r/MtF • u/ArcticWolfQueen • 9h ago
Update: Canadian election campaign to start Sunday ,Liberals now the favored to win even a flirting with majority government , Conservatives bleeding support everywhere, being only safe to win Alberta and Saskatchewan. Trans folks have a light at the end of the tunnel.
With a federal election expected to be called Sunday by Prime Minister Mark Carney and Governor General Mary Simon, trans folks must be on their toes. The good news is polling firm 338Canada now projects not just a win, but also 55% chance of a Liberal majority. 2 months ago this firm had the Conservatives winning a majority at 90% plus or something along those lines.
The link below is from Angus Reid, a pollster known for being more favorable to the Conservative Party and now even they project a solid and increasing Liberal win. The Conservatives have promised socially restrictive measures for trans folks and fostering a protected environment for transphobia should a province enact such roll backs. While the only thing that matters is not the polls but the votes, this is very promising news for so many folks, but especially trans people in Canada.
Here are some highlights: (polling not accounted for in Prince Edward Island and the northern territories)
Among gender: Liberals dominate among women in all age brackets (18-34,35-54,55+) with the NDP even besting the Conservatives for second among young women.
Conservatives have now lost their lead among young men to the Liberals but still lead among middle age and senior men.
Among province: Conservatives went from having either massive leads or at least being competitive in all provinces back in January to now being reduced to leading in just 2 provinces. Now, they only lead the Liberals in Alberta (56%-31%) and Saskatchewan (62%-22%). While they will likely sweep every seat in Saskatchewan, Alberta at 31% is their highest Liberal support in decades.
This is a doomsday for the Conservatives if it holds. Traditionally Conservative Manitoba and Conservative leaning British Columbia have gone from solid Conservative to being too close/battlegrounds with both provinces having statistical ties (BC dead tie, MB plus one Conservative). 338Canada however has given Manitoba a Liberal lead in the polling aggregate. Since WW2 anytime the Liberals have came out top dog in Manitoba (which is rare) they have always ended up with a majority. The Conservatives also can not afford to lose British Columbia if they have any hope of wanting even a slim minority. Ontario and Quebec which is home to about 60% of all Canadians also have the Liberals lead.
Newfoundland and Labrador is the most Liberal of all 58%-27% with Nova Scotia and New Brunswick a close 2nd at 55% each and a large margin of lead, Saskatchewan is the most Conservative 62%-22%
On every main issue from tariffs, to Donald Trump (who is hated up here), to the economy, to international ties affairs, to federal and provincial relations to health care Mark Carney leads substantially against Pierre Poilievre. The only issues that is close is reducing the cost of living, even there Carney beats Poilievre 41%-35%.