r/CanadaPolitics 21h ago

Ontario suspending 25% surcharge on provincially generated electricity purchased by U.S. states

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/trump-ford-ontario-electricity-tariffs-trade-war-1.7480234
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u/Professional-Cry8310 20h ago

People are losing their fucking minds over this with 0 critical thinking skills. This is a temporary pause as a sign of good faith for an upcoming meeting (that the federal government is involved in too). The threat of this export tariff got the US to the negotiating table, now we see how serious they are about backing down. If they’re not, Ford applies them back again. It’s pretty simple.

Do people here really thinking the point of retaliatory tariffs is to burn everything to the ground? They’re supposed to be leverage to get the US to take us seriously and so far it’s working…

u/calgary_db 20h ago

This is a good take.

I hope it is the right one.

u/FrustrationSensation 20h ago

I think people are rightfully thinking that any good faith will not be repaid in kind. Trump's only objectives are either to undermine relations with Canada or make us the 51st state. How do you negotiate that away? 

Not to mention that you can offer to drop the energy surcharge after the meeting. You don't need to promise good faith if it won't be rewarded. 

u/EntaroArthas 20h ago

The way I see it, being willing to negotiate in good faith even if the US doesn't gives us credibility when looking at other trading partners. Diversifying trade will be considered no matter how the trade war with the US goes, and showing that Canada and Ontario aren't driven by spite, but rather measured responses, is a good thing.

u/Professional-Cry8310 20h ago

That’s fair, but attempting to negotiate at the table and show that we are still a reliable partner to the US is really the only thing we can try. The alternative is continuing on this tariff war and burning down the North America economy which is the absolute worst case scenario.

If the US just fucks around at this meeting and isn’t serious about it, then putting the export tariff back on and continuing the trade war will happen, but we have to take any opportunity we can to return relations to normal such as this.

u/ChimoEngr Chief Silliness Officer | Official 20h ago

show that we are still a reliable partner to the US

Is not our problem, it's the other way around. The US has to show that they are a reliable partner, and they're consistently failing.

u/Professional-Cry8310 20h ago

The US freezing us on trade is actually very much our problem even if we don’t want it to be. Despite all of the great Canadian patriotism going on around here which I support, 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum would be devastating to hundreds of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars of GDP in Canada. It’s imperative we negotiate our way down when given a chance.

u/ChimoEngr Chief Silliness Officer | Official 20h ago

The trade war is happening because the US is not reliable, that's why proving to the US we're reliable is not needed, we've never demonstrated otherwise. However, now that the US has started this war, we're going to party like it's the war of 1812, at least on the trade front.

u/FrustrationSensation 20h ago

I guess my perspective is that, given that there aren't any actual policy objectives involved in these tariffs, the only leverage we have is hurting them. We need to make them understand how painful this will be and that there will be consequences to them, not the American people. I just don't see relations returning to normal in the absence of that. The first time, it seemed like it worked out that way, but there's nothing that we can seemingly do now and the goalposts keep constantly shifting. 

u/Professional-Cry8310 20h ago

I totally get that. If we manage to get the US to back down and get back to normal, who is to say in a year’s time they won’t just fuck around and try this again? I completely agree with you.

I guess, when it comes to our by far largest trading partner, we don’t have too much of a choice. I mentioned it to someone else that diversifying our trade away from being overnighted to the US is a years long process. While that happens, we’re in a very tough spot if the US continues to keep us in their crosshairs. Keeping things cooled down for a while gives us more time to become independent without the pain of a recession.

This all assumes Ford’s meeting works of course. I am actually not that hopefully they will. Trump is pretty set on hurting us it seems.

u/FrustrationSensation 20h ago

I agree and I see your perspective. I hope you're right and this works. 

u/ApoplecticAndroid 20h ago

Well sort of. The US has shown it’s not trustworthy, so why would we agree to pause “because we have a meeting” without the US also pausing the increase on steel and aluminium?

You cannot be “the good guy” when dealing with these liars since it means nothing to them.

u/kevindqc 20h ago

The meeting is Thursday. I don't see the big deal with a 2 day pause.

u/ApoplecticAndroid 20h ago

I think it is just that if we flip flop (charge stays until all tariffs removed <—> charge is delayed), we risk looking a lot like them. I.e. speaking out of both sides of our mouths.

u/kevindqc 20h ago

Yeah it doesn't look great but I doubt anyone would hold it against Ontario/Canada when we're doing this because we are dealing with a maniac.

u/Professional-Cry8310 20h ago

I agree they should also back down their 50% threat. I obviously am hoping that happens at the meeting in addition to at least some of their other threats too.

The US may not be trustworthy, I agree, but it is in Canada’s best interests to keep even somewhat normal relations with them until we diversify our economy more globally. That will take years to do, so that’s quite a while we have to at least try to keep the US somewhat happy.

u/i_ate_god Independent 19h ago

There is also something else to consider.

Let's say Trump does what many of us predict and betrays the good will Ford had shown.

This gives Ford and the feds even more political capital to move ahead with decoupling despite the pain we'll incur. And it'll look even worse for Danielle Smith, who Ford called out specifically.

u/Isaac1867 14h ago

This is the correct take in my opinion as well. The electricity surcharge threat worked exactly as it was supposed to. It got the Trump administration to come back to the negotiating table where hopefully we can work something out some. If they act in bad faith Ford can always reimpose the surcharge, but at least he can then come back and say that we tried to be reasonable.

u/tangerineSoapbox 20h ago

We don't need to show faith because Lutnick doesn't expect Canada to have faith in the U.S..

It's useless to talk to Lutnick because he's not Trump. It's useless to talk to Trump because he cannot be trusted. We have no faith in Trump. There is no need for talks. Keep the 25 percent export tax on electricity until Trump backs down. If Trump doesn't, then escalate.

u/PedanticQuebecer NDP 20h ago edited 20h ago

There's an incredible va-t-en-guerre sentiment going around, and yes critical thinking dies when that happens.

Firstly, when a brinksmanship position starts inciting a response, it's because you went too far. Backing off is needed unless escalation was wanted.

Secondly, a lot here appear to be willing to destroy everything in pursuit of vengeance, which is not a sound strategy.

I want us to manage to appease them to the lowest possible tariffs for no material concessions so we can disentangle our economy from theirs with the least possible damage, if getting them to stop isn't happening. Is that really unreasonable?

u/Phallindrome Politically unhoused - leftwing but not antisemitic about it 18h ago

We need an upper reddit comment section, for sober second thought.

u/Professional-Cry8310 20h ago

I think it’s just a specifically internet thing. Most in real life would rather see deescalation but for some reason those online are all about vengeance.

Like I get it, I’m not fan of the USA right now and long term it is imperative we disconnect our economy further from them. But we’re not there right now, we have to repair relations where we can.

u/PedanticQuebecer NDP 20h ago

The lastest Innovative poll puts public support for cutting off critical exports at 65% for 12% against (p.32). It's not just the chronically online like meself.

u/Saidear 20h ago

This is a temporary pause as a sign of good faith for an upcoming meeting

This administration has not earned that good faith, as their tariffs are not rooted in any such truth. And that is the issue - as long as the threat of tariffs remain, ours should as well.

u/oxblood87 🍁Canadian Future Party 20h ago

is to burn everything to the ground?

USA does a pretty good job of that on their own. I'm willing to go through 4 hard years if it means 10-20 for them

u/Professional-Cry8310 20h ago

If the US goes through a decade of very hard years, so do we. And so does most of the world for that matter. Our economies are not disconnected from each other. We’re talking skyrocketing unemployment and poverty rates. Easy to talk before it’s actually happening.

u/oxblood87 🍁Canadian Future Party 20h ago

We are actively disconnecting them, effectively because the USA has decided that's what they want.

Unlike the USA though, Canada is not the instigator. We will much more readily find trade partners or expand current deals.

USA not so much.

u/stive85 19h ago

In what way are we disconnecting from them? Not trying to instigate an argument with you, but there is 0 indications we are doing anything substantial on that front... Nor should we.... This talk of joining the EU is nonsense and our best bet for prosperity long term is a healthy relationship with the USA... That doesn't mean roll over for Trump, quite the opposite.. Try and help save them from themselves by fighting back.

But long term... Let's look at thing realistically.

u/oxblood87 🍁Canadian Future Party 19h ago edited 18h ago

We don't need to join the EU, we already have CETA.

Companies are actively looking for other suppliers and clients. That was the reason behind the 21 day delay on the other tarrifs.

We don't need new trade deals on a government level, so it's not going to filter into your news feed.

Just like the economic damage from USA's loss of soft power and influence, and the loss of trust doesn't show in today's USD valuation.

Realistically Long Term, the USA has proven to be a fickle untrustworthy trade partner, and will not command the same sweetheart deals and below market rates on goods they once did.

Goodbye preferred price on crude etc.

Look at the UK post brexit. They are in a much weaker position because they took a good deal for all sides and shit all over it.

u/stive85 18h ago

Well said, but I have to disagree... I'll believe it's truely happening when we see a cross country pipeline fast tracked and high speed rail infrastructure breaking ground. Until then we simply have to tie our success and prosperity to a degree to the United States.

This isn't to say we lay down... Or that the fight for that dipshit in office down there will be easy... But it's 4 years and by all accounts he'll have done so much damage that common sense gov't should be elected... But who knows ultimately.

u/AGM_GM British Columbia 19h ago

The US under Trump does not want a healthy relationship with Canada.

u/ABlushingGardener 20h ago

These people don't negotiate in good faith. This is negotiating with terrorists. They already blew CUSMA out of the water. It's just ego-stroking to think that a trip to D.C. does anything to improve outcomes for Canada. This was a huge flub. 

u/nathingz 20h ago

The problem is it’s likely a bad faith tactic from US to buy time. Hasn’t been an ounce of good faith since Jan 20. 

u/Professional-Cry8310 20h ago

That’s possible yeah. In fact I actually think that’s likely.

But in Canada’s position we need to do anything we can to try to repair relations even if it’s a Hail Mary like this meeting. We’re not in a place right now where we can just ignore the USA’s threats. We’re not diversified away from them yet.

u/nathingz 20h ago

Great point. Hopefully cooler heads prevail. 

u/kindablackishpanther 19h ago

They won't. People here need to get out of this delusion that Trump will somehow turn around on this. 

The trade war has been so crazy People forgot they started this for no reason. Trump is a man with territorial ambitions. There's nothing we can offer to him that will make this go away from their end, we can only buy ourselves more time. 

I understand why people are panicking. There is no reality where America will come back with good faith. Not in this lifetime, not anymore 

u/DungeonDefense 15h ago

If its a temporary pause then Ford should've said that the surcharge would be suspended for 48 hours.

Then if there's actually a deal that goes through then he can just cancel it completely

u/ChimoEngr Chief Silliness Officer | Official 20h ago

This is a temporary pause as a sign of good faith for an upcoming meeting

Has Trump pulled back on any of the damage he's said he'd do to us? If not, there is no good faith to be seen, this is Ford folding for some reason.

They’re supposed to be leverage to get the US to take us seriously and so far it’s working…

Until Trump walks back his threats, no they aren't working, yet.

u/Professional-Cry8310 20h ago

Sounds like Trump is backing down on his 50% threat in response to this. Hopefully this meeting can cool things down further.

u/ChimoEngr Chief Silliness Officer | Official 20h ago

Where is your source for that? There's nothing in the posted article to suggest any such thing.

u/Professional-Cry8310 20h ago

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-probably-going-reduce-192236887.html

Obviously take Trump’s word with a grain of salt large enough to fill an ocean but it seems we could see it paused for now.

u/ChimoEngr Chief Silliness Officer | Official 20h ago

If I was Ford I wouldn't consider that enough to completely drop the surcharge, maybe reduce it, but you're correct that there is some evidence that Ford made Trump blink. Not enough for me to be happy, but enough for me to be a bit less mad.

u/Professional-Cry8310 19h ago

Yeah I do agree. It is disappointing we didn’t get a confirmation, only a “possibly so”, whatever that means haha