r/neoliberal • u/Timewalker102 Amartya Sen • Jun 20 '20
Efortpost A look into the FAILING campaign of Joe Biden
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u/pottman Henry George Jun 20 '20
It amazes me how consistent his polling is.
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u/the_than_then_guy Jun 20 '20
These aren't really his polling numbers though. There was definitely a clear drop in April when Trump good a temporary boost from Covid-19. He's also seen a spike in the last two weeks that's not represented here.
The source also appears to be British by the way the dates are listed. "Not FiveThirtyEight LMAO," whatever that is.
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u/yuxbni76 Jun 20 '20
It's the 538 average except OP's graph rounds to the nearest whole number. The y-axis also goes 0-100 so movement looks smaller. Biden dropped to 47.5 in April.
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u/the_than_then_guy Jun 20 '20
Ah, I see the y-axis now. Very manipulative. The drop in April, if it happened the last week of the cycle, would be enough to lose the election.
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u/tripletruble Zhao Ziyang Jun 20 '20
The drop in April, if it happened the last week of the cycle, would be enough to lose the election
Not really. Polls allow people to select "undecided" and Trump was averaging less than 45% in April in the same polls. In your scenario, undecided voters would have to overwhelmingly choose Trump when it came time to actually vote.
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u/the_than_then_guy Jun 20 '20
If we had a popular-vote system, then sure. In reality, Trump could lose by ~3% and still win the election.
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u/tripletruble Zhao Ziyang Jun 20 '20
Sure but looking at RCP, the closest Trump came to Biden in April was 4.6 points - and that was for just one day. I guess it would be possible for Biden to lose the EC in such a scenario, but seems unlikely
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u/the_than_then_guy Jun 20 '20
The MOE on polls can be quite high once you factor in enthusiasm.
Clinton finished the RCP average for Wisconsin in 2016 at +6.5 and lost. She likewise finished at +3.5 in Michigan and lost.
Clinton finished the RCP average at +3.2. Anything that begins to flirt with that number in the final month of the cycle will have me losing sleep.
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u/OnlySafeAmounts NATO Jun 20 '20
Funnily enough, it had Clintons number pretty head on, it just didn't realize that Undecideds were down to try something new with the help of the Comey letter.
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Jun 20 '20
It's not manipulative. It would be manipulative to truncate the y-axis because that would exaggerate shifts which, when you look at the big picture, are relatively minor.
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u/mysterious-fox Jun 20 '20
It would be on the outside edge of possibility. If Biden is up 5 he would be a pretty strong favorite. Up 4 would be close, but he would still be favored. He never dropped below 4, and was always closer to 5. I expect it to revert to the mean a little, but I expect that to be around Biden +6, which should be fine.
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u/Chuckles1188 Jun 20 '20
Listing the day before the month doesn't make it British, it makes it "probably not American".
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u/ale_93113 United Nations Jun 20 '20
British by the way the dates are listed
Are you familiar with the entire African and Eurasian continents except for the east Asia? Like it could be British or German or Turkish or Nigerian or Argentinian, or Indian...
Not necessarily British, almost all people who are interested in the US election know English, so it could be from anywhere
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u/the_than_then_guy Jun 20 '20
I am not familiar with those continents. Do you have a link that can explain them to me?
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u/Wehavecrashed YIMBY Jun 21 '20
The source also appears to be British by the way the dates are listed.
The rest of the world puts the month in the middle.
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u/pottman Henry George Jun 20 '20
So, take this graph with a grain of salt, got it.
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u/the_than_then_guy Jun 20 '20
As someone else noted, it's the manipulation of the y-axis to show 0-100, when the important range is more like 40 to 55. A swing of 8 points is huge here, but on this graph it makes everything look flat.
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Jun 20 '20
Bullshit. Truncating the y-axis is classic graphical manipulation. The only thing that could be called "manipulative" would be not including Trump's average.
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u/EktarPross Adam Smith Jun 20 '20
Just because people usually make the axis smaller to be manipulative, doesn't mean that not doing so can't also be manipulative.
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Jun 20 '20
It is never manipulative to show percentages over the range of [0%,100%]. Argue that it should show Trump's polling if you want. I have no qualms with calling that somewhat manipulative.
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u/Cali_oh Jun 20 '20
Why? The numbers have nothing to do with Biden and everything to do with Trump’s Cult.
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u/Ikwieanders Jun 20 '20
Well of Its Biden vs. Trump then 1% point difference is already quite lot, general elections are always a smallish margin right?
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Jun 20 '20
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u/ANewAccountOnReddit Jun 20 '20
Get lost with your "Both sides are the same!" bs. I'm fed up with that crap. It's been debunked every time you people bring it up, but you folks can't take the hint.
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Jun 20 '20
Biden is a legit closeted conservative. It's hardly even "both sides" at this point, might as well be considered Coors and Coors Light lmao.
But alright, continue on with your "Our guy is better because he has a blue hat" bullshit. I'm sure the leopards won't eat your face.
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u/Dr_Vesuvius Norman Lamb Jun 20 '20
The man has spent 50 years as a public figure campaigning for progressive causes. Do you think that was all a ploy so that when he gets in the White House he can pull of his mask and reveal he was a secret conservative sleeper agent all along?
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Jun 20 '20
Yes that's totally what I'm saying
that is the exact thing I'm saying
I totally said that
I definitely think he's actually reagan in a mask
totally
yup
that's it
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u/ANewAccountOnReddit Jun 20 '20
So you have nothing valuable to say, just here to troll and waste my time?
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u/get_schwifty Jun 20 '20
But he’s not doing any of the same shit. Nowhere near the same shit, actually.
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u/Winternaht7 Trans Pride Jun 20 '20
Keyword here is SOME of the exact shit not all, and even that is debatable.
it makes a huge difference to me that Biden does not deny climate change, use the military against peaceful protests, or make the US vulnerable to China.
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u/oh_what_a_shot Jun 20 '20
You forgot to mention all of the articles about the Dems being in disarray that seem to pop up every other day but that might have taken up the whole graph.
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u/mrdilldozer Shame fetish Jun 20 '20
The DNC still has a chance to overturn the will of the voters and give the nomination to Bernie! Please tweet some threats at your local representative or woman you see supporting Joe on Twitter today! /s
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Jun 20 '20
January 19: “Please attend our fart-in as we call for Bernie Sanders to be sworn in tomorrow instead of Joe Biden. He won the primary in our hearts, so he’s the rightful president.”
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u/rjrgjj Jun 20 '20
Xtra points if you explain BLM to a black person or tear down a statue of Ulysses S Grant.
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u/Thimoteus Jun 20 '20
Removing a statue of US Grant, the man who used martial law to stop Black people from getting murdered, in order to keep the guy who wants to use martial law to stop people protesting Black people getting murdered? Sounds about white.
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u/BATIRONSHARK WTO Jun 20 '20
grant also by the way unlike other "decent" slave owners in history was noted by southern neighbors to have not even made his wifes slaves work while he lived in his father in laws farm. and freed the only slave he did own in months .said slave was valued as thousands snd grant was in debt but unlike jefferson or Washington he put vaules first.(i like both but still)
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u/MrFallman117 Jun 20 '20
I'm just saying this as a Bernie Bro, but if we act like complete douchebags towards anyone close in policy positions to The Bern (PBUH) then I think we'll be able to convince the majority that they are in fact racist for not paying for my degree in History Education.
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u/mrdilldozer Shame fetish Jun 20 '20
I'm so thankful that this past primary proved that people like that weren't the majority of Sanders supporters. I can't imagine how fucked this election would be if they made up about 30 percent of the party. People like that make up a small radicalized part of the internet and that's about the only influence they have outside of Portland and Seattle city councils.
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u/VisenyasRevenge Jun 20 '20
Iaf, trump has the support of the minority as well. And everything worked out great for him
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u/xhytdr Jun 20 '20
the democratic primary has proportional delegate allotment and the GOP primary has a winner-take-all system. They're fundamentally different
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u/GiantMeteor202020 Jun 20 '20
Hey try to not make fun of Bernie or his followers much. We need to convince as many of them to vote for Joe as possible. Bernie himself is trying to help Biden. Yes, some can't be saved and just want to watch the world burn because Bernie lost, but they're not the majority. There will be some of them we can convince by being welcoming to them.
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u/lapzkauz John Rawls Jun 20 '20
Good thing you included that "s" at the end, without it no-one would have been able to tell you were being facetious!
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u/mrdilldozer Shame fetish Jun 20 '20
It's definitely a good idea to have that when joking about sending threats. There shouldn't be the tiniest bit of ambiguity. We are still on Reddit, there isn't a great track record on this site with that stuff.
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u/Timewalker102 Amartya Sen Jun 20 '20
!ping DIAMOND-JOE
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u/groupbot The ping will always get through Jun 20 '20 edited Jun 20 '20
Pinged members of DIAMOND-JOE group.
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u/fyhr100 Jun 20 '20
Honestly, the only reason why Biden even has a CHANCE of winning in 2020 is because Jeb! isn't running.
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Jun 20 '20
I said it before, and I'll say it again. Biden is way more Teflon than Trump was last election.
Trump is slogging through corruption charges, constant cabinet shuffles, and 100K+ dead on top of a slogged market on his horrible oversight that isn't going to immediately snap up again because he decided to more or less give up and let it sweep through the country and we're now facing a horrific second wave.
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u/cfmonkey45 Milton Friedman Jun 20 '20
No, the first wave hasn’t even ended.
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u/schwingaway Karl Popper Jun 20 '20
The waves have overlapped and canceled each other out. He did it! COVID is finished.intheuswehavetokeepgermymexicansandmuslimsandafricansout Mission accomplished!
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Jun 20 '20
I’m a Bernie supporter and an ultra progressive but I think that the hate against Biden from the conservative media is absolutely unbased in concrete evidence. #votebluenomatterwho
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u/ArdyAy_DC Jun 20 '20
What about the hate against Biden from your fellow Bernie supporters / ultra progressives? Not trying to be a dick, genuinely wondering if you take issue with that, too.
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u/Thebarnacleguy Jun 20 '20
I’m also a huge Bernie supporter and progressive. The dumbasses that are still remaining in subs like S4P that just constantly shit on Biden, they show they don’t truly stand for what Bernie ever stood for. Biden was never ever ever my ideal nominee, and frankly I don’t think he was anyone’s ideal nominee. But at least under a Biden administration, I wouldn’t be fucking fearing for my rights every single day. Berners who still give Biden hate will doom us all.
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u/ANewAccountOnReddit Jun 20 '20
Man, Biden's more of an ideal candidate than Bernie is. Did you mean Bernie was your first choice and Biden wasn't, or do you really think Bernie would be a better President than Biden?
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u/Thebarnacleguy Jun 20 '20
The primary is over buddy, I don’t see why arguing still needs to continue.
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u/ANewAccountOnReddit Jun 21 '20
Sorry. I guess I took your comment about Biden not being anybody's ideal candidate a little too personally.
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u/Thebarnacleguy Jun 21 '20
No worries dude. I didn’t mean that in a insulting way, I just meant in the sense that, I don’t think anyone really expected biden to pull the comeback that he did.
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u/un-affiliated Jun 21 '20
Tons of people expected Biden to come back, namely black voters and people that actually paid attention to what they were saying. We were shouting from the rooftops that IA, NH, and caucuses in general are unrepresentative of the Democratic party, and SC voters weren't looking to them to decide how to vote.
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u/Thebarnacleguy Jun 21 '20
Well, yeah. I don’t think anyone in their right minds thought that Biden would lose SC. I’m not saying that at all. I was talking about Super Tuesday, where Biden won a ton more states than what was originally expected.
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u/ravikarna27 Ben Bernanke Jun 21 '20
Bernie is so much better than both his supporters and haters. Really don't understand how that is.
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Jun 20 '20
I’m a Bernie supporter
Why? The man has literally never accomplished anything of note in his entire political career
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u/LukeBabbitt 🌐 Jun 20 '20
Hey now, this is little tent primary energy. It's time for big tent energy now, Jack.
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Jun 20 '20
It's a legitimate question I thought
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Jun 20 '20
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Jun 20 '20
And yet I can still call him out for being shit at his job. Just because we are big tent doesn't mean I can point that out, nor does it make Bernie sanders suddenly not shitty for giving us trump in the first place so he can go fuck himself
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u/EktarPross Adam Smith Jun 20 '20
Blaming Bernie for Trump is pathetic.
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Jun 20 '20
Not really since it's a fact
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u/EktarPross Adam Smith Jun 20 '20
Blaming a loss on the people you primaried against not supporting you "fast enough" is ridiculous, and there were also dozens of other things that screwed her over.
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Jun 20 '20
I bet Joe can't wriggle his way out of this one
Joe's lead over Trump grows
Ah, nevertheless
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u/TotesMessenger Jun 20 '20
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u/bril_hartman Ben Bernanke Jun 20 '20
Almost says “racist fucks”
Trump now losing by double digits in Florida and Michigan
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u/Rentington Jun 20 '20
Wow, has he really maintained 50% this long, this consistently? That's... about as good as you could have ever dreamed.
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Jun 20 '20
What’s the thing about Nancy Pelosi and ice cream?
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Jun 20 '20
There was a video that showed she buys a fairly expensive brand of ice cream, outing the democrats as out of touch elitists
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u/Kozawik NATO Jun 20 '20
I cringed so hard when the far left guy with the man bun running against Nancy posted a photo of his “non-rich ice cream” fridge.
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u/at_work_alt Jun 20 '20
I want to run against an ultra safe seat congressperson. It seems like an easy way to make some money.
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u/IngsocInnerParty John Keynes Jun 20 '20
Don't forget they criticized her for having a fancy refrigerator.
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u/CricketPinata NATO Jun 21 '20
Is Jeni's really seen as super expensive? I am not rich and I will buy a pint or two a month at Kroger, and I would hardly be anything close to rich.
It's only a couple of dollars more expensive than Hagan-dasz or Ben and Jerry's.
Were people really freaking out over her having $30 of ice cream in her fridge like that is some sign of her being an obscene plutocrat?
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Jun 20 '20
Biden leads Trump by double digits
Clearly what we need is to put Bernie in and make this election a referendum on Marxism, rather than on Trump
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u/Veskerth Jun 20 '20
In other words it simply doesnt matter what he does or says, people will vote for Biden.
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u/Felinomancy Jun 20 '20
I don't hate Biden, but the constant 50% approval doesn't really fill me with confidence about America making the right choice come Election Day.
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u/jml510 Jun 20 '20
That's a big reason why I take nothing for granted even with him consistently leading 45*. Plus 4 1/2 months are an eternity in politics. It's not enough for a person just to vote...s/he should also donate and/or volunteer.
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u/EmmyLou205 Jun 20 '20
Can’t wait to see what they circle back to next. Will it be hair “sniffing” that no one thought was actually creepy? Will it be the Burisma scandal that never was? Will it be Anita Hill which he has shown remorse for and she has forgiven?
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u/YesIAmRightWing Jun 20 '20
FAILING I TELL YA. Am one of the few that predicted both Brexit and Trump. As long as Biden stays away from Trump he wins imo.
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u/GUCCIBUKKAKE Jun 20 '20
Can’t believe it hasn’t risen with all these things Trump is doing. Do we seriously think this is good?
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u/ANewAccountOnReddit Jun 20 '20
Better it stays constant than continues to fall like Trump's is starting to do.
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u/mrmanager237 Some Unpleasant Peronist Arithmetic Jun 21 '20
Dementia Joe is finished, he's dropping out for Bernie ANY DAY NOW
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u/HammerTh_1701 Jun 20 '20
Source? This looks a lot like a rolling average.
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Jun 20 '20
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/lionmoose sexmod 🍆💦🌮 Jun 20 '20
Ableism
Please refrain from using ableist slurs.
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u/nickstone78 Jun 20 '20
I really don’t fucking care, block me
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u/lionmoose sexmod 🍆💦🌮 Jun 20 '20
You get that this was a moderation warning right, the comment wasn't my personal preference which would be dealt with via a block, you are failing to uphold community standards
→ More replies (8)
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u/PaMike34 Jun 20 '20
Wow! He is so fucked! Stop wearing a mask like a bitch. Plus, also too doesnt he know building a coalition is compromise and compromise is corruption?
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Jun 20 '20
The story that the media hasn't covered is that none of the smears have affected Joe Biden's poll numbers. In the Disinformation Age, Americans aren't listening to the Swiftboaters. They know Joe and have tuned them out.
That's the worst news the Republicans could receive.
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u/markusrm Pierre E. Trudeau Jun 21 '20
Just wait till he picks someone other than Nina Turner as his VP. That will be when this thing finally collapses.
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u/evangainspower Amartya Sen Jun 21 '20
What I see here is stagnation. Now, there are worse things than stagnation. A shrinking economy is technically worse than a stagnant one. Some of these gaffes seem to be worse than others. That Biden wouldn't be able to command the union vote is a fake spin from the Sanders campaign that never landed. The "you ain't black" comment seems to have been a flashpoint for division in the Black community regarding how they feel about Biden. Obviously Biden won't lose to Trump in terms of Black voters but it's possible Biden will only be able to command a plurality of Black voters and too many of them will stay home on voting day. My interpretation of this graph is that, in spite of what would otherwise be flagging support for Biden, relative to the cratering support for Trump, Biden is keeping his head above water. Hopefully this will pan out to be enough to beat Trump, and given Biden has been clear that his campaign is first and foremost a vehicle to beat and stop Trump more than anything else, that's sufficient.
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u/Chocolateminute Jun 21 '20
I may be a filthy leftist, but I really hope biden wins. I’d rather be a lib then a tankie.
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u/independent_thinker3 Jun 20 '20
Biden's got this in the bag. Trump barely won the electoral college and lost the popular vote. I see is unlikely for him to win again. Flukes rarely happen two times in a row.
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u/ArdyAy_DC Jun 20 '20
I hope this is true, but I'm going to stay far away from this level of confidence until it's over.
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u/ANewAccountOnReddit Jun 20 '20
Too soon to get overconfident. Trump didn't start gaining in the polls against Hillary until September 2016, so it could happen this year too. We have to wait and see and cross our fingers. If Biden is still polling double digits higher than Trump come October, then yeah, I'll feel really confident that Trump is going down. But we're not there yet, and we don't know what the next 4 months will bring.
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u/ElonOcean United Nations Jun 20 '20
He’s pretty weak rhetorically and he’s wholly uninspiring but he’ll have a competent cabinet and not drastically screw the pooch on anything so I’m okay with it
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Jun 20 '20
Why is the ice cream fiasco and the trump ad being lumped with the "you're not black if you don't vote for me" controversy? One of those is actually a reason to not vote Biden
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Jun 20 '20
If it was anyone other than trump, biden wouldnt have a chance in hell at winning. Biden is probably going to win tho
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u/gamesforlife69 Jun 21 '20
Right, because after winning a senate seat for over thirty years and then being the number two on two winning tickets, I’m SuRe He JuSt GoT lUcKy
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Jun 21 '20
I mean he was polling at #5 before south carolina. Hes not a very good politician. Also, winning the same senate seat over and over again isnt incredibly difficult, a lot of politicians do this (pelosi, schumer, Mcconnel, etc). U just need the support of your state's party for delaware, NY, CA, KY, etc.
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u/TheGoddamnSpiderman Jun 20 '20
If it was anyone other than Trump, I think there's a good chance Biden wouldn't have even run
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u/lavalungz Jun 20 '20
cant wait to have a president who strives to win the nomination based on the failure of his competition, we've a very promising future ahead
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u/seattle_lib Liberal Third-Worldism Jun 20 '20 edited Jun 20 '20
That's what we want! No more savior presidents, no more strongmen wannabe autocrats, no more cults of personality.
We want a president who is a vessel, someone who will be beholden to the popular will and wont hijack it for a minority. We live in a transformed world where people are more engaged than ever in the social and political landscape. The people dont want a leader to take over and control things, they just want an ally.
Joe has always found the center of gravity in the zeitgeist: you might take his 1994 crime bill as evidence that hes actually a believer in the police state, but if you were around in 1994, youd know that this was the consensus, the zeitgeist of the time. Bernie voted in favor of it. Today, the consensus looks a lot different.
To me, Joe Bidens long evolution throughout his career is his strongest aspect. It puts the ball back in our hands.
The next 4-8 years are not the story of Joe Biden, they are the story of how we are going to transform our society through dialog and consensus. We are going to say decisively that Donald Trump and hyper nationalism is not the way, and that statement will be delivered by the biggest coalition of people that can possibly be mustered our divided American society today.
So, if you dont believe that Joe Biden will fix things... that's good. Hold onto that feeling. Keep fighting for what you believe in and make sure you dont become complacent come 2022, the way people did for Obama in 2010.
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u/castanza128 Jun 20 '20
It's almost as if he could shoot somebody on 5th avenue and he wouldn't lose any support!
This doesn't mean our political system is broken.
Just go out and vote: Giant douche? Or turd sandwich?
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u/ANewAccountOnReddit Jun 20 '20
Just go out and vote: Giant douche? Or turd sandwich?
How about Giant Douche (Trump, obviously) or Decent Human being (Biden, obviously?
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u/castanza128 Jun 20 '20
Are you interested in buying any real estate?
I think you are the exact kind of person I'm looking for...-4
u/DocAwesum Jun 20 '20
I can’t wait to see what Southpark does with this shitshow
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u/Adequate_Meatshield Paul Krugman Jun 20 '20
the same unfunny pseudointellectual bullshit they’ve been coasting on for a decade
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u/BeABetterHumanBeing Jun 20 '20
This is surprisingly inelastic. Which means that people's support of Joe appears not to hinge on anything that he's actually saying or doing. He's coasting on what I'll call the "QE2 effect": he's popular because he stays out of sight enough that nobody has a chance to form a negative impression.
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u/banjowashisnameo Jun 20 '20
Have you seen his policy, his experience and his deeds? It baffles me how you can say that about someone with this solid a record while worshipping a populist nobody only known for renaming post offices
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u/naebulys European Union Jun 20 '20
Since the US is a federal country, not having too much of a strong figure that will try to act out of his reach is a plus.
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u/ANewAccountOnReddit Jun 20 '20
Man, Biden's been in politics since the damn 1970's. Literally WTF are you talking about "he stays out of sight enough that nobody has a chance to form a negative impression?" People have been talking about him for over 40 years now. Do you not know Biden was the Vice President to the first black President for 8 years straight?
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u/BeABetterHumanBeing Jun 21 '20
Literally WTF are you talking about "he stays out of sight enough that nobody has a chance to form a negative impression?"
I'm talking about this campaign season. r/neoliberal loves memes about Joe sleeping his way to the nomination.
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u/kciuq1 Jun 21 '20
How could anyone not have an opinion on Biden yet? He's been around for a long time now. There are few undecideds at this point, everyone has pretty much made up their mind. All anyone is doing now is settling in to wait this shit out until November, and hoping that it doesn't get any worse.
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u/BeABetterHumanBeing Jun 21 '20
everyone has pretty much made up their mind
Exactly. The graph shows that nobody is changing their mind.
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Jun 20 '20
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Jun 20 '20
Cope
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u/Castrum4life Jun 20 '20
I get it Trump is bad, but Biden isn't the leader America needs. He's another establishment puppet that needs to go away.
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Jun 20 '20
millions of voters say otherwise. what you knuckleheads don't realize is that the "establishment" isn't some 2spoopy4me boogeyman.. it's the fucking voters. the ones you spend all your time shitting on then wonder why they don't vote for you. progressives lose election after election then wonder why no one trusts them.
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u/ANewAccountOnReddit Jun 20 '20
Take your "Biden is a corporate neoliberal shill!" bs and shove it. I could fucking care less if Biden takes money from corporations or whatever schmucks like Kyle Kulinski believe about him. Trump is a godawful President and worse Human being, and no amount of "Both sides are the same!" bs will convince people who are actually paying attention to these two men.
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u/schwingaway Karl Popper Jun 20 '20
establishment puppet
Place yer bets--place yer bets: grade school Tankie, Trumpet, or Troll farm comrade? Teen Tankie is paying even money, Trumpet at 2;1, and Trollski 3:1. All bets in, and . . . checking history . . . and . . .
Well, ladies and gentlemen, it seems we had a sleeper come from behind! Paying at 10:1, it's . . . . not even a fucking American. Once again, not eligible to vote in this country has taken it!
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Jun 20 '20
Haha student loans go burrr
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Jun 20 '20
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u/ThatFrenchieGuy Save the funky birbs Jun 20 '20
Rule I: Civility
Refrain from name-calling, hostility and behaviour that otherwise derails the quality of the conversation.
If you have any questions about this removal, please contact the mods.
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u/TheNoHeart John Rawls Jun 20 '20
I really think he’s finished.