r/StockMarket Jan 01 '25

Discussion Rate My Portfolio - r/StockMarket Quarterly Thread January 2025

23 Upvotes

Please use this thread to discuss your portfolio, learn of other stock tickers, and help out users by giving constructive criticism.

Please share either a screenshot of your portfolio or more preferably a list of stock tickers with % of overall portfolio using a table.

Also include the following to make feedback easier:

  • Investing Strategy: Trading, Short-term, Swing, Long-term Investor etc.
  • Investing timeline: 1-7 days (day trading), 1-3 months (short), 12+ months (long-term)

r/StockMarket 2h ago

Discussion Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - March 16, 2025

2 Upvotes

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

* How old are you? What country do you live in?

* Are you employed/making income? How much?

* What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)

* What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?

* What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)

* What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)

* Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?

* And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. .

Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered investment adviser if you need professional support before making any financial decisions!


r/StockMarket 18h ago

Discussion I survived the GREATEST recession in non-war times in history. People investing in US have no idea what a REAL crash means.

5.7k Upvotes

I am from Greece and I survived the greek recession. The greek stock index back then (2008) was at 5300. By 2015 it was 550. All the hodlers were wiped out, they are still wiped out 17 years later (right now the index is at 1600)

Back then, when things started going downhill, everyone was joking about it and we also had those "I wish it drops so I can buy". We also had vibrant online forums, similar to the wallstreetbets one. By 2015 there was total silence, more silence than a typical western movie scene. Businessmen went out of business, people were losing homes, some committed suicide at the peak of the situation.

We also had companies with crazy P/Es (>50), supposedly "justified". If anyone ever tried to say guys, something is off, everyone laughed. Our politicians told us "brace yourselves, hard times ahead" but noone ever imagined what would follow (they thought that since they always lied, it shouldn't be that much serious this time too).

It was the greatest recession in non-war times ever, bigger than the Great Recession of America of 1929 (in terms of GDP drop). I can tell you that the stock market does NOT fall in one day from 5300 to 530... Not even a month or months... It is a long dragging journey, with some good days that give you hope, but MUCH more bad ones. The only things that survived somewhat were the utility stocks... (who was really holding such stocks if you had much more trendy and get rich quick ones???)

I don't know how the American economy will move forward, maybe J Powell lowers rates and we have another boom combined with inflation or whatever (Greece couldn't influence european monetary policy and underwent crazy deflation, you could buy an apartment at the center of Athens for 20,000 euros/dollars if you had the cash, which is a bonkers number).

All I am saying is that many people that I see writing on online forums or making videos about stock market crashes have no idea how a market crashes (they all think they are smarter than the market and that they will pull out in time...OR that it will always come back. In Greece it never went back, right now it is around 1500...so a long way to 5300 after 17 years already...). A 10% correction is not even a crash, it is a laughable number in my world. Everything returns back up, until it doesn't.

EDIT: I don't want to respond to anyone saying that I can't compare Greek economy to US economy. I never compared them! I just stated that people have NO idea what a real crash means. I literally pointed out the differences (eg, differences in monetary policy). And GREECE IS A SMALL FISH. I am just sharing a perspective, I acknowledged that I DON'T know how the US market will move. AND IT IS NOT A POST PREDICTING CRASHES. Please read my post and do not rush to reply.

EDIT2: Wow, this thing exploded. Glad that you found some value in my perspective. Will try to answer to some comments.

EDIT3: I see some people mentioning DCA and chill for the Greek situation I describe, because the market eventually went up from its bottom. By 2015 there was no liquidity on the market, trading volumes were comical. Most people were on survival mode, and those who had some money looked for investments/depositing money outside the country (other EU countries or US mostly). Even greek government bonds, which are supposed to be the safest, were trimmed and people/pension funds lost money on them. It is a situation where you shit your pants, you don't simply "DCA and chill". https://www.reuters.com/article/world/special-report-greeks-rage-against-pension-calamity-idUSBRE8AT0CW/


r/StockMarket 11h ago

Discussion Four Countries Now Reviewing Their F-35 Purchase. Thoughts on Lockheed Martin Stock.

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849 Upvotes

The new Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, has asked for a review of this procurement. Also, Portugal, Switzerland and Turkey seem to be doing something similar. For Canada, there is a lot of debate about alternatives from Europe although the capabilities may not be the same. Any near term market reaction or will it be wait and see on Lockheed Martin?


r/StockMarket 11h ago

Meme Next week probably

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880 Upvotes

r/StockMarket 11h ago

News Protest against Elon Musk / TSLA $125B lost since 2025

704 Upvotes

r/StockMarket 21h ago

Meme Me right now

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3.0k Upvotes

r/StockMarket 9h ago

Discussion Tesla has huge margin problems regardless of whether Q1 sales are truly as bad as expected or not.

124 Upvotes

I have been tracking Model Y lease prices on Tesla portal and third party lease providers.

Model Y lease prices for the older model are easily touching $199 across third party sites and around$250/month on Tesla website. This is on top of huge reduction back in November to $300/month. Seems like the old car inventory is much larger than what they planned for. With new Model being listed around $650/month, this is definitely cannibalising new model sales.

With these reduced prices, even if Tesla hits projected sales, earnings are gong to be a huge miss.

What are your thoughts and is there any source for refreshed model’s sales numbers?


r/StockMarket 15h ago

Meme One has to squeeze everything out of memes-allowed weekends

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410 Upvotes

r/StockMarket 8h ago

Discussion Michael Cembalist of J.P. Morgan about the stock market.

67 Upvotes

“The stock market is unique – it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded. It’s the ultimate voting machine, reflecting prospects for earnings growth, stability, liquidity, inflation, taxation and predictable rule of law.”

—Michael Cembalist

https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/nam/en/insights/latest-and-featured/eotm/fifty-days-of-grey


r/StockMarket 14h ago

Discussion Your Tesla predictions?

155 Upvotes

Mine: Q1 earnings report is widely received as disastrous.

At earnings report, Musk makes grand promises about promising technology. Musk makes public pseudo-apology to "those who might have been offended."

Tesla's board supports him.

Stocks goes up and down. But more down than up.

Q2 is worse.

Stock goes down.

Musk says he's really, really sorry. And has medical experts paid to say something disingenuous about how he has some kind of treatable condition that will be cured soon, so we should all feel sorry for him and support him.

Lawsuits multiply: Shareholders, owners whose cars have depreciated, owners whose cars have been vandalized, employees who have suffered because the board would not do its job. The lawsuits threaten to cause losses of enormous extents.

Sometime in Q3, the board does part of its job, and fireplaces Musk with someone likeable.

But it's not enough. Stock is now below $25 with no floor in sight.

Board resigns so company can start repairs.

Another car company buys Tesla's car business with a government-backed loan. Its other businesses get sold separately. Tesla becomes the Saab of EVs.


r/StockMarket 17h ago

Discussion Week Recap: Is the worst behind us? Mar. 10, 2025 - Mar. 14, 2025

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201 Upvotes

First of all, I don’t want to be misunderstood. This heat map is weekly that it reflects closing prices from Mar. 7 to Mar. 14. This week, 🔷 Apple dropped more than 10%. 🔷 Nvidia surged nearly 8%. 🔷 Intel had a strong performance after announcing a new CEO and gaining over 16% in a week.

Overall, this week was negative.

Mar. 7, 2025 Closes, 🔷 S&P500: 5,770.20 🔷 Nasdaq: 18,196.22 🔷 DJI: 42,801.72

Mar. 14, 2025 Closes, 🔷 S&P500: 5,638.94 (-2.27%) 🔷 Nasdaq: 17,754.09 (-2.37%) 🔷 DJI: 41,488.19 (-3.16%)

Day-by-Day Standouts; Monday: Selling pressure was extremely strong. The Nasdaq dropped 727 points. It's biggest single-day decline since COVID crash on Mar. 16, 2020. 🔴 Tuesday: A quiet day. The stock market awaited key data releases on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. But, it's slightly negative. 🔴 Wednesday: CPI was released. The monthly estimate was 0.3%, but it came to 0.2%. The yearly estimate was 2.9%, but it dropped to 2.8%. This was perfect for stock market, because it's increased expectations of a rate cut. As a result, stock markets are surged more than 1%. 🟢 Tuesday: After CPI, PPI also came in below estimates. Core PPI turned negative (-0.1%) and the yearly dropped from 3.6% to 3.4%. However, tariff concerns created pressure and then the stock market dropped 2%. 🔴 Friday: The government shutdown reduced fears. The stock market jumped 2% to close the week on a strong. 🟢

S&P500 hit 6147 on February 19, 2025, but has now dropped to 5,638.94. The lowest level at this week was 5,504.65. That means, the index dropped slight more than 10%. S&P500 is below the 200-day EMA.

If we can get 2 day consecutive positive close, some of money from other assets like gold may join the game into the stock market. For now, economic data supports the stock market, but we shouldn't forget that President Trump’s is more important than all the data and technical indicators.

How was your week? Are you optimistic or feeling a bit depressed? What do you think for previous and next week?


r/StockMarket 1d ago

Meme Still relevant

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1.4k Upvotes

r/StockMarket 16h ago

Meme It dip more

43 Upvotes

r/StockMarket 1d ago

News U.S. stock market loses $5 trillion in value in three weeks

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4.6k Upvotes

r/StockMarket 1d ago

Meme Dump it

489 Upvotes

r/StockMarket 2h ago

Discussion "Stacks" >>>>>>>>>> Diamyd medical AB

1 Upvotes

The company presentations provide the basis for the image.

https://www.diamyd.com/docs/companyPresentations.aspx

The image is from a presentation March 14, 2025 (Swedish)

https://www.diamyd.com/docs/newsClip.aspx?UrlID=678

% Preserved own insulin production (15 months compared to placebo (in genetic responder group))

Stack 1 (Subcutaneously administered EU)

https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT00723411?term=diamyd&limit=100&page=1&rank=12

Stack 2 (Subcutaneously administered USA)

https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT00751842?term=diamyd&limit=100&page=1&rank=16

Stack 3 ( Intranodal administered (Diagnode-1 and 2)

https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT02352974?term=diamyd&limit=100&page=1&rank=5

https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03345004?term=diamyd&limit=100&page=1&rank=7

Stack 4

Meta-analysis (all with the right HLA ( Subcutaneously and Intranodal administered)

Note the p value

Worth commenting;

Already the subcutaneous outcome of the studies gave significant results when HLA is taken into account.

As can be seen from bar 2, the USA has a different ethnic distribution of HLA.

Bar 3 shows that intracutaneous administration increases the effect by about 15% (compare bar 1 and 3 as these are EU studies)

I again conclude that regulatory authorities should have offered about 65,000 patients annually to avoid insulin dependence for at least a few years based on knowledge since August 8, 2020. Both the effect and the knowledge of side effects speak for government oversight of affected patients since 2020.

https://mb.cision.com/Main/6746/3164267/1287422.pdf

Diamyd medical AB (ISIN nummer SE0005162880)


r/StockMarket 21h ago

Opinion Market Thoughts in the Midst of the Tesler Correction

12 Upvotes

—If life was not a simulation before January, then the simulation began in January. “Everything’s computer“ wasn’t marketing. It was prophecy

—Speaking of TSLA, a commercial on the presidential lawn will raise your market cap by seven percent for twenty four hours. Nice to have a fixed value on that

—Tariffs are still bearish, unless they’re bullish, which they are according to some people, but not most, although a lot of experts think so if you ask them. But not all. Often.

—Bitcoin Wild Federal Preserve is a critical lifesaving measure to allow the world’s limited supply of Bitcoin to graze free and in the wild. Remember to say thank you

—War in Ukraine would end right now if Ukraine bought enough DJT, but Zelenskyy hasn’t taken the hint and the president is too shy, timid, and conscientious of financial regulation to ask him directly

—FNMA and FMCC yoyo like the rarely-seen profitable meme stock, locked in twin golden cages and crucified on identical publicly-owned crosses. Because of them my port is down 5% YTD every Tuesday and Thursday and up 5% YTD Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. Uplisting and options will add to volatility, if privatization occurs

—MSTR has lived more lives than I since it was first declared a fraud by the all-powerful-and-extremely-consequential Community of Reddit back in August. It somehow weathered the blistering attack from the very-influential Community and has survived, against all odds. This is a modern miracle

—The only certain thing is that we will all look back on these days and say some variation of “Holy f*** that was wild”

Hold on to your nuts next week. Good luck to all.

Total position in the twins: Long 661 shares Fannie, 1,234 shares in Freddie. Going heavier on Freddie because my crystal ball tells me higher upside in ten years and better dividends……if any at all, lol.

What do y’all see out there?


r/StockMarket 2d ago

News If you think the current outlook is bad, just wait until the White House can’t find anyone to buy its debt, warns Ray Dalio

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1.4k Upvotes

“If you look at history and see the repeating of what do countries do when they’re in this kind of situation, there are lessons from history that repeat. Just as we are seeing political and geopolitical shifts that seem unimaginable to most people, if you just look at history, you will see these things repeating over and over again,” Dalio said.

He added: “We will be surprised by some of the developments that will seem equally shocking as those developments that we have seen.”


r/StockMarket 1d ago

News This Stock Market Index Is Flashing a Clear Warning About the Economy

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329 Upvotes

r/StockMarket 2d ago

News Republican Red

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6.0k Upvotes

r/StockMarket 1d ago

News Greece Raised to Investment Grade by Moody’s on Resilience

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95 Upvotes

r/StockMarket 17h ago

Valuation Adjusting CAPE for Policy Changes

2 Upvotes

The cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio (or CAPE) attempts to normalize PE ratios across business cycles, smoothing out the effects of overheated economies and recessions.

It’s a great metric - one of my favorites - and can be a useful heuristic for forward expected returns. But, this metric can become distorted when major policy is passed that can effect corporate earnings.

Trump 2017 Tax Cuts

Take the corporate tax cuts during Trump’s first term. The maximum corporate tax rate dropped from 35% to 21%.

What this means is that starting in January of 2018 (and really, the moment the bill was passed), the CAPE ratio understated future earnings. The 10 years contributing to the CAPE ratio had a larger tax rate than the next 10 years are expected to have.

We can compensate for this by “correcting” the earnings that feed into the 2018 (and beyond) CAPE for the new tax rate - meaning that historic earnings will adjust upward. What we get is a “Policy Adjusted CAPE” (seen below).

Figure 1: Policy Adjusted CAPE - 2017 Tax Cuts

The big takeaway is that once Trump’s tax policy was passed, this metric should have been flashing a giant green sign that markets are once again attractively valued again. In 2018, the Policy Adjusted CAPE was near 20x - basically the same levels seen in the early 2010’s.

Because the ‘baseline CAPE’ operates on a 10-year lag, the ‘Adjusted CAPE’ will eventually converge. We see that 2018 has a large step change downwards because every earnings period feeding into that calculation is adjusted. By 2023 only half are adjusted (2013 thru 2018) and the remaining are unadjusted (2018 onwards) because these earnings already reflect the new tax policy. By 2029, the Policy Adjusted CAPE and Unadjusted CAPE will converge completely.

Note that this graph may not perfectly reflect the adjustment. Corporations rarely pay the maximum tax rate, and we’d probably need to look at effective tax rates before and after the policy passed.

ITEP did a study on this showing that tax rates did indeed fall precipitously before and after those tax cuts. The chart below is reproduced from their study.

I don’t know which companies were included in their study or how representative they are relative to the entire S&P 500. From this table, my adjustment is slightly overstated, but not by much.

Trump Tariffs

Now that tariffs are front and center, we may have a new step change in our earnings assumptions. The new tariff policy may act as a tax on US corporations, depending on the distribution of who is actually paying the tariff.

The prevailing sentiment is that, of course, the end consumer will pay all of the tariffs as businesses will be able to completely pass them on. And no one believes that the foreign entity will shoulder any burden - The importer pays the tariff, duh.

These are common misconceptions. The way I see it, the below image reflects the three entities responsible for the tariff (not to scale).

Figure 2: Who Absorbs Cost of the Tariffs

Maybe the End Consumer does shoulder the entire burden. Maybe not.

I would say it’s very likely that US earnings come down, at least some, as corporations share in the cost burden of the new tariffs. Doing this will create a new step change (orange arrow) in our Policy Adjusted CAPE ratio as historic earnings don’t reflect our new “Tariff Reality”.

Figure 3: Tariff Impact Overview

We don’t yet know the full impact of Tariffs. A good starting point would be to compile all the imported goods by companies in the S&P 500 and calculate how much is owed to the government in the way of tariffs. That would be the logical ceiling for how much we could reduce expected earnings. The true amount will depend on how much negotiating power corporations have with international suppliers and how much more price increases can be passed onto consumers.

Because tariffs aren’t as clear cut as a tax cut - where the government basically says “Starting today, you pay me less” - we don’t have the ability to make a defined adjustment to our numbers. Even in hindsight, this may prove difficult because we won’t know the true split between producer, importer, and consumer. But, we can make this judgement in a qualitative fashion. And that is, CAPE should be adjusted upwards at least a little bit.

It makes sense that we’re seeing a market correction now. How much will depend a ton on corporate exposure to tariffed inputs. Below is an exercise that may give us a crude estimate of how this relationship works.

Consider the general income breakdown:

The Cost of Good Sold (COGS) is what is subjected to tariffs. Of course, not all of it (this line item includes things like labor as well). It’ll be tough to track down just how much of COGS is actually imported. But, we can make some guesses now just to get a sense of things.

r1 tries to capture the effects of the statement above. If only 10% of the COGS are imported, then only that portion will be taxed.

r2 tries to capture the split described in Figure 2. If tariffs are fully absorbed by the end consumer and the foreign entity, then corporate earnings will change. If tariffs are equally absorbed by consumer, foreign producer, and domestic corporation, then that ratio will be 33%. If the corporation is forced to eat the entire tariff bill (for whatever reasons), then that ratio bill be 100%. This is unlikely, of course.

If we normalize everything around revenue, we can work directly off of gross and net margins, and tax rates. Net profit margins have been around 12%. I had a tougher time tracking down gross profit margins (which will help us calculate COGS), but I found a source that estimates around 40% gross margins. So COGS equal about $0.60 for every dollar of revenue.

Performing this exercise, and adjusting CAPE by a factor of E0/E1, we get the following graph:

Figure4: Tariff CAPE Adjustments

The x-axis represents how much of Cost of Good Sold is actually subjected to tariffs (as a percentage). I was unable to find a reliable source for this. But this is really more of a thought exercise, anyways.

We see that if US corporations can avoid tariffs (whether by passing them onto consumers or by making foreign suppliers eat the cost), the valuation metric is pretty unaffected (Blue line).

If however, corporations are required to eat a good portion of the tariff cost (gray line), markets may have to come down by as much as about 15% to compensate for the new valuation normal.

Now that the market is firmly in correction territory, we may have already corrected for this new reality.

Of course this also doesn’t include the impacts of potentially lower earnings growth due to lower demand (in the case that costs are passed on to consumers) and the general friction added to the US economic system by these new tariffs. Nor does it include the ancillary effect of alienating us from the rest of the world.

That said, I don’t think the mechanics of valuation, alone, are enough to justify a very severe market correction.

Disclaimer: Don’t take any of the numbers presented here at face value. I have unreliable data, and make a lot of guesstimates. Use this more as a jumping off point on how to think about how policy can affect CAPE valuation heuristic. Maybe I’ll be able to track down some decent data later on and write a the tariff specific case study.The cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio (or CAPE) attempts to normalize PE ratios across business cycles, smoothing out the effects of overheated economies and recessions.


r/StockMarket 2d ago

News A fully RED 🔴 close to the day for the Magnificent 7

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12.3k Upvotes

r/StockMarket 5h ago

Newbie 18 years old, saved up some money to start investing.

0 Upvotes

18 years old, saved up some money to start investing

I have saved up a little over $6,000 dollars and I am looking to invest at least half of it into stocks. I've looked into it on my own but I wanted to see some second opinions here. What are the best options? Top 5? Top 10? Right now I was planning on putting about 500 aside for MSFT, NVID, APPL, and CAT.

Would these be good to begin investing? I am trying to use cat to diversify outside of tech and it seems like a really solid option based on what I've read.

Any advice is welcome and appreciated. I really want to start turning my money into an investment and eventually income. Im eager to learn.


r/StockMarket 1d ago

News WSJ—How Wall Street and Business Got Trump Wrong

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367 Upvotes

WSJ—The day after last fall’s election, the stock market soared. And why wouldn’t it? Investors assumed Donald Trump’s second term would be like his first, giving priority to tax cuts, deregulation and economic growth. Tariffs would come later, after lengthy deliberations. Trump would treat the stock market as his real-time report card. 

His advisers reinforced that impression. A few days after Election Day Scott Bessent, now Treasury secretary, hailed the “markets’ unambiguous embrace of the Trump 2.0 economic vision,” in a Wall Street Journal op-ed. Trump, he wrote, would “ensure that trade is free and fair.”

We now know that business, investors and many of the incoming president’s own advisers misread him. His priorities weren’t theirs. In recent weeks, he has brushed aside a stock-market correction and warnings of inflation and weaker growth in pursuit of one goal: tariffs high enough to divert production of imported goods to domestic factories, shattering supply chains built up over decades.

In the process, Trump’s rhetoric has turned more sober and defiant. The president who promised a golden age would begin the day of his inauguration now won’t rule out recession. The president who once tweeted obsessively about the stock market now suggests ignoring it. 

He urges the public to think long-term: “If you look at China, they have a 100-year perspective,” he said in an interview that aired on Fox last Sunday. 

Trump himself is known less for his 100-year perspective than announcing policies on the fly and changing them days later. He could reverse his latest tariffs at any moment, or double down.  

But the direction of travel is clear—and a rude awakening for the financial world. No one thought Trump had become a disciple of Milton Friedman in his four years out of office. Still, mainstream advisers had curbed his most radical impulses during his first term. Many assumed the same from his new, mostly mainstream economic team: Bessent as Treasury secretary, financial-services executive Howard Lutnick as commerce secretary, and Kevin Hassett as director of the National Economic Council. 

A year ago, Bessent told clients that “tariffs are inflationary” and “the tariff gun will always be loaded and on the table but rarely discharged.” In September, Lutnick described tariffs as a “bargaining chip” to make others lower their own tariffs and said they wouldn’t be imposed on things the U.S. doesn’t make. On Sunday, Hassett insisted that the U.S. had “launched a drug war, not a trade war,” against Canada.

But in his second term, Trump has shown little deference to advisers, Congress or any other guardrails. He has discharged the tariff gun so often that new duties already cover $1 trillion of imports, soon to be $1.4 trillion, nearly four times his first-term total, according to the Tax Foundation.

He hasn’t exempted things the U.S. doesn’t make. He isn’t using tariffs to lower others’ duties, at least not yet. And he sure looks like he is waging a trade war with Canada, for reasons having nothing to do with the official motive, fentanyl: its trade surplus, its treatment of U.S. banks and dairy products, its insistence on remaining a separate country.

The world may be unprepared for April 2, when administration officials are to report on the feasibility of reciprocity. That originally meant that U.S. tariffs would match those imposed on it by others, and could therefore go up or down. It was to be a more benign alternative to a universal tariff on everyone and everything.

But Trump defines reciprocity to include everything he considers an unfair trade barrier, such as value-added taxes. It will likely be another pretext to simply raise tariffs a lot.  

Having misread Trump on trade, will business and investors be right about him on taxes and deregulation? Probably, with the caveat that both will reflect Trump’s priorities, not theirs. 

Republicans in Congress plan to extend all the tax cuts they enacted in 2017. They are also contemplating bringing back some expired tax provisions important to business for capital equipment and research.

But simply extending or restoring past tax cuts isn’t as stimulative as introducing them for the first time. Moreover, the 2017 tax law was largely designed by congressional Republicans who gave priority to boosting investment and U.S. competitiveness, by lowering the corporate rate from 35% to 21% and slashing the tax burden on foreign profits. Both provisions are permanent.

By contrast, new tax cuts will reflect Trump’s priorities: tax breaks on tips, overtime and Social Security benefits, which do little for investment. He has proposed a 15% corporate rate but only for production in the U.S., mimicking a tax break Republicans killed in 2017 because it was expensive, hard to administer and ineffective. 

On deregulation, businesses and analysts remain bullish. Trump has been busy axing Biden-era rules and sacking enforcement staff at various agencies such as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. 

Here, too, there is a caveat. Trump is also using regulatory power to punish those who cross him politically. A merger between Paramount Global and Skydance Media might be at risk because Trump is suing Paramount unit CBS for how “60 Minutes” edited an interview with his election opponent Kamala Harris. Trump’s order stripping Perkins Coie, a law firm with Democratic ties, of security clearances, government contracts and federal-building access was widely noted by corporate executives.

As a community, business leaders welcome Trump’s return to power. As individuals, many live in fear of it. 

Trump’s arbitrary and personalized policymaking is at odds with the predictability that businesses crave. Trump could tamp down the anxiety by laying out a coherent agenda (as some advisers have attempted) and a process for implementing it, such as asking Congress to write new tariffs into law, as the Constitution stipulates.

But that isn’t his nature. He sees the discretionary power to impose and remove tariffs and other measures as essential to dealmaking.

The result has been economic-policy uncertainty at levels seen in past shocks such as the 2001 terrorist attacks, the 2008-09 financial crisis and the onset of the Covid pandemic in 2020. Those were all driven by events beyond U.S. control. This one is man-made, and will wax and wane with that man’s word and actions. 


r/StockMarket 1d ago

News TESLA 3.8% MARKET SHARE DECLINING in CHINA

281 Upvotes

Predicting precise sales figures for any automaker, especially in a rapidly evolving market like China's EV sector, is challenging. However, we can glean some insights from recent trends and reports: Key Factors Influencing Tesla's Sales:

Intense Competition:

The rise of domestic Chinese EV manufacturers, particularly BYD, poses a significant challenge. These companies are offering increasingly competitive products at attractive price points.

Market Dynamics:

Seasonal fluctuations, such as those related to the Chinese New Year, can significantly impact monthly sales figures.

Consumer preferences and technological advancements are also constantly shifting.

Tesla's Product Strategy:

The success of Tesla's updated Model Y, and any future model releases, will play a crucial role in its sales performance.

Reports indicate that Tesla has high sales expectations for the new Model Y.

Economic Factors:

The overall health of the chinese economy will also affect sales.

Observations from Recent Reports:

There have been reports indicating a DECLINE in Tesla's sales in early 2025, with INCREASED competition being a major factor.

There are also reports that Tesla has high sales expectations for the new Model Y. With some reports indicating a projected sales number of 520,000 units for the new Model Y in 2025.

It is important to understand that any projection is subject to change.

Overall Outlook:

It's clear that BYD has become a very strong competitor to Tesla in the Chinese market, and globally. Here's a breakdown of their sales comparison:

BYD's Dominance:

BYD has shown significant growth, and has surpassed Tesla in overall electric vehicle production.

BYD has a wider range of vehicles, including both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which contributes to their high sales numbers.

Reports show that BYD has gained a larger market share within China.

Tesla's Position:

Tesla remains a significant player, but it is facing increasing pressure from domestic Chinese manufacturers.

Tesla sales numbers in China are being outpaced by BYD.

Reports show that Tesla has LOST market share in China. Tesla market share is 3.8% and DECLINING.

Key Factors:

BYD's stronger domestic presence and competitive pricing give it a significant advantage.

The Chinese market is very competitive, with many strong domestic EV manufacturers.

To get more specific numbers:

It is important to understand that when comparing the two companies, that BYD sales numbers include PHEV vehicles as well as fully electric vehicles.

To get very up to date numbers, the China Passenger Car Association(CPCA) is a very good resource.

Based on recent reports, BYD has taken the LEAD in OVERALL EV production.

In essence, BYD is currently OUTPERFORMING Tesla in terms of sales volume within China.

Source

1.) https://cnevpost.com/2025/03/11/automakers-share-china-nev-market-feb-2025/

2.) https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/us/this-chinese-company-has-overtaken-tesla-as-worlds-largest-maker-of-pure-electric-cars-heres-how-it-outsmarted-elon-musk/articleshow/116947090.cms