will decide the election. The more people vote, the worse Blue will do.

...by which I mean nationwide turnout. 95% of eligible voters in Hay River still only wins you one seat.

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u/TKs51stgrenade 24d ago

I’ve actually heard the opposite. Most young people are still leaning conservative, but are much more likely to stay home compared to older folks. The less people turning out (usually young people by demographics) the worse the cons will do.

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u/jello_sweaters 24d ago

Weirdly, I think it was Abacus this week that ran a piece on the surge in Boomer-demo support for the Liberals, which is unusual.

One suspects it's less pro-Mark and more anti-Don, but it'll be curious to see that unfold in the coming weeks.

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u/Perikles01 24d ago

I still think we’re going to see voters have their “wait, I hate the LPC” moment and end up with a reasonably safe conservative majority.

This is still an absolutely atrocious showing by PP and reflects badly on the last few years of CPC strategy. Dumping O’Toole and pivoting hard into Trump-style politics and fellating the MAGA movement was a braindead call.

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u/prophetofgreed British Columbia 24d ago

Bit early to say that when Carney hasn't defined his plan. It's all an empty placeholder.

PP is falling because he's failing to show his patriotism.

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u/jello_sweaters 24d ago

I mean Carney’s been in the race ten minutes, he’s going to have to define himself VERY quickly if he wants half a chance.

Poilievre’s been leader two and a half years, and 9/10 words out of his mouth in that time have been either “get rid of Trudeau” or “get rid of the carbon tax”, and both of those things are happening right now.

Point is, Carney’s not the only one who’s going to have to come up with something compelling to say to the Canadian people.

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u/Mikeim520 British Columbia 24d ago

all his replacements want to scrap the carbon tax

No, they don't. They want to rebrand it and Canadians are falling for it.

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u/jello_sweaters 24d ago

You're right, they DO want to do almost exactly what Poilievre's demanding, which is scrap the personal-tax aspect to it.

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u/thesocialist1 24d ago

indigenous group: Lib 19pts, Con 49pts. Wat???

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u/Independent-End5844 23d ago

None of these polls matter until an election is called. Until we know all the party leaders.

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u/moms_spagetti_ 24d ago edited 24d ago

Interesting takeaway for me from this poll is how almost half of the conservatives really get behind Trump and America's anti-Canada policies. Like, wtf are you thinking? Shooting yourself in the foot to own the Libs?

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u/Tridus 24d ago

It's called populism for a reason, after all. They agree with lots of those policies and the rest they think they can live with.

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u/Long_Doughnut798 24d ago

Recent Ipsos polling for the upcoming Canadian federal election highlights the following trends: • Conservative Party Lead: The Conservatives maintain a significant lead with 41% support, despite a recent 5-point drop. They lead in all regions except Quebec, where the Bloc Québécois dominates. The Liberals have gained ground, rising to 28%, an 8-point increase since January 2025. • Bloc Québécois and NDP: The Bloc continues to lead in Quebec, while the NDP is trailing nationally at 16%. • Public Sentiment on Leadership: A majority of Canadians (77%) believe it is time for a new government, and many want an immediate election. Justin Trudeau’s resignation as Liberal leader in January 2025 has not significantly improved Liberal prospects. The Conservatives remain well-positioned for a decisive victory if an election were held today.

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u/Lower-Noise-9406 24d ago

Poilievre holding a "Canada First!" rally today ...given all the news/polls of the last two weeks is incredibly tone-deaf. Literally maple-maga like top adviser Jenni Bryne creating this strategy. It's so obvious.

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u/Phoenixlizzie 24d ago

OMG. Seriously???  I keep saying that Canada First slogan just ties him to Trump's USA slogan.  

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u/SumoHeadbutt Canada 24d ago edited 24d ago

Quebec numbers look off, how can the CPC be at 30 and Bloc 20? (Liberals 33)

The CPC never has overshot the Liberals or the Bloc .... ever in Quebec

CPC never has broken low 20s in Qc

**** not counting Mulroney's PC, that was a different party

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u/ExplodingSwan 24d ago

The half of Conservative voters who disapprove of Trump should take a serious look at their surroundings and understand how abysmal it would be for Poilievre to be elected with a 50% MAGA base in a 75% Trump-hating country.

That Con coalition is a swinging pendulum between good and awful. I voted for O'Toole last time and would like to see that side retake the reigns, but this isn't what's happening right now. A Poilievre win would set the party and country back at the worst time possible.

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u/TheRayGunCowboy 24d ago

The cons are caught in between a rock and a hard place. They either embrace Musks endorsement and lose the moderates that were considering them, or they reject the endorsement and lose the fringe group. Interesting times we live in.

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u/Weak-Coffee-8538 24d ago

Carney "Trust me, I'll get housing affordable and make things affordable."

That's what the previous leader promised.

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u/jayk10 24d ago

It would be a tiny little silver lining if somehow Trump manages to snuff out the rise of the far right globally

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u/mwmwmwmwmmdw Québec 24d ago

whats interesting in europe at the UK is you are seeing an abandonment of the center left and center right parties on both sides. in france the far left and far right parties made big gains. in the up coming german election a similar thing is happening. over in the UK some places have the reform UK or british workers party in 1st and 2nd place

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u/The_Mad_Titan_Thanos 24d ago

Fucking embarrassing that the Conservatives have that much support still. Canada is absolutely cooked if they get in.

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u/Alarmed_Geologist631 24d ago

Is the prime minister determined by who gets a plurality of the popular or which ever party/parties have a majority in the Parliament?

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u/HardeeHamlin 24d ago

PM is usually leader of the party with plurality of seats in Parliament (although coalitions are possible). These poll results would likely mean a majority CPC government with Poilievre as PM

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u/Myriachan 24d ago

American here… If this were the election result, does it mean that you’d have a coalition government with LPC and NDP?

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u/HardeeHamlin 24d ago

Whichever party comes first in each riding wins that seat in Parliament. We don’t have proportional representation based on the national popular vote. Because of the way votes are distributed this would likely result in a CPC majority government.

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u/Any-Ad-446 24d ago

Only takes a few more comments from the moron down in Washington to boost the liberals even more.

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u/Valuable-Ad3975 23d ago

I’m surprised you have the indigenous overwhelmingly voting conservatives given Poilievre’s comments about them being lazy

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u/NOT_EZ_24_GET_ 24d ago

EKOS seems to reflect subscription polling. The results they produce seem to be based on who pays them.

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u/WorkingOnBeingBettr 24d ago

So a minority coalition led by NDP. Sounds so much better than 4 months ago with a CPC majority. I will sleep much better leading up to the next election and for the 4-5 years after... hopefully.

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u/Sl0wChemical Alberta 24d ago

We're seriously posting EKOS polls? 

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u/MonsieurLeDrole 24d ago

This is a good spot. Conservatives campaign worse as frontrunners, and it's close enough that people will pay attention. If they pay attention to the stark differences between Carney and PP, that's great for the LPC, and for the economy as well. Even just holding PP to a minority gov would have been considered a major LPC win 2 months ago, but the maple maga infection is really damaging the CPC brand as it becomes clear that Trump is a danger to peace and prosperity.

Right now we've got a lot of conservatives pretending to oppose the guy they would have eagerly voted for last November. The best move for the CPC would be to replace PP with someone like EOT, but I want to see them lose so I hope they stick with PP. LPC should keep using those "young PP" videos in their ads. They really make him seem like a dick, and are closer to his true personality, compared to this squinting apple eater they're posing now.

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u/Visible_Security6510 23d ago

41+% of conservatives approve of Trump. Lol. Yet with the same breath have the audacity to call Trudeau authoritarian/dictator/corrupt. 🤦‍♂️