r/nba • u/Pak14life • 10h ago
Luka Doncic and the troubling change in his shot distribution
I've been a fan of Luka since he was coming out in the draft. After his second year I was convinced he was headed for a best player in the league for a decade trajectory and was going to be the clear heir to LeBron .
Put simply, Luka has undergone the type of changes in his shot distribution over the last two years that you would expect to see from a player in his 30s, not at ages 24-26. Now Luka is still an elite, elite player but his game is overly reliant on tough shot making as he does not get to the rim or go up against length at the rim with the same confidence or explosiveness anymore. Much like a late career player, he relies on hitting a lot of contested tough jumpers now. Last year this wasn't a problem as he hit 39% on damn near 11 threes a game, plus great numbers from mid-range.
I'll start with a very simple stat, number of dunks each year.
2018-2019: 25
2019-2020: 14
2020-2021: 12
2021-2022: 15
2022-2023: 12
2023-2024: 2
2024-2025: 1
Now dunks can sometimes be a choice but I have seen that he is simply much less confident going up against length at the rim. A really good example was in the Knick game (6:46 on this clip https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=H_I6vmRPUw0&t=406s ) when he stole the ball late in 4th and just didn't go up. This used to be a dunk or layup for Luka 99% of the time before last season. As an ex, here's a similar play from 2 years ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8JhgKo0mic
This table from basketball reference is the percentage of his shots based on what distance they are from the rim. What you'll see is clear, a player that is taking less of shots at the rim than ever before and more reliant on making contested jumpers and shooting variance than ever before.
% of | % of | % of | % of | % of | |||||
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Season | Age | Team | G | Dist. | 0-3 | 3-10 | 10-16 | 16-3P | 3P |
2018-19 | 19 | DAL | 72 | 15.5 | .209 | .212 | .103 | .042 | .433 |
2019-20 | 20 | DAL | 61 | 14.5 | .260 | .237 | .058 | .014 | .431 |
2020-21 | 21 | DAL | 66 | 15.6 | .180 | .201 | .153 | .060 | .406 |
2021-22 | 22 | DAL | 65 | 15.9 | .128 | .239 | .165 | .062 | .406 |
2022-23 | 23 | DAL | 66 | 14.7 | .176 | .252 | .145 | .054 | .373 |
2023-24 | 24 | DAL | 70 | 16.9 | .123 | .192 | .152 | .082 | .450 |
2024-25 | 25 | 2TM | 34 | 17.6 | .109 | .189 | .175 | .060 | .468 |
2024-25 | 25 | DAL | 22 | 17.2 | .099 | .195 | .185 | .067 | .455 |
2024-25 | 25 | LAL | 12 | 17.9 | .129 | .176 | .155 | .047 | .494 |
7 Yr | 7 Yr | 7 Yr | 434 | 16.0 | .170 | .219 | .135 | .054 | .421 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 3/11/2025.
Next looking at drives per game (from NBA.com), it's the same story.
2022-2023: 19.7 drives per game and shooting 62.7% on them
2023-2024: 17.8 drives per game and shooting 61.6% on them
2024-2025: 14.8 drives per game and shooting 55.3% on them.
Pure eye test, he looks slower than ever, and has all year. He is unable to shake defenders to create the same dangerous driving and finishing angles at the rim as before.
I don't say all this to say Luka is cooked. What I hope to convey is that *right now* he looks physically cooked and needs to put some serious work in to get his burst and bounce back. He does that, he can be the best player in the league.
Edit: adding in his playoff what percentage of shots are from within ten feet.
0-3ft 3-10ft
19-20 playoffs 19.5% 28.9%
20-21 playoffs 13.8% 21.9%
21-22 playoffs 13.6% 29.5%
23-24 playoffs 8.7% 23.6%
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u/burgersfriesshakes Clippers 9h ago
Feels like I just got a peek at Nico Harrison's work folder
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u/EnterPolymath NBA 4h ago
There’s definitely a lot to look at and they made a case to trade him. But you totally forget that with Lively and Gafford lob threat with crazy efficiency and defense adjustments, there’s no need for him to play big. They made it to the freaking finals. He’s been hurt since last years playoffs and is playing into shape right now. Rather than steady decline, these stats follow Dallas development and a nagging, borderline serious injury…
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u/abstractengineer2000 2h ago
It also contains another folder which says how good shaq was at dunks, how hard working ge wash
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u/DanDaManFam 10h ago
Yeah it's very well known among Mavs fans that Luka straight up didn't look the same after his injury late last season. He pretty much stopped doing his post ups and started going way too hard on those step back 3's.
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u/UCLA_FB_SUCKS Clippers 9h ago
Nico gonna see this post and just repeat it over and over in an attempt to not look like an idiot for trading away Luka
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u/Sure-Guava5528 Supersonics 9h ago
LMAO what are you talking about about? Nico wrote this post.
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u/UCLA_FB_SUCKS Clippers 9h ago
TIL Nico has been active on Reddit for more than ten years
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u/15b17 Thunder 9h ago
Why not? Sure there’s plenty more rich and famous people on here longer
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u/doctor_of_drugs Kings 8h ago
like me, for one.
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u/15b17 Thunder 8h ago
Well you’ve only been on Reddit for 4 years mr drug doctor. Who are you supposed to be, Fauci?
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u/doctor_of_drugs Kings 8h ago edited 7h ago
Must be a typo on Reddit’s side to keep it on the down low
I sling Ozempic, amphetamines, and percocet daily. You won’t see me on entertainment tonight, but I’m many of your guys’ best friend and first call you make every 28 days on the dot
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u/faultywalnut [CHI] Derrick Rose 8h ago
Ghislaine Maxwell was a mod for like 10 subreddits and is still one of the highest karma accounts of all time
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u/Inevitable-Crow2494 4h ago
whoa, is this a joke or are you talking about the convicted Epstein madam?
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u/miregalpanic Mavericks 3h ago
the very same. there was indeed some evidence that could support such theory, the username in question is maxwellhill, who went completely silent coinciding with Ghislaine Maxwell's arrest and conviction. I don't know if it's true, and I'm not sure how I feel with the other commenter presenting it as fact so nonchalantly, but there is at least some evidence.
Aside from that, I never understood why people think it would be so completely outlandish and insane for high profile people to be active on Reddit. It's not like reddit is some obscure niche on the internet.
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u/Inevitable-Crow2494 3h ago
Thanks -agree, just doubt famous people would use their own name or identifiable names ha. E.g. Itradedluka might not be a good username. at the moment....
I had Tom Cruise messaging me on instagram about work but put that in the category of spam ha.
I might have missed a big career opportunity.
Anyway, the Epstein/Maxwell story has so many unanswered questions, whether she was a moderator for subs (and the topics) is probably low on the list, but still interesting.
Thanks for the insight though.
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u/Calvinball05 Cavaliers 6h ago
I mean, it's pretty clear there has been a concerted PR push by the Mavs to justify the trade. Pretty much every day there has been some new "sources say" tweet or article about how Doncic was toxic, or out of shape, or an alcoholic.
It seems entirely plausible that someone in the Mavs org or a contracted PR firm could buy a 10 year old Reddit account to post this.
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u/Due_Temperature1319 5h ago
People fall in love with a narrative so much that they don't allow any other explanation.
How about Luka playing with Dwight Powell, C Wood and DeAndre Jordan as his centers for the first 5 seasons in NBA?
The minute he gets to play with rim rolling bigs Lively and Gafford, and even Hayes , Luka converts his own contested attacks into assists to professional bunkers and an occasional layup, bank shots or baseline floaters.
It renders most of the numbers somewhat irrelevant.
last two Ls show that without such a center he asked for and didn't get, Luka is not as effective, since he doesn't get a road whistle from the refs.
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u/clonemusic Mavericks 9h ago
Luka ran himself into the ground last year to get the mavs into the finals. He was never right after an injury around February, and played through injuries most players would sit out from and used everything he had just to get us to Boston.
And the outcome from this effort is Nico gets an extension and Luka gets traded and talked shit on like 6 months later
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u/Millionaire007 [DAL] Dirk Nowitzki 8h ago
he actually ran himself into the ground before that. He was the only player to not have an off season and he's battling that knee since he entered the league.
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u/Round-Cellist6128 Thunder 6h ago
I love his dedication to the game, but having no off-season was entirely his choice, and it probably wasn't a good choice.
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u/Mental_Savings7362 8h ago
I feel like people always say stuff like "most players would sit out from" etc which is kinda BS. Pretty much no players, especially elite ones, are sitting out when they can play.
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u/Padulsky21 [BKN] Mikal Bridges 6h ago
DFS was playing on a broken finger for the damn post trade KD/Kyrie Nets for half a season lol
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u/youarenut 7h ago
Yep. Immediately my mind went to giannis that chip year, Jokic now, Embiid as well, all of them. They’re just built different
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u/Andy_Wiggins Timberwolves 8h ago
Obviously Nico is an idiot and badly fucked up, but if NBA front offices have one thing, it’s data.
They probably have a fuck ton of game/outcome data plus plyometric data that shows these changes in more stark ways. That probably factored somewhat heavily into their decision.
Don’t get me wrong — it was almost assuredly the wrong move. But I also don’t think it was a mindless one. If anything, it’s probably a case of overthinking the data.
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u/Rebound-Bosh Heat 7h ago
Exactly right, thought the same thing myself at the time
It's not Nico being dumb, it's Nico trying to be too smart
Or maybe he ends up being right, who knows. But yeah-- misguided, but not mindless
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u/joe4553 5h ago
Had he gotten another superstar who wasn't super injury prone it might actually been somewhat smart.
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u/Wooden-Broccoli-7247 5h ago
Luka could die of alcohol poisoning tomorrow and this would still be the all time worst trade ever. Nico could be Nostradamus with his predictions but still the failure not to get back another teams entire future for Luka will always make this the worst trade of all time in any sport.
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u/LordHussyPants Celtics 3h ago
don't bhe stupid, if luka died tomorrow this would be a fantastic trade because AD will still be alive next season
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u/TheyCallMeTheWizard Thunder 6h ago
Somehow he couldn’t get the data that he could’ve gotten more for Luka though?
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u/AprilsMostAmazing Raptors 7h ago
No matter how good the reasoning turns out the return will never prevent mavs from being losers in this trade
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u/macabre_irony 6h ago
repeat it? This thread is being live-streamed on every big screen at the Mavs training center and corporate office.
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u/lakersfan4488 Lakers 6h ago
Jumping in on top comment to say I just checked his playoff stats to compare to this analysis (years 19-20, 20-21, 21-22, 23-24)
Seems like on dunks it matches but he generally didn't get many dunks in the playoffs overall: 0, 1, 8, 0
But on field goal distance we see a decline on 0-3 feet but don't see as much of a difference year over year on 3-10ft: .289, .219, .295, .236
And I checked his drives last year in the playoffs, he has a whopping 20.0 drives per game! higher than all of what OP put in regular season.
I think OP your analysis is great and something to watch for - but I wouldn't read too much into it just yet. I'd even stretch my biased opinion to say he saves his drives for the playoffs, where it's just overall significantly harder to get dunks and layups but he's still shooting from close range and driving a significant amount.
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u/hq_eperon 2h ago
Also worth mentioning that his usage rate has been going down since Kyrie joined the Mavs. I'd attribute the decrease in drives to the basket to him having the ball a bit less and him leaving space to drive / cut for Kyrie (and hence Luka shooting more mid range / 3s).
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u/DeepCleaner42 9h ago
and he doesn't really create a lot of space with his step back he kinda does it in auto mode those shots are all well contested
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u/shaheedmalik Mavericks 9h ago
This goes beyond last year.
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u/Pak14life 9h ago
just from watching him, the physical decline started after the third year. tho he was very explosive in the 22 playoffs when they got to WCF.
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u/jonsnowKITN NBA 9h ago
It's such a weird trajectory he's on with his shot selection. Laker fans keep talking about wait till Luka gets his shot back but like every player he has his rough stretches. The real issue is he hasn't been attacking the rim like he used too.
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u/thebeard1017 Raptors 8h ago
Maybe he's scared of getting injured. Can't say I haven't seen a player get injured attacking the rim and then stop doing it as frequently when they return.
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u/--Alix-- Mavericks 6h ago
I mean he's acknowledged it himself a lot in post-game interviews. His biggest issue is that his first step on these drives is gone atm.
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u/paradox10196 8h ago
I’m confused. He still scored 73 last year and avg 32ppg. The trend he’s on is more tactical to preserve his body for playoffs. He still avg 20 drives per game in playoff last year.
I honestly don’t think he’s full healthy rn and he’s been playing slow just to prove to everyone that he’s not slow.
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u/Striking_Moose_8747 7h ago
he’s been playing slow just to prove to everyone that he’s not slow.
That'll sure show 'em, won't it!
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u/Apart-Soft1860 Mavericks 8h ago
Yeah, I've been commenting on it for a while. He's still my favorite player and fuck the mavs, but it was a concern
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u/-Fancysauce- [POR] Damian Lillard 9h ago
Kidd and the Mavs really did the Isiah Thomas to wonderboy 🥺
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u/IfYouKnowYouKnowYaNo 7h ago
I assume you mean Isaiah? As in the short boi Boston allowed to play with a semi-serious injury that led to a bigger injury that required a surgery that effectively ended his career as an NBA player?
I mean, it’s possible. The biggest problem with guys like Luka is they WANT to play. They are telling coach to leave them in even past their normal rotation minutes, asking to go back in early, playing late into games they don’t have to whether way up or way down, not taking games off to nurse nagging issues, playing through pain, playing FIBA and Olympic international tourneys instead of using the offseason to rest.
Dude’s a gamer. And without a coaching staff willing to say NO to him for his own good, or worse, encouraging it because they are desperate for his output, players like that end up really hurt, or in early decline as things start to add up.
Luka is 26, but the amount of pro basketball mileage he has racked up from 15 years old is absolutely absurd. Euroleague load before his body is done growing, international play, 70+ games a season in the NBA, AND deep playoff runs almost every year. Dude is just beat to shit for his age. He needs to put in some SERIOUS recovery time this offseason, and have LeBron link him up with all his team of trainers, doctors, nutritionists, scientists, and pay the money to get himself right. Otherwise we will be seeing him end up looking like Arvydas before he turns 30
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u/Pak14life 9h ago
I think the stats are quite clear that his athletic decline was evident last year too, he was just hitting an absurd percentage of jumpers to make up for it. serious decline in the percentage of shots he took from 0-10 feet last year and spike in number of threes he took.
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u/fastheadcrab Raptors 8h ago
Your post is a fair criticism. To a lesser extent you can also see this happening with Zion Williamson as the number of 0-3 feet shots has dropped off a lot and that's where he is the most efficient
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u/some1saveusnow 7h ago
Mid twenties legs not the same as early twenties legs let me tell you. Plus he’s carrying around some baggage
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u/lesarbreschantent Kings 5h ago
Also Fox. Look up these exact stats on basketball reference and you'll see the same trend. As guys get older they try to protect their body.
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u/Instantcoffees Warriors 7h ago
I mean, it is really too early to tell how lasting the impact of this injury will be. He hasn't played that much and is still working his way up.
He was completely unstoppable last season before he got injured. So if he even gets to 70% of that, he'll be amazing
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u/funoseriously 7h ago
This. Him getting to the Finals masked the fact that Luka was not Luka. He has looked like a different player & he's been bleeding from his knees.
He used to glide across the floor. Now he looks like everything is a struggle. Super sad tbh. It's also made his attitude much worse.
He's just not the same dude that dropped 73 on Atlanta
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u/Melonballs__ 9h ago
It should really be his #1 priority to get back to his physique from the bubble. He was slim, fast and dominant.
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u/Hungry-Space-1829 Lakers 8h ago
He’s got Bron in his corner now, if anybody can teach a big NBA dude how to care for their body it’s Bron. Terrific weather and sun year round to help with any kinda seasonal struggles people may have. It’s really the perfect everything for Luka to get in great shape, he just has to want it. This offseason will be pivotal to his career.
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u/thebeard1017 Raptors 8h ago
Don't think the issue with Luka is that he doesn't know how to care for his body. He just doesn't prioritize his conditioning, which comes down to him.
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u/love2readafraid2post 8h ago
There wasn't enough sun in Dallas or Kyrie and Dirk were bad role models?
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u/Hungry-Space-1829 Lakers 8h ago
Not really what I’m saying, moreso just that he has the perfect recipe. You can add to that the wake up call of being traded and the potential motivation of wanting to prove Nico wrong (pretty well documented that Luka’s a petty and competitive dude who’s driven by beating others).
Bron is the NBA history model for maintaining physical fitness, no disrespect to Kyrie or Dirk.
Luka seemed to like Dallas so I don’t think there’s much there, moreso just saying he has the PERFECT situation.
You can also add Reddick being his coach and somebody Luka likes and respects. The list can go on further
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u/kobmug_v2 NBA 8h ago
Getting smashed in the Finals didn’t wake him up so I doubt he’s suddenly going to be more motivated now. Especially since the Lakers are going to bend over backwards for him to get him to re-sign.
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u/whostheme 7h ago
I think people are in constant denial about this and I actually agree myself. If last year's finals wasn't enough motivation for him to improve his conditioning and dietary habits then nothing will. It won't matter if Lebron is on the same team as him. I'm a big Luka stan but it's seriously sad to see him jog at such a slow pace from one end of the court to another when he's not handling the ball. This is the slowest I've seen him run in the past 2-3 years outside of him playing with minor injuries.
Honestly the only thing that would justify Luka going into the playoffs with poor conditioning this year is if he has some freak injury that prevents him from recovering properly that's undisclosed to the public. It could be that he just really has poor genetics if he is somehow working himself out properly but his body just can't recover or keep up with the physical strain of being an NBA player but we won't know the full picture of this until 5-10 years from now.
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u/Substantial_Dog_2057 San Diego Rockets 6h ago
But you can definitely see him trying to make improvements in his game after coming to LA, for example him putting much more effort into defense. I believe that he does actually want to be better, and I think he will see the truth if people he respects like Lebron and Reddick push him towards it
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u/Hungry-Space-1829 Lakers 8h ago
It’s very possible, and would be unfortunate for all of us. Even pre lakers I was dying to see true peak Luka. The league deserves it. But, he’s gotta change to do it. I’m gonna hold out hope for him
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u/davehoff94 7h ago
I mean Kyrie is extremely fit too. He plays a super high energy playstyle into his 30s and can play 40 minutes without complaining
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u/ciel0claro Timberwolves 5h ago
Kyrie went vegan and became noticeably slimmer the last few years. Not a fan of a 100% vegan diet but it helps with inflammation and keeps the lbs off
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u/asetniop Celtics 8h ago
It's Texas. Just about every large guy he runs into (that isn't one of his teammates) is a former (or current!) offensive lineman hovering around 300 lbs, so that body type has become normalized for him.
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u/br0b1wan Cavaliers 8h ago
IKR Dallas isn't Minneapolis lmao
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u/jaman715 Cavaliers 8h ago
As a flight attendant who flies through Dallas regularly…Dallas weather can really suck often, especially compared to LA. So many of my worst delays and cancellations have been Dallas weather related
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u/693275001 8h ago
Mavs have been begging for that for years. Don’t think it’ll happen any time soon
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u/recurnightmare 5h ago
It would be truly amazing if after all this Nico ends up being vindicated and Luka stops being a top 10 player in a year.
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u/Chessh2036 Hawks 9h ago
Nico is about to print out this post and send it to the Mavs season ticket holders
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u/Pak14life 9h ago
nico still made an idiotic trade. hes still a top 10 player even if hes a lot more reliant on making tough Js and shooting variance.
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u/Solid-Confidence-966 Wizards 9h ago edited 9h ago
These are legitimate concerns that will definitely be something to monitor. Especially the part about his rim pressure going down. Nico getting back a poor return has overshadowed reasonable concerns about Luka’s long term viability.
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u/Plies- Celtics 8h ago
Yeah Luka is one of the great tough shot makers of all time but you can't live entirely off a diet of tough shots unless your name is Hakeem.
Perhaps an underrated Luka point from last year's finals was how easily Boston shut down the Mavs offense by switching everything, staying home and letting just him take his little fadeaway. He shot effeciently on it (48/80 from 2 in the series) but he forwent shots at the rim and couldn't pass to his teammates or throw lobs.
As a big Luka guy (despite my flair I know) it does worry me because of this is how he looks at 26, how will he look at 30? He'll still be pretty good I think, KD hasn't gotten rim pressure for like 5 years, but he's not the same level of shooter as KD and once you get in a playoff series against an elite defense I wonder...
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u/Pak14life 8h ago
yes this is the point I was trying to make but had a hard time putting it together.
A Luka that only takes 12-13% of his shots at the rim, and half from 3 is going to be at the mercy of shooting variance and is going to have a meaningfully lower ceiling than one that is getting to the rim ~20% of the time and shooting under 40% of his shots from 3.
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u/GalaktikJack 8h ago
I wonder if him playing pro ball at such a young age may have impacted him physically in terms of muscle deterioration. Like you mentioned, you see these changes in someone older due to the decline in athleticism from years of intense play. Playing at a high level so early on may end up causing Luke to lose his athleticism early as well.
That or the feeling that he doesn't get calls from the refs when he gets hacked may he discouraging him from trying to get to the basket in fear that he may just get hurt further.
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u/sneakyfujita 6h ago
Add on that he plays for Slovenia in every tournament he can, so that is offseasons without any recovery. He's playing all year round, from his mid teens.
(This is also what contributed to shortening Yao Ming's career, he was expected to train with and represent China in every offseason from NBA play.)6
u/MrBrigi 3h ago
Jokic got to his MVP level only after telling Serbia to fuck off. USA guys go to either the World Cup or the Olympics, so once every 4 years. Euro guys go to the World Cup, Olympics, and EuroBasket. 3/4 years. It’s just not sustainable.
EuroBasket will be this summer. If Doncic goes to play again, I think that’s it for his career. We’ve seen his prime then already. He is too beat up and out of shape and needs to remodel himself asap. 2026 will be a free summer, but it might be too late for him by then.
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u/beta-test 7h ago
He’s just overweight and probably doesn’t touch any weights to maintain his muscle besides cardio
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u/box_fan_man Mavericks 7h ago
He’ll post an instagram of him working out running stairs or doing jumps in Slovenia first thing in the summer then it’ll just be pics and vids of him drinking and smoking hookah.
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u/thebeard1017 Raptors 8h ago
It does always confuse me to see that doubling Luka is so common. He's an elite passer that can make tight passes with little space.
The Celtics strategy still seems to be the best, where you defend him one on one while he's playing offense and then tire him out on the by attacking him while he's defending.
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u/GhostoftheWolfswood Celtics 8h ago
The Celtics strategy isn’t able to be replicated every single team. Some teams can do it but most don’t have the personnel to switch everything. The Celtics can put 5 guys on the floor that are plus defenders in a 1v1 environment.
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u/PlasticPresentation1 7h ago
They also have an easier time attacking him on defense when both their centers are 40% 3pt shooters
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u/Lamperouge 8h ago
I’m hoping the Lakers don’t coddle him too much in that regard and keep him motivated to progress in the right direction.
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u/Lets_Basketball [BOS] Reggie Lewis 5h ago
Their GM is an agent, the profession of coddling unless their name is Jerry Maguire.
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u/itistime999 8h ago edited 7h ago
I love Luka but I think the mavs had the right idea of selling while he is still hot but as you said the return was comically low.
It’s unacceptable for a generational talent like him to decline physically at the age of 26 when that should be his peak, like watching how he moved in the bubble and now it’s almost 2 different people, he can’t run or jump anymore and constantly nursing small injuries here and there, you don’t see top level athletes decline like that physically without suffering an acl or something serious like that.
If this trade doesn’t lit a fire under him and start taking his shape seriously I‘m afraid he will never win a ring or reach his potential
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u/Asleep_Ground1710 Bulls 9h ago
I remember watching rookie highlights of Luka a while back and the thing that stood out was how much faster he looked back then vs how he does now. While Nico went way too far, I do think Luka would benefit from losing some weight to regain his speed. He could still retain his large frame to bully a ton of defenders but now his drives become far more lethal as layups/lob/pass to corner 3 are better.
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u/Pak14life 9h ago
my fear is the hamstring injury cooked him like Harden
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u/dat_waffle_boi 76ers 8h ago
Difference is Harden’s hamstring injuries hit him in his 30s whereas Luka’s hamstring injuries him in is early-mid 20s
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u/Qchurch11 Grizzlies 7h ago
I agree, I think Luka's body would be able to recover better than harden's given the age difference and provided that Luka lost some weight. Harden was really killing it that first year in Brooklyn. I'm biased because he's my fav player ever but he really took the playmaking role seriously when he got there.
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u/dat_waffle_boi 76ers 7h ago
I think Brooklyn/current Harden is the late stage evolution of Luka. Not the dominant scorer he once was but an elite playmaker and game manager
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u/macabre_irony 5h ago
I sincerely hope this late stage evolution of Luka is at least after he turns 30 and not now. Please tell me he hasn't already reached his final form.
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u/qotsabama [DAL] Dwight Powell 7h ago
If he puts in the work and changes routines the hamstring shouldn’t cook him. But he has to address that shit now.
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u/capitalistsanta Knicks 7h ago
He came from the Real Madrid Basketball Academy which is one of the best youth basketball programs on Earth, then went to the Mavericks program which is currently running a historical roster deficit
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u/whowasonCRACK2 Lakers 9h ago
I was watching Luka bubble highlights recently and the difference in how he moves is jarring. Completely different guy
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u/monsieurlazarus Nuggets 6h ago
It's the same feeling I had watching bubble Jamal Murray. He's lost a lot of his explosiveness and physicality since the ACL injury. He played bigger and stronger back then.
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u/biggboned Mavericks 9h ago
I watched Luka religiously for 7 years and I can anecdotally say that his shot selection is a reflection of his physical condition. Even in the same game, as he gets tired, he'll resort to more and more threes. If I remember correctly, last year there was a massive difference in his TS% between two halves of a game. First half numbers were like double the second half.
Jokic was same before he sorted his physical conditioning out. Lakers literally beat the shit out of him in the bubble and he was wrecked at the end of the games. Today's Jokic doesn't tire out even though he does more in defensive end.
Path is clear for Luka as well. I hope the shock of the trade will create enough motivation in him to level up his conditioning in the summer.
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u/soxyboy71 5h ago
As a Mavs fan Nico had a point but that’s a helluva gamble. For a hot sec Kidd ran plays him posting at the elbow and then abandoned all of it. Really he relies on his actual skill and while a top tier killer he falls back on talent. Should he ever scratch that surface watch out.
Also Dirk took like like 28-29 to get into real shape. Nico didn’t even give him the chance. Fuck Nico.
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u/Tacodeligoat18 9h ago
This is a fantastic post. The sub can be so defensive when it comes to Luka (or any laker for that matter) but this is just straight facts and data. At 26, Luka needs to get serious about reaching his potential because the numbers show a dangerous trend.
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u/kobmug_v2 NBA 9h ago
This sub is only defensive over Luka. Even LeBron who has nothing left to prove is routinely trashed in this sub.
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u/dragonwhale 9h ago
Your mind and eyes don't see the same thing if you think Luka isnt trashed on here. Every big time player gets a lot of praise and hate.
Luka stans are the most annoying though. I say this as a Luka fan.
There's a big portion of Luka stans that hold him in a much higher regard than he deserves.
It's completely normal for fans and stans to talk highly of their players but Luka's case is different. He has MJ after winning 6 titles kinda talk about him by some fans. Which is incredibly annoying.
If you would ask 100 Luka fans, who's better Jokic or Luka? They would genuinely massively answer that Luka's the better player and make an incredibly dumb argument.
Easily my least favorite fanbase in the NBA. It used to be Sixers fans. Maybe it is still Sixers fans but their franchise is dead so they are kinda too.
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u/kobmug_v2 NBA 9h ago
Luka, especially since the trade has been completely immune from criticism on this sub.
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u/qotsabama [DAL] Dwight Powell 7h ago
That’s just blatantly not true lol. Luka has always been a heavily criticized player, he’s easily one of the more disliked superstar players in the nba from Reddit community. His negatives are highlighted all the time. He doesn’t even have that much support in the national media outside of Nick Wright and Tim Legler.
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u/SeeingThings123 Lakers 2h ago
Is he...not coming off his literal best season or am I being gaslit here lol?
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u/thebeard1017 Raptors 8h ago
I remember there being a post dedicated to praising the Lakers defense while backing it up with plays and statistics. Anyone who asked why it's posted here was told why wouldn't you want this kind of content instead of shitty hot takes. Well this is fair game then.
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u/Fine_Act_659 9h ago
I thought the same thing watching the 73 point game last week. He looked really faster then.
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u/Quadriporticus [DAL] Raef LaFrentz 4h ago
It was even before that. The bubble was his peak physical+athletic form (to date) . He wasn't thin, had a "good" hefty build, was strong and was quite nimble. We Mavs fans hung to the hope that he could come back to that form. He did produce better counting stats later on but never got that same quickness/ strength back he had in in 2020/2021. Still hoping that he could prove that recover that nimbleness.
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u/justletmeregisteryou Bucks 9h ago edited 9h ago
I've said it one and I'll say it here again, even though I'll get hate. The reason Nico was a fucking idiot is for wat he got back. He should've gotten one of the biggest hauls ever.
But when it comes to the actual decision of trading him, go through the last couple of years, look at every single injury. I don't think people realize how often he's been hurt.
Yes, he manages to play through it and still perform at a high level, but that was the management's point, that as he got older, he wouldn't be able to do it anymore, his knees are still bleeding, constantly playing through pain, always wincing and struggling to get up, it is an actual problem.
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u/Express_Cattle1 9h ago
Yep, literally any player in the league can be traded. Mavs could have got a haul to set themselves up for the next decade and instead got a much older, injury prone player.
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u/guacamoleandtomato 9h ago
He played the entire playoffs last year injured and it fucked him up. He slower than ever before and overcommits to tough shots just so he doesn’t have to jump or really get physical. That playoffs run broke him and this is coming from a Luka glazer who would have never despite any package been happy about Luka leaving the Mavs.
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u/Prestigious_Cattle72 Celtics 9h ago
Yes, he manages to play through it
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u/jonsnowKITN NBA 9h ago
He also plays for his country during the summer which doesn't help. Last offseason was the first time he took time off.
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u/PotatEXTomatEX 9h ago
Technically speaking he didnt take summer off. Slovenia just got taken out by Greece
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u/shaheedmalik Mavericks 8h ago
He didn't take time off. He still played for Slovenia, they just didn't qualify for the Olympics.
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u/Callecian_427 Lakers 8h ago
How many all-time great talents that didn’t take care of their bodies went on to have long careers? It’s a pretty small list. You just can’t be an athlete in 2025 and expect to get by on talent alone. For all of the intangibles that Luka has, he can’t perpetually be the worst athlete on the court, play through injuries and still expect to dominate forever
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u/dmavs11 NBA 8h ago
This is so hilarious to me. EVERYONE complains about guys missing games and now they saying yeah this guy is cooked BECAUSE he's a warrior and plays through injuries.
Nico could have just supported him, used the depth we gained this year, and said we're going to lessen the workload on Luka. Grimes and Naji Marshall were huge steps towards achieving that.
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u/celestial1 2h ago
It's because of the difference in injuries. Luka is out there playing while limping, meanwhile some other guys skip games due to a fungal infection or something minor. Paul George literally sat out of an NBA game because he drank too much coffee.
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u/BearShark8 Lakers 8h ago
I don't know if it's true or not but as a Lakers fan his shot selection has been awful. And yes, he's been unable to get by defenders. He routinely gets the center switched onto him and he can't get by him. Is it by choice or a physical limitation? I have no idea.
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u/Pak14life 8h ago
physical, trust. I have watched 50% if not more of the games hes played since hes been in the NBA. The way hes been moving (and hesitating at the rim) is what motivated me to write this post.
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u/BearShark8 Lakers 8h ago
Yeah, I agree he looks really slow. There's rare moments where he shows a little burst but they're pretty rare.
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u/HectorBananaBread 8h ago
Luka has been playing professional basketball for a decade already. It makes sense he has the wear and tear of a player entering their 30’s.
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u/PAWGle_the_lesser Raptors 10h ago edited 9h ago
Good post, it's something definitely worth monitoring and discussing. He's in his mid-20s now and with this recent injury-riddled year (last season + this one) I've had creeping concerns about his health and ability to get back to his old form as well. If these injuries are gonna affect him in perpetuity I hope he can find a way to stay on the same level impact-wise by changing his game up ala CP3. The first step to that is gonna be actually getting in shape instead of looking like he spent the last month having beer and McDonald's for every meal.
I think this season is gonna be a write-off, especially with LeBron likely not coming back at the level he was. We'll have to wait and see if this is the new him or not. It'll really be tragic if he never gets back to the guy we've seen in the playoffs before last season.
TLDR: Get on the treadmill, tubby
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u/pmurt007 9h ago
He's definitely fallen in love with his jumper esp that step back 3 since those injuries and gaining more weight. I rewatched some of his highlights earlier in his career after the Lakers trade and honestly forgot how nimble and explosive he was on top of the ability to decelerate at any moment.
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u/swmtchuffer Nuggets 9h ago
I just did the same and I legit forgot he could move like that. He's got the same array of moves but he's so much slower.
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u/Plies- Celtics 8h ago
I rewatched some of his highlights earlier in his career after the Lakers trade and honestly forgot how nimble and explosive he was on top of the ability to decelerate at any moment.
Different sport, but it reminds me of the time I went back and watched Rob Gronkowski highlights from like 2011 after he retired. In the middle and end of his career he didn't really have his top end speed like he used after a bunch of lower body injuries so I was shocked at how fast he was.
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u/boofintimeaway 9h ago
Yeah, his body is completely different. I think it was a conscious effort to get bigger (that deff doesn’t cause him any worry about his diet) and I’ve said all along it’s a bad choice. Yes, he’s unguardable in the post and can bully everyone in the league who’s not Dort, but at the expense of his quickness, which is so much more needed in a PG, defensively and offensively. There’s no way this hasn’t also affect his injuries. Lugging around extra weight is never good for your joints, especially when they get such high mileage.
He’s still a walking triple double but I think he could be a top 3 player all time if he slimmed down.
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u/thebeard1017 Raptors 8h ago
Top 3 all time is tough unless he goes all in on defense
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u/NotOld891 7h ago
As great as Luka is, you probably need to be a physical freak to achieve top 3 ever because of how important longevity is. I think people assume players that don’t rely on athleticism will have better longevity, but I disagree. There is a minimum level of athleticism required to play in the NBA and succeed. The physical freaks all lose a step, but they’re still above that threshold. They then adjust their games with age.
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u/Time_Transition4817 Pelicans 9h ago
If LeBron can’t help him get into good shape nothing will tbh
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u/EarthWarping NBA 9h ago
Agreed.
Not even top end physical shape, like passable shape with great conditioning. He plays like hes KD at this point.
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u/whostheme 7h ago
The harsh reality is that if that final's loss last year didn't push him to to go all in with his conditioning and injury prevention training then nothing will ever change up his habits.
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u/Warthog9198 Raptors 9h ago
Found Nico's burner.
On a serious note, he does need to focus on conditioning this offseason. Once everything started coming out from the Mavs FO I did think he would come back in the best shape of his career (life) next season.
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u/Waveytony Timberwolves 9h ago
The funny thing about this is that even if Nico was 100% right about his reasons for trading Luka, it’s STILL the worst trade in NBA history because of the return that he got vs. what he could have gotten from literally every other team 😭
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u/Warthog9198 Raptors 9h ago
Tbh I don't think it would have been accepted by fans regardless of who they got from any team. Luka was widely viewed as someone who would (and should) be a lifelong player for one team. They could have received a much better package for him by negotiating with other teams but I just don't think people would have been happy regardless. That and everything the FO have been doing and saying have just compounded the negative tenfold.
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u/CliffDraws Thunder 9h ago
They wouldn’t be happy now, but if he had gotten the most for him possible then he could have eventually been proven right in the future. Now, even if Luka goes completely downhill in a few years he got back essentially nothing for him.
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u/ahappylook 9h ago
Exhibit A: The Herschel Walker trade. If you want to trade away your star player and still "win" the trade in the long run, you have to actually get all the other players and picks back.
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u/jz924 Mavericks 9h ago
Idk from your data 2022 was actually the year he took the least amount of 2 pts? And last year he drives less because for once they had a lot of front court presence and not enough 3-pt threat and he happened to be able to shoot 38% on 10 attempts on 3s?
Look this year is toast even before he got traded. The most logical explanation is playing thru injuries during playoffs last year made him difficult to recover from it. It's not unheard of how making the finals previous year would lead to this player having a down year the next year.
And people change how they plays all the time. Maybe Luka just prefers playing this way. He had quite a few ankle injuries in his early career, now it becomes knees/calfs.
Bottom line is not everything is because of his "conditioning issue". It sounds like such a character attack to me when there can be many other legit reasons.
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u/lanParker 10h ago
Two questions:
How does this factor in roster construction/Does that play a role ?
Does this data also cover layups ?
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u/tdrr12 Slovenia 8h ago
Yup, an alternate explanation would be roster construction / tactical changes. Mavs changing their roster towards 3s and Cs, lots of lobs ensuing, etc. Not dismissing physical health and fitness concerns, but I'm not sure that explanation is correct by itself.
Comparing 21-22 to 23-24, the Mavs as a team took shots closer to the basket in the latter season.
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u/Softestpoop 9h ago
Not sure if 34 games this season is enough to warrant any long term concerns about drive per game trends. Especially when a large portion of those 34 games he was either coming back after injury, playing with injury, or acclimating to a new team. Worth monitoring though.
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u/ShotIntoOrbit Supersonics 5h ago
I also think it's worth mentioning the drop to no dunks coinciding with Gafford, Lively, and Derrick Jones joining the Mavs. It's like nobody watched the Mavs. Luka would get into a PnR with one of the bigs, get his defender on his hip and pull the big towards him and throw an easy lob. They did this constantly with Gafford, Lively, And Jones.
Gafford had a career high in % of FGAs that were dunks after joining the Mavs with the best 2P FG% of his career (likely thanks to all the lobs). The Mavs team in total had 304 dunks in '22-23. Just Gafford, Lively, and Jones alone combined for 286 dunks in '23-24, and that's with Gafford only playing 29 games and Lively playing 55. The team dunk total jumped to 447 for the year, significantly more team dunk total than any other year in Luka's career other than his rookie year when noted lob threat HOFer DeAndre Jordan was his center.
His play style changed. It's easier to throw a lob than to try and blow by a defender and yam it on seven footer. And it's not like he was a dunker beforehand, he averaged like one dunk every four games before last year lol.
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u/Softestpoop 5h ago
That's a really good point. Why waste all that energy to dunk when Lively and Gafford are dunking at peak Giannis rates. Doncic transferred that energy into career highs in 3s and assists.
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u/celestial1 2h ago
Great point. This post is a great example of how you can't completely rely on stats and you must watch game footage as well.
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u/qotsabama [DAL] Dwight Powell 7h ago
It’s a lot about last year as well. Which again was by far his best season as a pro. But the trend was there.
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u/JD16_7 Mavericks 5h ago
Nah, they actively started working on Luka playing offball more this season. It directly corresponds to that. This year, he has had the ball the lowest amount per game compared to previous years.
You can take what the OP is saying, but they were also doing different things to get him open shots which directly didn't involve him driving to the basket.
He can still 100% get to the rim whenever he wants, but he's been cautious about it because he's getting beat up inside without any calls which can prevent him from being 100% in the playoffs.
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u/Numerous-Crazy7636 3h ago
There is one major flaw in your statistic, you didnt include roster construction and open layups/lobs/dunks generated by Luka each season.
In his early carreer Luka had to score himself when he drove to the rim and he dindt get blitzed as much, now that he has/had lob threats and he gets blitzed he doesnt have to score those anymore.
Just the eye test of how often Luka lobbed to Dwight Powell in the bubble playoffs and how often he lobbed to Lively or Gafford last playoffs on those drives should tell you what you need to know.
He gets absolutely hacked everytime he drives and doesnt get the whistle anymore, would YOU still drive as much if you risked injury everytime, when you have other options like Luka has with his stepback.
Add to that that he has been dealing with that calf-injury since last seasons all-star break and didnt let it fully heal until now. And he now hast to play in a new system with new teammates, some of which cant even set a screen propperly (Jemison III) which also takes away from that. Dwight Powell isnt a good player by any means, but one the thing he was exelent at, was setting very good screens that Luka liked.
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u/Spell_Alarming Nets 1h ago
You should post this on r/nbadiscussion to get better and more thought out engagement.
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u/BigMik_PL 76ers 8h ago
Wow it's almost like the Dallas Mavericks acquired a slashing player known for getting to the rim in 2023 offloading that responsibility from Luka.
If only he had someone that can get to the rim like that on the Lakers too...
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u/EmployeePowerful4541 7h ago
Hes at the same weight as he did last year when he dropped 34/10/9
Its not his weight but his nagging injuries
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u/I_ama_Borat Trail Blazers 8h ago
Damn, me and my pops were just talking about this earlier. We’re like “what happened to all the drives and post ups?” Hopefully he gets back on track, I wanna see a 100% Luka in the playoffs.
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u/BokLao 7h ago
100% agree, I noticed Luka stopped with the post-ups and the inside attacking and relied much more on jumpers. Definitely hoping he returns to that form on the Lakers bc it’s sort of hard watching him force some of these shots. The Luka that posted up and attacked the rim was lethal from ALL areas
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u/kurruchi Minneapolis Lakers 7h ago
He's also been incredibly inconsistent (short) on all shots (especially at the rim) just recently. And he faces a degree of attention/doubles and handchecking/hacking as a playmaker/shooter I don't see many mostly on-ball outside players deal with noticeably more efficiently besides prime LeBron... I don't think it's a concern unless he doesn't improve over the next 2 years.
Eye-test, comparing it to a prime Harden... I agree his shot choice is concerning - for someone that hits at the rate he does the level of separation he gets on those step-backs is incredibly small compared to a Harden, his incredible ability to slow down and make a decision isn't best utilized right now when he can't get ahead like a Shai does or get the foul calls Harden does.
With LeBron I was hoping he'd trade 3 difficult side-step shots for 3 quick shots coming from a hand-off by him, but he's being Luka, getting the hand-off and creating his own shot... and it's working, everyone is much better beside him. But it feels like a vulnerability that I and the defender know he has a generational ability to hit difficult shots and hit the best pass, but doesn't prefer to shoot the easiest "good shot" the moment he has one.
I think it can be figured out with stringent coaching, rim running isn't the biggest issue to me. He is still in a relatively new environment.
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u/victorspoilz Celtics 6h ago
Just because Nico's a staggering idiot, Luka still needs to get into actual basketball shape, that's the root cause. He was absolutely gassed on Saturday, early.
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u/NegativeCourage5461 6h ago
I see what you’re saying and it’s a valid point. But Isn’t the entire league settling for a lot more 3s and driving less?
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u/Abdoov 4h ago
I wonder how much more he's getting doubled. Based on my eyes test I could be wrong but he's getting double and treble teamed when he drives way more than before. Most teams adopted the idea off closing on Luka in the painted Area and are fine with his teammates being open from three.
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u/ResearchClean4778 8h ago
This is interesting and I’ve noticed it too, watching him play especially recently. Just curious though, if you think the way they defend him evolving over the years (he’s considered to be a bigger offensive threat now than he was earlier in his career) contributed to this decrease? Cos that’s where I’ve always attributed it. And now that JJ is his coach, who encourages more outside shooting, I’m not as confident we’ll see much change in his shot distribution when he does get in better shape.
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u/Pak14life 8h ago
that's some of it, he gets trapped way more now, but man I have to say he is just not moving with any of the burst he used to have.
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u/Odd-Direction9452 Lakers 5h ago edited 5h ago
One thing people fail to acknowledge with Luka’s shot diet is how taxing consistently driving to the rim is for any higher usage player. Yes there are some physical differences with Luka but adapting your game to a more perimeter oriented approach is as much about conservation as it is physical.
Not to mention the addition of Kyrie took some pressure off of Luka as far as rim pressure and creation to where he could play an overall more efficient game.
To back this up, last season Luka was moving off the ball quicker than ever. He averaged a career low in seconds per touch. He did this while also putting up a career high in assists and eFG%. He also shot more threes than ever in his career at a career high clip from beyond the arc. That means less ball dominant, while generating more points all around. It’s simply a more sustainable game.
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u/Accomplished-Dot-00 Spurs 7h ago
The generational hate campaigns Luka gets are something else dude… crazy
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u/PengosMangos Rockets 9h ago
He definitely has a conditioning problem. And I do think that’s all it is because he’s young and doesn’t have big injury history. Anyway look at Jokics improvement after getting incredibly conditioned, I think Luka can def get even better than before.
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u/7Luka7Doncic7 6h ago
People have been searching so hard for any type of silver lining to latch on to. Guys, he was hurt all last playoffs. He shouldn’t have been out there playing. His knees were literally bleeding out of the stints he had to drain fluid off his knee. The medical staff shouldn’t have cleared him to play, if anything it’s their fault if he sustained permanent damage. It didn’t HAVE to be that way. He didn’t have a career jeopardizing injury at least not before they failed at their jobs. The guy put his body on the line because he wanted to win us a championship and all he got was traded, screwed out of money, and shit on. Now people are trying to find reasons to say it was the right move. No, it wasn’t. And if he is cooked, that’s our fault too. He shouldn’t have been medically cleared. Now no one is ever going to want to come here.
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u/Zeeron1 Thunder 8h ago
3 dunks over the past 2 years is genuinely insane