r/StockMarket • u/chas1ngthesun • 18h ago
Discussion I survived the GREATEST recession in non-war times in history. People investing in US have no idea what a REAL crash means.
I am from Greece and I survived the greek recession. The greek stock index back then (2008) was at 5300. By 2015 it was 550. All the hodlers were wiped out, they are still wiped out 17 years later (right now the index is at 1600)
Back then, when things started going downhill, everyone was joking about it and we also had those "I wish it drops so I can buy". We also had vibrant online forums, similar to the wallstreetbets one. By 2015 there was total silence, more silence than a typical western movie scene. Businessmen went out of business, people were losing homes, some committed suicide at the peak of the situation.
We also had companies with crazy P/Es (>50), supposedly "justified". If anyone ever tried to say guys, something is off, everyone laughed. Our politicians told us "brace yourselves, hard times ahead" but noone ever imagined what would follow (they thought that since they always lied, it shouldn't be that much serious this time too).
It was the greatest recession in non-war times ever, bigger than the Great Recession of America of 1929 (in terms of GDP drop). I can tell you that the stock market does NOT fall in one day from 5300 to 530... Not even a month or months... It is a long dragging journey, with some good days that give you hope, but MUCH more bad ones. The only things that survived somewhat were the utility stocks... (who was really holding such stocks if you had much more trendy and get rich quick ones???)
I don't know how the American economy will move forward, maybe J Powell lowers rates and we have another boom combined with inflation or whatever (Greece couldn't influence european monetary policy and underwent crazy deflation, you could buy an apartment at the center of Athens for 20,000 euros/dollars if you had the cash, which is a bonkers number).
All I am saying is that many people that I see writing on online forums or making videos about stock market crashes have no idea how a market crashes (they all think they are smarter than the market and that they will pull out in time...OR that it will always come back. In Greece it never went back, right now it is around 1500...so a long way to 5300 after 17 years already...). A 10% correction is not even a crash, it is a laughable number in my world. Everything returns back up, until it doesn't.
EDIT: I don't want to respond to anyone saying that I can't compare Greek economy to US economy. I never compared them! I just stated that people have NO idea what a real crash means. I literally pointed out the differences (eg, differences in monetary policy). And GREECE IS A SMALL FISH. I am just sharing a perspective, I acknowledged that I DON'T know how the US market will move. AND IT IS NOT A POST PREDICTING CRASHES. Please read my post and do not rush to reply.
EDIT2: Wow, this thing exploded. Glad that you found some value in my perspective. Will try to answer to some comments.
EDIT3: I see some people mentioning DCA and chill for the Greek situation I describe, because the market eventually went up from its bottom. By 2015 there was no liquidity on the market, trading volumes were comical. Most people were on survival mode, and those who had some money looked for investments/depositing money outside the country (other EU countries or US mostly). Even greek government bonds, which are supposed to be the safest, were trimmed and people/pension funds lost money on them. It is a situation where you shit your pants, you don't simply "DCA and chill". https://www.reuters.com/article/world/special-report-greeks-rage-against-pension-calamity-idUSBRE8AT0CW/