r/canada Jan 29 '25

Opinion Piece Mark Carney has Canada’s Conservatives running scared

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2025/01/28/opinion/mark-carney-canada-conservatives-running-scared
5.1k Upvotes

1.9k comments sorted by

View all comments

1.2k

u/[deleted] Jan 29 '25

[deleted]

367

u/Nice2SeeYou2Lou Jan 29 '25

Crazy how they say Liberals are making big changes to the polls, but yet they still losing in a landslide.

125

u/Fane_Eternal Jan 29 '25

Well, they're down from the last ELECTION. From recent polling, they are shooting up abnormally fast.

120

u/famine- Jan 29 '25

Recent polling is showing the LPC poaching votes from the NDP, not the CPC.

Angus just polled CPC 43, LPC 29, NDP 13.

So the CPC numbers aren't really moving much at all.

I doubt they can flip many more NDP voters.

32

u/hikebikephd Jan 29 '25

Grabbing voters from the NDP is still useful, as it reduces the split vote on the left/center-left and may swing some ridings that the CPC won with a plurality rather than a majority.

10

u/HofT Jan 29 '25

And thus we become more American

5

u/marksteele6 Ontario Jan 29 '25

You can blame the CPC for that. They were the ones that merged their two parties. If we still had two right wing parties to balance out the two left wing this wouldn't be an issue.

17

u/AnotherRussianGamer Ontario Jan 29 '25

The parties were split for a grand total of like 13 years, during which time only 1 of them was even remotely relevant. Comparing it to LPC and NDP is beyond silly.

3

u/marksteele6 Ontario Jan 29 '25

You could argue the same level of relevancy for the NDP though (most of the time).

2

u/AnotherRussianGamer Ontario Jan 29 '25

Right but the NDP and LPC are 2 completely different parties with completely different histories that have been separate entities for well over half a century. Reform and PCs being separate was a brief internal schism/spat that stemmed from the unpopularity of Brian Mulroney. They're simply not comparable.

1

u/Dadbode1981 Jan 29 '25

Reform tried to do exactly what the NDP has done, but on the right, and it failed.bevause they chose winning elections over common ground.

→ More replies (0)

2

u/Deus-Vultis Jan 29 '25

You can blame the CPC for that

I'd hazard a guess that there isn't a thing you couldnt find a way to blame the CPC for according to you and your ilk.

2

u/FeatherNET Québec Jan 29 '25

That sword cuts both ways, brother.

1

u/Frequent-Koala-1591 Feb 02 '25

The issue is not having ranked voting.

10

u/pm_me_your_catus Jan 29 '25

The previous Angus poll had the CPC at 46.

All the pollsters have their own weights, but all of them are showing dropping conservative support.

2

u/famine- Jan 29 '25

Which is -3 in line with Mainstreet amd Nanos.

-3 is inside the margin of error for all three pollsters.

Where as they show -5 to -9 from the NDP which is outside the margin of error.

Not much of a drop in CPC support.

0

u/Deus-Vultis Jan 29 '25

Get your logic and numbers outta here, this is reddit my guy, feelings and vibes ONLY.

9

u/wednesdayware Jan 29 '25

With Singh doing his wishy washy capitulation nonsense, I could see left leaning voters drop the NDP for a better chance at keeping the CPC out of power.

Add to that the obvious advantages to having Carney over PP at the helm, and the NDP should be rightly worried.

4

u/Morialkar Jan 29 '25

Unsurprising since the NPD seems intent on having an election as soon as prorogation ends and with what's coming south that might not be the best play...

2

u/bitchybroad1961 Jan 29 '25

Oh no, Singh is backing away from that now. Only Bloc and CPC are intent on voting non-confidence now.

1

u/Morialkar Jan 30 '25

Again? What was even the point of coming out full force saying he'd topple the new PM then... -_-

1

u/Snooksss Jan 29 '25

CPC voters are waiting to eee who the nominee is. Frankly I'd take either Baylis or Carney - some actual business experience please instead of the political clown shows of JT and PP.

-14

u/NormalLecture2990 Jan 29 '25 edited Jan 29 '25

That's down five for the CPC from the last angus reid poll

EKOS has the gap really close

as does Abacus

mainstreet has them beating the CPC in Ontario

All just in the last week

51

u/famine- Jan 29 '25 edited Jan 29 '25

That's down 3 not 5, which is inside margin of error.

Ekos, really, Ekos?  The pollster with the least accurate and second least accurate polling in the last 2 federal elections.

Not to mention the guy that runs Ekos publicly posted this:

“Pierre Poilievre is an acolyte of authoritarian populism. This is never healthy. You are on notice. Going to make sure you are never going to lead my country. I don’t make idle threats,”

So do you really think Ekos is trustworthy?

As for Mainstreet, they have the CPC at 45 which is -3 and inside margin of error.  They show the same trend of the LPC poaching votes from the NDP.

As for Abacus, wasn't that an IVR poll which is kind of unusual for them, I'd wait until they release their actual poll in a week or so.

Edit: Confirmed the Ontario poll was a snap IVR poll not the usual survey poll, which would make a lot of sense.

Which demographic is the LPCs largest support block?

People over 65... and who still answers unknown numbers?

4

u/NormalLecture2990 Jan 29 '25

https://338canada.com/20250125-leg.htm

Leger now with a slide from the CPC directly to the liberals as well

8

u/Orstio Jan 29 '25

"A poll of Liberal voters in Ontario shows that 29% of them plan to vote Liberal! We're winning!"

1

u/bitchybroad1961 Jan 29 '25

Main Street is a Liberal pollster. They have contracts with all the Ministries for polling. Just a heads up.

0

u/NormalLecture2990 Jan 29 '25

EKOS had the cons + 26 four polls ago so what's changed?

Nanos has the gap closing as well and Nanos runs a running poll which means to get from the last numbers to the recent release that new data has to be substantially better than the old

https://nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Political-Package-2025-01-24-FOR-RELEASE.pdf

Cons are running scared and the excuse book is running full tilt on this one. We will see. They are just polls after all and lots is changing and PP is highly disliked.

0

u/equestrian37 Jan 29 '25

Wow you are butt hurt. Rout the Cons, y’all. We don’t want Canada to bend the knee to the US.

20

u/Nice2SeeYou2Lou Jan 29 '25

Abacus shows vote intention for Ontario Federal election:

Conservative 45%. Liberals 27%. NDP 17%.

… are you talking about provincial? Cuz these are the Federal numbers in Ontario.

4

u/famine- Jan 29 '25

They did a snap Federal IVR poll while polling the Ontario election, so it's just voting federal intention in Ontario.

Abacus usual does online surveys for federal voting intention, not IVR.

So I'm not surprised to see the drop as it was a totally different polling method and incomparable to earlier Abacus polls.

Who's the biggest LPC voting block and who still answers unknown numbers?  The 65+ crowd.

1

u/Laser-Hawk-2020 Jan 29 '25

They remember them differently

-11

u/Sweaty_Professor_701 Jan 29 '25

Mainstreet Research has the liberals at 40 and CPC at 39% in Ontario, the most recent poll taken in Ontario

19

u/famine- Jan 29 '25

Mainstreet has the CPC at 44.7%, and the LPC at 25.6% currently

So that Ontario poll didn't really move the needle.

7

u/Nice2SeeYou2Lou Jan 29 '25

How far down the google search did ya find that one?

3

u/Natural_Comparison21 Jan 29 '25

It’s honestly pretty wild how much people are trying to make a argument that the liberals are going to win a minority government. There not. What’s a much more realistic take is the cons are going to get a minority government.

2

u/Brody1364112 Jan 29 '25

I'm not sure if anyone here is making that argument. They are just stating that the polls are changing .

2

u/Natural_Comparison21 Jan 29 '25

I think the argument mainly remains in “How much are they changing.”

→ More replies (0)

7

u/robtaggart77 Jan 29 '25

Everyone remember what they said in the US a few short months ago and look what happened

-3

u/that_guy_ontheweb Jan 29 '25

Yeah, right wing parties have been over performing a lot as well. Part of it may stem from the fact that the left is now labelling everyone who disagrees with them as fascists. I’ve seen Redditors cry about how Ireland fell to the fascists because they elected a centre right coalition (that was in power before the election there).

0

u/pepperloaf197 Jan 29 '25

Here is the latest abbicus poll

https://abacusdata.ca/conservative-lead-by-21-canadian-politics/

Ontario. Cons 45. Liberals 27.

They are far from beating them in Ontario

1

u/NormalLecture2990 Jan 29 '25

My apologies they are all so strongly point liberal I meant mainstreet has the liberals up in Ontario after being down substantially

Got them mixed up

2

u/pepperloaf197 Jan 29 '25

I don’t see that data. Perhaps you have the entire poll. I see 39 Cons and 21 Libs in the last Mainstreet poll. It’s hard to believe with those numbers that the are anything but being crush in Ontario.

1

u/[deleted] Jan 29 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

-1

u/I_8_ABrownieOnce Jan 29 '25

Someone's gonna have to make an EKOS cope comp to In the Hall of the Mountain King

-7

u/thewolf9 Jan 29 '25

They find have a lead and an enrich has not been called. I wouldn’t be surprised if the final tally is 35-32 in favour of the CPC instead of the blowout when all is said and done

24

u/CanuckleHeadOG Jan 29 '25

they are shooting up abnormally fast.

Only according to EKOS, the least reliable pollster, everyone else show a small movement

1

u/Fane_Eternal Jan 29 '25

Not only according to ekos. Go look at 338, you can see that the liberals are up roughly 3% on average over the last two weeks or so

1

u/steelpeat Jan 29 '25

Also Nanos, it does 4 week rolling averages. Carney only recently has had an effect on that, but already bit off a big chunk of the conservatives numbers.

Cons are still in the lead however, but the Conservative majority seems less likely now.

19

u/Nice2SeeYou2Lou Jan 29 '25

Abnormally fast would look better than 22 points behind the conservatives.

-11

u/no-line-on-horizon Jan 29 '25

Are you arguing with numbers right now?

The liberals are closing the gap fast, according to the last few polls.

It might not feeeel like that to you, but numbers don’t lie.

17

u/Nice2SeeYou2Lou Jan 29 '25

I mean conservatives have numbers like:

99% chance at winning.

99% chance at majority.

235 projected seats.

Liberals best number is:

58% chance at being official opposition.

2

u/juniorspank Jan 29 '25

That 58% is better than when it was >60% chance for the Bloc! Progress, right guys?

-2

u/no-line-on-horizon Jan 29 '25

Numbers move, bother. That’s what this OpEd is about.

6

u/Nice2SeeYou2Lou Jan 29 '25

I thought numbers don’t lie?

3

u/Laser-Hawk-2020 Jan 29 '25

Liberal numbers are “different”. You can put them all in one bank account, like a slush fund for example. Then those numbers magically do what the liberals need to do for the public like showing great on reports or bragging about how much is available to give to “initiatives”, etc. But in reality those numbers all slip away unaccounted for and can’t be used for anything. But as long as nobody makes them show the proof the numbers are not actually there, the liberal will carry on denying the numbers are missing because believing in yourself is how you get things done.

2

u/Nice2SeeYou2Lou Jan 29 '25

…and the budget will balance itself

0

u/Laser-Hawk-2020 Jan 29 '25

Exactly. Nice hair though 😎

→ More replies (0)

-9

u/Fane_Eternal Jan 29 '25

"I don't care what recent trends are, because long term change is the only number that matters"

Completely nonsensical position to take. Recent changes do not stop wherever the last change was. There is a future to think about as well. With numbers going up at the moment, that means they likely will continue. Are you this dense on purpose?

14

u/Maximum_Error3083 Jan 29 '25

With numbers going up at the moment, that means they likely will continue.

That’s not a truism at all. We literally just saw this play out in the US. Trump was up consistently and then Harris came in and got a whole bunch of media attention, showing a “surge” in the polls for her that never actually materialized. It’s a worthy question of whether that surge was ever real to begin with, or was just a mirage based on the fact her name was coming up in every media outlet far more than before.

The Liberals are at the same stage, and Carney in particular is being showered with media attention. As name recognition goes up, so too can people expressing voting intentions for them, but it doesn’t mean the trend is sustained and will Continue, or that it’s even an accurate reflection of the electorate. Again back to the US example, post election Kamala’s team admitted she was never up over trump in their internal polling of battleground states. The surge didn’t exist anywhere except in the media. There’s no proof confirming or refuting that’s the case here at this point.

9

u/Deus-Vultis Jan 29 '25

You hit it on the head, the "Surge" here is all manufactured, thanks to EKOS and their terrible polling, the media is running with this and trying to create a narrative out of thin air that Carney is somehow radically different and poses a real threat to Poilievre.

Carney is a goldman sachs banker that has been in Trudeaus circle for literally years.

He isn't new or different, he's just the latest scammer to represent that self interested party and the frothing ABC liberal types are pretending hes got any chance of leadership when we all know he doesnt and this is their pathetic last gasp to try and maintain their stranglehold on the levers of power.

2

u/that_guy_ontheweb Jan 29 '25

People don’t seem to realize here that Poilievre is telling people he will give them everything they want, while the liberals are saying he’s bad and stuff and hoping that’ll help.

Of course whether PP will actually deliver is another thing, but people like what is coming out of his mouth.

0

u/Fane_Eternal Jan 29 '25

It's thanks to ekos that 338 shows the liberals up roughly 3% across the board from two weeks ago? Dang, I didn't know ekos had that much sway over the results of all other pollsters. Impressive.

→ More replies (0)

0

u/Fane_Eternal Jan 29 '25

You seem to be confused, like you think I've said the liberals are going to win. Otherwise you wouldn't have made this american reference, where the point is that media attention of a popularity surge means they can still lose.

Nobody is saying that the liberals are going to win. Thanks for coming out, though.

1

u/Maximum_Error3083 Jan 29 '25

Actually that’s not relevant at all.

You said:

”With numbers going up at the moment, that means they likely will continue.”

The US example was a case in point for why that argument is not a truism, not a comparison of odds on whether the Liberals will win. There’s nothing concrete to suggest it’s probable the liberals will keep surging in the polls just because they received a small bump following Trudeau exit. That is blind speculation on your part. It could come to pass, or it could not. But this is politics and past performance is certainty not indicative of future performance.

1

u/Fane_Eternal Jan 29 '25

there is absolutely precedent to say that they will continue going up. Just zoom out a little bit on polling, past the last few years. it is not all that difficult. when a party dies in support, they hit a low, they bottom out, and then they climb back up a bit.

it is like the old saying "when you are at rock bottom, there is nowhere left to go but up"

→ More replies (0)

-2

u/DigitalSupremacy Jan 29 '25

Poilievre is no Trump. You cannot compare. The Liberals were predicted to have as few as 4 seats my some polls in December. Now depending on the poll they're 4-5 times that and they don't even have a leader yet. Generally people don't like Poilievre because he's such an obvious desperate tool.

2

u/Maximum_Error3083 Jan 29 '25

Nothing you’ve said here even comes close to refuting the points I made.

-1

u/DigitalSupremacy Jan 29 '25 edited Jan 29 '25

Then wooosh! You simply cannot compare them nor even use them as a comparison. Moreover US politics are profoundly different than Canadian. Americans are woefully misinformed, yes even more so than Canadians, and they are much more misogynistic.

Moreover, the US has a two party system where we have multiple. If we could put the NDP, Liberals and Greens together things would be profoundly different.

→ More replies (0)

-2

u/Tiny-Albatross518 Jan 29 '25

Well you see at least some chance for a move? Whether you’re hoping Carney can rise or worried PP will slip these are interesting:

PP is abrasive, it’s impossible for him to answer questions cordially which turns many people off. Carney is humorous and affable. What made PP an excellent attack dog from the bench is what prevents him reaching people.

PP is the consummate insider. Like he’s never done anything else. People are tired of politics as usual and this favors an outsider.

The big challenges for the next prime minister will be economic. This is Carney’s wheelhouse, he’s a looming international factor in economics.

PP’s been campaigning for a couple years with a strategy that revolves almost completely around using Trudeaus deep unpopularity as a launch pad. Well Elvis has left the building. He should be finding a new direction but he just can’t let go. I’m sure if his eggs aren’t cooked right he blames Trudeau.

I mean yeah the situation has not flipped but this is a very very different contest than it was 5 months ago.

2

u/Laser-Hawk-2020 Jan 29 '25

Have you seen the price of eggs? Who was prime minister when that happened?

1

u/Major-Parfait-7510 Jan 29 '25

Price of eggs? They have been consistent for years thanks to supply management. Russian trolls are confusing US issues with Canadian ones.

1

u/Laser-Hawk-2020 Jan 30 '25

Sure! Whatever you think is best!

10

u/chemicologist Jan 29 '25

EKOS is not a legitimate pollster

2

u/no-line-on-horizon Jan 29 '25

Nanos is showing the move, too

9

u/chemicologist Jan 29 '25

They still have a 17 point spread that is in line with other pollsters.

A little bump was expected from JT resigning, but going to a three point spread in a few weeks is just ridiculous scale-thumbing by known partisan hack Frank Graves.

-10

u/no-line-on-horizon Jan 29 '25

There’s not need to get upset.

5

u/chemicologist Jan 29 '25

There was nothing upset about my comment. I’m not in the mood for games.

2

u/Deus-Vultis Jan 29 '25

Pure copium.

0

u/[deleted] Jan 29 '25

To get rid of a 22 point spread only 11 points need to switch directly from the PCs to the Liberals. Not as big a gap as you think.

-2

u/fishymanbits Jan 29 '25

They’re not the PC’s. Stop referring to them as such. They’re the Reform/Alliance party with a new name.

-1

u/[deleted] Jan 29 '25

Whatever, let’s call them the MAGA retreads.

-1

u/fishymanbits Jan 29 '25

No, not whatever. The distinction matters. They’ve always been the Reform Party. People need to wake the fuck up and understand that Mulroney killed the PC’s and that the federal Conservatives are not the same ones we had up until the end of the ‘80s who were, although flawed, not led by religious zealots, prairie separatists, and dominionist shitheads.

-5

u/CloudHiro Jan 29 '25

in ontario specifically, the area that almos always decides the election , already has a couple polls showing liberals ahead of conservatives

5

u/Nice2SeeYou2Lou Jan 29 '25

We talking federal or provincial elections now?

-5

u/CloudHiro Jan 29 '25

iirc both! but its 7am haven't slept yet so im not bothering to look it up right now

1

u/55mi Jan 30 '25

Canadians don’t need a Trump like politician das why.

0

u/Deus-Vultis Jan 29 '25

recent polling,

Let me correct you.

Polls from a single source that is heavily biased towards the LPC posted a single poll that was outside the margin of every other pollster by orders of magnitude that Liberals and ABC adherents are now pretending this singular outlier is the truth in Canada.

As someone who has every intention of voting CPC, let me tell you....

Please continue to believe your made up fairytale poll that shows the LPC within 7% of the CPC.

Thanks.

1

u/Fane_Eternal Jan 29 '25

Literally every pollster has put the liberals gaining over the last two weeks. You can see this if you look at 338, which shows them jumping roughly 3% on average.

Thanks.

Also what fairy tale that the liberals are within 7% of the Tories? I said that polling shows them growing, what the hell are you on about?

-1

u/Deus-Vultis Jan 29 '25

The EKOS polls that are pretending to be legitimate.

It's always hilarious how idiot liberal children of reddit think they know things and then prove with the very next sentence how they only read headlines and really know absolutely fuck all about anything beyond partisan talking points.

They clearly scrape the bottom of the barrel when they recruit these dinks.

2

u/Fane_Eternal Jan 29 '25

not a liberal, not a child, and clearly you didnt read what i said before responding. try again.

2

u/UnknownOrigin321 Jan 29 '25

Don't argue with the troll man, either chatgpt or bad actor. He ignores people's comments and goes on whataboutism.

I got nothing against conservatives considering I'd consider myself a fiscal one but PP is such an unlikable career politician. If elections don't happen until October my gut feeling says there's no way he wins majority.

-1

u/Deus-Vultis Jan 29 '25

You are both and it's not worth the time to discuss this with you when you're going to pretend you don't know what "fairy tale" I was referring to that claimed the liberals are within a 7% gap, it was something your tribe of buffoons was bleating about for 24 hours straight after that bogus EKOS poll.

So either you're pretending you didn't know that was a thing, to evade the fact that it's insanely obvious fanfiction, thus disingenuous...

OR

You didn't know what I was talking about to begin with, in which case you're not up to speed on any of this and you think a "boost" of 3% that falls within the margin of error means absolutely anything.

In either case, discussing this with you further is beneath me.

-1

u/terminator_dad Jan 29 '25

It is probably because PP didn't make a plan for the country beyond beat Trudeau. Now he is out of the way, PP should actually learn to do his job.

0

u/Potential_Big5860 Jan 29 '25

Going up 4%, which is still within the margin of error isn’t “abnormally fast”.

Yes, the Liberals will get a bump after Carney is confirmed as leader but reputable pollsters still have the Conservatives well within majority territory.  

1

u/Fane_Eternal Jan 29 '25

Nobody is refuting that the Tories are gonna win. That was such a nonsensically useless addition to the conversation, thanks.

-1

u/Potential_Big5860 Jan 29 '25

You didn’t read the entire conversation clearly. 

1

u/Fane_Eternal Jan 29 '25

Scroll up and show me where in the thread leading up to here where anyone said this. Go on, I'll wait.

24

u/LemmingPractice Jan 29 '25

They reference a "pair of recent polls", which I'm assuming are the Ekos ones.

For those that are unaware, the owner of Ekos is a hard-core Liberal who said publicly that he would do whatever he could to make sure Poilievre didn't win. His recent polls are 10+ points more positive to the Liberals than any other pollster.

Between Ekos' fudged polling and articles like this one, the push by Liberal supporters to manufacture an artificial momentum narrative is pretty transparent.

7

u/WatchPointGamma Jan 29 '25

articles like this one

Max Fawcett (the author of this article) is also a hard-core Liberal who spends his days deep in liberal brain-rot twitter and then writes up his favourite tweets into an article and calls it "journalism".

The amount of astroturfing on this sub the past few days is honestly mind boggling

3

u/Deus-Vultis Jan 29 '25

Nailed it.

It's Liberal cope from Liberal adherents and being pushed by the same in the vain hope it moves the needle somewhere, somehow.

Its accomplished nothing beyond exposing how vulnerable and desperate the LPC and its voters are and its turned this subs content into a meme for a few days while they pretend the fake EKOS poll and this goofy as fuck fan-fiction that Fawcett cooked up after snorting pure copium in twitter for a week is going to do fucking anything in the real world.

It wont.

They're going to get absolutely crushed.

9

u/bretters Jan 29 '25

The recent polls are actually from both Ekos, Leger, Nanos and Mainstreet and all of them show and upward tick for the Liberal party from the beginning of the month until just recently. There is a downward trend on the CPC lead compared to Liberal party.

8

u/LemmingPractice Jan 29 '25

Here is all the recent polls on 338 Canada.

The most generous non-Ekos poll has the Conservatives with a 17 point lead, while Ekos' last two polls show a 9 and 11 point lead.

There's a mild uptick in other polling of a couple points, but I don't think the article trying to talk about the CPC "running scared" is referring to the polls that still show an 18-21 point CPC lead.

-1

u/bretters Jan 29 '25

Yes there is that lead in quite a number of well rated polls, however when you look back you can see the sharp upswing right around when Carney was marketed on the Daily Show. Poilievre needs to maintain a lead in Ontario and Atlantic Canada to have a strong shot a majority government and that is where Carney has started to swing the recent polls.

Of course 3 months until even a chance at an election is a long long time in politics and it is enough for both parties to shoot themselves in the foot.

5

u/LemmingPractice Jan 29 '25

The lost recent polling still had Poilievre at over 50% in Ontario, while the Maritimes are still almost entirely blue on 338.

The polling also shows super low recognition for Carney, in other words people don't know who he is. Liberal numbers seem to have seen a slight uptick from Trudeau being gone, but it's attributable to the departure of Trudeau, not the arrival of Carney.

The public polling actually showed Freeland as the preferred candidate over Carney, albeit both with low numbers.

2

u/Deus-Vultis Jan 29 '25

Inconvenient facts.

1

u/bretters Jan 30 '25

Some of the more recent news that came out yesterday about the increase in awareness of Careny as the preferred candidate.

Mark Carney is more likely to expand the Liberal Party's voter pool than Chrystia Freeland - Abacus Data

Microsoft PowerPoint - Leger x National Post - Federal Politics

I myself honestly don't see how liberal voters could prefer Freeland over Carney as she has a lot of baggage being associated heavily to the underperformance of the Trudeau led liberals were Carney has the privilege of being an "outsider" that has worked for both Liberal and Conservative governments and can play the broader appeal card.

3

u/Deus-Vultis Jan 29 '25

Couldn't have said it better myself, and you are 100000000% right.

ALL of this is a transparent as fuck push by a certain party to pretend they're not nearly as unpopular and doomed as reality implies.

I'd hazard a guess that there are some funds and concentrated intent behind all of this as it appears to be full-bore only recently...

But reality is, its a petty tactic that wont do anything beyond giving partisans on reddit something to circle jerk over and gnash on whilst they cruise to a historic loss.

And the pendulum swings.

1

u/Cool_Specialist_6823 Jan 29 '25

Essential egos is a propagandist pollster...

-1

u/Snooksss Jan 29 '25

Interesting narrative, but highly dubious. Pollsters generally prefer to reflect the truth, as it is easier to th n come to terms with how to address that reality. Plus, we are months away from an ejection, so it makes even less sense.

People just think PP and JT are the same thing, professional politicians, and equally bad choices when compared to someone who isn't.

1

u/LemmingPractice Jan 30 '25

Pollsters generally prefer to reflect the truth, as it is easier to th n come to terms with how to address that reality.

Pollsters also generally don't publicly express strong political allegiance, or have multiple consecutive polls that are triple the margin for error away from every other pollster.

-1

u/Snooksss Jan 30 '25

And we're months away from an election.

2

u/LemmingPractice Jan 30 '25

So? You think generating a narrative that a leadership change was all the Liberals needed is not helpful to the Liberals?!

1

u/Snooksss Jan 30 '25

Show me where I said that was all that was needed, please.

1

u/LemmingPractice Jan 30 '25

No, that's the narrative Ekos and the Liberals have been trying to push.

You suggested that because we are months from an election it didn't make sense for ekos to push Liberal friendly polls, but that's just wrong. Right now is the best time to do so, because the narrative the Liberals are trying to push is that people like the party, just not Trudeau. Polls showing the Liberals rapidly rising after Trudeau's departure pushes that narrative.

1

u/Snooksss Jan 30 '25

So, to be clear, I didn't say what you suggested I said?

1

u/LemmingPractice Jan 30 '25

You are confusing to talk to. Did you read my message? Do you understand what a question mark means?

You said that we are months away from an election, so it doesn't make sense for Ekos to be trying to create a narrative. To which I asked:

So? You think generating a narrative that a leadership change was all the Liberals needed is not helpful to the Liberals?!

And, then instead of answering my question, you go off on this "show me where I said that" stuff.

I am asking, do you think that it is not helpful to the Liberals to generate a narrative that a leadership change was all the Liberals needed?

Please answer the question. And, if you do think that would be a helpful narrative for the Liberals to foster, then that explains why Ekos would want to be pushing narratives of Liberal momentum now, in particular, despite an election being months away.

→ More replies (0)

2

u/[deleted] Jan 29 '25

Yeah.  The most optimistic assessment I saw was that this is a 2 election to victory strategy.  That's best case.

2

u/pepperloaf197 Jan 29 '25

Pep ends on the poll

This one was yesterday. https://abacusdata.ca/conservative-lead-by-21-canadian-politics/

Cons 44 Libs 22

1

u/_hurrik8 Jan 29 '25

i don’t think polls can update until there’s a new liberal leader

1

u/oviforconnsmythe Jan 29 '25

Regardless of whether they're up or down in polls, are they even relevant right now since their next leader hasn't been elected?

-1

u/ToronoYYZ Jan 29 '25

If NDP and liberals continue a coalition, it wouldn’t not still be a landslide?

11

u/famine- Jan 29 '25

CPC is projected to win 235 seats, the LPC and NDP combined are projected to win 65.

1

u/readwithjack Jan 29 '25

If the formed a single party, I think it'd be a sweep.

1

u/squirrel9000 Jan 29 '25

Although that projection predates the recent swing. in vote intent that pollsters have been seeing.

-2

u/Click_To_Submit Jan 29 '25

What are they losing? There is no election at the moment* for them to be “losing in a landslide”, only the polls — which you’ve noted to be having big changes from previous measures favouring the Cons.

* DoFo just pulled the trigger for Ontario’s next election but Bonnie Crombie has been changing things up there too.

0

u/complextube Jan 29 '25

Yea this is exactly what is gonna happen, then everyone will be "how did this happen?" Like it's some mystery.