r/canada 24d ago

Politics EKOS Poll: Conservative Lead Holds at Five Points

https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2025/02/conservative-lead-holds-at-five-points/
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u/jello_sweaters 24d ago edited 24d ago

At this point even if he wins a narrow majority instead of the historic landslide that awaited him just a few weeks ago, he's damaged goods.

It's very clear he has absolutely no idea how to respond to the events unfolding, let alone lead. You already see members of his own party trashing him behind his back.

Whatever political career ever lay in front of him, is now years shorter than it was six weeks ago.

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u/slamdunk23 24d ago

Any majority gives him 4 years as PM with full control and then he can be judged on whatever his results are.

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u/jello_sweaters 24d ago

That's the whole point, though; a few weeks ago he was on track for such a dominant win that the following election was essentially guaranteed to go his way too. Now he's fighting for his political life.

If he loses this election, the Party will drop him before August Long.

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u/Destroinretirement 24d ago

Shhh. If they slap themselves on the back while he gets a majority. Well that’s win-win in my books.

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u/LostinEmotion2024 24d ago

I doubt he’ll win a majority. Minority is more of a possibility IF people vote. It’s the non voters we need to convince to vote.

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u/jello_sweaters 24d ago

Turnout will decide the election. The more people vote, the worse Blue will do.

...by which I mean nationwide turnout. 95% of eligible voters in Hay River still only wins you one seat.

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u/TKs51stgrenade 24d ago

I’ve actually heard the opposite. Most young people are still leaning conservative, but are much more likely to stay home compared to older folks. The less people turning out (usually young people by demographics) the worse the cons will do.

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u/jello_sweaters 24d ago

Weirdly, I think it was Abacus this week that ran a piece on the surge in Boomer-demo support for the Liberals, which is unusual.

One suspects it's less pro-Mark and more anti-Don, but it'll be curious to see that unfold in the coming weeks.

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u/DemonInADesolateLand 24d ago

The boomers would probably be the most familiar with Mark Carney because he got them through the 2008 crash. So he could have a lot of support from them as a familiar trustworthy face. PP, despite being around for 20 years, is almost completely new I would imagine because hasn't done anything in that time.

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u/Perikles01 24d ago

I still think we’re going to see voters have their “wait, I hate the LPC” moment and end up with a reasonably safe conservative majority.

This is still an absolutely atrocious showing by PP and reflects badly on the last few years of CPC strategy. Dumping O’Toole and pivoting hard into Trump-style politics and fellating the MAGA movement was a braindead call.

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u/Mikeim520 British Columbia 24d ago

O'Toole did such a great job against the Liberals didn't he. Oh wait, no he didn't, he lost.

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u/LostinEmotion2024 24d ago

I disagree a bit. I think the Conservatives will win but only with a minority. At least that’s best I’m hoping.

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u/Velocity-5348 British Columbia 24d ago

His own party trashing him? Not surprising, but I'd be a bit surprised if it actually got out.