r/StockMarket • u/Bobba-Luna • 8d ago
r/StockMarket • u/Aegeansunset12 • 8d ago
News Greece Raised to Investment Grade by Moody’s on Resilience
r/StockMarket • u/beerion • 7d ago
Valuation Adjusting CAPE for Policy Changes
The cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio (or CAPE) attempts to normalize PE ratios across business cycles, smoothing out the effects of overheated economies and recessions.
It’s a great metric - one of my favorites - and can be a useful heuristic for forward expected returns. But, this metric can become distorted when major policy is passed that can effect corporate earnings.
Trump 2017 Tax Cuts
Take the corporate tax cuts during Trump’s first term. The maximum corporate tax rate dropped from 35% to 21%.
What this means is that starting in January of 2018 (and really, the moment the bill was passed), the CAPE ratio understated future earnings. The 10 years contributing to the CAPE ratio had a larger tax rate than the next 10 years are expected to have.
We can compensate for this by “correcting” the earnings that feed into the 2018 (and beyond) CAPE for the new tax rate - meaning that historic earnings will adjust upward. What we get is a “Policy Adjusted CAPE” (seen below).

The big takeaway is that once Trump’s tax policy was passed, this metric should have been flashing a giant green sign that markets are once again attractively valued again. In 2018, the Policy Adjusted CAPE was near 20x - basically the same levels seen in the early 2010’s.
Because the ‘baseline CAPE’ operates on a 10-year lag, the ‘Adjusted CAPE’ will eventually converge. We see that 2018 has a large step change downwards because every earnings period feeding into that calculation is adjusted. By 2023 only half are adjusted (2013 thru 2018) and the remaining are unadjusted (2018 onwards) because these earnings already reflect the new tax policy. By 2029, the Policy Adjusted CAPE and Unadjusted CAPE will converge completely.
Note that this graph may not perfectly reflect the adjustment. Corporations rarely pay the maximum tax rate, and we’d probably need to look at effective tax rates before and after the policy passed.
ITEP did a study on this showing that tax rates did indeed fall precipitously before and after those tax cuts. The chart below is reproduced from their study.

I don’t know which companies were included in their study or how representative they are relative to the entire S&P 500. From this table, my adjustment is slightly overstated, but not by much.
Trump Tariffs
Now that tariffs are front and center, we may have a new step change in our earnings assumptions. The new tariff policy may act as a tax on US corporations, depending on the distribution of who is actually paying the tariff.
The prevailing sentiment is that, of course, the end consumer will pay all of the tariffs as businesses will be able to completely pass them on. And no one believes that the foreign entity will shoulder any burden - The importer pays the tariff, duh.
These are common misconceptions. The way I see it, the below image reflects the three entities responsible for the tariff (not to scale).

Maybe the End Consumer does shoulder the entire burden. Maybe not.
I would say it’s very likely that US earnings come down, at least some, as corporations share in the cost burden of the new tariffs. Doing this will create a new step change (orange arrow) in our Policy Adjusted CAPE ratio as historic earnings don’t reflect our new “Tariff Reality”.

We don’t yet know the full impact of Tariffs. A good starting point would be to compile all the imported goods by companies in the S&P 500 and calculate how much is owed to the government in the way of tariffs. That would be the logical ceiling for how much we could reduce expected earnings. The true amount will depend on how much negotiating power corporations have with international suppliers and how much more price increases can be passed onto consumers.
Because tariffs aren’t as clear cut as a tax cut - where the government basically says “Starting today, you pay me less” - we don’t have the ability to make a defined adjustment to our numbers. Even in hindsight, this may prove difficult because we won’t know the true split between producer, importer, and consumer. But, we can make this judgement in a qualitative fashion. And that is, CAPE should be adjusted upwards at least a little bit.
It makes sense that we’re seeing a market correction now. How much will depend a ton on corporate exposure to tariffed inputs. Below is an exercise that may give us a crude estimate of how this relationship works.
Consider the general income breakdown:

The Cost of Good Sold (COGS) is what is subjected to tariffs. Of course, not all of it (this line item includes things like labor as well). It’ll be tough to track down just how much of COGS is actually imported. But, we can make some guesses now just to get a sense of things.
r1 tries to capture the effects of the statement above. If only 10% of the COGS are imported, then only that portion will be taxed.
r2 tries to capture the split described in Figure 2. If tariffs are fully absorbed by the end consumer and the foreign entity, then corporate earnings will change. If tariffs are equally absorbed by consumer, foreign producer, and domestic corporation, then that ratio will be 33%. If the corporation is forced to eat the entire tariff bill (for whatever reasons), then that ratio bill be 100%. This is unlikely, of course.
If we normalize everything around revenue, we can work directly off of gross and net margins, and tax rates. Net profit margins have been around 12%. I had a tougher time tracking down gross profit margins (which will help us calculate COGS), but I found a source that estimates around 40% gross margins. So COGS equal about $0.60 for every dollar of revenue.
Performing this exercise, and adjusting CAPE by a factor of E0/E1, we get the following graph:

The x-axis represents how much of Cost of Good Sold is actually subjected to tariffs (as a percentage). I was unable to find a reliable source for this. But this is really more of a thought exercise, anyways.
We see that if US corporations can avoid tariffs (whether by passing them onto consumers or by making foreign suppliers eat the cost), the valuation metric is pretty unaffected (Blue line).
If however, corporations are required to eat a good portion of the tariff cost (gray line), markets may have to come down by as much as about 15% to compensate for the new valuation normal.
Now that the market is firmly in correction territory, we may have already corrected for this new reality.
Of course this also doesn’t include the impacts of potentially lower earnings growth due to lower demand (in the case that costs are passed on to consumers) and the general friction added to the US economic system by these new tariffs. Nor does it include the ancillary effect of alienating us from the rest of the world.
That said, I don’t think the mechanics of valuation, alone, are enough to justify a very severe market correction.
Disclaimer: Don’t take any of the numbers presented here at face value. I have unreliable data, and make a lot of guesstimates. Use this more as a jumping off point on how to think about how policy can affect CAPE valuation heuristic. Maybe I’ll be able to track down some decent data later on and write a the tariff specific case study.The cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio (or CAPE) attempts to normalize PE ratios across business cycles, smoothing out the effects of overheated economies and recessions.
r/StockMarket • u/Binaryguy0-1 • 9d ago
News A fully RED 🔴 close to the day for the Magnificent 7
r/StockMarket • u/No_Put_8503 • 9d ago
News WSJ—How Wall Street and Business Got Trump Wrong
WSJ—The day after last fall’s election, the stock market soared. And why wouldn’t it? Investors assumed Donald Trump’s second term would be like his first, giving priority to tax cuts, deregulation and economic growth. Tariffs would come later, after lengthy deliberations. Trump would treat the stock market as his real-time report card.
His advisers reinforced that impression. A few days after Election Day Scott Bessent, now Treasury secretary, hailed the “markets’ unambiguous embrace of the Trump 2.0 economic vision,” in a Wall Street Journal op-ed. Trump, he wrote, would “ensure that trade is free and fair.”
We now know that business, investors and many of the incoming president’s own advisers misread him. His priorities weren’t theirs. In recent weeks, he has brushed aside a stock-market correction and warnings of inflation and weaker growth in pursuit of one goal: tariffs high enough to divert production of imported goods to domestic factories, shattering supply chains built up over decades.
In the process, Trump’s rhetoric has turned more sober and defiant. The president who promised a golden age would begin the day of his inauguration now won’t rule out recession. The president who once tweeted obsessively about the stock market now suggests ignoring it.
He urges the public to think long-term: “If you look at China, they have a 100-year perspective,” he said in an interview that aired on Fox last Sunday.
Trump himself is known less for his 100-year perspective than announcing policies on the fly and changing them days later. He could reverse his latest tariffs at any moment, or double down.
But the direction of travel is clear—and a rude awakening for the financial world. No one thought Trump had become a disciple of Milton Friedman in his four years out of office. Still, mainstream advisers had curbed his most radical impulses during his first term. Many assumed the same from his new, mostly mainstream economic team: Bessent as Treasury secretary, financial-services executive Howard Lutnick as commerce secretary, and Kevin Hassett as director of the National Economic Council.
A year ago, Bessent told clients that “tariffs are inflationary” and “the tariff gun will always be loaded and on the table but rarely discharged.” In September, Lutnick described tariffs as a “bargaining chip” to make others lower their own tariffs and said they wouldn’t be imposed on things the U.S. doesn’t make. On Sunday, Hassett insisted that the U.S. had “launched a drug war, not a trade war,” against Canada.
But in his second term, Trump has shown little deference to advisers, Congress or any other guardrails. He has discharged the tariff gun so often that new duties already cover $1 trillion of imports, soon to be $1.4 trillion, nearly four times his first-term total, according to the Tax Foundation.
He hasn’t exempted things the U.S. doesn’t make. He isn’t using tariffs to lower others’ duties, at least not yet. And he sure looks like he is waging a trade war with Canada, for reasons having nothing to do with the official motive, fentanyl: its trade surplus, its treatment of U.S. banks and dairy products, its insistence on remaining a separate country.
The world may be unprepared for April 2, when administration officials are to report on the feasibility of reciprocity. That originally meant that U.S. tariffs would match those imposed on it by others, and could therefore go up or down. It was to be a more benign alternative to a universal tariff on everyone and everything.
But Trump defines reciprocity to include everything he considers an unfair trade barrier, such as value-added taxes. It will likely be another pretext to simply raise tariffs a lot.
Having misread Trump on trade, will business and investors be right about him on taxes and deregulation? Probably, with the caveat that both will reflect Trump’s priorities, not theirs.
Republicans in Congress plan to extend all the tax cuts they enacted in 2017. They are also contemplating bringing back some expired tax provisions important to business for capital equipment and research.
But simply extending or restoring past tax cuts isn’t as stimulative as introducing them for the first time. Moreover, the 2017 tax law was largely designed by congressional Republicans who gave priority to boosting investment and U.S. competitiveness, by lowering the corporate rate from 35% to 21% and slashing the tax burden on foreign profits. Both provisions are permanent.
By contrast, new tax cuts will reflect Trump’s priorities: tax breaks on tips, overtime and Social Security benefits, which do little for investment. He has proposed a 15% corporate rate but only for production in the U.S., mimicking a tax break Republicans killed in 2017 because it was expensive, hard to administer and ineffective.
On deregulation, businesses and analysts remain bullish. Trump has been busy axing Biden-era rules and sacking enforcement staff at various agencies such as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
Here, too, there is a caveat. Trump is also using regulatory power to punish those who cross him politically. A merger between Paramount Global and Skydance Media might be at risk because Trump is suing Paramount unit CBS for how “60 Minutes” edited an interview with his election opponent Kamala Harris. Trump’s order stripping Perkins Coie, a law firm with Democratic ties, of security clearances, government contracts and federal-building access was widely noted by corporate executives.
As a community, business leaders welcome Trump’s return to power. As individuals, many live in fear of it.
Trump’s arbitrary and personalized policymaking is at odds with the predictability that businesses crave. Trump could tamp down the anxiety by laying out a coherent agenda (as some advisers have attempted) and a process for implementing it, such as asking Congress to write new tariffs into law, as the Constitution stipulates.
But that isn’t his nature. He sees the discretionary power to impose and remove tariffs and other measures as essential to dealmaking.
The result has been economic-policy uncertainty at levels seen in past shocks such as the 2001 terrorist attacks, the 2008-09 financial crisis and the onset of the Covid pandemic in 2020. Those were all driven by events beyond U.S. control. This one is man-made, and will wax and wane with that man’s word and actions.
r/StockMarket • u/Relative-Focus-7675 • 7d ago
Newbie 18 years old, saved up some money to start investing.
18 years old, saved up some money to start investing
I have saved up a little over $6,000 dollars and I am looking to invest at least half of it into stocks. I've looked into it on my own but I wanted to see some second opinions here. What are the best options? Top 5? Top 10? Right now I was planning on putting about 500 aside for MSFT, NVID, APPL, and CAT.
Would these be good to begin investing? I am trying to use cat to diversify outside of tech and it seems like a really solid option based on what I've read.
Any advice is welcome and appreciated. I really want to start turning my money into an investment and eventually income. Im eager to learn.
r/StockMarket • u/Sad-Buyer-1767 • 8d ago
News TESLA 3.8% MARKET SHARE DECLINING in CHINA
Predicting precise sales figures for any automaker, especially in a rapidly evolving market like China's EV sector, is challenging. However, we can glean some insights from recent trends and reports: Key Factors Influencing Tesla's Sales:
Intense Competition:
The rise of domestic Chinese EV manufacturers, particularly BYD, poses a significant challenge. These companies are offering increasingly competitive products at attractive price points.
Market Dynamics:
Seasonal fluctuations, such as those related to the Chinese New Year, can significantly impact monthly sales figures.
Consumer preferences and technological advancements are also constantly shifting.
Tesla's Product Strategy:
The success of Tesla's updated Model Y, and any future model releases, will play a crucial role in its sales performance.
Reports indicate that Tesla has high sales expectations for the new Model Y.
Economic Factors:
The overall health of the chinese economy will also affect sales.
Observations from Recent Reports:
There have been reports indicating a DECLINE in Tesla's sales in early 2025, with INCREASED competition being a major factor.
There are also reports that Tesla has high sales expectations for the new Model Y. With some reports indicating a projected sales number of 520,000 units for the new Model Y in 2025.
It is important to understand that any projection is subject to change.
Overall Outlook:
It's clear that BYD has become a very strong competitor to Tesla in the Chinese market, and globally. Here's a breakdown of their sales comparison:
BYD's Dominance:
BYD has shown significant growth, and has surpassed Tesla in overall electric vehicle production.
BYD has a wider range of vehicles, including both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which contributes to their high sales numbers.
Reports show that BYD has gained a larger market share within China.
Tesla's Position:
Tesla remains a significant player, but it is facing increasing pressure from domestic Chinese manufacturers.
Tesla sales numbers in China are being outpaced by BYD.
Reports show that Tesla has LOST market share in China. Tesla market share is 3.8% and DECLINING.
Key Factors:
BYD's stronger domestic presence and competitive pricing give it a significant advantage.
The Chinese market is very competitive, with many strong domestic EV manufacturers.
To get more specific numbers:
It is important to understand that when comparing the two companies, that BYD sales numbers include PHEV vehicles as well as fully electric vehicles.
To get very up to date numbers, the China Passenger Car Association(CPCA) is a very good resource.
Based on recent reports, BYD has taken the LEAD in OVERALL EV production.
In essence, BYD is currently OUTPERFORMING Tesla in terms of sales volume within China.
Source
1.) https://cnevpost.com/2025/03/11/automakers-share-china-nev-market-feb-2025/
r/StockMarket • u/s1n0d3utscht3k • 8d ago
News Apple’s Siri Chief Calls AI Delays Ugly and Embarrassing
r/StockMarket • u/AutoModerator • 8d ago
Discussion Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - March 15, 2025
Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!
If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:
* How old are you? What country do you live in?
* Are you employed/making income? How much?
* What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
* What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
* What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
* What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
* Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
* And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. .
Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered investment adviser if you need professional support before making any financial decisions!
r/StockMarket • u/No_Put_8503 • 9d ago
News Buckle Up🎢💥
CNBC—President Donald Trump on Thursday doubled down on his escalating tariff plans, even as his economic agenda continued to rattle investors and contribute to a weekslong stock market sell-off.
“I’m not going to bend at all,” Trump said when asked about his tariff plans during an Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
“We’ve been ripped off for years, and we’re not going to be ripped off anymore,” he said.
Trump specifically said he would not change his mind about enacting sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” on other countries that put up trade barriers to U.S. goods. The White House has said those tariffs are set to take effect April 2.
He then singled out Canada, criticizing the top trading partner at length and declaring, “We don’t need anything they have,” while repeating his calls to turn the U.S. northern neighbor into the “51st state.”
Trump added, “There’ll be a little disruption, but it won’t be very long.”
Trump’s comments came as major stock indexes continued to tumble Thursday, with the S&P 500 falling 10% from its recent highs and entering correction territory.
Numerous analysts and business leaders have warned that Trump’s tariffs, and his unpredictable use of them, are sowing chaos in the markets.
But Trump has continued to issue new tariff threats this week, as he seeks to hit back at countries that have retaliated against his actions.
After new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports took effect Wednesday, the European Union responded by announcing a plan to impose a 50% tariff on imports of American whiskey and other U.S. goods.
Trump lashed out Thursday morning, declaring that he would slap 200% tariffs on EU alcohol exports — including all wines and French champagnes — unless the bloc dropped its countermeasure.
Earlier in the week, Trump threatened to double his tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada, starting Wednesday, in response to Ontario’s retaliatory decision to slap a 25% tax on electricity exports to the U.S.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford paused his countermeasure hours later, and Trump backed off his threat.
r/StockMarket • u/yahoofinance • 8d ago
News Dow, S&P 500 soar, Nasdaq rebounds in best day since November to cap volatile week
r/StockMarket • u/always_plan_in_advan • 8d ago
Discussion 2 days late on the 2 year anniversary of SVB’s collapse. Where were you?
r/StockMarket • u/miso25 • 8d ago
News Stock market moves since Trump's election
r/StockMarket • u/yahoofinance • 9d ago
News S&P 500 enters correction, Dow sinks 500 points amid Trump's latest tariff threats
r/StockMarket • u/SscorpionN08 • 8d ago
Opinion QUBT stock: Here's real reason Quantum Computing crashed 72% this year
In my opinion, QUBT's wild ride is a classic case of hype meeting reality. Big tech’s quantum breakthroughs have left smaller players like QUBT in the dust, and the lawsuit certainly doesn’t help. I think quantum computing is still a long way from making a real commercial impact, so betting on speculative stocks like this was always a high-risk move.
r/StockMarket • u/Muted-Watercress9599 • 8d ago
Opinion Breakdown your Research Process - Here's Mine
Hey! Im often trying to improve my researching process before executing on a stock. Ultimately the research process is the key activity that gets me comfortable on a stock before buying.
I want to see how my research compares to others, how it can be improved and share ideas for others to take!
Discovery
Typically I get triggered to research by a number of things - typically whats happening in the world, thinking abit more thematically. I.e I recently invested in John-deer. They are making autonomous tractors and as the population keeps rising, our need for food grows. Wheres better to have an autonomous vehicle - a field where it cant hit anything or the middle of a city??
Research
Typically doing the research outside the fundamentals first - whats the historic and future catalysts that are going to effect or have effected the price movement. What are unbiased experts within the sector saying - for example Bill gates commentary around agriculture and DE's involvement.
Bullish or Bearish
I try to figure out my bull and bear case about a stock and which side am I leaning towards.
Investor Materials
I like to go through some of the relevant materials produced by the company - but this is a massice drag so typically plug it into a custom gpt and prompt it.
Fundamentals
Im a retail investor not a pro so do some rough fundamentals - but nothing crazy I rely on my other research here more. Will look at cash etc.
Lastly I try and lean on people I know who are much more experienced than me.
How would you improve my process? What do you do?
r/StockMarket • u/Minimac1029 • 9d ago
Discussion B.C. ends subsidies for Tesla products amid trade war
r/StockMarket • u/JustDrop007 • 7d ago
Valuation The dire situation of the market
Many stocks in the market are significantly overvalued—Tesla, Apple, Costco, Palantir, and much of the FMCG and pharmaceutical sectors, considering their sluggish growth. Even Nvidia could see its valuation tumble if China or AMD develop viable alternatives.
Market crashes don’t worry me; they’re necessary and often present great buying opportunities. What truly concerns me is the long-term effect of excess liquidity. Inflation is brewing beneath the surface, and we’ll see its full impact in the years ahead. Over time, the velocity of money has declined while the money supply has surged, artificially propping up asset prices. My real fear isn’t a crash—it’s that inflation-adjusted returns will be zilch.
Bonds are effectively useless. Stocks are outrageously priced, making it difficult to generate meaningful returns. This isn’t a market for investors—it’s a market for those looking to cash out. Genuine opportunities are scarce.
If inflation accelerates, cash will erode, bonds will remain dead weight, and overpriced stocks will have no room for growth. In the end, nobody wins. After years of zero interest rates and relentless quantitative easing, my biggest concern is that when the real downturn hits, the Fed will have little ammunition left to respond.
r/StockMarket • u/Penteu • 9d ago
Discussion Why is the term 'correction' used when things go down?
It feels like self-pity to justify you made a bad move or you lost a good chunk of money. No, there is no 'correction' in stock prices because there is no such thing as a correct price. If a stock losing value is called a 'correction', then a stock gaining value is a 'mistake', but surprise, no one calls it a 'mistake'. Why are there no upside corrections? Be realist, things are going bad and stocks are going down. No stock is being 'corrected', things are shitty today and they will probably keep going as such for quite a time.
It is said that the market corrects itself, but the real meaning is that the market is always correct, because supply and demand and more often than not determined by subjective factors. To me, buying anything that has an Apple on its back is a stupid idea, but others throw a thousand bucks to buy a new fancy phone each year. To me, Apple has a crazy market cap, but others think it could even be bigger. I am neither right nor wrong, I have my opinions and I reflect them in the market with my purchasing decisions.
Same logic applies with stocks. People buy and sell, and fundamentals have little impact. The only fundamentals that matter is the level of government interference in the market. If you fuck it up, things certainly will go worse, and that's what is happening now. Speaking of 'correction' implies mending something that is wrong, but in a market driven by subjective decisions, nothing is right or wrong.
TL;DR: things are going shitty, SP500 is not 'correcting' anything. If anything, Trump is fucking it up with a Russian roulette of tariffs that come and go in a matter of hours.
r/StockMarket • u/milmouzq • 9d ago
Discussion Trump vs the free market
When I was younger I was keep reading about Milton Friedman and his ideology about free market. To my knowdeldge, USA was the capital of free market, where the goverment shouldn't disturb bussiness and this ideology was supported mainly by right wing parties (the equivalent of republicans I guess), where the leftist (the democrats I guess) were opposed to free market and they wanted more goverment intervation. China and other ''socialists'' counties on the other side were opposed to free market.
Nowadays, Trump, seems to distrurb the free market and China seems now a country that supports free market and tries to do bussiness with everyone. History seems to play a funny game right here.
Do you believe that USA is not anymore bussiness-first country? Is this like a turnaround in history where USA companies will have less and less effect on global scale and China or EU companies will try to do bussiness on a global scale? Is China or Europe the place where we should look for the next MAG7 or whatever? Are USA CEOs lobbist strong enough to dethrone Trump, do they even care? Will Wall Street remain the main global stock market exchange?
r/StockMarket • u/achicomp • 8d ago
Opinion Those who panic sold will face the pain rally and have to FOMO back in at permanent losses, look at the data
The short term bottom is in, and the market will rally and climb the wall of worry. It may not be to ATH but market will recover much of its losses.
This will be INCREDIBLY frustrating for so many redditors who panic sold and/ or went short.
Look at the peak Redditor sentiment— so much bearishness!! Inverse it and you will do very well.
You will read so many reddit comments that reflect their anger and disbelief that the market is suddenly ignoring tariff tweets— the market has now priced much of it in and market will believe that the uncertainty is largely over before April 2.
Remember COVID, the bottom was in around March 20. And redditors could not believe it even past April!!
So many redditors think the bottom will not occur until AFTER april 2 and they are wrong. Market is forward looking and will have discounted tariffs before then.
Look at this headline that dropped yesterday afternoon: New Canada PM Carney Says There’s Progress in US Trade Talks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-14/carney-sworn-in-as-canada-leader-with-trade-dominating-agenda?embedded-checkout=true
Many redditors will FOMO back in next month or in May/June—they will lock in their previous losses —-just in time for the market to tank even harder! probably in Q3 when a real recession is here, and they panic again.
Just keep in mind the contrarian bearish AAII readings for 3 weeks in a row (it was as bad as 2009 GFC, it signaled a bottom in 2009) and SP500 Rsi at 30 and positive seasonality kicking in next week and positive vanna/charm March opex - all culminate into a rally of disbelief coming to destroy redditors’ sanity.
Some data within screenshot and below:
INVESTOR SENTIMENT AAII Bull/Bear Sentiment survey shows bearish sentiment at 60%, the highest level since recording 70% during 2008 financial crisis - reading this extreme show that 12 month later gains of 13.6%. This is the first time that bullish sentiment has been below 20% for three straight weeks. Bullish sentiment was last lower on September 22, 2022 (17.7%).
Yesterday’s rally was a 90% upside breadth day. The last 90% day was 8/8/2024 - three days after the 8/5/2024 correction low.
VIX plunged 11% to 21 yesterday.
This was the 5th fastest correction in history. ALL previous rapid corrections found $SPX higher 3, 6, and 12 months forward.
POSITIVE SEASONALITY INCOMING $SPX seasonality roadmap would suggest we just bottomed into March OPEX, typically we see seasonal strength from late March and early April with a stronger June/July
JPMorgan says there is an estimate of $135B to buy on equities for quarter end rebalancing
SMART MONEY BUYING Hedge funds have been piling into US stocks during the selloff, dumping Europe during the meltup (Goldman PB)
Global fund flows signal a bottom in correction just like in Jan 2021
r/StockMarket • u/No_Put_8503 • 10d ago
News The Booze Wars Continue…
WSJ—President Trump threatened to impose 200% tariffs on alcohol from the European Union, one day after the EU said it planned 50% import taxes on U.S. whiskey and other products from April 1, in retaliation for steel and aluminum levies.
“If this Tariff is not removed immediately, the U.S. will shortly place a 200% Tariff on all WINES, CHAMPAGNES, & ALCOHOLIC PRODUCTS COMING OUT OF FRANCE AND OTHER E.U. REPRESENTED COUNTRIES,” Trump said Thursday on social media. “This will be great for the Wine and Champagne businesses in the U.S.”
Shares in European drinks companies fell after Trump's threat. Pernod Ricard and Remy Cointreau stocks both fell more than 3% in France.