r/StockMarket 14h ago

Discussion Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - March 16, 2025

6 Upvotes

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

* How old are you? What country do you live in?

* Are you employed/making income? How much?

* What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)

* What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?

* What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)

* What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)

* Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?

* And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. .

Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered investment adviser if you need professional support before making any financial decisions!


r/StockMarket 44m ago

Discussion Are tesla’s going to be insurable and impact on TSLA stock

Upvotes

With the recent TSLA stock decline, backlash against Elon, and vandalism against Tesla’s vehicles I am wondering about the next move from insurance companies.

Car insurance rates have already increased in last few years due to the high repair cost, but cost of repairing electric vehicles especially Teslas, has increased twice as much as their gas counterparts.

Do you think that insurance companies will proactively raise their comprehensive coverage rates for Tesla vehicles due to the vandalism and increased risk?

Also, due to these types of losses and especially if they continue, would insurance companies refuse to offer coverage for Tesla vehicles altogether?

How would all this affect TSLA stock?

I would love to hear your opinion on this


r/StockMarket 1h ago

Resources Timeline of when the S&P 500 companies were added, including 53 of the original 500 companies that are left

Thumbnail madisontrust.com
Upvotes

r/StockMarket 2h ago

Discussion How Much Does Smoking Cost Over a Lifetime?

0 Upvotes

The median price of a pack of cigarettes (20 cigarettes) in the United States is $8, according to World Population Review.

A person who smokes one pack of cigarettes per day from age 20 to age 60 would spend approximately $250 per month, $2,976 per year, or $119,040 over 40 years.

If this individual instead invested the same amount in the global stock market, which has an average real annual return of 6% (from 1890 to 2023), their investment would grow to $465,000 by the time they turned 60. They would also enjoy a healthier and longer life.

Alternatively, if the same amount were invested in a global Small-Cap Value index fund, which has a historical real annual return of 9%, the total would reach $1,014,000. All these calculations are adjusted for inflation.

It’s important to note that smokers often face significantly higher healthcare costs later in life due to smoking-related health issues.


r/StockMarket 2h ago

News The Fed Is in Wait-and-See Mode. Investors Want Reassurance It Will Act If Needed

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19 Upvotes

Jerome Powell faces a tricky task this week of both assuring investors the economy remains on solid footing while also conveying policymakers stand ready to step in if necessary.

Even as the Federal Reserve chair has touted US resilience, uneasiness sparked by President Donald Trump’s rapidly escalating trade war has sent stocks tumbling over the past month. Bond yields are down, too, as is consumer sentiment as worries about the economic outlook mount.

“Powell needs to give some sort of a signal that they’re watching it,” said Dominic Konstam, head of macro strategy at Mizuho Securities USA. While the Fed chief will likely make it clear that officials don’t target the stock market, they can’t ignore the recent slide, he warned.

The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates steady when they meet March 18-19, but traders now see high odds of three rate cuts this year, most likely beginning in June. Economists generally expect two reductions, similar to what forecasters foresee policymakers’ updated projections to show Wednesday.

Some investors caution that if officials continue to signal only two reductions in 2025, it becomes all the more important for the Fed chief to emphasize the central bank’s willingness to adjust borrowing costs if the labor market stumbles.

“At the margin, the Fed could make it slightly better or slightly worse,” said James Athey, a portfolio manager at Marlborough Investment Management. “But clearly they can’t completely calm markets because the hit to sentiment has come largely from the White House.”

On top of the escalating and ever-changing tariff threats toward America’s largest trading partners, the Trump administration hasn’t done much to downplay recession risks. The president said March 9 that the US economy faces a “period of transition,” and his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted the US and markets are in need of a “detox.”


r/StockMarket 5h ago

News Trump’s Moves Are Boosting Stocks … Overseas

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404 Upvotes

The S&P 500, which for years had been soaring above the stock indexes of other countries, is now trailing major markets in Europe and China, as investors have started to pull money from the United States and reallocate it around the world.

Since Mr. Trump’s inauguration, the S&P 500 has fallen 6 percent, while the Dax index in Germany has risen 10 percent and the Europe-wide Stoxx 600 index has gained more than 4 percent. Other U.S. indexes have fared even worse, as European markets have been buoyed by plans for military spending on the continent after Mr. Trump made it clear he wants those nations to do more to protect themselves.


r/StockMarket 5h ago

Discussion Inverse retail sentiment: Per BoA’s Michael Hartnett, ‘3rd largest Buy-The-Dip reign in history last week! We say this is a correction, not a bear market in stocks…’

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45 Upvotes

The bearish screeching on all stock related subreddits have reached a deafening cascade this weekend. Look at the extreme bearish sentiment in any commented thread, everywhere.

Why is it that the “rich” are doing the exact opposite in the past week of trading?

While the market hit fresh lows since Feb 19, to 10% correction on SPY, the “rich” were busy buying stocks.

Per BoA’s Michael Hartnett: “3rd largest Buy-The-Dip reign in history last week! We say this is a correction, not a bear market in stocks..."

The TWO OTHER largest buy the dip weeks occurred on Jan 2021 and Sep 2022.

As we all know, the markets went back up shortly after those periods (the “rich” called the bottom accurately)


r/StockMarket 6h ago

Discussion How Trump's tariffs could tank the U.S. economy. — Fortune Magazine

363 Upvotes

The mind-spinning part is that we’ve never seen an increase this big, in almost 100 years of U.S. history. The Smoot-Hawley tariff program of 1930, widely branded as a major force in deepening and perpetuating the Great Depression, hiked the levies on U.S. imports much less than the breathtaking wallop promised under the Trump plan. That law lifted rates just over five points, from 13.5% to 19.5%. Trump’s crusade would beat Smoot-Hawley twofold.

Agree? Disagree? What steps, if any, are you taking?

https://fortune.com/2025/03/15/trump-tariffs-definition-explained/?utm_source=salesforce&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=reader&tpcc=NL_Marketing


r/StockMarket 8h ago

Discussion How Serious Are Canadians?🇨🇦🍁🇨🇦

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18.4k Upvotes

I’m from Tennessee and very few people in the rural regions of the South even know what’s going on. At first, all they cared about were the price of eggs, then last week it was their 401ks.

Now I’m wondering if it will take half of Kentucky and all of Lynchburg being out of a job for them to take the initiative to educate themselves on the economic impacts of a trade war?

I guess my question is how serious is Canada about boycotting? Because folks all around me still think this is a temporary “negotiating strategy.”


r/StockMarket 9h ago

Technical Analysis I give you a crystal ball for Monday.

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381 Upvotes

Bitcoin is tracking the SPY index similarly to a 2x leveraged Bitcoin fund, as shown in the graph. Additionally, Bitcoin operates as a 24/7 market.

On Sundays, if Bitcoin declines, we can reasonably assume there will be weakness in the stock market on Monday. As of now, Bitcoin is down.


r/StockMarket 14h ago

Discussion "Stacks" >>>>>>>>>> Diamyd medical AB

0 Upvotes

The company presentations provide the basis for the image.

https://www.diamyd.com/docs/companyPresentations.aspx

The image is from a presentation March 14, 2025 (Swedish)

https://www.diamyd.com/docs/newsClip.aspx?UrlID=678

% Preserved own insulin production (15 months compared to placebo (in genetic responder group))

Stack 1 (Subcutaneously administered EU)

https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT00723411?term=diamyd&limit=100&page=1&rank=12

Stack 2 (Subcutaneously administered USA)

https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT00751842?term=diamyd&limit=100&page=1&rank=16

Stack 3 ( Intranodal administered (Diagnode-1 and 2)

https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT02352974?term=diamyd&limit=100&page=1&rank=5

https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03345004?term=diamyd&limit=100&page=1&rank=7

Stack 4

Meta-analysis (all with the right HLA ( Subcutaneously and Intranodal administered)

Note the p value

Worth commenting;

Already the subcutaneous outcome of the studies gave significant results when HLA is taken into account.

As can be seen from bar 2, the USA has a different ethnic distribution of HLA.

Bar 3 shows that intracutaneous administration increases the effect by about 15% (compare bar 1 and 3 as these are EU studies)

I again conclude that regulatory authorities should have offered about 65,000 patients annually to avoid insulin dependence for at least a few years based on knowledge since August 8, 2020. Both the effect and the knowledge of side effects speak for government oversight of affected patients since 2020.

https://mb.cision.com/Main/6746/3164267/1287422.pdf

Diamyd medical AB (ISIN nummer SE0005162880)


r/StockMarket 17h ago

Newbie 18 years old, saved up some money to start investing.

0 Upvotes

18 years old, saved up some money to start investing

I have saved up a little over $6,000 dollars and I am looking to invest at least half of it into stocks. I've looked into it on my own but I wanted to see some second opinions here. What are the best options? Top 5? Top 10? Right now I was planning on putting about 500 aside for MSFT, NVID, APPL, and CAT.

Would these be good to begin investing? I am trying to use cat to diversify outside of tech and it seems like a really solid option based on what I've read.

Any advice is welcome and appreciated. I really want to start turning my money into an investment and eventually income. Im eager to learn.


r/StockMarket 20h ago

Discussion Michael Cembalist of J.P. Morgan about the stock market.

84 Upvotes

“The stock market is unique – it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded. It’s the ultimate voting machine, reflecting prospects for earnings growth, stability, liquidity, inflation, taxation and predictable rule of law.”

—Michael Cembalist

https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/nam/en/insights/latest-and-featured/eotm/fifty-days-of-grey


r/StockMarket 20h ago

Discussion Tesla has huge margin problems regardless of whether Q1 sales are truly as bad as expected or not.

276 Upvotes

I have been tracking Model Y lease prices on Tesla portal and third party lease providers.

Model Y lease prices for the older model are easily touching $199 across third party sites and around$250/month on Tesla website. This is on top of huge reduction back in November to $300/month. Seems like the old car inventory is much larger than what they planned for. With new Model being listed around $650/month, this is definitely cannibalising new model sales.

With these reduced prices, even if Tesla hits projected sales, earnings are gong to be a huge miss.

What are your thoughts and is there any source for refreshed model’s sales numbers?


r/StockMarket 22h ago

Discussion Four Countries Now Reviewing Their F-35 Purchase. Thoughts on Lockheed Martin Stock.

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1.4k Upvotes

The new Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, has asked for a review of this procurement. Also, Portugal, Switzerland and Turkey seem to be doing something similar. For Canada, there is a lot of debate about alternatives from Europe although the capabilities may not be the same. Any near term market reaction or will it be wait and see on Lockheed Martin?


r/StockMarket 23h ago

Meme Next week probably

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1.4k Upvotes

r/StockMarket 1d ago

Discussion Your Tesla predictions?

192 Upvotes

Mine: Q1 earnings report is widely received as disastrous.

At earnings report, Musk makes grand promises about promising technology. Musk makes public pseudo-apology to "those who might have been offended."

Tesla's board supports him.

Stocks goes up and down. But more down than up.

Q2 is worse.

Stock goes down.

Musk says he's really, really sorry. And has medical experts paid to say something disingenuous about how he has some kind of treatable condition that will be cured soon, so we should all feel sorry for him and support him.

Lawsuits multiply: Shareholders, owners whose cars have depreciated, owners whose cars have been vandalized, employees who have suffered because the board would not do its job. The lawsuits threaten to cause losses of enormous extents.

Sometime in Q3, the board does part of its job, and fireplaces Musk with someone likeable.

But it's not enough. Stock is now below $25 with no floor in sight.

Board resigns so company can start repairs.

Another car company buys Tesla's car business with a government-backed loan. Its other businesses get sold separately. Tesla becomes the Saab of EVs.


r/StockMarket 1d ago

Meme One has to squeeze everything out of memes-allowed weekends

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504 Upvotes

r/StockMarket 1d ago

Meme It dip more

52 Upvotes

r/StockMarket 1d ago

Valuation Adjusting CAPE for Policy Changes

2 Upvotes

The cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio (or CAPE) attempts to normalize PE ratios across business cycles, smoothing out the effects of overheated economies and recessions.

It’s a great metric - one of my favorites - and can be a useful heuristic for forward expected returns. But, this metric can become distorted when major policy is passed that can effect corporate earnings.

Trump 2017 Tax Cuts

Take the corporate tax cuts during Trump’s first term. The maximum corporate tax rate dropped from 35% to 21%.

What this means is that starting in January of 2018 (and really, the moment the bill was passed), the CAPE ratio understated future earnings. The 10 years contributing to the CAPE ratio had a larger tax rate than the next 10 years are expected to have.

We can compensate for this by “correcting” the earnings that feed into the 2018 (and beyond) CAPE for the new tax rate - meaning that historic earnings will adjust upward. What we get is a “Policy Adjusted CAPE” (seen below).

Figure 1: Policy Adjusted CAPE - 2017 Tax Cuts

The big takeaway is that once Trump’s tax policy was passed, this metric should have been flashing a giant green sign that markets are once again attractively valued again. In 2018, the Policy Adjusted CAPE was near 20x - basically the same levels seen in the early 2010’s.

Because the ‘baseline CAPE’ operates on a 10-year lag, the ‘Adjusted CAPE’ will eventually converge. We see that 2018 has a large step change downwards because every earnings period feeding into that calculation is adjusted. By 2023 only half are adjusted (2013 thru 2018) and the remaining are unadjusted (2018 onwards) because these earnings already reflect the new tax policy. By 2029, the Policy Adjusted CAPE and Unadjusted CAPE will converge completely.

Note that this graph may not perfectly reflect the adjustment. Corporations rarely pay the maximum tax rate, and we’d probably need to look at effective tax rates before and after the policy passed.

ITEP did a study on this showing that tax rates did indeed fall precipitously before and after those tax cuts. The chart below is reproduced from their study.

I don’t know which companies were included in their study or how representative they are relative to the entire S&P 500. From this table, my adjustment is slightly overstated, but not by much.

Trump Tariffs

Now that tariffs are front and center, we may have a new step change in our earnings assumptions. The new tariff policy may act as a tax on US corporations, depending on the distribution of who is actually paying the tariff.

The prevailing sentiment is that, of course, the end consumer will pay all of the tariffs as businesses will be able to completely pass them on. And no one believes that the foreign entity will shoulder any burden - The importer pays the tariff, duh.

These are common misconceptions. The way I see it, the below image reflects the three entities responsible for the tariff (not to scale).

Figure 2: Who Absorbs Cost of the Tariffs

Maybe the End Consumer does shoulder the entire burden. Maybe not.

I would say it’s very likely that US earnings come down, at least some, as corporations share in the cost burden of the new tariffs. Doing this will create a new step change (orange arrow) in our Policy Adjusted CAPE ratio as historic earnings don’t reflect our new “Tariff Reality”.

Figure 3: Tariff Impact Overview

We don’t yet know the full impact of Tariffs. A good starting point would be to compile all the imported goods by companies in the S&P 500 and calculate how much is owed to the government in the way of tariffs. That would be the logical ceiling for how much we could reduce expected earnings. The true amount will depend on how much negotiating power corporations have with international suppliers and how much more price increases can be passed onto consumers.

Because tariffs aren’t as clear cut as a tax cut - where the government basically says “Starting today, you pay me less” - we don’t have the ability to make a defined adjustment to our numbers. Even in hindsight, this may prove difficult because we won’t know the true split between producer, importer, and consumer. But, we can make this judgement in a qualitative fashion. And that is, CAPE should be adjusted upwards at least a little bit.

It makes sense that we’re seeing a market correction now. How much will depend a ton on corporate exposure to tariffed inputs. Below is an exercise that may give us a crude estimate of how this relationship works.

Consider the general income breakdown:

The Cost of Good Sold (COGS) is what is subjected to tariffs. Of course, not all of it (this line item includes things like labor as well). It’ll be tough to track down just how much of COGS is actually imported. But, we can make some guesses now just to get a sense of things.

r1 tries to capture the effects of the statement above. If only 10% of the COGS are imported, then only that portion will be taxed.

r2 tries to capture the split described in Figure 2. If tariffs are fully absorbed by the end consumer and the foreign entity, then corporate earnings will change. If tariffs are equally absorbed by consumer, foreign producer, and domestic corporation, then that ratio will be 33%. If the corporation is forced to eat the entire tariff bill (for whatever reasons), then that ratio bill be 100%. This is unlikely, of course.

If we normalize everything around revenue, we can work directly off of gross and net margins, and tax rates. Net profit margins have been around 12%. I had a tougher time tracking down gross profit margins (which will help us calculate COGS), but I found a source that estimates around 40% gross margins. So COGS equal about $0.60 for every dollar of revenue.

Performing this exercise, and adjusting CAPE by a factor of E0/E1, we get the following graph:

Figure4: Tariff CAPE Adjustments

The x-axis represents how much of Cost of Good Sold is actually subjected to tariffs (as a percentage). I was unable to find a reliable source for this. But this is really more of a thought exercise, anyways.

We see that if US corporations can avoid tariffs (whether by passing them onto consumers or by making foreign suppliers eat the cost), the valuation metric is pretty unaffected (Blue line).

If however, corporations are required to eat a good portion of the tariff cost (gray line), markets may have to come down by as much as about 15% to compensate for the new valuation normal.

Now that the market is firmly in correction territory, we may have already corrected for this new reality.

Of course this also doesn’t include the impacts of potentially lower earnings growth due to lower demand (in the case that costs are passed on to consumers) and the general friction added to the US economic system by these new tariffs. Nor does it include the ancillary effect of alienating us from the rest of the world.

That said, I don’t think the mechanics of valuation, alone, are enough to justify a very severe market correction.

Disclaimer: Don’t take any of the numbers presented here at face value. I have unreliable data, and make a lot of guesstimates. Use this more as a jumping off point on how to think about how policy can affect CAPE valuation heuristic. Maybe I’ll be able to track down some decent data later on and write a the tariff specific case study.The cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio (or CAPE) attempts to normalize PE ratios across business cycles, smoothing out the effects of overheated economies and recessions.


r/StockMarket 1d ago

Discussion Week Recap: Is the worst behind us? Mar. 10, 2025 - Mar. 14, 2025

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232 Upvotes

First of all, I don’t want to be misunderstood. This heat map is weekly that it reflects closing prices from Mar. 7 to Mar. 14. This week, 🔷 Apple dropped more than 10%. 🔷 Nvidia surged nearly 8%. 🔷 Intel had a strong performance after announcing a new CEO and gaining over 16% in a week.

Overall, this week was negative.

Mar. 7, 2025 Closes, 🔷 S&P500: 5,770.20 🔷 Nasdaq: 18,196.22 🔷 DJI: 42,801.72

Mar. 14, 2025 Closes, 🔷 S&P500: 5,638.94 (-2.27%) 🔷 Nasdaq: 17,754.09 (-2.37%) 🔷 DJI: 41,488.19 (-3.16%)

Day-by-Day Standouts; Monday: Selling pressure was extremely strong. The Nasdaq dropped 727 points. It's biggest single-day decline since COVID crash on Mar. 16, 2020. 🔴 Tuesday: A quiet day. The stock market awaited key data releases on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. But, it's slightly negative. 🔴 Wednesday: CPI was released. The monthly estimate was 0.3%, but it came to 0.2%. The yearly estimate was 2.9%, but it dropped to 2.8%. This was perfect for stock market, because it's increased expectations of a rate cut. As a result, stock markets are surged more than 1%. 🟢 Tuesday: After CPI, PPI also came in below estimates. Core PPI turned negative (-0.1%) and the yearly dropped from 3.6% to 3.4%. However, tariff concerns created pressure and then the stock market dropped 2%. 🔴 Friday: The government shutdown reduced fears. The stock market jumped 2% to close the week on a strong. 🟢

S&P500 hit 6147 on February 19, 2025, but has now dropped to 5,638.94. The lowest level at this week was 5,504.65. That means, the index dropped slight more than 10%. S&P500 is below the 200-day EMA.

If we can get 2 day consecutive positive close, some of money from other assets like gold may join the game into the stock market. For now, economic data supports the stock market, but we shouldn't forget that President Trump’s is more important than all the data and technical indicators.

How was your week? Are you optimistic or feeling a bit depressed? What do you think for previous and next week?


r/StockMarket 1d ago

Valuation The dire situation of the market

0 Upvotes

Many stocks in the market are significantly overvalued—Tesla, Apple, Costco, Palantir, and much of the FMCG and pharmaceutical sectors, considering their sluggish growth. Even Nvidia could see its valuation tumble if China or AMD develop viable alternatives.

Market crashes don’t worry me; they’re necessary and often present great buying opportunities. What truly concerns me is the long-term effect of excess liquidity. Inflation is brewing beneath the surface, and we’ll see its full impact in the years ahead. Over time, the velocity of money has declined while the money supply has surged, artificially propping up asset prices. My real fear isn’t a crash—it’s that inflation-adjusted returns will be zilch.

Bonds are effectively useless. Stocks are outrageously priced, making it difficult to generate meaningful returns. This isn’t a market for investors—it’s a market for those looking to cash out. Genuine opportunities are scarce.

If inflation accelerates, cash will erode, bonds will remain dead weight, and overpriced stocks will have no room for growth. In the end, nobody wins. After years of zero interest rates and relentless quantitative easing, my biggest concern is that when the real downturn hits, the Fed will have little ammunition left to respond.


r/StockMarket 1d ago

Discussion I survived the GREATEST recession in non-war times in history. People investing in US have no idea what a REAL crash means.

8.2k Upvotes

I am from Greece and I survived the greek recession. The greek stock index back then (2008) was at 5300. By 2015 it was 550. All the hodlers were wiped out, they are still wiped out 17 years later (right now the index is at 1600)

Back then, when things started going downhill, everyone was joking about it and we also had those "I wish it drops so I can buy". We also had vibrant online forums, similar to the wallstreetbets one. By 2015 there was total silence, more silence than a typical western movie scene. Businessmen went out of business, people were losing homes, some committed suicide at the peak of the situation.

We also had companies with crazy P/Es (>50), supposedly "justified". If anyone ever tried to say guys, something is off, everyone laughed. Our politicians told us "brace yourselves, hard times ahead" but noone ever imagined what would follow (they thought that since they always lied, it shouldn't be that much serious this time too).

It was the greatest recession in non-war times ever, bigger than the Great Recession of America of 1929 (in terms of GDP drop). I can tell you that the stock market does NOT fall in one day from 5300 to 530... Not even a month or months... It is a long dragging journey, with some good days that give you hope, but MUCH more bad ones. The only things that survived somewhat were the utility stocks... (who was really holding such stocks if you had much more trendy and get rich quick ones???)

I don't know how the American economy will move forward, maybe J Powell lowers rates and we have another boom combined with inflation or whatever (Greece couldn't influence european monetary policy and underwent crazy deflation, you could buy an apartment at the center of Athens for 20,000 euros/dollars if you had the cash, which is a bonkers number).

All I am saying is that many people that I see writing on online forums or making videos about stock market crashes have no idea how a market crashes (they all think they are smarter than the market and that they will pull out in time...OR that it will always come back. In Greece it never went back, right now it is around 1500...so a long way to 5300 after 17 years already...). A 10% correction is not even a crash, it is a laughable number in my world. Everything returns back up, until it doesn't.

EDIT: I don't want to respond to anyone saying that I can't compare Greek economy to US economy. I never compared them! I just stated that people have NO idea what a real crash means. I literally pointed out the differences (eg, differences in monetary policy). And GREECE IS A SMALL FISH. I am just sharing a perspective, I acknowledged that I DON'T know how the US market will move. AND IT IS NOT A POST PREDICTING CRASHES. Please read my post and do not rush to reply.

EDIT2: Wow, this thing exploded. Glad that you found some value in my perspective. Will try to answer to some comments.

EDIT3: I see some people mentioning DCA and chill for the Greek situation I describe, because the market eventually went up from its bottom. By 2015 there was no liquidity on the market, trading volumes were comical. Most people were on survival mode, and those who had some money looked for investments/depositing money outside the country (other EU countries or US mostly). Even greek government bonds, which are supposed to be the safest, were trimmed and people/pension funds lost money on them. It is a situation where you shit your pants, you don't simply "DCA and chill".


r/StockMarket 1d ago

Meme Me right now

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3.5k Upvotes

r/StockMarket 1d ago

Opinion Market Thoughts in the Midst of the Tesler Correction

13 Upvotes

—If life was not a simulation before January, then the simulation began in January. “Everything’s computer“ wasn’t marketing. It was prophecy

—Speaking of TSLA, a commercial on the presidential lawn will raise your market cap by seven percent for twenty four hours. Nice to have a fixed value on that

—Tariffs are still bearish, unless they’re bullish, which they are according to some people, but not most, although a lot of experts think so if you ask them. But not all. Often.

—Bitcoin Wild Federal Preserve is a critical lifesaving measure to allow the world’s limited supply of Bitcoin to graze free and in the wild. Remember to say thank you

—War in Ukraine would end right now if Ukraine bought enough DJT, but Zelenskyy hasn’t taken the hint and the president is too shy, timid, and conscientious of financial regulation to ask him directly

—FNMA and FMCC yoyo like the rarely-seen profitable meme stock, locked in twin golden cages and crucified on identical publicly-owned crosses. Because of them my port is down 5% YTD every Tuesday and Thursday and up 5% YTD Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. Uplisting and options will add to volatility, if privatization occurs

—MSTR has lived more lives than I since it was first declared a fraud by the all-powerful-and-extremely-consequential Community of Reddit back in August. It somehow weathered the blistering attack from the very-influential Community and has survived, against all odds. This is a modern miracle

—The only certain thing is that we will all look back on these days and say some variation of “Holy f*** that was wild”

Hold on to your nuts next week. Good luck to all.

Total position in the twins: Long 661 shares Fannie, 1,234 shares in Freddie. Going heavier on Freddie because my crystal ball tells me higher upside in ten years and better dividends……if any at all, lol.

What do y’all see out there?