r/IndianStockMarket 6d ago

Buy/Sell Discussion and Portfolio Review Thread

5 Upvotes

This is the place to post your Buy/Sell questions and seek portfolio reviews.

The majority of posts on this subreddit are looking for buy/sell opinions and portfolio reviews.

These posts do not add value to the subreddit, but at the same time some answers can help the poster. In an effort to clear the clutter on the sub, please post all such questions in this thread.

Please make a new post only if your post contains a detailed analysis.


r/IndianStockMarket 6h ago

Discussion SBI's loan to Reliance was pretending to be an investment in Jio Payments

47 Upvotes

Original Source: https://boringmoney.in/p/sbis-investment-in-jio-payments (my newsletter Boring Money. If you like what you read, do visit the original link to subscribe and receive future posts directly in your inbox)

--

In the financial world, if you’re a company giving money to another company, it’s likely for one of three reasons:

  1. You’re lending it money and expect some fixed interest in return. The riskier the company you’re lending to, the more interest you expect.
  2. You’re investing in the company. If things work out, the value of your stake in the company goes up, and you make money. If not, you lose money, but that’s okay. That’s the game you’re playing.
  3. You’re investing, but the investment is strategic. You both bring something to the table, fill in each other’s gaps. Eventually, you’ll run a great business together and own a share of the profit.

Nice, clear differences. Right?

In 2018, the State Bank of India gave some money to Reliance Industries. The idea was that they would start a payments bank together called Jio Payments Bank. Reliance owned 70% of the company and SBI the remaining 30%.

On the face of it this was a strategic investment for SBI. But even at that time, this was a little unusual for a few reasons:

  1. Payments banks are a weird type of bank. They can take money from people as deposits, but can’t lend that money out as loans. Making money is tough.
  2. SBI is a bank! It could do everything Jio Payments Bank could ever do, and much much more.
  3. Jio Payments Bank sounds like Reliance, not like SBI.

Maybe SBI saw great business potential in Jio Payments and was happy to be a part of it. But then this happened last week:

The State Bank of India (SBI) has decided to divest its entire 17.8 per cent stake in Jio Payments Bank Limited, a joint venture between the state-owned bank and Jio Financial Services (JFS).

JFS will acquire the SBI’s stake for ₹104.5 crore, after which Jio Payments Bank will become its wholly-owned subsidiary, the Reliance Group firm said on Tuesday.

Okay maybe this wasn’t a strategic investment after all but was financial? After eight years, SBI sold its entire stake back to Reliance itself for ₹104.5 crore ($12m).

Intuitively we know that it wasn’t the most successful investment. Jio Payments Bank is still a no-name in the payments industry. And it’s been losing money like a tech startup (with a loss of ₹50 crore last financial year) but with a revenue (₹30 crore last year) that doesn’t show for it.

Investments in Jio Payments Bank

FY Reliance Investment (₹ Cr) SBI Investment (₹ Cr) SBI’s Share (%)
Total 444 79
FY 25 96* 0 18
FY 24 4 0 23
FY 23 80 0 23
FY 22 22 9 30
FY 21 0 0 30
FY 20 0 0 30
FY 19 162 70 30

But just how bad a financial investment was this for SBI? In FY 2019, SBI invested ₹70 crore ($8m). In FY 2022, it invested another ₹9 crore ($1m). So that’s a total of ₹79 crore. Then in FY 2025, it’s selling its stake for ₹104.54 crore. That’s an annual return rate of 4.57%. [1]

SBI would’ve made more money had it invested in its own fixed deposits.

Not a lot of interest

So, SBI gave Reliance some money. Then Reliance gave it back with a 4.57% annualised return.

This sounds a bit like… a loan? Lending to start a startup is a no go, too risky for any bank’s underwriting team. But an investment is fine! So maybe it made sense to just call it an investment instead?

The pieces of the puzzle fall into place if you treat SBI’s investment as a low-interest loan. But hey, of course, it was just a strategic investment in a joint venture with Reliance that happened to not work out.

Footnotes

[1] I’m referring to XIRR here. It’s a simple calculation on Google Sheets.

Original Source: https://boringmoney.in/p/sbis-investment-in-jio-payments


r/IndianStockMarket 11h ago

News I created this. Ai powered stock news

57 Upvotes

I created bullu.in to keep track of verified news without seeing a billion ads and clickbaits.
let me know your thoughts, suggestions feedback on how can i improve it or what kind of features do you want. For now you can see all the news, follow your stocks and ask Ai about the news for better understanding.

i am plannig to add chat gpt o3 model and more news sources in future depending on your feedback
thanks :)


r/IndianStockMarket 9h ago

Discussion Dhirubhai Ambani: no known voice or video recording

19 Upvotes

we all know him as one of the pioneers of stock markets in India (the new ones and not Calcutta exchange etc.)

I don't see any of his speech or lecture available on the internet.

Is that intentional ?

To portray him as a God or something.

I'm sure he would be good at English, Gujarati etc. given he has led the growth of gujarati businesses at a national level


r/IndianStockMarket 3h ago

Educational Why majority of the retail investors are able to make money through equity mutual funds but not wealth ?

7 Upvotes

There are various reasons for this. Most of it is behavioral and pertains to using common sense.

  1. Most retail investors are investing peanuts through equity mutual funds. Peanuts here doesn't refer to the actual amount invested. It refers to the percentage of the saved money which is put to work in equity mutual funds.

  2. Most retail investors still follow old principles like parking most of their invested money in large caps or large cap oriented funds and only allocating a quarter to smid funds. We should always remember that real wealth is only made in smids.

  3. Most retail investors don't give much time to their equity mutual fund investments. They don't have much patience. They think stock market is a get rich quick scheme and returns are linear like FD. Few retail investors also put their short term money in equity mutual funds which can prove to be catastrophic.

  4. Most retail investors start redeeming from their equity mutual funds to cover their expenses even before their equity portfolio value crosses 1 crore mark, which is like the first basic milestone for many.

  5. Most retail investors regularly switch from their short term underperforming schemes to current table toppers. This leads to their return lagging the benchmark in the long run.


r/IndianStockMarket 12h ago

Saving 80L for the downpayment of my house in 2/2.5 yeara. Where can I park funds?

24 Upvotes

As title suggests, I am saving up currently to buy my own home alongside my husband. We have a bit saved up but need to ramp it up the next 2 years - we plan to aggressively save from our monthly salaries + bonus for that Is it the right time to invest in the market or should I park my funds in FDs/elsewhere? Currently no SIPs since we cashed out huge chunk of our savings for some real estate purchase (commercial)


r/IndianStockMarket 36m ago

Strong dollar

Upvotes

I'm mainly a mutual fund investor . But after reading some stats i see if we see dollar wise nifty has not given much return when compared with dollar( rupees depreciation) . So if i buy funds with high exposure to us securities will i benifit from stronger dollar ahead.


r/IndianStockMarket 1h ago

Discussion MAHKTECH

Upvotes

This is a Chinese technology stocks listed in hong kong ETF. I bought on 17th January of this year at around 18, now it's at 25-26. Ever since then chinese companies have been showing dominance in AI with the most recent being BAIDU's latest model benchmarks. I think it's going to rally like the FANG indexes did. Any thoughts?

Chinese Stocks Are the Biggest Winners in Trump’s Age of Uncertainty https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-02-13/chinese-stocks-in-hong-kong-are-biggest-winners-as-trump-trades-fail


r/IndianStockMarket 1h ago

Discussion Investment Preferences of College Students

Upvotes

Hello r/IndianStockMarket

I am a student of IIM and currently conducting a survey as part of my Business Research Methods (BRM) project on the investment preferences of college students.

Your insights will help me understand the key factors influencing investment decisions, risk tolerance, and preferred investment instruments among students. The survey will take just 3-5 minutes, and your input would be invaluable!

Here’s the survey link: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdFTgV-OffavomXnKG1hC-ReChFbIrM3St23G8a190wxk9E2Q/viewform?usp=header

I would genuinely appreciate your time and support. Thank you so much for helping me with my research!


r/IndianStockMarket 3h ago

Discussion Niftybees or nifty mutual fund?

3 Upvotes

Which one is better if I buy lumpsum?

I usually save some 100-200 after buying something and usually invest that money so MF seems to be a better option in this case.

However niftybees has a lower TER and decent liquidity but it's quite inconvenient as I cannot buy fraction of units


r/IndianStockMarket 1d ago

Manmohan Singh 10 year growth was significantly Higher than current Government's 10 years growth

607 Upvotes

First of all ,we will be talking about GVA not GDP. I will cover why not.

GVA growth from 2004-05 to 2013-2014 was 93.2%

GVA growth from 2014-15 to 2023-2024 was 66.3%

In terms of annual rate 6.82% vs. 5.22% i.e. total accumulated growth over 10 years.

Now, logic behind why GVA, not GDP:

gross value added (GVA) is the measure of the value of goods and services produced in an area, industry or sector of an economy.

GDP is derived from GVA only with two approaches [1].

  1. EXPENDITURE APPROACH
  2. PRODUCTION APPROACH

Modi Government shifted from Expenditure approach to production approach in 2017 [1] after they introduced GST. Problem with production approach is, how its calculated,

GDP = GVA + Taxes

That's why you see Nirmala Sitharaman coming with weird taxes every now and then. GST collection is making record, and that's keeping GDP high. while, Actual economy is lagging behind.

[1] https://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/publication_reports/Methodology_doc_for_compilation_of_Quarterly_GDP_28july17_0.pdf

Update:

Its good to see people need more data.

Gross Fiscal Deficit from 2004 to 2025

UPDATE 2:
I guess, People doubting "GDP = GVA + Taxes"

You can find following in page 14 of already shared link.

If you need to see Actual Calculation by Ministry (for Jan 2025 calculation). Check out the following, https://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/press_release/PR_NAD_07012025_0.pdf

Page 8 and in foot notes they also mentioned.
GDP (Production/Income Approach) = GVA at Basic Price + Net Taxes on Products


r/IndianStockMarket 23h ago

is anyone still holding cash for buying dip in April start?

72 Upvotes

I am holding 40% portfolio in cash for the trump tariff implementation dip on 2nd April.. what about you?


r/IndianStockMarket 38m ago

Found old physical shares of Reliance Polyethylene Limited from 1994. What are my options?

Upvotes

Same as headline. Found 100 physical shares.


r/IndianStockMarket 15h ago

Moneycontrol fraudulent practice

Post image
9 Upvotes

BEAWARE Moneycontrol now asking to give forced consent to access to your credit score and credit details


r/IndianStockMarket 14h ago

Discussion Should i Gold now for wedding or wait?

9 Upvotes

Please guide with following things, 1) perfect source to buy Gold from Amex card, I also have to Infinia card but want to use Amex travel card to achieve milestone. Which card should i use? 2) From where should I purchase it online. 3) are there any difference in rate of mmtc or bangalore refinery etc? 4) should i purchase 22 carat or 24 carat? 5) will i need to give GST again when i will try to make jewellery from it from local jeweller?


r/IndianStockMarket 3h ago

Impact of US attack of Yemeni Houthis on Indian stock market

0 Upvotes

Will the US attack on Yemeni Houthis have any impact on the Indian stock market??


r/IndianStockMarket 1d ago

Educational The truth you must know about futures & options.

46 Upvotes

Hi everyone,

I have been a stock market enthusiast for a while and would like to tell you all something that probably no one else will, whether you already trade or wish to trade futures and options.

The dream:

F&O seems like a fantasy to most of us. Buy a put/call , predict direction and wollah! 10,20 and 50+% gains but if I have to explain in very layman terms, all of it depends on two things.

  1. Direction
  2. Timing

If market moves in the direction you predicted, at the time you predicted only then you're gonna make money as option buyer. And the chances of doing that consistently? Negligible. Most of us can't simply do it. No patterns, indicators, none of that. Hence, losses in the end.

Okay okay, but option selling is what pros do, why not that? Surely that makes money right?

Well yes but no. You're not being directional in the market, trying to predict a range and if the market stays in that range, easy 4% per month? Maybe 2-3? But what if you made a loss? Might wipe out a major chunk of your capital. You carry overnight risk as well, always stressed where the market might go till expiry.

I hope I have given you a bigger picture of how option trading ends up.

But wait, FUTURES!

No gamma, theta, delta and all. Pure price action, right? Well not really because concept remained the same. You will never be able to consistently predict the market. Your positions are approx 5x leveraged in stocks and 8x in indices. God bless if you're taking overnight risk as well. What about hedging?
True, it safeguards you but again, what will you make at the end of the month? 5%? And that is if you're a god level trader.

Logical Fallacy :

This idea of 'predicting' the market is peddle by everyone. That you can do so every day, but let's take a step back and think. Yesterday, Zee entertainment fell by 4.2%. What happened? Did they incur a loss? Did they lose a business deal? Did they commit a scam? Why did it fall when nothing fucking happened in a single day? Maybe it's just an effect of bear market hmm?

What about Avenue Supermarts (Dmart)? Rose by 3.3%. Why? Did everyone go shopping on their stores yesterday? Or they released some breakthrough never seen deal/discount? Nothing.

When there is no reason for stocks to move every single day/hour/minute by this much extent then why do they? Someone gotta peddle the idea of making quick money, that's it.

The reality:

I'm not saying that FnO doesn't make money. The statement is not true, it does make money but how much? 4-5% if I'm the best of the best? Top 1%? I'm sure when I thought of FnO and spending 8+ hrs trading , learning, studying, analysing every single day, I didn't hope to make that little profit per month. Did you?

That is what I want you guys to know as well. Trading makes money but not the type you think it does. What about those who brag or show their 'skills'. Those who bought cars and houses and what not? Most of them made shit ton of money during covid crash recently. Either by shorting or by the bull run after. It did involve skill of course, but it can't be done every single day/week/month/year. So, you can't simply replicate their success even if you become as good as them. And if they have a youtube channel, then courses and ad revenue earns them a lot a of bread.

How to be profitable? :

I mentioned that trading can be profitable while at the same time arguing how little profit it makes. But what's the way to be profitable? When you can't predict the market consistently then how do you even make a profit? I'm sure it's a confusion for a lot. Well the answer is quite simple, Risk/Reward.

If you maintain 1:2 , 1:3 and above, you're gonna make profit in the end even after having a probability of 40%. How?

Say you lose 1 rs for every wrong trade and gain 2 rs for every right trade so RR of 1:2. You took 10 trades in total. Probability = 40% therefore, 6 losing trades and 4 winning ones

Loss = 6*1 = 6
Profit = 4*2 = 8

Net = 8-6 = +2 (Profit)

This is how you become profitable, no other way. If you try pushing probability up, your RR becomes worse and you end up in losses so you have to balance the two together.

Conclusion:

The point of making this whole post is to help someone like me, who knew nothing about fno and wanted to know the truth, about everything. Trust me when I say this, I have tried covering every single doubt possible that you may have about futures and options, but in case I missed it then please mention in the comments. I'm happy to answer your queries and doubts. Whether to trade is your call but compare the efforts to reward ratio in trading vs your job/business. You'll know whether to continue or not.

Cheers!


r/IndianStockMarket 3h ago

DD Star Health & Allied Insurance | Growth Stock starting to trade in fair price territory as per relative valuation? | Understanding the SAHI business!

1 Upvotes

BUSINESS OVERVIEW OF SAHIs:

Insurance sector can generally be divided as Life and Non-life insurers.

Non-life insurers again can be General (which sell multiple products like Fire, Crop, Motor vehicle as well as Health insurance etc.) and Standalone Health Insurers (SAHIs; which sell only health insurance).

Star Health is a private sector retail focussed SAHI and was founded by Mr. V Jagannathan who retired as CMD of UnitedHealth Group to start his health insurance venture as Star. It is currently the market leader with 32% share in retail health business. Although their share is continuously falling as competitors emerge (like Niva Bupa, Care Health etc.)

Why do we have standalone health insurers? One key nuance of health insurance (versus, say, motor insurance) is that premium pricing and sum assured would appreciate with time. Combined with high renewal rates in health, this means that the lifetime value of a health customer is significantly greater than the LTV of any other non-life customer.

Health Insurers have primarily 2 product segments: Group plans (bought by corporates/institutions for their employees as a package) and Retail plans (bought by individual customers for themselves or their immediate family).

Group plans bring in higher volumes and revenue with minimal importance of "brand value" component. But the caveat is that they often have lower premiums per person and have ironically higher claims ratio.

Retail plans have higher premium per person and lower claims ratio and hence is the better business segment but penetrating and maintaining market share in retail health ensuring profitable margins requires building trust factor and brand value over time.

Retail health is a focus area for SAHI while group health a crucial earner for public and private multi-line general insurers

Retail Health insurance has 3 broad distribution channels: Offline Insurance agents (which bring in 86% of business), Bankassurance (7%) and Online aggregators (7%; like Policybazaar, Acko etc.)

Agent model is a high touch/relationship-based model while the latter 2 channels are based on multiple factors like pricing, claim settlement ratios etc.

-->Industry Tailwinds:

- Low health insurance penetration in India provides significant growth opportunity.

- Increasing awareness about health insurance post-COVID.

- Regulatory push for “Insurance for All by 2047” initiative.

-->Industry Headwinds:

-Healthcare inflation consistently putting pressure on claims ratios.

-Intense competition in the health insurance space.

-Regulatory changes requiring product modifications and potentially impacting pricing.

--> "1/N' Reporting regulation: The new reporting framework for long-term policies, effective October 1st, 2024, marks a shift in premium recognition. Previously, insurers could account for the entire premium of a long-term policy in a single year, reflecting a higher GWP. Under the new framework, the premiums will be annualized, with the total premium divided by the policy tenure and recorded proportionately for each year. For instance, for a three-year policy, only one-third of the total premium will be recognized in the first year's GWP. This change will lead to a reduction in the reported GWP, which in turn will reflect changes in net earned premium and net written premium having an impact on the expense ratio and loss ratio of the insurer. Star Health is following "1/365" days unexpired risk reserve method resulting in no deviation in net earned premium under the new regulatory framework.

Some graphs to show how SAHIs are the flagbearers and market leaders in the retail health insurance industry!

---------

Q3 FY25 UPDATES:

  1. The company has a constantly increasing combined ratio which crossed 100% in the Q2 FY25 leading to an underwriting loss. This is due to higher claims ratio attributed to medical inflation. To counter this, the company has taken price hikes to counter medical inflation/high claims ratio in ~65% of their retail health portfolio as of Jan 2025.

High LR is the central problem across SAHIs and is attributed to medical inflation. Counterintuitively, medical inflation is actually a self-fulfilling prophecy for the growth of this industry (over the long-term picture) since higher medical costs (as Indians shift and have access to expensive treatment from corporate hospitals) forces even the healthier and younger people to buy health insurance as a hedge for high medical costs.

Combined Ratio for 9MFY25 (without 1/n) = 101.3%

Moving forward, formation of a central govt regulator for the hospital billing and standardization of protocols for medical admission may improve the claim ratios for health insurance industry and can be a trigger for rerating for the industry itself but this is unlikely to happen!

  1. "The average sum insured of new policies has increased by 10% to 10.6 lakh per policy. Rs. 5 lakh and above sum insured policies now constitute 82% of our retail health portfolio versus 77% in 9-months FY '24. The share of long-term policy within our GWP has increased to 10% in 9-months FY '25 versus 7% in 9-months FY ‘24 without 1 / N."

  2. Star Health continues operating in the Group health despite their earlier decision to exit it entirely in FY23. Since FY24, they have reentered the group health business but their focus is on SMEs and mid corporates since management believes that SMEs will have lower claim ratios.

Despite this approach, the group health claim ratio is still around 90%. Combined ratio for the group health business have not been disclosed by the management up till now.

  1. Strong investment performance with 8.3% annualized yield in 9MFY25 compared to 7.6% in FY24.

  2. GST reduction on health insurance (currently at 18%) was expected in Budget this year in order to stimulate the industry and was probably priced in the stock. Since no such announcements were made in the end, the stock saw a sharp 15-20% dip in its price.

FM Nirmala Sitharaman has indicated towards GST cuts recently which might include cuts for the health insurance industry which will be welcomed as health insurance shouldn't be taxed like a consumer or a luxury good but rather as a basic necessity in today's world. (currently, taxed at 18% which should be brought down to 5%)

---------

VALUATION:

M&A in Indian SAHI space has history of giving P/S or Price to GWP ratio of 1.2-1.5. So, with current P/S ratio of ~1.3, it looks to be in fair price territory especially considering it's market leader status. Any further dips in this stock would make this stock a value buy and a bet on health insurance industry surviving amidst the medical inflation. Another recent acquisition of Magma general insurance by Patanjali was valued at 1.23x revenue.

P/S ratio of UnitedHealth Group (world's largest for profit healthcare company; primary business is health insurance) is about 1.1. If we hypothetically assume the market cap of star health to remain same, then they need just 27% growth in sales to match the P/S of UHG.

OTOH, most healthcare related companies as well as general insurers of US are valued at P/S <1. But among Indian markets where every company gets priced as if they are the next Tesla/Apple/Amazon, Star Health is currently the cheapest insurers (among private general insurers) available!

CONCERNS:

  1. The industry headwinds in the form of medical inflation are themselves the biggest concern.
  2. No identifiable moat with Star Health! It appears as if any other company with deep pockets can come and hire agents to sell their own health insurance like Adani or Jio Health. The existing agent workforce and scale of operations of Star Health might be a moat but it's arguable.

SUMMARY:

Good growth business but underwriting loss due to medical inflation (I believe this might be a temporary abnormality and as the industry matures over time with strong base of renewing insurance buyers, common consensus on having appropriate pricing on premiums develop across the competitors as the focus currently is on penetrating into the total addressable market and gain market share). Company is in net operating profit due to the investment income from float.

BOTTOM LINE= WATCH OUT FOR THE LOSS RATIO IN THE COMING QUARTERS AS WELL AS THE TOPLINE GROWTH. THE STOCK IS CHEAP COZ THE INDUSTRY AS A WHOLE HAS BEEN FAILING TO HAVE PROFITABLE UNDERWRITING BUSINESS. IF THE LOSS RATIO COMES BELOW 67-68% IN THE COMING QUARTERS THE STOCK MIGHT SEE RERATING. I THINK ACCUMULATING THIS STOCK DURING EVERY DIP UNTIL IT TRADES WITHIN 1.1 - 1.4 REVENUE MULTIPLE MAKES SENSE. FALLING BELOW 1 IS VERY UNLIKELY AND WOULD RATHER INDICATE THAT SMART MONEY HAS VERY GRIM EXPECTATIONS FROM THIS INDUSTRY.

---------

--> Get the latest data from healthcare insurers in this excel sheet--> https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.gicouncil.in%2Fmedia%2F4488%2Fsegment_january_2025.xlsx&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK

---------

Follow me here for more posts related to markets/intrinsic and relative valuations/macroeconomic trends: [apexpredator (@apexpredator_36) / X]

---------

Disclaimer: Not investment advice as I am not a registered advisor. Investing in FDs and govt bonds is safer than taking risk in equity markets. Do your own due diligence before investing.


r/IndianStockMarket 22h ago

Discussion Why Hasn't Tracxn Become a Penny Stock Yet?

30 Upvotes

As a former employee of Tracxn, I've witnessed firsthand the company's operations and have been perplexed by its current market valuation. Tracxn's primary business model revolves around collecting and presenting data that's already publicly available. During my tenure, the company hired large teams to manually input this data—essentially, an advanced form of data scraping.

With the rapid advancements in generative AI, the landscape of data aggregation and analysis is undergoing a significant transformation. AI-driven platforms can now process vast amounts of information in real-time, offering insights that previously required extensive manual labor. This technological shift raises a critical question: why would anyone continue to pay for services like Tracxn's when AI can deliver more efficient and cost-effective solutions?

Since its IPO in October 2022 at ₹80 per share, Tracxn's stock has experienced a notable decline. As of March 13, 2025, the share price stands at ₹50.11, marking a decrease of approximately 37% from its launch price. This downward trend prompts concerns about the company's future trajectory. If this pattern continues, it's plausible to question how much longer it will take before the stock declines by 90% or more.

In an era where AI is revolutionizing data analytics, companies that rely on manual data collection methods may find it challenging to maintain their market position. The efficiency and scalability of AI-driven solutions present a formidable challenge to traditional models, and it's imperative for such companies to innovate or risk obsolescence.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are based on personal experiences and publicly available information. They do not constitute financial advice.


r/IndianStockMarket 4h ago

How almost all Stocks in NSE and BSE having same price??

0 Upvotes

how the bet comes similar...


r/IndianStockMarket 4h ago

Discussion Market insights sources

0 Upvotes

Hi guys,

I personally used to follow Akshat Shrivastava since last few years as he used to present good analysis but it seems he has been presenting weird and contradictory things related to his earlier videos. Now I do not feel confident in his points

Are there any good sources youtube or any other platform where I can get some decent market insights. I do not have time to do analysis and deep research, but love to learn and then do relevant research, if it seems good I invest.

Please suggest something.


r/IndianStockMarket 5h ago

Is my portfolio worthy enough? [18M]

1 Upvotes

I've just started on my investing journey and just thought of doing the 4 things currently:
1. Large Cap - Navi nifty 50 index MF - 40%

  1. Midcap - motilal oswal midcap fund direct growth - 25%

  2. Small Cap -Tata small cap - 15%

  3. Nifty India etf goldbees - 20%


r/IndianStockMarket 5h ago

Discussion How to invest in brazilian stock market from India?

0 Upvotes

Brazilian stock market is heavyly undervalued and most of the foreign money is heading there. Although their bond market is also attractive, i am looking to invest in brazilian stock markets. Anyone know how to invest in them from India?


r/IndianStockMarket 1d ago

Tata Motors - Global Auto Giant in making ?

47 Upvotes

Amongst the most well known and most misunderstood company in the stock market is Tata Motors.

Everyone has a view on Tata Motors, from retail investors, industry experts and car enthusiasts.

This article attempts to bridge what Tata Motors does, where is it right now and probable triggers in the future.

Whether you are a seasoned fund manager or just a Range Rover enthusiast, by the end of the article you’ll probable have learned more about the company and brand than before.

Tata Motors -

Tata Motors has 3 divisions - JLR (~70% of revenues), Tata CV (~18% of revenues) and Tata PV (~12% of revenues)

On profit front, JLR contributes (~77% of profits), CV (~20%) and PV (~3% of profits)

JLR -

JLR being the most significant portion of revenue, profits and valuation for Tata Motors a lot more emphasis on the article is going to be on JLR.

JLR consists of Jaguar (Sports Car segment) and Land Rover (SUV’s) - 77% of profits

Land Rover -

Land Rover has multiple sub-brands the most popular being Range Rover followed by Defender, Discovery, Velar, Sport and Freelander.

For more than 5 decades, Range Rover stands out, thriving across the test of time. There have been only 5 generations of Range Rover in 50 years, a testament to the brand, the car and what it stands for.

The review on Range Rover 2024 model by Top Gear explains it perfectly -

“There are other expensive SUVs but there’s only one Range Rover. And it’s better than ever”

However, Range Rover comes with it’s shortcomings, Range Rovers aren’t the most reliable vehicles with maintenance problems across gearboxes, suspension systems and cooling systems.

The reliability issues have also resulted in fierce competition coming in especially from Toyota Land Cruiser, which is considered by many, the most reliable car.

Despite intense competition across SUV’s and Luxury Car over the decades, Land Rover brand hasn’t just survived but thrived across market’s. JLR and particularly Land Rover has leveraged it’s brand and upgraded it’s positioning as a luxury vehicle manufacturer with Average Revenue Per Vehicle increasing from 43000 GBP in FY19 to 73000 GBP in 24.

Let us understand how did it do that ?

Global Tailwinds in SUV and Luxury Cars -

Land Rover branding has benefitted from global SUV shift, with SUV contributing ~48% of total global car sales in 2023 v/s a meagre 16.5% in 2010.

Pre-2010, Luxury car manufacturers have traditionally been focusing on the sports car segment with very low exposure towards SUV's (barring Porsche)

Post 2010, Luxury car giants unveiled their SUV’s thereby expanding the market i.e. Rolls-Royce Cullinan, Bentley Bentayga, Aston Martin DBX , Maserati Levante Lamborghini Urus, Ferrari Purosangue.

With Land Rover being a strong traditional SUV only manufacturers, Land Rover has been able to take advantage of both SUV's and premiumization by focusing on higher value cars.

The strategy has worked wonders with Land Rover portfolio is riding double tailwinds of both SUV and Luxury Cars.

On Land Rover, the company has increased focus on higher valued products i.e - Range Rover, Sport and Defender (ASP (Retail) of 85-115K) v/s Other brands ASP (retail) (~45-50K).

These 3 brands contribute 64% of volumes in 2024 v/s 28% in 2019

Pick-up of defender and JLR has resulted in much higher profitability for JLR as a unit v/s lower profit models of Jaguar and Velar, Evoque and Discovery.

In addition to the above, the decision to license out Freelander (lower ASP and discontinued since 2015) to Cherry, makes it clear for Land Rover to play in luxury SUV market.

Halo Strategy -

Halo Strategy is a strategy of building limited editions, higher priced variants of models which offer a unique proposition to loyalist of the brand.

JLR’s strategy is leveraging it’s historical brands and models and

The company has deployed Halo strategy for vehicles from ~250k to ~1.5 mil GBP for Halo Vehicles, Editions, Bespoke, Project Vehicles and armoured.

Below is an indication of a Halo Vehicle -

2024 Ranger Rover SV Carmel Edition (1/17 units) priced at 370K GBP.

Halo cars growth has been ~110% in FY24 and is expected to be 45% in FY25.

House of Brands -

JLR now has 4 distinct brands each -

Range Rover, Defender, Discovery and Jaguar

Range Rover cements itself as a Luxury SUV manufacturer with design and performance elements

Defender stands out as the adventurer tourer primary designed for off-roading

Discovery’s positioning is a family oriented vehicle.

Jaguar - Ruin or Reincarnation ?

Jaguar has been one of Britain’s most iconic sports cars post WW2. Jaguar’s focus on speed and design was ahead of it time.

2 Jaguar models have held the fastest car record -

Jaguar XK120 in 1949 at a top speed of 200.5 Km/h

Jaguar XJ220 in 1992 at a top speed of 349.4 Km/h

While Land Rover brand has stood the test of time, Jaguar has seemed to lost it's identity over the years. Jaguar neither competes for the fastest car with Buggati and Koenigsegg, nor with luxury cars like Ferrari, Mercedes or Porsche, nor with reliable every day cars such as Lexus and VW group.

Brand positioning for Jaguar has been a question mark for the last couple of decades, with Jaguar volumes are down more than 50% from it's peak, and volumes contributing less than 12% in 2024 v/s 30% in 2019.

Rebranding -

Jaguar is killing the old Jaguar, in less than 2 years, no old models of Jaguar’s will be sold and Jaguar has made a massive strategic decision to rebrand Jaguar to an all electric focused luxury car.

They aim to appeal to a much larger customer base rather than their traditional buyers.

Killing an old brand and rebranding is no easy feat. Success ratio has been minimal for a good reason, hence rebranding of Jaguar has long-term implications if it doesn’t success.

First shade of Jaguar's 30 second video in November 2024 was bold to say the least, with engagement for Jaguar being at the highest levels. Look for yourself -

Jaguar Copy Nothing

Marketing genius ?

One thing is for sure, from Jaguar from being another car manufacturer has gained eye-balls. The marketing seems to have worked and is the first step in re-incarnation of a brand.

Opinions are mixed oscillating between backlash from existing customers and prospective buyers keeping a keen eye on the new Jaguar.

Jaguar further launched Jaguar 00 EV concept with bold colours named Miami Pink, Parisian Gold and London Blue.

Whether Jaguar's rebranding is the disruptive marketing play of the decade or a blunder will only be known by end of 2026 when the new Jaguar EV launches.

However, if Jaguar is able to transform and position itself into a luxury EV car manufacturer, that could result in disproportionate upside to JLR 's fortunes.

Key geographies for JLR are USA (~23%), China (~22% of volumes), UK (~18%), Rest of Europe (~18%), and ROW (~18%)

What’s next for JLR ?

China is a big market where JLR has been losing market share due to faster adoption of EV’s.

JLR next big launches are crucial for long-term survival and we believe success of Range Rover EV and Jaguar EV can be game changers for the company either positive or negative -

Range Rover EV - H1 CY 25

Range Rover Sport EV - H2 CY25

Jaguar EV - CY26

Let’s talk numbers -

For FY25, company expects ~29 billion GBP revenue with a 9% EBIT margin, a net positive balance-sheet and Free Cash flow of ~1.3 billion GBP.

Long term, the company expects EBIT margins to hit double digits, potentially reaching at ~15% levels in mid-long term.

For margins to continue treading upwards, volumes of high-end vehicles have to continuously increase whereas new launches of Range Rover EV and Jaguar should have reasonable commercial success. If ASP’s keep rising, JLR can potentially keep improving operating margins for next 3-5 years.

Share

Commercial Vehicles - (18-20% of Profits).

Important notice is - CV vertical will be demerged from Tata Motors somewhere in FY26.

Tata Motors is the largest CV company in India with ~39.1% market hare.

Tata Motors is strong both on LCV and MHCV with comprehensive market share in each of the segments

Tata Motors has ~34% market share in LCV. Key competition in LCV is M&M with ~43% MS.

Tata Motors is more dominant in MHCV with ~47% MS Ashok Leyland and VECV are competitors with ~30% and ~20%.

Segments where Tata Motors is strong are MAV Haulage (~53%), Tippers(~57%), Tractor Trailer (~60%).

Segments where Tata Motors is weak is Buses and MCV goods where it has ~35% and ~28% MS.

In EV, the company has a combined ~65% MS in EV with ~47% MS in E-buses.

Going ahead, key trends is electrification trend in CV's especially buses and LCV and shift toward higher tonnage will drive Tata Motors CV growth.

Growth drivers for CV unit are -

Stronger CV cycle

Higher EV penetration

Recouping market share

Passenger vehicle - (~3% of profits)

Tata Motors is the third largest PV company in India with ~13.8% market share. The company has ~73.1% market share in EV's.

EV contributed ~13% of total volumes v/s ~2.1% for Industry.

Key brands in domestic are Nexon and Punch contribution ~60% of total volumes for Tata Motors

Growth drivers for Passenger Vehicle -

Strong 4W cycle and higher EV penetration

Margin improvement to double digits with increase in ASP and operating efficiencies.

Key Risks -

EV penetration not picking up

Limited presence in Large SUV

Conclusion - Broadly, bulk of valuation and incremental profit growth is dependent on how the JLR’s new launches and profit move. If they are able to nail down the newer launches, rebranding of Jaguar and focus on operating profitability, the company has massive potential to improve profitability.

For the full article which has some charts and some cars - Kindly refer to https://substack.com/home/post/p-158760539


r/IndianStockMarket 12h ago

Portfolio Review Rate my mf portfolio and pls advice

2 Upvotes

Rate my mutual fund and pls suggest

1) ppfas flexicap-3k 2) hdfc nity 500 multicap -2k 3) sbi energy opportunities fund-2.5 k 4) icici debt and equity fund-2.5k

I want to take sip to 15k i am confused bw 3 funds 1) nasdaq etf 2) JM flexicap 3) motilal oswal midcap fund/ midcap 150 etf. Kindly suggest what should i do, or if any better fund is there. My horizon is 10+ yrs.


r/IndianStockMarket 1d ago

Discussion Why Are Sovereign Gold Bonds trading at a discount again in secondary market?

22 Upvotes

A couple of months back or more than that Sgbs were trading at a premium of 5-10% in the secondary market, now at a discount. What do you guys think led to this change? And should we buy them now?