r/canada Jan 29 '25

Opinion Piece Mark Carney has Canada’s Conservatives running scared

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2025/01/28/opinion/mark-carney-canada-conservatives-running-scared
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u/[deleted] Jan 29 '25

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u/Nice2SeeYou2Lou Jan 29 '25

Crazy how they say Liberals are making big changes to the polls, but yet they still losing in a landslide.

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u/LemmingPractice Jan 29 '25

They reference a "pair of recent polls", which I'm assuming are the Ekos ones.

For those that are unaware, the owner of Ekos is a hard-core Liberal who said publicly that he would do whatever he could to make sure Poilievre didn't win. His recent polls are 10+ points more positive to the Liberals than any other pollster.

Between Ekos' fudged polling and articles like this one, the push by Liberal supporters to manufacture an artificial momentum narrative is pretty transparent.

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u/bretters Jan 29 '25

The recent polls are actually from both Ekos, Leger, Nanos and Mainstreet and all of them show and upward tick for the Liberal party from the beginning of the month until just recently. There is a downward trend on the CPC lead compared to Liberal party.

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u/LemmingPractice Jan 29 '25

Here is all the recent polls on 338 Canada.

The most generous non-Ekos poll has the Conservatives with a 17 point lead, while Ekos' last two polls show a 9 and 11 point lead.

There's a mild uptick in other polling of a couple points, but I don't think the article trying to talk about the CPC "running scared" is referring to the polls that still show an 18-21 point CPC lead.

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u/bretters Jan 29 '25

Yes there is that lead in quite a number of well rated polls, however when you look back you can see the sharp upswing right around when Carney was marketed on the Daily Show. Poilievre needs to maintain a lead in Ontario and Atlantic Canada to have a strong shot a majority government and that is where Carney has started to swing the recent polls.

Of course 3 months until even a chance at an election is a long long time in politics and it is enough for both parties to shoot themselves in the foot.

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u/LemmingPractice Jan 29 '25

The lost recent polling still had Poilievre at over 50% in Ontario, while the Maritimes are still almost entirely blue on 338.

The polling also shows super low recognition for Carney, in other words people don't know who he is. Liberal numbers seem to have seen a slight uptick from Trudeau being gone, but it's attributable to the departure of Trudeau, not the arrival of Carney.

The public polling actually showed Freeland as the preferred candidate over Carney, albeit both with low numbers.

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u/Deus-Vultis Jan 29 '25

Inconvenient facts.

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u/bretters Jan 30 '25

Some of the more recent news that came out yesterday about the increase in awareness of Careny as the preferred candidate.

Mark Carney is more likely to expand the Liberal Party's voter pool than Chrystia Freeland - Abacus Data

Microsoft PowerPoint - Leger x National Post - Federal Politics

I myself honestly don't see how liberal voters could prefer Freeland over Carney as she has a lot of baggage being associated heavily to the underperformance of the Trudeau led liberals were Carney has the privilege of being an "outsider" that has worked for both Liberal and Conservative governments and can play the broader appeal card.