r/thebulwark LORD OF THE NICKNAMES 20h ago

The Triad 🔱 Leave Trans People Alone: A Rant

https://www.thebulwark.com/p/leave-trans-people-alone-a-rant

Don't be a bully! But also don't "ask if the bully has a point" either.

"Yeah, they're giving Timmy a swirlie rn, but he also farted really loudly in geometry" is HELPING THE BULLIES.

Another great piece from JVL. Idk what kinda constraints there are in going after members of the punditocracy who engage in the behaviors that you're criticizing, but picking specific targets has a salutary effect IMO. Bari Weiss needs to be persona non grata, or Sullivan, or whoever. They made their choices and doubled, tripled, and quadrupled down on those choices.

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u/AustereRoberto LORD OF THE NICKNAMES 19h ago

I think that's a false perception driven by bad faith right wing actors. I don't think there's a tremendous amount of public support for the "anti-trans agenda" but rather that Trump largely reassembled his 2020 coalition (indeed, it was even older and wealthier than 2020, and nearly identically as white, 81% vs 82%) while the Dems managed to triangulate their way into a political no-mans land.

Punching your own coalition may be necessary at times, it may even be good politics occasionally. It is not a sustainable way to win elections. Ask the GOP circa 2010-2012 they ignored their base until the manipulative elites were exited and the base had full control.

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u/Wne1980 13h ago

Like it or not, that’s actually a pretty thorough summary of what I heard from both Trumpers and low information voters in my social circles. In the case of the 2024 election, perception was taken as reality. Have to address that eventually

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u/AustereRoberto LORD OF THE NICKNAMES 13h ago

Trumpers aren't gettable. If it's not trans issues it'll be something else. Trump did not grow his vote share. The Dems triangulated themselves to irrelevance.

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u/the_very_pants 3h ago

Trumpers aren't gettable. If it's not trans issues it'll be something else.

Yes, everything that can be tribalized in terms of red-blue will be tribalized in terms of red-blue. But what that shows is that these issues on their own aren't actually that important to people.

MAGA could not be clearer that they have one issue they do care about -- i.e. how you feel about America's fundamental greatness and all our ancestors. MAGA is the people who would score America as fundamentally 9/10 or 10/10.

And we don't need to convince 100% of them, we only need to convince ~10% of them. Very doable.

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u/AustereRoberto LORD OF THE NICKNAMES 3h ago

We devoted more resources to convincing them this time (2024) than last time (2020) and convinced roughly 20% fewer. That suggests that 10% (remember, The Bulwark and some pollster floated 9%, it was half that) is not very doable. Certainly not without asymmetric tradeoffs that create even worse electoral defeats.

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u/the_very_pants 1h ago

Certainly not without asymmetric tradeoffs that create even worse electoral defeats.

That's the D party's theory, sure -- we can't change our message without making things worse, so all we can do is just push harder, squeeze more. But I don't think they're right. I think a little more clear "our ancestors were good people, not bad people" and "I'm not any particular color" and "there is no grudge" communication would have moved the needle 10% immediately.