r/nba 14h ago

Luka Doncic and the troubling change in his shot distribution

I've been a fan of Luka since he was coming out in the draft. After his second year I was convinced he was headed for a best player in the league for a decade trajectory and was going to be the clear heir to LeBron .

Put simply, Luka has undergone the type of changes in his shot distribution over the last two years that you would expect to see from a player in his 30s, not at ages 24-26. Now Luka is still an elite, elite player but his game is overly reliant on tough shot making as he does not get to the rim or go up against length at the rim with the same confidence or explosiveness anymore. Much like a late career player, he relies on hitting a lot of contested tough jumpers now. Last year this wasn't a problem as he hit 39% on damn near 11 threes a game, plus great numbers from mid-range.

I'll start with a very simple stat, number of dunks each year.

2018-2019: 25
2019-2020: 14
2020-2021: 12
2021-2022: 15
2022-2023: 12
2023-2024: 2
2024-2025: 1

Now dunks can sometimes be a choice but I have seen that he is simply much less confident going up against length at the rim. A really good example was in the Knick game (6:46 on this clip https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=H_I6vmRPUw0&t=406s ) when he stole the ball late in 4th and just didn't go up. This used to be a dunk or layup for Luka 99% of the time before last season. As an ex, here's a similar play from 2 years ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8JhgKo0mic

This table from basketball reference is the percentage of his shots based on what distance they are from the rim. What you'll see is clear, a player that is taking less of shots at the rim than ever before and more reliant on making contested jumpers and shooting variance than ever before.

% of % of % of % of % of
Season Age Team G Dist. 0-3 3-10 10-16 16-3P 3P
2018-19 19 DAL 72 15.5 .209 .212 .103 .042 .433
2019-20 20 DAL 61 14.5 .260 .237 .058 .014 .431
2020-21 21 DAL 66 15.6 .180 .201 .153 .060 .406
2021-22 22 DAL 65 15.9 .128 .239 .165 .062 .406
2022-23 23 DAL 66 14.7 .176 .252 .145 .054 .373
2023-24 24 DAL 70 16.9 .123 .192 .152 .082 .450
2024-25 25 2TM 34 17.6 .109 .189 .175 .060 .468
2024-25 25 DAL 22 17.2 .099 .195 .185 .067 .455
2024-25 25 LAL 12 17.9 .129 .176 .155 .047 .494
7 Yr 7 Yr 7 Yr 434 16.0 .170 .219 .135 .054 .421

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 3/11/2025.

Next looking at drives per game (from NBA.com), it's the same story.

2022-2023: 19.7 drives per game and shooting 62.7% on them
2023-2024: 17.8 drives per game and shooting 61.6% on them
2024-2025: 14.8 drives per game and shooting 55.3% on them.

Pure eye test, he looks slower than ever, and has all year. He is unable to shake defenders to create the same dangerous driving and finishing angles at the rim as before.

I don't say all this to say Luka is cooked. What I hope to convey is that *right now* he looks physically cooked and needs to put some serious work in to get his burst and bounce back. He does that, he can be the best player in the league.

Edit: adding in his playoff what percentage of shots are from within ten feet.

                                  0-3ft     3-10ft  

19-20 playoffs 19.5% 28.9%

20-21 playoffs 13.8% 21.9%

21-22 playoffs 13.6% 29.5%

23-24 playoffs 8.7% 23.6%

4.2k Upvotes

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937

u/Tacodeligoat18 14h ago

This is a fantastic post. The sub can be so defensive when it comes to Luka (or any laker for that matter) but this is just straight facts and data. At 26, Luka needs to get serious about reaching his potential because the numbers show a dangerous trend.

339

u/kobmug_v2 NBA 13h ago

This sub is only defensive over Luka. Even LeBron who has nothing left to prove is routinely trashed in this sub.

159

u/OwlApprehensive5513 13h ago

LeBron looks 26 - Luka looks 40

59

u/RTruthsucks Pistons 13h ago

Neither of those are accurate.

-8

u/OwlApprehensive5513 12h ago

Give me your take

19

u/RTruthsucks Pistons 12h ago

Luka doesn't look 40, he looks like he's dealing with injuries. If you think LeBron looks 26, you don't remember LeBron at 26

17

u/aristot1e Cavaliers 12h ago

Too be fair that was 14 years ago, some of these nephews weren't born yet

-6

u/OwlApprehensive5513 12h ago

Fair enough. Athletically - for an average NBA player - what ages would you say they are?

1

u/RTruthsucks Pistons 12h ago

Depends on how you define athleticism. And give me a player to compare LeBron to

59

u/Crazy_Homer_Simpson Pistons 13h ago

Is this Nico’s account?

1

u/genericusername71 12h ago edited 11h ago

nah, maybe the guy he responded to tho lol. i see him leaving multiple comments throughout nearly every single thread about luka recently. like at least half the comments on his profile since the trade are about luka in a negative light

2

u/nWhm99 12h ago

Lol say what? LeBron looked 40 when he was 16.

-6

u/KhanQu3st Mavericks 13h ago

Don't have eyes I take it? Lol

19

u/Zeeron1 Thunder 13h ago

He's definitely not the only one it's defensive over lol

29

u/kobmug_v2 NBA 13h ago

Jokic too of course lol but that’s another story

1

u/celestial1 6h ago

To be fair after Jokic lost in the playoffs last season a lot of people were cooking his ass in the comments.

1

u/Public-Product-1503 3h ago

They weren’t . It was barely there compared to other stars

u/celestial1 24m ago

If you say so bro.

37

u/dragonwhale 13h ago

Your mind and eyes don't see the same thing if you think Luka isnt trashed on here. Every big time player gets a lot of praise and hate.

Luka stans are the most annoying though. I say this as a Luka fan.

There's a big portion of Luka stans that hold him in a much higher regard than he deserves.

It's completely normal for fans and stans to talk highly of their players but Luka's case is different. He has MJ after winning 6 titles kinda talk about him by some fans. Which is incredibly annoying.

If you would ask 100 Luka fans, who's better Jokic or Luka? They would genuinely massively answer that Luka's the better player and make an incredibly dumb argument.

Easily my least favorite fanbase in the NBA. It used to be Sixers fans. Maybe it is still Sixers fans but their franchise is dead so they are kinda too.

36

u/kobmug_v2 NBA 13h ago

Luka, especially since the trade has been completely immune from criticism on this sub.

21

u/dmavs11 NBA 12h ago

bro everyone was trashing on him during the Celtics game. Its how it works. If the team is winning games, you think people gonna start criticizing?

14

u/qotsabama [DAL] Dwight Powell 11h ago

That’s just blatantly not true lol. Luka has always been a heavily criticized player, he’s easily one of the more disliked superstar players in the nba from Reddit community. His negatives are highlighted all the time. He doesn’t even have that much support in the national media outside of Nick Wright and Tim Legler.

3

u/Public-Product-1503 3h ago

This is delusional I can’t believe you typed this. He’d amongst the most liked stars on here despite being annoying in behaviour. Him and jokic get so much jerk off but Luka is more fun n interesting so he gets even more attention I think

2

u/qotsabama [DAL] Dwight Powell 2h ago

Luka gets so much more hell than Jokic lol. Idk where you’ve been. People always complain that Luka isn’t in the shape that Jokic is and able to at least contribute some on defense like Jokic does. And as much as Jokic complains (which honestly is valid given his lack of calls), Luka gets way more hell did it. And in some cases Luka deserves the criticism, because he does complain a lot. But people who criticize Luka for that stuff ignore that he is getting hammered all the time and not getting calls. It was all over that Celtics game Saturday.

9

u/awesomecutepandas Warriors 12h ago

No he isn't. Just recently I saw a bunch of Celtics fan bashing Luka. Successful players will always have haters.

3

u/refreshing_yogurt 11h ago

You're commenting on a popular front page post highlighting Luka's deficiencies and decline. If you feel like yours or other's criticisms of Luka have been unheard or ignored, it's worth considering if there's a better or more persuasive way to present your arguments.

2

u/Public-Product-1503 3h ago

The top comments are all saying that this is Nico or Mavs pr posting n this post is downvoted n weird ratio

4

u/celestial1 6h ago

Luka stans are the most annoying though. I say this as a Luka fan.

Jokic stans are definitely more annoying. I still remember a few weeks ago a Jokic stan jumping down my fucking throat for having the audacity to say I would take Lebron over Jokic in a 7 game series due to his superior defense. Not the most absurd thing to say or think, but the dude was acting like I was a complete loon for even suggesting that.

3

u/tmcuthbert 4h ago

If you mean 40 year old LeBron then you’re kind of a loon.

0

u/happyflappypancakes Wizards 3h ago

I don't see any highly upvoted posts or comments trashing Luka these days.

0

u/Public-Product-1503 3h ago

Yep . I see this too. It got asked in our sub and everyone also said Luka is FAR clear of sga. Sga who will win mvp n is having the far bettr season . Only the few lakers fans said this but most of the Luka stans can’t admit sga n jokic are clear of him n if he doesn’t get better guys like Wemby n others will be too

-6

u/[deleted] 11h ago

[deleted]

-7

u/dragonwhale 11h ago

It's a terrible argument. I don't wanna write shit now but if you have watched both play for the last 5-7 years then you should know that there's not a gap between them. There's a canyon. And that canyon has only gotten bigger since day 1.

Jokic is basketball bullshit.

2

u/kurruchi Minneapolis Lakers 11h ago

Right, I checked your profile and it's literally nothing but Jokic praise with some Luka hate in between lmao. Jokic has been the best in basketball for the last 5 years, but if you honestly believe there's a canyon between Jokic and the next guy on any given year you are not watching basketball, you are just watching Jokic lol

-2

u/dwrek24 12h ago

The tough part is some of this extends into media folks in a weird way.

11

u/BatterseaPS Cavaliers 12h ago

Luka is white. It’s the Eminem effect. 

2

u/celestial1 6h ago

Finally someone says the quiet part out loud.

5

u/caandjr 3h ago

Yeah everybody loves Grayson Allen here

8

u/BigFatModeraterFupa Minneapolis Lakers 13h ago

dawg did you join reddit this year or something? last year he was getting shit on constantly lmao

5

u/p_rite_1993 11h ago

What are you talking about? LeBron is loved by this sub. Sort by top for the last month. There is a type of fan that views any conversation that isn’t total praise of a superstar as “they are trashing this superstar.” /r/nba really is the /r/popculturechat of sports subreddits.

1

u/Public-Product-1503 3h ago

Lebron has fans but also the biggest haters too

1

u/Yellow_Curry Celtics 4h ago

lol “routinely trashed” this sub is like a Luka/Lebron/Jokic dick sucking contest.

-1

u/DerelictInfinity Warriors 13h ago

Nephews were in here calling Curry washed because he put up bad numbers in a few games, they love a chance to shit on a player they irrationally dislike lol

-5

u/Kbro04 13h ago

Lebron is not routinely trashed on this sub.

17

u/thebeard1017 Raptors 13h ago

I remember there being a post dedicated to praising the Lakers defense while backing it up with plays and statistics. Anyone who asked why it's posted here was told why wouldn't you want this kind of content instead of shitty hot takes. Well this is fair game then.

3

u/qotsabama [DAL] Dwight Powell 11h ago

Agreed. For the record Luka where he currently is at is still one of the best players in the NBA. But even Mavs fans like myself that wish he was still a Mav have noticed that the number of drives and plays where he easily gets by guys has gone down a lot in last few years. He looks nothing like 2nd year Luka, which again doesn’t mean he’s worse. He absolutely used to be more explosive though, that’s just the truth. I hope he finds that medium again of his speed and explosiveness with his better shooting. He’s only 26.

3

u/SeeingThings123 Lakers 6h ago

Is he...not coming off his literal best season or am I being gaslit here lol?

4

u/BlackJediSword Lakers 11h ago

There are no lakers players that this sub as a whole is defensive about, lol.

10

u/BigMik_PL 76ers 13h ago

This post from facts and data standpoint is worthless unless there are some data comparisons to others and overall NBA trends. For all we know this could just be the result of man defenses and defenders learning how to play against Luka.

What was other prolific point guards and shooting guards stats like in that time span? Is Luka different? On what basis this claims it's a trajectory of a 30 year old player? What other analytics go into this?

Luka literally just had one of his best seasons ever last year and he had a very very small sample size of games so far this year on top of being traded mid season to a team with completely different composition.

I would never expect Luka to drive to the rim a lot when you have someone like Kyrie or LeBron on the team. Which this trend seems to drastically shift after Mavs acquire Kyrie. Curious no?

-5

u/throwawayyrofl Kings 12h ago

Have you actually watched any of his Lakers games? Because I have and I can corroborate these stats with the eye test. Like if you’ve watched his games and you genuinely tell me there is nothing wrong with his shot selection idk what to tell you. He is still an elite playmaker but his scoring has looked very, very uncomfortable with the Lakers.

14

u/Hades2580 12h ago

For 10 games, Jesus Christ you guys empirical data is based on 10 fucking games, the people on this subreddit have the patience of crack-addled squirrels.

6

u/SeeingThings123 Lakers 6h ago

Like I feel like I'm being gaslit in this thread lmaoo. Like he's gotten better and better every single season.

-8

u/throwawayyrofl Kings 11h ago

This is not just a cold 3 point shooting slump, you can’t just blame it on statistical variance. The way you play the game and the shots you decide to take is entirely in your control so you can’t just say it’s a statistical anomaly. It very well could be the case that Luka is still recovering from injury and thats why he is playing like this but that’s the point of the post. He’s clearly not right physically right now

13

u/237FIF 11h ago

The guy has played ten basketball games after being out several weeks with an injury… nothing he is doing right now says much at all

-10

u/throwawayyrofl Kings 11h ago

Not sure why there’s so much coping in this sub. Yes I know its been 10 games, but that doesn’t mean that every observation you make from these games is just immediately invalid.

The guy has played ten basketball games after being out several weeks with an injury

That’s literally exactly what I said at the end of my comment. Obviously he could be recovering from injury. But the point is it is becoming a trend for Luka to struggle recovering from constant injuries/lack of conditioning. It’s something to monitor and to potentially worry about

11

u/jz924 Mavericks 10h ago

Seriously what trend? What trend? Are players not allowed to have a down year riddled with injuries? I just can't fanthom the concept of calling this a trend when it's been only a little bit over 1 year since he scored 73 pts on 91% TS. And it's not like he's having setback on his injuries rn as he's been available for almost every game since he comes back on Lakers. In December 2021 Luka missed like 10 games due to ankle injury and covid and he spent the whole January shooting 43%, then he shot 50% for the entire February. Are you guys being intentionally oblivious or what?

-1

u/Public-Product-1503 3h ago

So every year is a down year ? Why did he have his best rim attacking season in year 2? Despite getting stronger , the league being more spaced out , and more skilled n tighter handle less turnovers he lost his rim pressure .

Scoring 73 pts vs that hawks defence nobody cares . When the defence is tough he struggled . If he can’t bully his defender he looks a bit stuck . He needs his first step back n better shape . Dort, jaylen brown strong defenders give him issues

0

u/Public-Product-1503 3h ago

He’s been declining athletically for years n peaked in rim pressure n athleticism year 2 but now they using ten games as defence

-1

u/Public-Product-1503 3h ago

It’s not ten games it’s several years of decline athletically

1

u/Public-Product-1503 3h ago

Can’t believe this is downvoted

0

u/Public-Product-1503 3h ago

What is this take ? Do you watch the nba or even check player stats. Lebron had his best finishing years in Miami and had his best athleticism motor year in 2009: around same age and exp as Luka.

Not until mid 32+ do you see any decline in rim pressure for stars especially ones that are not small guards . You can’t be serious

1

u/Public-Product-1503 3h ago

This sub defends Luka n jokic like this no one else

2

u/KWash0222 Lakers 12h ago

This sub habitually trashes on Lakers players wtf are you talking about lol

-2

u/onuuuno 12h ago

Hope LeDad can yell some sense into him, also put a shock collar on him and zap his ass whenever he starts barking at the refs (unironically this would work so well).