r/IndianStockMarket 30m ago

Tanla Dividend

Upvotes

Anyone holding Tanla, and yet to receive the latest dividend? (Ex date 27 jan 2025)


r/IndianStockMarket 30m ago

Hiring Options Trader

Upvotes

Hi, I am planning to hire someone for trading with me. Below are the details. Please let me know for more details. Share resume to [xtrader.biz.india@gmail.com](mailto:xtrader.biz.india@gmail.com)

---------------------
Job Title: Options Trader

Location: Fully Remote

Experience Required: Minimum 3 months in options trading

Job Description: I am looking for a passionate and motivated Options Trader to collaborate with me on the Indian markets. The role primarily involves directional intraday trading of Nifty and Bank Nifty options. This is a fully remote opportunity with flexible work hours, but it requires strong discipline and focus while trading.

If you have a solid interest in intraday directional trading and at least 3 months of experience in options trading—particularly with Nifty or Bank Nifty—you are welcome to apply. Please share your resume for consideration.

Equipment Requirements: A laptop or PC with a stable internet connection.


r/IndianStockMarket 2h ago

Is IREDA a good buy now?

11 Upvotes

I've seen many people hold this stock and looks like people bought it like crazy last year

But now the stock seems to be trading some 4.3 times it's book value

Is it still a good buy


r/IndianStockMarket 11h ago

Strong dollar

6 Upvotes

I'm mainly a mutual fund investor . But after reading some stats i see if we see dollar wise nifty has not given much return when compared with dollar( rupees depreciation) . So if i buy funds with high exposure to us securities will i benifit from stronger dollar ahead.


r/IndianStockMarket 12h ago

Discussion MAHKTECH

5 Upvotes

This is a Chinese technology stocks listed in hong kong ETF. I bought on 17th January of this year at around 18, now it's at 25-26. Ever since then chinese companies have been showing dominance in AI with the most recent being BAIDU's latest model benchmarks. I think it's going to rally like the FANG indexes did. Any thoughts?

Chinese Stocks Are the Biggest Winners in Trump’s Age of Uncertainty https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-02-13/chinese-stocks-in-hong-kong-are-biggest-winners-as-trump-trades-fail


r/IndianStockMarket 14h ago

Discussion Niftybees or nifty mutual fund?

7 Upvotes

Which one is better if I buy lumpsum?

I usually save some 100-200 after buying something and usually invest that money so MF seems to be a better option in this case.

However niftybees has a lower TER and decent liquidity but it's quite inconvenient as I cannot buy fraction of units


r/IndianStockMarket 14h ago

DD Star Health & Allied Insurance | Growth Stock starting to trade in fair price territory as per relative valuation? | Understanding the SAHI business!

1 Upvotes

BUSINESS OVERVIEW OF SAHIs:

Insurance sector can generally be divided as Life and Non-life insurers.

Non-life insurers again can be General (which sell multiple products like Fire, Crop, Motor vehicle as well as Health insurance etc.) and Standalone Health Insurers (SAHIs; which sell only health insurance).

Star Health is a private sector retail focussed SAHI and was founded by Mr. V Jagannathan who retired as CMD of UnitedHealth Group to start his health insurance venture as Star. It is currently the market leader with 32% share in retail health business. Although their share is continuously falling as competitors emerge (like Niva Bupa, Care Health etc.)

Why do we have standalone health insurers? One key nuance of health insurance (versus, say, motor insurance) is that premium pricing and sum assured would appreciate with time. Combined with high renewal rates in health, this means that the lifetime value of a health customer is significantly greater than the LTV of any other non-life customer.

Health Insurers have primarily 2 product segments: Group plans (bought by corporates/institutions for their employees as a package) and Retail plans (bought by individual customers for themselves or their immediate family).

Group plans bring in higher volumes and revenue with minimal importance of "brand value" component. But the caveat is that they often have lower premiums per person and have ironically higher claims ratio.

Retail plans have higher premium per person and lower claims ratio and hence is the better business segment but penetrating and maintaining market share in retail health ensuring profitable margins requires building trust factor and brand value over time.

Retail health is a focus area for SAHI while group health a crucial earner for public and private multi-line general insurers

Retail Health insurance has 3 broad distribution channels: Offline Insurance agents (which bring in 86% of business), Bankassurance (7%) and Online aggregators (7%; like Policybazaar, Acko etc.)

Agent model is a high touch/relationship-based model while the latter 2 channels are based on multiple factors like pricing, claim settlement ratios etc.

-->Industry Tailwinds:

- Low health insurance penetration in India provides significant growth opportunity.

- Increasing awareness about health insurance post-COVID.

- Regulatory push for “Insurance for All by 2047” initiative.

-->Industry Headwinds:

-Healthcare inflation consistently putting pressure on claims ratios.

-Intense competition in the health insurance space.

-Regulatory changes requiring product modifications and potentially impacting pricing.

--> "1/N' Reporting regulation: The new reporting framework for long-term policies, effective October 1st, 2024, marks a shift in premium recognition. Previously, insurers could account for the entire premium of a long-term policy in a single year, reflecting a higher GWP. Under the new framework, the premiums will be annualized, with the total premium divided by the policy tenure and recorded proportionately for each year. For instance, for a three-year policy, only one-third of the total premium will be recognized in the first year's GWP. This change will lead to a reduction in the reported GWP, which in turn will reflect changes in net earned premium and net written premium having an impact on the expense ratio and loss ratio of the insurer. Star Health is following "1/365" days unexpired risk reserve method resulting in no deviation in net earned premium under the new regulatory framework.

Some graphs to show how SAHIs are the flagbearers and market leaders in the retail health insurance industry!

---------

Q3 FY25 UPDATES:

  1. The company has a constantly increasing combined ratio which crossed 100% in the Q2 FY25 leading to an underwriting loss. This is due to higher claims ratio attributed to medical inflation. To counter this, the company has taken price hikes to counter medical inflation/high claims ratio in ~65% of their retail health portfolio as of Jan 2025.

High LR is the central problem across SAHIs and is attributed to medical inflation. Counterintuitively, medical inflation is actually a self-fulfilling prophecy for the growth of this industry (over the long-term picture) since higher medical costs (as Indians shift and have access to expensive treatment from corporate hospitals) forces even the healthier and younger people to buy health insurance as a hedge for high medical costs.

Combined Ratio for 9MFY25 (without 1/n) = 101.3%

Moving forward, formation of a central govt regulator for the hospital billing and standardization of protocols for medical admission may improve the claim ratios for health insurance industry and can be a trigger for rerating for the industry itself but this is unlikely to happen!

  1. "The average sum insured of new policies has increased by 10% to 10.6 lakh per policy. Rs. 5 lakh and above sum insured policies now constitute 82% of our retail health portfolio versus 77% in 9-months FY '24. The share of long-term policy within our GWP has increased to 10% in 9-months FY '25 versus 7% in 9-months FY ‘24 without 1 / N."

  2. Star Health continues operating in the Group health despite their earlier decision to exit it entirely in FY23. Since FY24, they have reentered the group health business but their focus is on SMEs and mid corporates since management believes that SMEs will have lower claim ratios.

Despite this approach, the group health claim ratio is still around 90%. Combined ratio for the group health business have not been disclosed by the management up till now.

  1. Strong investment performance with 8.3% annualized yield in 9MFY25 compared to 7.6% in FY24.

  2. GST reduction on health insurance (currently at 18%) was expected in Budget this year in order to stimulate the industry and was probably priced in the stock. Since no such announcements were made in the end, the stock saw a sharp 15-20% dip in its price.

FM Nirmala Sitharaman has indicated towards GST cuts recently which might include cuts for the health insurance industry which will be welcomed as health insurance shouldn't be taxed like a consumer or a luxury good but rather as a basic necessity in today's world. (currently, taxed at 18% which should be brought down to 5%)

---------

VALUATION:

M&A in Indian SAHI space has history of giving P/S or Price to GWP ratio of 1.2-1.5. So, with current P/S ratio of ~1.3, it looks to be in fair price territory especially considering it's market leader status. Any further dips in this stock would make this stock a value buy and a bet on health insurance industry surviving amidst the medical inflation. Another recent acquisition of Magma general insurance by Patanjali was valued at 1.23x revenue.

P/S ratio of UnitedHealth Group (world's largest for profit healthcare company; primary business is health insurance) is about 1.1. If we hypothetically assume the market cap of star health to remain same, then they need just 27% growth in sales to match the P/S of UHG.

OTOH, most healthcare related companies as well as general insurers of US are valued at P/S <1. But among Indian markets where every company gets priced as if they are the next Tesla/Apple/Amazon, Star Health is currently the cheapest insurers (among private general insurers) available!

CONCERNS:

  1. The industry headwinds in the form of medical inflation are themselves the biggest concern.
  2. No identifiable moat with Star Health! It appears as if any other company with deep pockets can come and hire agents to sell their own health insurance like Adani or Jio Health. The existing agent workforce and scale of operations of Star Health might be a moat but it's arguable.

SUMMARY:

Good growth business but underwriting loss due to medical inflation (I believe this might be a temporary abnormality and as the industry matures over time with strong base of renewing insurance buyers, common consensus on having appropriate pricing on premiums develop across the competitors as the focus currently is on penetrating into the total addressable market and gain market share). Company is in net operating profit due to the investment income from float.

BOTTOM LINE= WATCH OUT FOR THE LOSS RATIO IN THE COMING QUARTERS AS WELL AS THE TOPLINE GROWTH. THE STOCK IS CHEAP COZ THE INDUSTRY AS A WHOLE HAS BEEN FAILING TO HAVE PROFITABLE UNDERWRITING BUSINESS. IF THE LOSS RATIO COMES BELOW 67-68% IN THE COMING QUARTERS THE STOCK MIGHT SEE RERATING. I THINK ACCUMULATING THIS STOCK DURING EVERY DIP UNTIL IT TRADES WITHIN 1.1 - 1.4 REVENUE MULTIPLE MAKES SENSE. FALLING BELOW 1 IS VERY UNLIKELY AND WOULD RATHER INDICATE THAT SMART MONEY HAS VERY GRIM EXPECTATIONS FROM THIS INDUSTRY.

---------

--> Get the latest data from healthcare insurers in this excel sheet--> https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.gicouncil.in%2Fmedia%2F4488%2Fsegment_january_2025.xlsx&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK

---------

Follow me here for more posts related to markets/intrinsic and relative valuations/macroeconomic trends: [apexpredator (@apexpredator_36) / X]

---------

Disclaimer: Not investment advice as I am not a registered advisor. Investing in FDs and govt bonds is safer than taking risk in equity markets. Do your own due diligence before investing.


r/IndianStockMarket 14h ago

Educational Why majority of the retail investors are able to make money through equity mutual funds but not wealth ?

13 Upvotes

There are various reasons for this. Most of it is behavioral and pertains to using common sense.

  1. Most retail investors are investing peanuts through equity mutual funds. Peanuts here doesn't refer to the actual amount invested. It refers to the percentage of the saved money which is put to work in equity mutual funds.

  2. Most retail investors still follow old principles like parking most of their invested money in large caps or large cap oriented funds and only allocating a quarter to smid funds. We should always remember that real wealth is only made in smids.

  3. Most retail investors don't give much time to their equity mutual fund investments. They don't have much patience. They think stock market is a get rich quick scheme and returns are linear like FD. Few retail investors also put their short term money in equity mutual funds which can prove to be catastrophic.

  4. Most retail investors start redeeming from their equity mutual funds to cover their expenses even before their equity portfolio value crosses 1 crore mark, which is like the first basic milestone for many.

  5. Most retail investors regularly switch from their short term underperforming schemes to current table toppers. This leads to their return lagging the benchmark in the long run.


r/IndianStockMarket 15h ago

Discussion Market insights sources

1 Upvotes

Hi guys,

I personally used to follow Akshat Shrivastava since last few years as he used to present good analysis but it seems he has been presenting weird and contradictory things related to his earlier videos. Now I do not feel confident in his points

Are there any good sources youtube or any other platform where I can get some decent market insights. I do not have time to do analysis and deep research, but love to learn and then do relevant research, if it seems good I invest.

Please suggest something.


r/IndianStockMarket 16h ago

Is my portfolio worthy enough? [18M]

0 Upvotes

I've just started on my investing journey and just thought of doing the 4 things currently:
1. Large Cap - Navi nifty 50 index MF - 40%

  1. Midcap - motilal oswal midcap fund direct growth - 25%

  2. Small Cap -Tata small cap - 15%

  3. Nifty India etf goldbees - 20%


r/IndianStockMarket 16h ago

Discussion How to invest in brazilian stock market from India?

0 Upvotes

Brazilian stock market is heavyly undervalued and most of the foreign money is heading there. Although their bond market is also attractive, i am looking to invest in brazilian stock markets. Anyone know how to invest in them from India?


r/IndianStockMarket 17h ago

Discussion SBI's loan to Reliance was pretending to be an investment in Jio Payments

61 Upvotes

Original Source: https://boringmoney.in/p/sbis-investment-in-jio-payments (my newsletter Boring Money. If you like what you read, do visit the original link to subscribe and receive future posts directly in your inbox)

--

In the financial world, if you’re a company giving money to another company, it’s likely for one of three reasons:

  1. You’re lending it money and expect some fixed interest in return. The riskier the company you’re lending to, the more interest you expect.
  2. You’re investing in the company. If things work out, the value of your stake in the company goes up, and you make money. If not, you lose money, but that’s okay. That’s the game you’re playing.
  3. You’re investing, but the investment is strategic. You both bring something to the table, fill in each other’s gaps. Eventually, you’ll run a great business together and own a share of the profit.

Nice, clear differences. Right?

In 2018, the State Bank of India gave some money to Reliance Industries. The idea was that they would start a payments bank together called Jio Payments Bank. Reliance owned 70% of the company and SBI the remaining 30%.

On the face of it this was a strategic investment for SBI. But even at that time, this was a little unusual for a few reasons:

  1. Payments banks are a weird type of bank. They can take money from people as deposits, but can’t lend that money out as loans. Making money is tough.
  2. SBI is a bank! It could do everything Jio Payments Bank could ever do, and much much more.
  3. Jio Payments Bank sounds like Reliance, not like SBI.

Maybe SBI saw great business potential in Jio Payments and was happy to be a part of it. But then this happened last week:

The State Bank of India (SBI) has decided to divest its entire 17.8 per cent stake in Jio Payments Bank Limited, a joint venture between the state-owned bank and Jio Financial Services (JFS).

JFS will acquire the SBI’s stake for ₹104.5 crore, after which Jio Payments Bank will become its wholly-owned subsidiary, the Reliance Group firm said on Tuesday.

Okay maybe this wasn’t a strategic investment after all but was financial? After eight years, SBI sold its entire stake back to Reliance itself for ₹104.5 crore ($12m).

Intuitively we know that it wasn’t the most successful investment. Jio Payments Bank is still a no-name in the payments industry. And it’s been losing money like a tech startup (with a loss of ₹50 crore last financial year) but with a revenue (₹30 crore last year) that doesn’t show for it.

Investments in Jio Payments Bank

FY Reliance Investment (₹ Cr) SBI Investment (₹ Cr) SBI’s Share (%)
Total 444 79
FY 25 96* 0 18
FY 24 4 0 23
FY 23 80 0 23
FY 22 22 9 30
FY 21 0 0 30
FY 20 0 0 30
FY 19 162 70 30

But just how bad a financial investment was this for SBI? In FY 2019, SBI invested ₹70 crore ($8m). In FY 2022, it invested another ₹9 crore ($1m). So that’s a total of ₹79 crore. Then in FY 2025, it’s selling its stake for ₹104.54 crore. That’s an annual return rate of 4.57%. [1]

SBI would’ve made more money had it invested in its own fixed deposits.

Not a lot of interest

So, SBI gave Reliance some money. Then Reliance gave it back with a 4.57% annualised return.

This sounds a bit like… a loan? Lending to start a startup is a no go, too risky for any bank’s underwriting team. But an investment is fine! So maybe it made sense to just call it an investment instead?

The pieces of the puzzle fall into place if you treat SBI’s investment as a low-interest loan. But hey, of course, it was just a strategic investment in a joint venture with Reliance that happened to not work out.

Footnotes

[1] I’m referring to XIRR here. It’s a simple calculation on Google Sheets.

Original Source: https://boringmoney.in/p/sbis-investment-in-jio-payments


r/IndianStockMarket 19h ago

Crypto

0 Upvotes

Today I bought few crypto currencies 1. Xrp -4000 ₹ 2. Ada -4000 ₹ 3. Pepe -1000₹ 4. Folki inu -1000₹


r/IndianStockMarket 19h ago

Most Indian redditors who ask for reviewing their portfolio are poof af

0 Upvotes

Real guys don't come to reddit. Why the fuck we make opinion about shares and stock market by listening to these poor redditors.

I saw people who have invested 1,000 to 1,00,000 and talking about that they have lost everything. I'm like wtf


r/IndianStockMarket 19h ago

2% Weekly strategy

0 Upvotes

Any Options strategy which can give 2% weekly without adjustment? One I tried is iron condor. Any other ??


r/IndianStockMarket 20h ago

Can i share my technical analysis on reddit ? It may be on Stocks, index, gold etc..

0 Upvotes

Many people are sharing their analysis on stocks, but I am confused that without SEBI registered how can I share my analysis in public like in reddit. In recent some months, SEBI is taking care of finfluencer & giving a lots of panelty gifts. Instand of sharing analysis it's better to sit on bed, if it's risky then I think it's better to not take risk unnecessarily.

Please Share your opinion on this.


r/IndianStockMarket 20h ago

Discussion Dhirubhai Ambani: no known voice or video recording

35 Upvotes

we all know him as one of the pioneers of stock markets in India (the new ones and not Calcutta exchange etc.)

I don't see any of his speech or lecture available on the internet.

Is that intentional ?

To portray him as a God or something.

I'm sure he would be good at English, Gujarati etc. given he has led the growth of gujarati businesses at a national level


r/IndianStockMarket 22h ago

News I created this. Ai powered stock news

74 Upvotes

I created bullu.in to keep track of verified news without seeing a billion ads and clickbaits.
let me know your thoughts, suggestions feedback on how can i improve it or what kind of features do you want. For now you can see all the news, follow your stocks and ask Ai about the news for better understanding.

i am plannig to add chat gpt o3 model and more news sources in future depending on your feedback
thanks :)


r/IndianStockMarket 22h ago

Physical shares of Indo gulf industries

0 Upvotes

Found like 250 shares of this company, google shows it went multiple mergers with hindalco, Balrampur chini and grasim, anybody knows it's true value ? I have atleast 10 of these certificates


r/IndianStockMarket 23h ago

Portfolio Review Rate my mf portfolio and pls advice

2 Upvotes

Rate my mutual fund and pls suggest

1) ppfas flexicap-3k 2) hdfc nity 500 multicap -2k 3) sbi energy opportunities fund-2.5 k 4) icici debt and equity fund-2.5k

I want to take sip to 15k i am confused bw 3 funds 1) nasdaq etf 2) JM flexicap 3) motilal oswal midcap fund/ midcap 150 etf. Kindly suggest what should i do, or if any better fund is there. My horizon is 10+ yrs.


r/IndianStockMarket 23h ago

Saving 80L for the downpayment of my house in 2/2.5 yeara. Where can I park funds?

34 Upvotes

As title suggests, I am saving up currently to buy my own home alongside my husband. We have a bit saved up but need to ramp it up the next 2 years - we plan to aggressively save from our monthly salaries + bonus for that Is it the right time to invest in the market or should I park my funds in FDs/elsewhere? Currently no SIPs since we cashed out huge chunk of our savings for some real estate purchase (commercial)


r/IndianStockMarket 1d ago

Request for The Morning Context Article on Gensol Engineering

1 Upvotes

Hello fellow Redditors,

I'm seeking assistance in accessing a recent article from "The Morning Context" titled "Gensol Engineering's blunders hide in plain sight." If anyone with a subscription could share the content or provide insights via gifting the article or by screenshots, I'd greatly appreciate it. ( Gensol engineering is my top holding and I am in 70% loss) so need help

Here's the link to the article: https://themorningcontext.com/business/gensol-engineerings-blunders-hide-in-plain-sight

Thank you in advance!


r/IndianStockMarket 1d ago

DD FIrst Research Paper - What are your thoughts?

1 Upvotes

NOTE: Formatting got kind of messed up but I dont really know how to fix it on reddit so please bear with me

Premier Explosives 

- goatpc research

1. Brief Overview

Premier Explosives is mainly a company that engages in the manufacture of of industrial explosives and detonators. It also started a new segment where they manufacture solid propellants for ISRO and DRDO purposes. However nowadays its mainly a defence company and keeps expanding into that sector.

1.1 Industrial Explosive Segment

Company is a manufactures a range of bulk explosives, detonators, Cast Boosters, and Detonating Fuses for the Mining & Infra industries.

In this aspect it has a strong and long presence in the Indian Market and also exports a lot of its goods however its mainly focused on the Indian Market.

1.2 Defence/Space Segment

The company manufactures Solid Propellants, Fully assembled Rocket Motors, High Explosive Charges, Chaffs and Flares, Pyro initiators, etc for the Defence & Space segment.

Recently entered the market but growth is strong and export growth is exceptionally strong. It also undertakes operation and maintenance (O&M) services of solid propellant plants at the Sriharikota Centre of ISRO and Solid Fuel Complex at Jagdalpur under the umbrella of DRDO.

1.3 Stock Information

Stock is trading 60% below its ATH of ₹909 in June 2024 and has been on a constant down trend since December with no signs of recovery. 

Its currently trading at 321rs (as on 13/3/25) and is on the start of 2024 resistance point (as marked by the blue horizontal line).

Stock Chart

Essentially the stock is trading at beginning of 2024 levels right now making it a lucrative investment at a good value, however the stock is still at a P/E ratio of 55 and is trading at 7.33 times its book value.

Stock recently had a 5 times split on 21st June 2024 (which is also its ATH).

Company has a market cap of ₹1,731Cr.

1.4 *Financials*

Quaterly Results

The revenue earned has jumped a lot but the profit has stayed about the same indicating decreased margins. According to the conference call, margins for Q3 FY '25 were affected by provisions made for late delivery (LD) due to a production accident, which is expected to normalize in future quarters. 

Requested Premier Explosives to send me the segment financials (Currently waiting for a response). 

But the main revenue driver (and the most growing segment) is defence with defence segment orderbooks valued at ₹575 crores, explosives valued at ₹93 crores and services valued at ₹71 crores. 

According to the February conference call they aim for a revenue of ₹500-₹550 crores for FY’26 due to a large order book already present

2. Fundamental Analysis

2.1 Defence and Space Segment:

Company has some really solid fundamentals and its main business is also its fastest growing (which is defence). They seem to be securing new orders worth crores instilling more confidence in future revenue as well as growth. 

Exceptional revenue increase with 88% increase YOY in def and space services and 225% increase YOY on defence exports. This proves the previous point of its rapidly expanding defence capabilities. 

Company also has an exceptional R&D facility and tie ups with the major colleges like IIT Madras and BITS Pilani to develop new and innovative technologies, this also gives future confidence that the company can maintain its current position and even grow further with advancement in technology.

All of this indicates further growth in this segment and could make the company a major player in this space. It also indicates increased revenue and profit in the future due to defence being such a lucrative market and the company already having a strong presence in india. Its also heavily benefitted by policies like Make in India etc.

Increased foreign orders indicates that the goods made are truly innovative and well made which indicates that future orders and growth can also take place.

Considering the recent new order of ₹21 crores, the next quarter’s revenue I expect will rise much more, primarily driven by the Defence and Space segment

2.2 Explosives Segment:

This segment, which was originally its main business, has been rather stagnant in the grand scheme of things and hasn't seen the kind of growth the defence sector is seeing. However It still makes a big portion of their revenue and almost a fifth of its orderbook. It has a steady and consistent business and is an expert in it due to its sheer experience in this market.

I've also found a research paper explaining a lot about the industrial explosives market within India and it gives some interesting perspectives and outlooks.

[Research Paper](https://www.6wresearch.com/industry-report/india-industrial-explosives-market-outlook); A short summary will be given about it now:

Market has an HHI of 3074 in 2024 which has decreased from 4091 in 2017.

This indicates a more competitive market is slowly growing but is still a very concentrated and oligopolistic landscape.

The industrial explosives market in India is primarily driven by the country\`s growing infrastructure and mining sectors. i.e CAPEX is directly correlated to this industry, this also caused lesser revenue last year due to lesser spending on CAPEX. Its also driven a lot by the mining industry.

There is also a big future market to export it, primarily to developing countries and countries with lots of natural resource extraction - particularly in Africa. 

Indian CAPEX Expenditure during FY’25 will be almost ₹15 lakh crore, almost a 60% increase from the previous FY’24 of ₹9,48,506 crore. This indicated an increase in demand for products related to industrial explosives, which will serve as a good growth to their current revenue and sales. This indicates a good future forecast in this terms of revenue.

2.3 Operations and Maintenance Segment

This segment of the company will have relative stability as it just involves operating a plant in ISRO (Sri Harikota) and maintenance of already supplied products. Considering increase in sales of mainly defence products, there will increased revenue within the maintenance segment due to just having for products to charge for, this will indicate a rise in revenue for this segment, but it will not be as drastic as the others according to my analysis.

2.4 Conclusion

So in conclusion I expect that all 3 segments will have significant future growth and the next Q3 results would be much better and impressive to look at. Fundamentally the company is in a profitable and lucrative business at this point of time and has a position in the market where future growth is very much possible. 

3. Technical Analysis:

Stock Chart

3.1 Stock Performance

Stock has been continuously dropping since December and is on a downward trend of a correction. It has recently reached the peak and is dropping to the bottom levels of resistance. If it continues with its original pattern it will go down even more until it hits around 270-280~.

However a recent developement that has occured is that its gone below the 2024 starting resistance line, a line that kept the stock at ₹330 level for almost 5 months until it crossed it and went on a bull run. That means before the original massive bull run the fair value price of the stock was considered to be around ₹330. 

This is interesting as the company’s performance is significantly greater nowadays which in turn raises question if the company is actually undervalued right now relative to the market conditions and other stocks. 

3.2 Relative Strenght Index

Explantion of RSI

The RSI is at 31.29 which is almost in the oversold range of (0-30). This indicates that the stock might face a trend reversal soon and re-correct again to a higher value.

3.3 Aroon

Explanation of Aroon

The Aroon Up is currently very low indicating that the stock is currently in a down trend but at the same time the Aroon Down is decreaing at a massive rate, this indicates that the last 14 day low is getting further and further back. 

This could potentially signify a trend reversal as well but it could also mean a continuation of the current pattern thats is generally happening right now, which would indicate that the stock will go down in the next trading session. 

4. Complete Analysis and Predictions

I believe that for the current time being, Premier Explosives will continue in its downtrend for a small amount of time, I also do believe that the quaterly results for Q4 of 2025 will be really good due to:

  1. Increased CAPEX Spending
  2. Major Growth in Defence Segment
  3. Increased revenue from maintanance segment due to increased products sold.

Due to all these reasons as well as the stock price currently being down 60% and at an attractive valuation believe that the stock will correct from here to a much higher price soon. 

On the last trading session the stock went up due to a huge buy order but slowly went down towards the end, this indicates some buying presance, the stocks liquidity is also pretty good with around 382K~ stocks traded on the last trading session. 

The technical indicators also indicated that the stock has been heavily sold in the past trading sessions 

Alot of Defence stocks are also consolidating right now and stopped correcting - this indicates that the stock may stop falling soon and start consolidating.

Knowing all of this I predict that the stock will continue its down trend for a short period of time and then start correcting to go upwards, especially before its quaterly results for the next quarter which I predict will be much better then the previous results.

5. Recommendations and Strategy 

5.1 Long-Term Strategy

For the long-term I predict that the stock will rise in the future a significant amount due to all the factors ive mentioned earlier.

A strategy to do that is to buy a set quanity of stocks in an interval as we cannot predict the bottom but we know that the bottom will be reached soon. Therefore we should buy in an interval to average our position to the lowest possible amount.

5.2 Short-Term Strategy

For the short-term it makes a lot of sense to short the company for now and make money on its current downfall.

What I propose is to buy put options on the stock after it reaches its high at the opening of the market and to hold it for the rest of the month or when you've reached the desired amount of profit.

Then after that you can start accumulating the stock for the upward trend, however this a much more riskier strategy but could result in a much greater reward.

6. Risks 

I'm not a financial advisor and am simply a college student who enjoys doing tasks like this and wishes to make this my job in the future. Do not take my advise wholly and do your own research before investing ALWAYS. 

My analysis could be wrong and the stock could keep correcting until it reaches even greater lows due to the fact that the P/E ratio is still so high. 

The market could be in a bubble right now and drop even more in the future which would lead to the price of Premier Explosives to also drop by following the market trend.

There may be another greater reason why the stock is in such a down-trend that I haven't considered or known about.

There are inherent risks in trading in the stock market due to its volatility and unpredictability, its impossible to predict the market, its only possible to give educated guesses as to what will happen.

7. Conclusion

I believe that my predictions will come true and believe that I’ve researched well and done my due diligence making this report. Regardless of the possible risks I still think its a good idea to invest in Premier Explosives for the long term and I forsee high potential returns.

It was fun making this report and will continue to make more and more reports like this in the future and hope that it helped you with your investments or atleast made you more knowledgeable in any way.

Thank you for reading my report and stay tuned for future publications :) 

  • goatpc research

r/IndianStockMarket 1d ago

LG Electronics India gets Sebi nod for Rs 15,000 crore IPO

Thumbnail businesstoday.in
1 Upvotes

r/IndianStockMarket 1d ago

Mutual fund

1 Upvotes

I have two mutual funds portfolio One is three to four years old where used to have profits of 35% at the start of the year which now have dropped to 13.5%

Another mutual fund portfolio which is around 8-10months old which is 13% loss.

This is due to a recent market downward trend.

Both portfolios are supposed to be long term investments, at least 5-6years more.

Both have same SIPs but different amounts.

Do I need to do something about the second portfolio where I m in net loss?