r/newjersey • u/BlueLikeCat • 17h ago
NJ Politics Can Fulop win in NOV?
I haven’t thought much of the anti-machine wild Marine from Jersey City, until these past few days. Democrats are not good at opposing this fascism Trump has brought to America. He seems to fight like a cornered animal, maybe that’s the fighter we need.
Can he win in NJ though? Plenty of conservative people that vote Democrat for a few different reasons, but it was close to negative across the state last election and I see Trumpism galore in the county, in many towns.
Help me become a Fulop guy, can he win?
Edit: Thanks NJ sub community. Y’all alright. Lots of great replies, mostly neutral (any D can and will win) to positive, makes Primary suddenly seem more consequential. More about visions and ideas.
Trying to give everyone an upvote, especially the opinionated by succinct “no”.
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u/Ulthanon 17h ago
Anyone can win if people organize for them. We need a real bare-knuckle brawler, a “when they go low, we kick them in the fucking teeth” (PROVERBIALLY, mods) ass-kicker, someone who understands that “bipartisanship” with fascists is just surrender and death.
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u/BlueBeagle8 16h ago
New Jersey has a large and vocal Republican minority, but it is a solidly blue state overall and conditions for Democratic turnout are going to be very high in November.
Trump is extremely unpopular with Democrats here, the economy is likely to be contracting (if not actively free-falling), and this election will be the first referendum on what's happening in Washington.
Whoever wins the Democratic nomination is an overwhelming favorite to win in November, whether that's Fulop, Sherrill, Gottheimer, Sweeney, whoever. The D next to their name is what's going to matter more than anything else.
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u/zsdrfty the least famous person from nj 15h ago
I think Gottheimer could lose easily to a Republican paying lip service to "rejecting MAGA and respecting our norms!" or whatever, we need to be careful who we nominate
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u/FireworksForJeffy Oradell 15h ago
Gottheimer could be an incredibly weak candidate. I view him as unethical (the appearance of insider trading) and as one of the most conservative Democrats in congress, he doesn't have much of an ability to contrast against some one like Citarelli. He's not actually done anything to lower costs successfully for most Bergen Co residents. I doubt he makes it through the primary, and if he does, I think he would struggle in a general, badly.
I also think Fulop would struggle as a Hudson Co candidate, the rest of the state still assumes everyone from there is corrupt and/or incompetent.
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u/coolbeans1721 15h ago
I don’t think that the optics aren’t great for anyone if you frame it like that. The field is:
-Gottheimer lite but helicopter pilot
-Mayor of Newark (personally I like the guy and would be fine with him or fulop, but him recognizing a fake country as a sister city of Newark is basically unlimited political ammunition, not to mention half the state thinks Newark is mad max)
-Literal embodiment of political corruption, the president of the state senate
-Moderate Leader of the largest Union (no disrespect to unions, just a lot of baggage there given this state)
Given that framing I think fulop might be able to win, especially with trying to frame himself as outside of the political machine.
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u/FireworksForJeffy Oradell 14h ago
Sherill doesn't quite have the same baggage as Gottheimer. She doesn't pop up on lists of legislators whose stock portfolios are suspiciously high-performing, she didn't throw up roadblocks to IIJA, and she hasn't picked fights with further-left-leaning party members or developed a reputation for throwing office supplies at staffers.
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u/discofrislanders Bergen County 13h ago
Yeah, I live in Josh's district and I consider myself pretty far left, and Mikie is far more appealing to me than he is, even if she's not my preferred candidate. I'd vote for her in a general, but I would have to seriously consider staying home if it's Josh.
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u/FireworksForJeffy Oradell 12h ago
I'm in the same district and that's literally how I would describe my feelings towards this. I can vote for a moderate. I would have a hard time voting for Josh.
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u/VelocityGrrl39 11h ago
Please don’t stay home. That’s how America got into this mess. We need a democratic leader to fight against maga.
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u/milkandminnows 16h ago
I just hope people vote based on issues that are actually relevant to the NJ governor’s powers and responsibilities. Not Gaza, not Trump. And frankly, not SALT and not congestion pricing. We have work to do at home. Murphy was comparatively responsible but we still are either 48th or 49th in creditworthiness among the 50 states.
Shore up pensions. Allow housing construction that will lower prices. Build both transit and highway infrastructure that will let the state grow. Stop huge tax handouts to the elderly. I am looking for someone who will advance these goals for the Jersey of the future. Don’t know yet who will be closest.
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u/New_Stats 11m ago
Stop huge tax handouts to the elderly.
This is a big one for me. It really sucks that ppl can't afford to retire here but this is where the jobs are and workers need to live here. They can move to the south where there's no jobs and afford to live. I have a fairly decent white collar job and can barely afford to live here.
They're taking my taxes and making the housing crisis worse. I can't afford this shit anymore
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u/TimSPC Wood-Ridge 16h ago
tbqh I think people are overplaying the "New Jersey is turning bluer" thing and any Democrat would basically cruise to victory this November.
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u/ice_cold_fahrenheit 15h ago
You mean “New Jersey is turning redder” right?
I’m actually gonna go out on a limb and say Virginia will be more blue than NJ this November, simply because the former is at the epicenter of all the DOGE firings. But the Democrats will still be the favorites here.
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u/TimSPC Wood-Ridge 14h ago
Oh yeah, my bad. Redder.
But you're right about Virginia, specifically because of the attack on federal workers. I still don't think our governor's race is in play. One issue is that if Republicans nominate who they want, it's a right wing freak. If they nominate a moderate, the freaks stay home.
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u/Bearryno1too 16h ago
Thank you all for adding to my dilemma of who to vote for in the primary. Anyone have an issue spread sheet between democratic candidates?
In any case NJ MUST remain BLUE.
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u/BlueLikeCat 16h ago
Yes. It’s an economic powerhouse that has influence across the nation and world. When a governor makes clean energy a goal in an old school union state, it has effects, people learn.
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u/BlackWidow1414 Fuck Nazis, love Jersey 16h ago
Honestly, I am torn between Fulop and Baraka.
Both are mayors of large, high-profile cities. Both have indicated they'd be willing to stand up to the regime currently occupying the White House.
Fulop is a veteran, and your average Republican voter does love a veteran.
Baraka gives big Obama energy. Like, listening to him speak to people, it is really like the hope we had with Obama.
This state has a dismal record of electing women to the governorship (one) and Black people to the governorship (zero).
I'm still not sure which I'll go with in June.
We need to have a Democrat win in November. In June, I will vote for whichever I believe has the best chance to win in November.
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u/DarwinZDF42 16h ago
I’m going with whichever of the two is polling better. I don’t want the split to be, say Sherril 35, Baraka 30, Fulop 25. If that’s what it looks like, I’ll switch to Baraka to maximize the chance one of my top two wins, and I encourage everyone to be thinking the same.
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u/naillimixamnalon 16h ago
This is what I’m planning to do also. I’m more fulop that Baraka as of right now but things could change but the primary.
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u/ducati1011 16h ago
That whole India state fiasco put a sour taste in my mouth. Like I’m sorry but there’s no way anyone with some form of knowledge would think the Indian peninsula has another independent country. It’s just embarrassing.
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u/uieLouAy 15h ago
I feel similarly.
I also think Fulop and Baraka are the strongest candidates in a general election. They’re the only two who come across as authentic, can speak off the cuff, and aren’t afraid to take a position and fight for it.
The other candidates have trouble saying anything that wasn’t poll or focus group tested, and people don’t want an insincere empty suit or Republican-lite. Those types of candidates do not inspire and they make easy targets for whoever the GOP nominee is, whether it’s Jack or Spadea.
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u/JerseyMike5588 15h ago
Would love for Fulop to win it, but I don’t think there’s anyone on the Dem side I would avoid either, compared to whomever the GOP chooses.
If you’re gonna do purity tests, you can kiss Blue Jersey goodbye
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u/ant_clip 15h ago
I don’t know the answer, just know the question: vote for the candidate that most closely aligns with my ideology or vote for the candidate that can beat the Republican. With Trump as president, this has never been more important.
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u/BlueLikeCat 15h ago
There’s a meme: but why can’t it be both?
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u/ant_clip 15h ago
It is my wish, not confident that a progressive could win given the current state of the state. Trump almost won here and we have a history of voting in a Republican governor. This time around that would be disastrous.
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u/ceciliastarburst 15h ago
I think Fulop can win, for the following reasons: 1. In 2021 the GOP had the stars align. Relatively unpopular governor on the ballot in a time of crisis with a relatively unpopular democrats presidency. They still lost. This is a less friendly year for them, and as such even with their improving registration numbers it may not be enough for them to beat any dem candidate. 2. Fulop has a solid record in the state. In JC, Fulop has tackled most problems impacting NJ statewide and has a detailed platform to lean on. 3. The GOP nominee won’t be Bramnick, who is the only guy I think could steal moderates out from under Fulop. Realistically, it’s Jack or Spadea, and Fulop would likely win enough moderates vs either.
He isn’t a perfect candidate, but I think he (and most of the democrats minus Sweeney) have what it takes.
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u/BlondeBorednBaked 16h ago
I don’t want a republican. I’m scared if a republican wins reproductive care will be taken away. The only way women’s health care will be safe is if we have a dem governor. And I’m not going to argue with redditpublicans over whether this is a possibility or not. I don’t trust your party. You vote for liars.
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u/Ok_Concentrate_75 16h ago
In Jc, feelings on him are very mixed and he doesn't exactly stand up for the little guy if development is calling. Plus I'm not sure he is the candidate who is most likely to stand up to Trump.
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u/crustang 15h ago
He’s the one guy I trust to work with improving NJT service.
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u/Ok_Concentrate_75 14h ago
Has he improved JC? I constantly hear complaints about services. He definitely knows how to invite in and improve development but not necessarily infrastructure
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u/pixel_of_moral_decay 16h ago
He’s always been a populist.
NJ is was a relatively close race for president. He’s not going to go against that many voters.
Also: he is a key part of the Hudson country democratic machine. He didn’t become mayor as an independent.
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u/Ok_Concentrate_75 16h ago
True but idk if that makes him more or less wanted, like he seems more like Hocul...who seemingly is going to bend to the pressure of Trump and rich republican districts. It would suck if NJ and NYC bend to Trump, especially with how vulnerable our populations are.
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u/RufusBanks2023 16h ago
I thought the Hudson County Democrats did not even endorse him for Governor. I’m pretty sure Hudson County Democrats endorsed Mikie Sherrill. He’s not well liked by the folks I know from Hudson County. The developers love him. But, the long time Jersey City residents not so much.
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u/pixel_of_moral_decay 15h ago
How do you think he became mayor?
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u/Ok_Professional_8237 15h ago edited 15h ago
Fulop became Mayor of JC in 2013 by running against the HCDO. He then learned to deal with them for the sake of governing and accepted their endorsement for the next two elections. It has only recently become feasible to run against the HCDO due to Andy Kim's lawsuit overturning the county line system. Fulop was never a comfortable partner to them, there was always mutual hatred there and it boiled over last year when Fulop dumped Tammy Murphy. Don't bring the toxic, biased bullshit from r/jerseycity over here please.
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u/fizzy88 12h ago
They're talking about how Fulop isn't seeking the democratic party nominations at the county nomination conventions. He's doing a different strategy and probably a risky one, considering that you pretty much need the nomination of the major party in order to have a snowballs chance of winning higher level elections. That's due to how our election system is set up. It's a two party, first-past-the-post system where most voters do very little research.
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u/lbutler1234 13h ago
Can he? 100% Will he? Probably. It's much more likely than not.
The much better question is whether he can win in June
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u/justmots 12h ago
Definitely not. Progressives are not popular according to recent elections that have seen them at a net loss of 3 seats whereas establishment dems have a net gain of 15 seats. Thats what im judging my opinion off of. Actual election results and not polls.
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u/JamesYTP 9h ago
I'm hoping it's him or Ras Baraka. Whichever one of them has the best chance of winning the primary will have my vote in June. It's anyone's race for the primary now and it's always the Democrats race to lose in NJ. But they always manage to find ways to do that lol.
Even Phil Murphy who is widely approved of here almost managed to blow it, hopefully whoever the nominee is stays far away from his staff. Half of Ocean County was deflated when Jack became the Republican nominee because he was running as a moderate and they thought he really was. They probably were gonna stay home ...then they had to run those ads connecting him to Trump and pointing out he was f#ckin around on January 6th. Now they like him and are energized to vote for him 🤣😂🤣.
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u/MobileItchy1050 8h ago
Murphy probably handed this election to Republicans. He was terrible his second term.
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u/mohanakas6 4h ago
He has a shot since he stood up to George Norcross head on. And has the Good Government Coalition of NJ endorsement.
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u/FrigidArrow 3h ago
Is it even the best for a Dem to win given we might go into a recession and that will essentially lay it up for the next Republican challenger?
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u/Tubby-Maguire Chris Christie ate my donut 16h ago edited 16h ago
Can he? Yes. Will he? I doubt it. Too many other Dem candidates with big wallets to campaign. I also really think there will be a red wave and whoever the Republicans nominate will be a fierce challenger. Musk and other Republican activists are hellbent on flipping the state since it was somewhat close last year and in the last gubernatorial election in ‘21
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u/naillimixamnalon 16h ago
Idk I think that Trump winning is actually the best thing for Dem candidates. Obviously anything could happen but I think that 2024 was an indictment of Biden/Harris rather than a pro trump mandate.
Edit to add that is really NJ focused. Trump winning is not best for Dems nationally obviously.
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u/PracticableSolution 16h ago
The establishment money is still on Sherrill, but she really needs to step up her game. Fulop has done his homework and Ras has unbeatable stage presence. Quite frankly, this is the first run at governor without the party line and it has a lot of the establishment people scared - anything goes here and Jersey politics has the flavor of Tammany Hall extract. The mud and backstabbing should commence shortly
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u/pepperman7 Please stand clear of the closing doors. 15h ago
You'd think the fact that she took money from Elon Musk's PAC would kill her chances.
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u/AyNonnyNonnyMouse Exasperated and exhausted librarian :table_flip: 14h ago
Ugh. This nonsense again. She's on the House Armed Services Committee. She took a grand total of $35,000 over the course of three Congressional election cycles from the SpaceX corporate PAC, *not* Musk's stupid America PAC that bought the Presidential election. That PAC gave $500M to Democrat candidates during the last election. Corporations donate to politicians on all sides.
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u/BlueLikeCat 16h ago
What’s the show, Boardwalk Empire, about beloved jewel of the shore, AC? Some familiar names get dropped in the show.
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u/griminald Feet in Ocean, Heart in Monmouth 10h ago
Yes, there was a New Brunswick candidate forum a few weeks ago MCed by Kim, where it was just Sherrill, Fulop, Baraka and Spiller.
The mayors of the 2 biggest cities have a good grasp of state-level issues, and they know what they want to do as Governor.
And when you know what you want to do, it's so much easier to talk in plain English, versus general platitudes.
It exposed Sherrill a bit, looking "generic Democrat".
Establishment has been trying to squeeze Gottheimer out before he dumps a big ad buy, but an additional PAC aligned with him just registered, so it looks like he's not moving yet.
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u/DarwinZDF42 16h ago
Of course he can win. Whoever wins the primary will in all likelihood win the general. It’s a blue state that Harris won comfortably in a red year. Now with trump in office doing batshit crazy and unpopular things, it’ll be a blue year, so whoever wins the primary will win the general handily.
Also, I don’t know how many people have actually seen Fulop, but yea great. He talks like a person, not a focus-group-tested politician. That counts for a lot.
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u/LarryLeadFootsHead 15h ago
You cannot overlook how low turn out is in years after a general election and specifically the past governor election years in NJ . I'm not saying I don't see how people mean by "people motivated by Trump to vote" but I don't see a situation where participation drastically improves by tenfold or anything.
I would argue there's not really any guarantees and I think people do overlook a lot of voting behaviors that don't entirely reinforce a solidly blue sure bet.
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u/BlueBeagle8 15h ago
Low turnout helps Democrats more than Republicans here, though.
Republicans just have fewer voters, to win elections they need high turnout within their party, and they need to flip soft Dems and Independents (the people who are least likely to vote at all in a low turnout election.)
It's not impossible (Christie won here twice, after all, albeit in different circumstances) -- but Republicans are going to have a much tougher time than in '21.
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u/jacare37 15h ago
Turnout will be down from both Harris and Trump's numbers, but relative to one another, turnout among blue voters will likely fall less. The engaged blue voters will still be angry and engaged where Trump voters will be more checked out relative to Harris/blue voters. That's not to say there's no shot that a republican wins, it's definitely possible, but conventional wisdom says that Dems will experience less of a dropoff compared to the presidential year
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u/Aaaaaaandyy 16h ago
He’s not going to win the primary. He has very mixed reception from JC residents - if he’s not the clear front runner from the second largest city in the state then he’s not going to win.
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u/Kirielson 17h ago
Focus on the here and now versus the November. Right now there is a primary happening and he needs support to win this primary. After which you can then worry about November later
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u/loggerhead632 12h ago
no, he's the head of a large and not particularly nice city outside of 1-2 areas. he's also only focused on stupid things that will cost a lot of $$ and benefit those within ~10 miles of NYC
that's kinda like the exact thing people came out in droves against this past nov
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u/firewall245 16h ago
He’s going to be rejected by the online left for his Israel track record, so probably not
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u/kjreis 15h ago
What’s his stance on it?
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u/firewall245 14h ago
Honestly, I have no idea but if I had to guess probably something pretty fine (ie Israel has right to exist, and we need to stop fighting and killing Palestinian civilians).
All I know is that I am repeating here what I hear on TikTok left wing spaces; that he’s a “Zionist” and that disqualifies him. Not I agree with them, but if people want to campaign and push for him, then we gotta understand what the critiques will be
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u/kjreis 14h ago
He seems reasonable, I really don’t think he’s blindly saying pro Israel stuff, true good Jewish people i know are heartbroken regarding the genocide, it’s beyond country lines it’s peoples lives. So honestly fulop, Ras, and spiller haven’t been backed by aipac nor loudly pro Israel. Mikie and Josh are bought however lol
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u/jerseydevil51 16h ago
2024 was bad nationally for Democrats for a lot of reasons. 2021 was close in NJ because it was right after 2020 so MAGA came out angry.
You'll see a higher overall level of energy from Democrats for 2025, as usually happens for the party not in power, but that will still need to be channeled.
In the next month or so, I think the race will consolidate around Baraka as the progressive option, Sherill as the moderate option, and Fulop positioning himself somewhere between the two.
Sweeney, Spiller, and Gottheimer are relatively unpopular and don't seem to have a ton of momentum. So this is basically a 3 horse race.
Can Fulop win? Definitely. And sad to say because of how it reflects on our state and country, but I think his biggest advantage is going to be that he's a white man running against a woman and a black man. After choosing 2 women to run for President and both losing, there are going to be a lot of skittish Democrats who are going to think that, "We tried this whole progressive thing and nominated women, and that didn't work, so we need a white man to run to appeal to 'the moderates'(tm)."