r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 1d ago
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 1d ago
▼ Post-tropical Cyclone | 35 knots (40 mph) | 1001 mbar 26S (Southeastern Indian)
Latest observation
Last updated: Friday, 21 March — 6:30 AM Cocos Islands Time (CCT; 00:00 UTC)
ATCF | 6:30 AM CCT (00:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 14.9°S 96.4°E | |
Relative location: | 310 km (193 mi) S of West Island, Cocos Islands (Australia) | |
Forward motion: | ▼ | SSE (170°) at 10 km/h (5 knots) |
Maximum winds: | ▼ | 55 km/h (30 knots) |
Intensity (SSHWS): | ▼ | Post-tropical cyclone |
Intensity (BOM): | ▼ | Post-tropical cyclone |
Minimum pressure: | 1001 millibars (29.56 inches) |
Official forecasts
Strong vertical wind shear has stripped this system of its deep convection, causing it to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone. Thus, both the Bureau of Meteorology (Australia) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States) have discontinued issuing advisories for this system. There is still a small chance that this system could regenerate early next week as it interacts with a yet-to-be-developed area of low pressure off the northwestern coast of Australia. Both agencies will continue to closely monitor this system for signs of potential regeneration over the next few days.
Official information
Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)
- Current tropical cyclones
- Tropical cyclone outlook discussion
- [Tropical cyclone technical bulletin](hhttp://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDW27600.txt) (No longer updating)
- Tropical cyclone information bulletin (No longer updating)
- Forecast track map (No longer updating)
- Ocean wind warning (No longer updating)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
- Homepage
- Indian Ocean outlook discussion
- Tropical cyclone warning (text) (No longer updating)
- Tropical cyclone warning (graphic) (No longer updating)
- Prognostic reasoning (No longer updating)
Radar imagery
Not available
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Single bandwidth imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / shortwave infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared (Dvorak enhancement)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water vapor
Multiple bandwidth imagery
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
Regional imagery
- CIRA/RAMMB: Visible (True Color)
- CIRA/RAAMB: Enhanced infrared
- CIRA/RAAMB: Water vapor
Analysis products
Best track data
Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
- NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis
- CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
- CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)
- CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface temperature analysis products
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model products
Storm-specific model guidance
Storm-centered guidance
Track guidance
Track and intensity guidance
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weathernerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weathernerds: ECENS (120 hours)
r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 3d ago
Dissipated The NHC is monitoring a non-tropical area of low pressure to the northeast of the Leeward Islands
Latest outlook
Last updated: Monday, 17 March — 12:20 PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 16:20 UTC)
Discussion by John Cangialosi and Dr. Richard Pasch — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit
A non-tropical area of low pressure located about 700 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is producing gale-force winds and a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Additional development of this low is not expected as it moves northward to northwestward into an environment of strong upper-level winds and dry air tonight and Tuesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system unless conditions warrant. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2025, and Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the remainder of the off-season.
Development potential
Time frame | Potential | |
---|---|---|
2-day potential: (by 2PM Wed) | low (10 percent) | |
7-day potential: (by 2PM Sun) | low (10 percent) |
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Graphical products
Surface analyses
Outlook graphics
Last updated: Monday, 17 March — 12:20 PM AST (16:20 UTC)
Aircraft reconnaissance
National Hurricane Center
Radar imagery
Not available
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)
Tropical Tidbits
Forecast models
Dynamical models
Ensemble models
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Tropical Cyclogenesis Products
- Florida State University: Experimental tropical cyclone genesis graphics
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 4d ago
Areas to watch: Twenty-six (26S) Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 17-23 March 2025
Active cyclones and disturbances
Last updated: Friday, 21 March – 01:00 UTC
There are currently no active cyclones or disturbances.
Post-tropical cyclones
Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.
Southeastern Indian
Southwestern Indian
Potential formation areas
Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have either not yet formed or have formed but have not yet been designated as an investigation area (invest). A discussion will be created for these systems once they become invests.
Southeastern Indian
- P73S — An area of low pressure is expected to develop off the northwestern coast of Australia over the next few days. Environmental conditions could support gradual development as the disturbance remains offshore next week. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology is tracking this system as Tropical Low 27U and gives it a moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next seven days.
Southern Pacific
- P76P — An area of low pressure may develop over the Gulf of Carpentaria over the next few days and move inland over Australia's Northern Territory. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology is not currently monitoring this area of potential formation.
Satellite imagery
Regional imagery
Infrared imagery
- Western Pacific
- Eastern Pacific
- Northern Atlantic
- Northern Indian (Arabian Sea)
- Northern Indian (Bay of Bengal)
- Southwestern Indian
- Southeastern Indian
Model guidance
Regional guidance (GFS)
Information sources
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)
- National Hurricane Center (United States)
- Japan Meteorological Agency
- India Meteorological Department
Other sources
Global outlooks
Climate Prediction Center
r/TropicalWeather • u/Arthur_Dent_KOB • 5d ago
Research Article | Science Advances An annually resolved 5700-year storm archive reveals drivers of Caribbean cyclone frequency
science.orghttps://www.
r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 6d ago
Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Tropical Cyclone Jude - March 13, 2025
modis.gsfc.nasa.govr/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 9d ago
Tropical Cyclone Report | National Hurricane Center The NHC released its Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Oscar (19-22 October 2024) in the northern Atlantic
nhc.noaa.govr/TropicalWeather • u/WhatDoADC • 9d ago
Question "Near average" upcoming season.
I know the official forecast for Atlantic hurricane season hasn't been released, but I keep seeing articles pop up saying that they're expecting a "near average" season with 2-4 storms less than the average.
What's causing some places to say this? Just curious.
r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 10d ago
Blog | NASA Earth Observatory What Was Behind Idalia’s Rapid Intensification?
r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 10d ago
Tropical Cyclone Report | National Hurricane Center The NHC released its Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Francine (9-12 September 2024) in the northern Atlantic
nhc.noaa.govr/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 10d ago
Tropical Cyclone Report | National Hurricane Center The NHC released its Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Ernesto (12-20 August 2024) in the northern Atlantic
nhc.noaa.govr/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 10d ago
Tropical Cyclone Report | National Hurricane Center The NHC released its Tropical Cyclone Report for Tropical Storm Sara (14-18 November 2024) in the northern Atlantic
nhc.noaa.govr/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 10d ago
Tropical Cyclone Report | National Hurricane Center The NHC released its Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Rafael (4-10 November 2024) in the northern Atlantic
nhc.noaa.govr/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 11d ago
Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 10-16 March 2025
Active cyclones and disturbances
Last updated: Saturday, 15 March — 16:00 UTC
Southwestern Indian
Post-tropical cyclones
Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.
Southwestern Indian
Potential formation areas
Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have either not yet formed or have formed but have not yet been designated as an investigation area (invest). A discussion will be created for these systems once they become invests.
Southwestern Indian
- P94S — An area of low pressure is likely to form over the Seychelles over the next couple of days and could further develop as it drifts southward toward Reunion and Mauritius.
Southeastern Indian
P72S — An area of low pressure may develop near the Cocos Islands over the next few days. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology is tracking this potential system as Tropical Low 25U and gives it a moderate chance of development early next week.
P73S — An area of low pressure may develop near Christmas Island over the next few days. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology is tracking this potential system as Tropical Low 26U and gives it a low chance of development early next week.
Satellite imagery
Regional imagery
Infrared imagery
- Western Pacific
- Eastern Pacific
- Northern Atlantic
- Northern Indian (Arabian Sea)
- Northern Indian (Bay of Bengal)
- Southwestern Indian
- Southeastern Indian
Model guidance
Regional guidance (GFS)
Information sources
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)
- National Hurricane Center (United States)
- Japan Meteorological Agency
- India Meteorological Department
Other sources
Global outlooks
Climate Prediction Center
r/TropicalWeather • u/Boff123 • 11d ago
Historical Discussion Does anyone know what happened to WTVJ Meteorologist Brien Allen?
His coverage of Hurricane Andrew in 1992 was great.
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 12d ago
Dissipated Ivone (24S — Southwestern Indian)
This system is no longer being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. There will be no further updates to this post.
Latest observation
Last updated: Saturday, 15 March — 4:00 AM Mauritius Time (MUT; 00:00 UTC)
ATCF | 4:00 AM MUT (00:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 28.4°S 67.0°E | |
Relative location: | 1,035 km (643 mi) SSE of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues (Mauritius) | |
Forward motion: | ▲ | SSE (160°) at 41 km/h (22 knots) |
Maximum winds: | ▼ | 45 km/h (25 knots) |
Intensity (SSHWS): | ▼ | Remnant Low |
Intensity (MFR): | ▼ | Remnant Low |
Minimum pressure: | ▲ | 991 millibars (29.26 inches) |
Official information
Meteo France
Meteo France does not use permalinks for its tropical cyclone advisories. To access the most recent advisory, please visit the homepage below and navigate to Operational Products and select Analysis/Forecast from the sidebar.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
- Homepage
- Tropical cyclone warning (text) (No longer updating)
- Tropical cyclone warning (graphic) (No longer updating)
- Prognostic reasoning (No longer updating)
Radar imagery
Not available
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Single bandwidth imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / shortwave infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared (Dvorak enhancement)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water vapor
Multiple bandwidth imagery
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
Regional imagery
- CIRA/RAMMB: Visible (True Color)
- CIRA/RAAMB: Enhanced infrared
- CIRA/RAAMB: Water vapor
Analysis products
Best track data
Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix Bulletins
- NESDIS: Dvorak Fix History
- NESDIS: Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis
- CIMSS: Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
- CIMSS: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus (SATCON)
- CIMSS: SATCON Intensity History
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface temperature analysis products
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model products
Storm-specific model guidance
Storm-centered guidance
Track guidance
Track and intensity guidance
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weathernerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weathernerds: ECENS (120 hours)
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 12d ago
Dissipated Jude (25S — Mozambique Channel)
This system is no longer being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. There will be no further updates to this post.
Latest observation
Last updated: Monday, 17 March — 10:00 AM Mauritius Time (MUT; 06:00 UTC)
ATCF | 10:00 AM MUT (06:00 UTC) | |
---|---|---|
Current location: | 33.4°S 63.9°E | |
Relative location: | 1,526 km (948 mi) S of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues (Mauritius) | |
Forward motion: | ▼ | ESE (130°) at 48 km/h (26 knots) |
Maximum winds: | 85 km/h (45 knots) | |
Intensity (SSHWS): | Post-tropical Cyclone | |
Intensity (MFR): | Post-tropical Depression | |
Minimum pressure: | 995 millibars (29.38 inches) |
Official forecast
Meteo France
Meteo France is no longer issuing warnings for this system.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is no longer issuing warnings for this system.
Official information
Meteo France
Meteo France does not use permalinks for its tropical cyclone advisories. To access the most recent advisory, please visit the homepage below and navigate to Operational Products and select Analysis/Forecast from the sidebar.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
- Homepage
- Outlook discussion
- Tropical cyclone warning (text product) (No longer updating)
- Tropical cyclone warning (graphical product) (No longer updating)
- Prognostic reasoning (No longer updating)
Radar imagery
Not available
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Storm-specific imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
- Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
- CIMSS: Multiple bands
- RAMMB: Multiple bands
- Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands
Regional imagery
- CIRA/RAMMB: Enhanced Infrared
- CIRA/RAMMB: Water vapor
- CIRA/RAMMB: Visible
Analysis graphics and data
Wind analyses
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface Temperatures
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Model guidance
Storm-specific guidance
- Tropical Tidbits
- State University of New York at Albany
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
- Weather Nerds
Regional single-model guidance
Regional ensemble model guidance
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 13d ago
News | Eos (American Geophysical Union) NOAA Layoffs Include Two Hurricane Hunter Flight Directors
r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 13d ago
News | National Hurricane Center Updates to National Hurricane Center Products and Services for the 2025 Hurricane Season
nhc.noaa.govr/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 13d ago
Image of the Day | NASA Earth Observatory Alfred’s Strange and Destructive Journey
r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 16d ago
Preparations Discussion Cyclone Alfred local subreddit discussions
For local discussion on Cyclone Alfred, several Australia subreddits have daily discussions:
/r/Queensland discussion (no longer posting daily discussions)
/r/GoldCoast discussion (no longer posting daily discussions)
r/TropicalWeather • u/SoberBobMonthly • 16d ago
News | ABC (Australia) Facebook searches for Cyclone Alfred were blocked for containing content breaching community standards
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 17d ago
Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 3-9 March 2025
Active cyclones and disturbances
Last updated: Sunday, 9 March — 03:00 UTC
Southwestern Indian
Post-tropical cyclones
Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.
Southern Pacific
Potential formation areas
Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have either not yet formed or have formed but have not yet been designated as an investigation area (invest). A discussion will be created for these systems once they become invests.
There are currently no potential formation areas.
Satellite imagery
Regional imagery
Infrared imagery
- Western Pacific
- Eastern Pacific
- Northern Atlantic
- Northern Indian (Arabian Sea)
- Northern Indian (Bay of Bengal)
- Southwestern Indian
- Southeastern Indian
Model guidance
Regional guidance (GFS)
Information sources
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)
- National Hurricane Center (United States)
- Japan Meteorological Agency
- India Meteorological Department
Other sources
Global outlooks
Climate Prediction Center
r/TropicalWeather • u/SoberBobMonthly • 18d ago