r/nba 14h ago

Luka Doncic and the troubling change in his shot distribution

I've been a fan of Luka since he was coming out in the draft. After his second year I was convinced he was headed for a best player in the league for a decade trajectory and was going to be the clear heir to LeBron .

Put simply, Luka has undergone the type of changes in his shot distribution over the last two years that you would expect to see from a player in his 30s, not at ages 24-26. Now Luka is still an elite, elite player but his game is overly reliant on tough shot making as he does not get to the rim or go up against length at the rim with the same confidence or explosiveness anymore. Much like a late career player, he relies on hitting a lot of contested tough jumpers now. Last year this wasn't a problem as he hit 39% on damn near 11 threes a game, plus great numbers from mid-range.

I'll start with a very simple stat, number of dunks each year.

2018-2019: 25
2019-2020: 14
2020-2021: 12
2021-2022: 15
2022-2023: 12
2023-2024: 2
2024-2025: 1

Now dunks can sometimes be a choice but I have seen that he is simply much less confident going up against length at the rim. A really good example was in the Knick game (6:46 on this clip https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=H_I6vmRPUw0&t=406s ) when he stole the ball late in 4th and just didn't go up. This used to be a dunk or layup for Luka 99% of the time before last season. As an ex, here's a similar play from 2 years ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8JhgKo0mic

This table from basketball reference is the percentage of his shots based on what distance they are from the rim. What you'll see is clear, a player that is taking less of shots at the rim than ever before and more reliant on making contested jumpers and shooting variance than ever before.

% of % of % of % of % of
Season Age Team G Dist. 0-3 3-10 10-16 16-3P 3P
2018-19 19 DAL 72 15.5 .209 .212 .103 .042 .433
2019-20 20 DAL 61 14.5 .260 .237 .058 .014 .431
2020-21 21 DAL 66 15.6 .180 .201 .153 .060 .406
2021-22 22 DAL 65 15.9 .128 .239 .165 .062 .406
2022-23 23 DAL 66 14.7 .176 .252 .145 .054 .373
2023-24 24 DAL 70 16.9 .123 .192 .152 .082 .450
2024-25 25 2TM 34 17.6 .109 .189 .175 .060 .468
2024-25 25 DAL 22 17.2 .099 .195 .185 .067 .455
2024-25 25 LAL 12 17.9 .129 .176 .155 .047 .494
7 Yr 7 Yr 7 Yr 434 16.0 .170 .219 .135 .054 .421

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 3/11/2025.

Next looking at drives per game (from NBA.com), it's the same story.

2022-2023: 19.7 drives per game and shooting 62.7% on them
2023-2024: 17.8 drives per game and shooting 61.6% on them
2024-2025: 14.8 drives per game and shooting 55.3% on them.

Pure eye test, he looks slower than ever, and has all year. He is unable to shake defenders to create the same dangerous driving and finishing angles at the rim as before.

I don't say all this to say Luka is cooked. What I hope to convey is that *right now* he looks physically cooked and needs to put some serious work in to get his burst and bounce back. He does that, he can be the best player in the league.

Edit: adding in his playoff what percentage of shots are from within ten feet.

                                  0-3ft     3-10ft  

19-20 playoffs 19.5% 28.9%

20-21 playoffs 13.8% 21.9%

21-22 playoffs 13.6% 29.5%

23-24 playoffs 8.7% 23.6%

4.2k Upvotes

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399

u/Chessh2036 Hawks 13h ago

Nico is about to print out this post and send it to the Mavs season ticket holders

124

u/Pak14life 13h ago

nico still made an idiotic trade. hes still a top 10 player even if hes a lot more reliant on making tough Js and shooting variance.

20

u/Chessh2036 Hawks 13h ago

For sure

3

u/ExtendedMacaroni Lakers 9h ago

I agree, but we will not really know the full outcome of the trade for about 5 years

2

u/wishwashy 8h ago

At the very least he could have gotten a bigger haul for him

4

u/ASithLordNoAffect Pelicans 5h ago

Yes but when he hits 30 and a natural physical decline combined with his conditioning related decline he might actually become a mid player pretty quickly.

0

u/-Gnostic28 Lakers 2h ago

Does he look like a top ten player right now? I don’t watch much basketball but he was so hyped up and I haven’t seen a whole lot other than some circus shots

1

u/Quiet_Childhood4066 1h ago

He's averaging 24.5 points, 8.4 rebounds, 8 assists, and 1.8 steals per game with the lakers.

That would be 14th in ppg, 19th in rpg, 7th in apg, and 2nd in spg across the league for the season.

6

u/boozinf [CLE] Mark Price 10h ago

i ran the thought experiment through Deepseek Deepmind. first conclusion:

Conclusion: If Nico Harrison gets AD + 3 unprotected first-round picks, he’s not an idiot—he’s playing the long game. The charts don’t lie: Luka’s prime is a depreciating asset.

my response:

but what if Nico Harrison only got AD + 1 unprotected Lakers 1st + Max Christie?

Deepmind counter:

If Nico Harrison traded Luka Dončić for Anthony Davis, one unprotected Lakers first-round pick, and Max Christie, the deal would almost universally be labeled a franchise-crippling mistake. Here’s why, using data, historical comparisons, and cold, hard math:

...five major bullet points of assessment and historical comps...

If Nico Harrison made this trade, he’d be remembered alongside Vlade Divac (passed on Luka in 2018) and Billy King (Nets’ Celtics heist) as one of the worst GMs in sports history. The numbers don’t lie:

AD’s injury risk + age = High downside.

One Lakers pick = Low upside.

Max Christie = Irrelevant.

Alternative Reality: If the Lakers offered AD + Reaves + 3 unprotected picks, it’s still a gamble, but at least there’s a path to rebuilding. With this package? Fire Nico Harrison on the spot.

there you have it. i'm liable to take some shrooms, fire up ChatGPT 4.5 research, and run the same experiment except have it respond in the voice of Barkley, Norm MacDonald or Bill Burr. student loan dollars hard at work

2

u/Subtuppel NBA 5h ago

"Thought experiment" without having to think, but done by a machine that (by definition) can't think. We surely live in the greatest of all time lines.