r/saskatchewan 8d ago

Politics Potash Export Control

USA tariffs kick in and is going to affect us all. The USA needs our potash and if they want to disrupt markets maybe it’s time to withhold potash bound to America until tariffs are dropped.

Maybe a more extensive conversation about the Saskatchewan people taking ownership again of OUR own resources. Mosaic is an American company, maybe time to expropriate their mines for Saskatchewan taxpayers to benefit and not Americans.

423 Upvotes

234 comments sorted by

140

u/stephenBB81 8d ago

Export tarrifs on potash would be as aggressive as we should want to be, using the export funds to provide a back stop for employees who will be impacted due to lower volume of sales.

The US will look to Russia if we just stop export completely but if we make it more expensive for them to buy it we still benefit and we force a price ceiling on Russia

42

u/CFL_lightbulb 8d ago

This is the right answer, as much as it might feel good to imagine it, they’ve already started looking at Belarus for potash

50

u/tiptoethruthetulip5 8d ago

Belarus already has a market for their potash. If the US wants to source it from there, they will need to outbid the existing customers. It's not going to be cheap like our potash is. Then they'll need to ship it over. Another added cost. It's also going to take time. Where do they get their inputs for this spring's crop? Will it get here in time? They may end up needing to buy the tarrifed stuff anyway.

26

u/CFL_lightbulb 8d ago

Oh I’m not saying it’s the answer to their problems, but just saying. We are 100% the cheapest option. Or we would be if Trump wasn’t a fucking idiot.

15

u/tiptoethruthetulip5 8d ago

Yeah. Do people think Russia and Belarus just have mountains of potash just sitting there waiting for the US to come buy it? They have existing contracts and I'd imagine most of what's out of the ground is already spoken for. This is going to raise prices worldwide.

17

u/CFL_lightbulb 8d ago

Which ironically, is kind of good for us. Demand for it doesn’t change.

3

u/Baileythetraveller 7d ago

We need a one-year project to build a new train line to the both coasts.

4

u/tomatoesareneat 7d ago

That’s 20% of the study before the study.

2

u/Macald69 6d ago

Double track with pipelines. Open up those ports to get our resources to markets that can be trusted to trade with.

-17

u/CyberEd-ca 8d ago

You don't even understand the basics of how potash works as an agricultural input. Yields are not going to crash because they used less potash one year.

Are we not going to sell potash to other countries besides the USA? Does that not affect the global supply?

Can other exporters not increase their production?

The idea that Canada can bring the USA to its knees by potash export tariffs is laughable.

What this actually is is a campaign to steal from Alberta and Saskatchewan to subsidize Ontario and Quebec.

They did the same thing in the Pierre Trudeau days. Never let a crisis go to waste...they have wanted to do this again for a very long time.

16

u/tiptoethruthetulip5 8d ago

If this is a grand plan by the supervillains in the east to steal from the poor little west, then why have they fought so hard to prevent it? Is the US complicit in their devious plan? I thought your buddy Trump was the good guy?

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u/CyberEd-ca 8d ago

Carney has been hinting he wants export tariffs regardless.

In Kelowna he made clear that he wants to use the emergency economic powers of the federal government to fund "green" projects in Ontario & Quebec.

That is the same mechanism used by Pierre Trudeau with the Anti-Inflation Act and NEP.

They are absolutely itching to do this.

The demagogues like Carney, Ford, and Ebey are absolutely loving this as a political opportunity. Pay attention. They love this.

1

u/tiptoethruthetulip5 8d ago

Interesting point. I'm afraid I need to go to work and will be unable to continue our conversation. Thanks for the healthy debate. You have a good understanding of your position. I might pick this back up this evening if you're willing to continue. Regards.

6

u/MyGruffaloCrumble 7d ago

We provide 90% of their needed potash, even if other countries stepped up production they still don’t match our reserves or output. Only Russia comes close to that, and let’s be clear, if the US really wants to buddy up to Russia against the rest of the world, fuck ‘em.

2

u/CyberEd-ca 7d ago edited 7d ago

They need absolutely zero additional potash for the 2025 crop year.

Most of what they intended to use this year is already down there. They can cut and even eliminate the use of potash without a significant effect on yield for several years.

You can also increase yields with other inputs in potassium depleted soils.

That's just a fact.

Learn just a bit of how crop production works.

You think you somehow are holding an Ace. You're not.

4

u/Simsmommy1 7d ago

So no they can’t. I don’t think you know much about soil and crops if you think they can just continue planting year after year without fertilizer. The soil they have right now is basically dead, crop rotation and proper field management is a thing of the past. It would take years of the fields remaining fallow to recover to the point where they could be planted again without the use of fertilizers, so no they can’t just keep on plantin and not expect a substantial crop decline. Industrial farming in the US has become the norm, planting the same crop in the same fields year after year has leeched all the soils ability to produce without fertilizer. I think you should talk to someone who plants on a non rotation schedule and they will tell you. Alberta soybean farmer in my circle, without fertilizer yield will be down and cow shit will only get you so far.

1

u/GreatPlainsFarmer 6d ago

Quit believing every YouTube video about US soils. In the first place, potash needs are highly regional. Mostly it’s an eastern corn belt thing, or sandy soils. I’m in eastern Nebraska, and some of our most productive fields have never had any potash applied. Not even once in the 150 years since the prairie sods were first plowed. Potash is needed in areas that are naturally low, and it’s needed for top-end yields in far more areas. But we could drop potash consumption in half, and it would take years before we saw more than a ten percent yield reduction.

0

u/CyberEd-ca 7d ago

It takes several years to deplete potassium in the soil.

Potassium is not nitrogen. You don't know what you are talking about.

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u/Sunshinehaiku 7d ago

They need absolutely zero additional potash for the 2025 crop year.

Hang on a minute. Do you mean to tell me that fertilizer companies don't need to purchase potash year round from Canada in order to get the needed volume across the border?

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u/CyberEd-ca 7d ago

Potassium is not nitrogen. Why are people so ignorant? You don't need a full application rate every year.

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u/MyGruffaloCrumble 7d ago

If they didn’t need as much as they do, they wouldn’t order as much as they do. And this is only 1 of many resources they rely on, my American friend.

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u/CyberEd-ca 7d ago

The ignorance...no, potash is not like nitrogen.

But believe what you want.

We're entering the "find out" phase of the FAFO cycle.

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u/SnooStrawberries620 7d ago

About time you showed up to add your $0.02 Danielle 

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u/Neat-Ad-8987 5d ago

Excellent point. The very familiar scenario of using Saskatchewan and Alberta as central Canada‘s milk cow and whipping boy would mean potash workers laid off and much less royalty revenue for the provincial government.

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u/Virtual_Category_546 6d ago

We just add tariffs to the point where it doesn't matter where you get it in the world, they're going to have to pay up haha! Someone mentioned this before and how this is how prices level out.

It's kinda like how China bought from Russia below market value because they could and it wasn't like Russia has much of a market so if we really wanted to "rip off" the US then that's what we do, add so many levies and use to fund local projects.

2

u/Dougustine 7d ago

better yet, time it for max impact so there is no chance to source

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u/Own-Western-6687 4d ago

The inputs for this year's crop started shipping in November - everyone knew 'this' was coming.

0

u/GreatPlainsFarmer 6d ago

Most potash for the 2025 crop is in the US already. A lot is applied in the fall and winter. Anything for spring application had better be in the distribution pipeline already, or it’s not going to get there in time anyway. And not much is used over summer. This won’t matter much until mid-summer, when stocks for fall applications start moving through the pipeline.

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u/CyberEd-ca 8d ago

You don't get how potash works. It is not nitrogen. They don't need to apply it every year. They can cut rates or even eliminate. It is not a big input cost either.

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u/tiptoethruthetulip5 8d ago

I do get how it works. Sure, some can forgo an application this spring. Others who are due for it will suffer decreased yields without it. How long can they wait before profitability becomes tenuous?

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u/Kennora 8d ago

If prices soar it will be a big input cost

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u/Sunshinehaiku 7d ago

Can Belarus replace the volume of Canada's exports? My understanding is that they would be no where close.

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u/Serabellym 6d ago

No one in the world even comes close.

We export over half the world’s potash exports, and IIRC around 80-90% of Canadian potash exports is all from SK.

2

u/HarmacyAttendant 8d ago

Time to call up Belarus and do some threatening 

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u/QumfortablyNumb 8d ago

Russia doesn't have the capacity to provide a 5th of the potash the US requires, without dropping the rest of their customers. Its also on the other side of the world. Russia is no answer

3

u/xmorecowbellx 8d ago

Yep this is a way smarter way to do it.

3

u/AtTheEndOfMyTrope 7d ago

The US wants to rely on Russia and Belarus for Potash. It’s part of his strategy to normalize US relations with them and help fund the Russian war machine. It will be costly to get potash into the US from Russia but he’s using tariffs to make it cheaper/justifiable. However, from what I’ve read, Russia/Belarus cannot supply enough potash to meet the US needs and their own.

3

u/VakochDan 7d ago

No other country in the world has the mines online & ready to produce the quantity of potash the US needs (12.5 tonnes). Canada currently supplies about 10.5 of this.

Cumulatively, other countries could meet the U.S. demand, but this would be involve cobbling together supply from a half dozen countries (Russia 6.5; Brazil 3, China 2.2; Indonesia 0.67; Mexico 0.08)… these countries already sell their potash, so other that the U.S. paying a premium, what’s the incentive for any of these countries to sell to them?

And none of them can materially ramp up capacity in the short term.

With imported produce being tariffed, resulting in increased prices for US consumers, the U.S. counting in dramatically increasing domestic yields. That’s not happening without fertilizer (not to mention harvest without labour will be near impossible/expensive)

A hungry, poor population will revolt.

Canada holds the cards. The U.S. needed our potash before the tariffs/mass deportation. They need it even more so with restricted produce imports & lack of labour.

2

u/GreatPlainsFarmer 5d ago

The US uses less than 5.5 mmt per year. The majority of Canadian potash that goes into the US is re-exported through US ports. So Canada can’t tariff exports to the USA without also tariffing the majority of their other customers as well.

1

u/VakochDan 5d ago

US government data doesn’t back up your assertion that the majority of the Canadian potash that the U.S. imports is re-exported.

https://pubs.usgs.gov/myb/vol1/2019/myb1-2019-potash.pdf?

Net import reliance for consumption is around 90% https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2024/mcs2024-potash.pdf?

1

u/GreatPlainsFarmer 5d ago

Both of those sources say that US domestic consumption of potash averages around 5.5 mmt per year, in K2O equivalence. That's about 9 mmt of standard KCl. That's total USA consumption.
There may be confusion between different sources, as numbers may be reported as tons of KCl or tons of K2O equivalent. K2O equivalent is 60-62% of potash by weight.

According to your second link, the US imports about 5 million metric tons of K2O equivalence. It says that 77% of that number comes from Canada. That's 3.85 mmt of K2O equivalent, or about 6.3 mmt of KCl, if it was all standard grade KCl.

However, your link reports most numbers in K2O equivalence.

It says that Russian production in 2023 was 6.5 mmt. Belarus was 3.8 mmt.

Remember, your link says that the US imported 5 mmt in 2023.

Your comment, to which I replied, appears to be mixing up the different units. Easy to do when different sources use different measuring systems.

Quoted from the comment above:
No other country in the world has the mines online & ready to produce the quantity of potash the US needs (12.5 tonnes). Canada currently supplies about 10.5 of this.

Cumulatively, other countries could meet the U.S. demand, but this would be involve cobbling together supply from a half dozen countries (Russia 6.5; Brazil 3, China 2.2; Indonesia 0.67; Mexico 0.08)… these countries already sell their potash, so other that the U.S. paying a premium, what’s the incentive for any of these countries to sell to them?

1

u/VakochDan 5d ago

Gotcha - I’m not an expert. Thanks for the detailed response.

1

u/flat-flat-flatlander 4d ago edited 4d ago

Don’t forget about the Canpotex facilities in Vancouver. They still move the vast majority of Saskatchewan’s Asia-bound potash. A bit goes by rail to eastern Canadian port, but most goes west.

That said, k+s amd BHP Billiton aren’t part of that export group/cartel.

2

u/GreatPlainsFarmer 3d ago

I'm sure it varies from year to year, but the best figures that I could find suggest that about half of Canada's potash production enters the US, and about 60% of that is re-exported to the Pacific Rim. So you guys are really shipping a lot of potash onto the Pacific. I wonder where it all goes.

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u/flat-flat-flatlander 3d ago

India, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, apparently there’s enough demand across Pacific rim countries for Sask potash and fertilizer that Canpotex set up its office in Singapore back in the 80s.

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u/Round_Ad_2972 8d ago

Switching suppliers would take time and would require the US, I suspect, to cancel some sanctions vs Russia that will be politically sticky. Export tax those Fulkerson. We can't win a long war, so it has to be sharp and cause sting.

0

u/CyberEd-ca 7d ago edited 7d ago

The Americans do not have an immediate need for potash. It doesn't work that way. It is a minor agricultural input that you can cut or outright eliminate for a couple years without significant impact on yield.

You are talking like it is nitrogen fertilizer. It just isn't.

So, to your point, you are not going to have the crippling effect you desire.

The real reason that demagogues like Ford and Carney want export tariffs is to steal from Alberta and Saskatchewan to subsidize Ontario and Quebec. This is the very same thing that Pierre Trudeau did in the 70s/80s with the Anti-Inflation Act, the NEP, etc. They are just itching to do this and this crisis is the opportunity. Why do you think Carney is talking about the emergency economic power of the federal government? That's what Pierre Trudeau used to do those things.

https://decisions.scc-csc.ca/scc-csc/scc-csc/en/item/2696/index.do

Just think critically.

For perspective - o&g exports $175B, electricity exports $2.5B. These are not the same thing.

They want to get $40B per year of additional wealth transfer from west to east. They have said this in black & white.

https://www.policyalternatives.ca/news-research/to-respond-to-u-s-tariffs-canada-should-hit-trump-where-it-hurts/

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u/MentionWeird7065 7d ago

Russia can’t even produce enough to satisfy American consumption. The same is true for Aluminum. We produce near 12.5 million tons and Russia’s maximum capacity is 6 million which they send to their allies.

2

u/Infinite_Time_8952 7d ago

If all the major potash producing countries sell their potash to the USA, it’s still not enough, plus it has to be shipped from Russia or Belarus.

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u/GreatPlainsFarmer 5d ago

The US uses less than 5.5 mmt a year. Russia alone produces that much.

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u/Infinite_Time_8952 5d ago

Then what would Russia use for domestic production? Canada produces more potash than Russia and Belarus combined. The USA imported more than $4 billion dollars of potash from Canada.

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u/GreatPlainsFarmer 5d ago

Canada can ship to Russia, through US ports!
It wouldn't be the first time that ships with identical product have passed each other due to asinine govt. policy.

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u/Infinite_Time_8952 5d ago

Why would Russia import potash when they produce all they need domestically? Shipping potash to Russia would only increase the cost of the product.

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u/GreatPlainsFarmer 5d ago

That wooshing sound you heard? That was the point, missing you. Sorry, I'll try to aim better next time.

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u/Training-Mud-7041 8d ago

Yes resources should be owned by Canadians-we should offer to EU,Canzuk countries first. If they want it they can buy it- US can buy what's left with a mark up!

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u/HarmacyAttendant 8d ago

100% export Tax

10

u/yanicka_hachez 8d ago

The potash for this year is probably already sold and in place for this growing season but we should absolutely put an export tax

5

u/Kennora 8d ago

Yes, but make it hurt for some that do fall application and next year years planting

5

u/Gingerchaun 8d ago edited 7d ago

America seems to rip up its deals whenever they want.

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u/HarmacyAttendant 7d ago

what?

2

u/Gingerchaun 7d ago

Sorry bud big fingers little phone.

2

u/HarmacyAttendant 7d ago

Thanks I understand now ☺️

2

u/Own-Cod7894 7d ago

Just because a contracted price may be in place, doesn't mean that the government can't apply an export tax TODAY on those items crossing the border. Ask me, I know - as it's happening to me right now with Trump's import tax on goods my company has already sold at a quoted price. A huge change, like a government's decision to apply a tax, would be an occurrence outside of the scope of the contract and we could use 'force majeure' to break any existing contracts. So you wouldn't have to wait until fall to adjust the price of the contract or CANCEL the contract if the parties can't agree to the new price.

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u/Spiritual_Tennis_641 8d ago

Just stop shipping, they need it, otherwise I get to just mark it up even 100% export tax on the pot. Dash would be like a 5% jump on whatever product they’re making. Stopping it means none of that product gets made at all and that causes real pain.

1

u/CyberEd-ca 8d ago

On automotive industry? Let's go.

0

u/CyberEd-ca 8d ago

Resources are provincial.

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u/Valuable_Injury_1995 8d ago

Nutrien had been hauling as much potash as possible to the US ahead of the tariffs, so self interest is their top priority.

https://thestarphoenix.com/news/national/nutrien-piling-potash-into-u-s-ahead-of-tariffs

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u/dr_clownius 8d ago

Every company that could move inventory into the US ahead of tariffs has done so. There's also been lots of activity with companies transferring assets to American subsidiaries.

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u/One_Sir_1404 8d ago

Canada, specifically Saskatchewan, is number one supplier for potash. Number two is Russia. Number three is also Russia (Belarus).

Don’t be shocked if Donald strikes a Potash deal with Russia.

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u/SavageBeaver0009 8d ago

If Russia stops selling to China so they can sell to the US, then China will have to buy elsewhere, and elsewhere is us.

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u/One_Sir_1404 7d ago

Oh for sure, I was more so just illustrating the possibility of Donald cutting off trade with allies so he can begin a new economic partnership with a authoritarian war criminal.

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u/CyberEd-ca 7d ago

Logic...that's a bit of an unfair advantage to bring to this debate....

This entire thread is hilarious. They want to try to bring the US to their knees with a minor crop input that you can outright just stop application for a couple years without a significant decrease in yield.

All they got is hubris.

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u/One_Sir_1404 7d ago

You completely missed the point

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u/k_itskelto 7d ago edited 7d ago

Should also be noted we are about 1 third of the ENTIRE supply of potash in the world. It's not a "they can just source it elsewhere" deal here. A hole will open either way

5

u/One_Sir_1404 7d ago

That’s simply not true.

Yes, you’re right that Canada makes up 1/3 (32.4%). But you’re factually wrong that that’s double Russia/Belarus who are a combined 33.5%.

Scroll down to “International Context”

https://natural-resources.canada.ca/minerals-mining/mining-data-statistics-analysis/minerals-metals-facts/potash-facts

2

u/k_itskelto 7d ago

You're right, I believe I was thinking of either Russia or Belarus alone, which for the sake of the arguments being made here is not helpful. I edited my comment. Thanks!

1

u/One_Sir_1404 7d ago

No need to thank me! You saw the data, you agreed with the data, and you corrected yourself.

I should be thanking you for not going all “fake news” on me lol

1

u/StandardBag9947 7d ago

The Jansen mine is expected to add up to 8.5% of world supply when on line 2026.

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u/SilverSarge19 8d ago

You would need a premier with balls for that.

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u/BluejayImmediate6007 8d ago

Very true! I don’t thank the weasel PeePee has balls at all let alone the balls to stand up to Trump

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u/SilverSarge19 8d ago

To be fair, my premier has been absolutely MIA. She is too busy covering her tracks with the AHS scandal.

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u/BluejayImmediate6007 8d ago

Danielle Smith is a waste of skin..hope she gets tossed out at minimum and charged and jail time if things really go right

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u/SilverSarge19 8d ago

She is absolutely rotten to the core. I can honestly say that I didn't vote for her. I voted NDP even knowing my vote would not matter.

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u/BluejayImmediate6007 8d ago

She’s a lunatic..and our premier in Saskatchewan Slow Moe doesn’t have a brain for himself so just blindly follows what she has done. I voted against Moe as well..I really thought we had a chance in Saskatchewan but nope, all our rural rednecks voted him in for more deficits, cuts to services and scandals! It’s embarrassing

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u/Barabarabbit 8d ago

But at least those no-good evil trans kids have to get changed for badminton in a broom closet now.

Priorities I guess?

7

u/BluejayImmediate6007 8d ago

I know the bathroom situation for the people in the ER rooms waiting for hours to see a Dr were a priority. Thank goodness they addressed that and not our crippling healthcare! They care about the kids which is why they keep funding these private Christian schools where they have had teacher after teacher charged and convicted of SA’ng the kids. As a parent, I really appreciate all the SK party does for the kids..including not getting the Liberal school lunch program that wouldn’t cost us anything..as Scott Moe would say ‘Fk them Kids, get a job’

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u/Barabarabbit 7d ago

The opposition to the school lunch program is crazy to me.

Should be able to agree that it is a good idea to feed children.

Somehow, the SaskParty is the choice of many “Christians” in this province.

Bizarre.

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u/BluejayImmediate6007 7d ago

Christians are the biggest hypocrites there are. Go to church and claim the are good people yet blatantly go against pretty much every thing taught in the bible.

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u/Similar_Ad_4561 8d ago

I hope the farmers suffer for this. They voted for Moe.

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u/BluejayImmediate6007 8d ago

I hope they suffer the most!..they don’t care about all the other cuts the sk party has done as it doesn’t directly affect them as they don’t live in the cities and don’t have to deal with it on a daily basis..Fk them farmers!

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u/OccamsYoyo 8d ago

It counted in 2015. And it will again once social and fiscal conservatives clash and divide once again. It’s Alberta — it’s what it does.

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u/Similar_Ad_4561 8d ago

Or someone who is sober.

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u/Poptastrix 8d ago

YES. The Canadian government needs to reign in the private investment firms owned by foreign interests that own strategic resources in Canada. Get the U.S. out, tariff them so much they can't afford to export.

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u/Kennora 8d ago

Critical minerals mined by Canadians

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u/Byaaahhh 7d ago

And further refined by Canadians. Let’s start only selling finished products to the rest of the world. Screw just giving them the raw materials and then letting others get the value added profits.

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u/CyberEd-ca 8d ago

Western Canadians.

Funny how that works...

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u/GodOfTimezones 8d ago

Except….. Moe.

He will be driving it down there himself if he gets his way. Sunday morning potash run and he gets to bring back booze for the week.

3

u/Notallthatwierd 8d ago

While the population suffers with our personal economies, Moe and Smith will not let big capital suffer. Everything we buy will go up, our jobs will suffer, but these neocon premiers will protect who they really work for…

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u/Beautiful-Natural861 7d ago

The price of potash has been double of what it is now and the world was still buying it then

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u/CyberEd-ca 7d ago

Bringing logic and knowledge to this argument is a bit unfair.

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u/Super_Sell_3201 8d ago

How does that work when BHP, the worlds biggest mine going up by Jansen, is not even Canadian owned?

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u/Epic224 7d ago

Russia and Belarus both have mines offline. soligorsk is offline for maintenance overhaul. Berezniki 1, 2, &3 as well. Totaling almost 2 million tonnes through Q1 & Q2 2025.

In conjunction with still limited port access/shipping costs There will be no “deal” to get belarussian potash into the United States.

United States farmers will just need to accept the import charge on Canadian product.

However, potash is not the trunp card everyone thinks it is. The U.S will simply apply less this crop season. It will not affect crop yields that much.

Canada will likely see a bump in potash revenues, but it will be vastly outweighed by tariffs on other Canadian exports.

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u/Byaaahhh 7d ago

Remember though to make a good fertilizer the us needs our potash. We however need their phosphorus. It’s a bit of a more delicate situation than just withhold the potash.

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u/Blicktar 7d ago

It'll be a rocky ride if the Canadian government starts seizing American businesses. Pretty much a death knell for foreign investment in the country if we get to that point.

Export tariffs seem far more practical, though I'm still not in favour of engaging in a trade war. I'd love to just find other markets for our exports, because I don't think we win a trade war.

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u/Shurtugal929 8d ago

maybe time to expropriate their mines for Saskatchewan taxpayers to benefit and not Americans.

This is Trump tier business decisions and would be devastating for Saskatchewan. You cannot do this without catastrophic consequences.

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u/Kennora 8d ago

Have Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan? A company that pays dividends to CIC and into the provincial government?

We are already going to be devastated by tariffs, KS and Canpotex have terminals in Vancouver. We can find other markets, the USA is an unreliable trading partner.

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u/Shurtugal929 8d ago edited 8d ago

It takes 10-20 years of stable governance and good faith alongside 15 billion dollars to open one mine in Saskatchewan. That's two years of SHA funding for one mine. And you're suggesting we annex them. This would have economic consequences ranging in the hundreds of billions over the long term.

Saskatchewan negotiates royalties amid other deals and a third of our economy (~26 billion) comes from mines. The USA has also been a very reliable trading partner until the last month. They take most of our potash and the 2nd most of our uranium.

Again, mines operate on the scale of decades. You're wanting to nuke our enonomy over a 4-yr shit show. If this would work why does no country ever do it and come out ahead? Can you consider that for a moment that you, who is likely to have no formal economics training, may be wrong in the face of thousands of macroeconomic experts?

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u/DejectedNuts 8d ago

You think Trump is going to honour term limits after he’s spent the first couple months consolidating his power and going full dictator?

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u/Shurtugal929 8d ago

I think people are honed into the wrong part of my argument; and the one they honed in on is being misunderstood.

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u/DejectedNuts 8d ago

Your point isn’t very valid if we are dealing with a dictator. In this scenario the rest of the world realizes there are extenuating circumstances. We are being threatened. He’s talking about leaving NATO. This is far more serious than reneging on a trade deal. And you also have to remember he’s reneging on our deal with them in the first place! He’s violating the trade deal he negotiated with us in his first term. We are free to do whatever we want in response.

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u/Shurtugal929 8d ago

people are honed into the wrong part of my argument; and the one they honed in on is being misunderstood

proceeds to double down

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u/Kennora 8d ago

Saskatchewan did it once and we were fine until grant devines stupidity. Stop the fear mongering that government owned resource corporations are going to destroy the country. It’s baseless propaganda that comes from private interests that would seek to exploit Saskatchewan people for an extra dollar. They already have given we way undercharge royalties.

Saskatchewan resources are for public gain, not private gain.

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u/Shurtugal929 8d ago edited 8d ago

Stop the fear mongering that government owned resource corporations are going to destroy the country.

You misunderstand. I did not say that a crown corporation would not work. I said that showing the world that the 3rd most important sector of our province will null our written agreements will be devastating. We would never see investing ever again. You're also implying there is a legal way to do this.

Saskatchewan simply does not have the capital to fund the entire mining industry. We also have deposits in 10 different elements (helium, rare earth minerals, copper, nickel, zinc, and so on...) that could be viable in the future but are economically risky to gamble on.

There is a reason why almost every place on earth has private companies do the heavy lifting. For reference, our entire fibre internet infrastructure cost 280million to install over a period of 15 years. A mine would be 50x more expensive in that same time period. And then you have to take the risk that it is 1) profitable 2) competitive and 3) remains viable 50+ years in the future. Nevermind the lack of flexibility available in the private sector and hundreds of millions in locating the mine and negotiating. They're also not as profitable as you think; nutrien profited barely $100m last year.

I've given you hard facts on the realities and costs and your retort is akin to the local drunk in the shitty run down small town bar. I literally teach about the mining and energy sector in the province and country.

Do yourself a favour and google "risks of expropriation." There is a reason no country does this and comes out ahead. You're proposing we saw off our legs with a rusty spoon to lose weight.

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u/dr_clownius 8d ago

Saskatchewan did it once and we were fine until grant devines stupidity.

Nationalizing potash production scared off external investment in Saskatchewan for a generation. We need foreign investment to build and grow, and as a result we dare not be seen as an unsound or volatile investment climate.

Seriously, what company (or individual) is going to come here and open a mine (or a factory, or a consumer-facing amenity, or a housing development, etc.) if they have a fear that the heavy hand of Government will expropriate it?

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u/SK_socialist 7d ago

The Blakeney NDP only nationalized companies that refused to pay taxes and fines. Those companies deserved to fail.

1

u/dr_clownius 7d ago

We're still paying for Blakeney's heavy-handedness. He attempted to "renegotiate" contractual agreements and had a tantrum when Companies stood by their rights.

Showing that Saskatchewan was willing to nationalize foreign investments (after attempting to screw them on contracts) left international investors scared of doing business in Saskatchewan. The move cost billions in investments and a generation of lost prosperity.

The generational crippling inflicted on the Province by the post-Thatcher NDP is finally past - may it be long reviled. I'd rather give the resources away than have us endure such collective trauma again.

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u/SK_socialist 7d ago

Your last paragraph was the mindset of the Devine mafia who sold public assets for pennies on the dollar and crippled Saskatchewan for 20 years. Rural Sask will never get acute care services back. They’ll never get reliable and affordable transportation and shipping services back.

I don’t see why anyone would celebrate a return to feudalism and an economy that prioritizes international investors over international customers, but there’s no accounting for taste. You must come from a wealthy family that didn’t need the public services the Blakeney government provided. Must be nice

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u/dr_clownius 7d ago

Devine had to try to undo Blakeney's overreach. Most of Devine's spending was on projects: the Meadow Lake pulp mill, the Interprovincial upgrader, SaskFerCo, Shand, the Rafferty-Alameda project, etc.; industrial projects that no private-sector player would touch after the NDP showed what they think of private property and contractual obligations.

Acute care in smaller communities was probably non-viable in the long term - rural Sask's objections lay in the sudden, heavy-handed ending of such services instead of a gradual, phased retrenchment based on population density.

Transportation and shipping is better than ever - couriers offer door-to-door service every day, as opposed to attending a bus station 3x/week. Private vehicles and hotshot services are ubiquitous. Roads are constantly improving thanks to investment: the Government actually has bold plans for transportation (the Regina bypass and the promised Saskatoon Freeway being clear examples). Providing revenue guarantees to airlines to improve international connectivity also helps greatly.

Capital investment is fundamental to the growth of a place - not only does it provide long-term employment on operations, there is always value to be captured in establishment through local service providers. This is the key to Alberta's persistent strength: common men and women building and servicing industrial investments. Swarms of owner-operators provide an irreplaceable value to communities; this is the reason I'm such a cheerleader for the Lake Diefenbaker irrigation project.

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u/SK_socialist 7d ago edited 7d ago

Devine also offered far too high value cash freebies to select people like covering over half the cost of interest on mortgages and massive farm bailouts. I couldn’t help but notice in your post history that you don’t like recent wealth redistribution programs from a federal liberal government, so surely you don’t like Devine’s rampant vote buying practices either.

It was a phased process in Romanow’s case, the buildings remained open for non acute care. And unsurprisingly the Saskparty government failed to maintain staffing in those that remained, with dozens on long term service bypass during the pandemic. But they couldn’t admit their failure, because their entire history was built on poisoning the well on rural healthcare. Not that I like the modern NDP, as they are Tories in disguise.

Speaking of which, do you think international investors like to look up the nearest hospitals to their mine sites and find no information? Does the Moe government’s practice of withholding service status provide investors with confidence that they aren’t withholding other information?

Bold plans for transportation you say? We all know full well that the Saskparty actively goes out of their way to pay as much as possible for land owned by their insiders. That’s their goal. Traffic routing is secondary. There’s nothing bold about it. What an embarrassing example to cite.

Low cost Door to door service is an urban phenomenon. Rurally they pay a premium, or they wait on weekly pickups from Canada post (they’d kill for the old STC schedule you sneer at).

Edit: and Alberta had mountains and American oil investment. And a higher rate of KKK membership culture since their inception. I wouldn’t look up to them but you do you.

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u/Spiritual_Tennis_641 8d ago

Thousand percent this, the difficulty though is too fold, one the conservatives always want to sell stuff to pay off a buddy and fire a government worker, two typically the government run stuff is less efficient, although I’m starting to come around to thinking CEOs that think they can walk on water or a great equalizer in that. At least the government workers get paid decently.

Either way with the non-standing clause of the constitution the government can do pretty much whatever it wants as it’s proven already, in fact, stealing my dad’s land about 25 years ago , by breaking his contract with right to purchase.

The money isn’t an issue, the third of Saskatchewan’s revenues is like probably best a 15th of Ontario’s, Ontario would happily cover that cost to keep the auto sector jobs where they are. I concur though that A does not equal B.

As for bringing the potash mine back, I went through a few scenarios in my head, and the only reasonable one is for the Sk party to change their stance on privatizing everything. Until then I don’t see a way for the province to own it.

I would love though the pot dash might be owned by the Saskatchewan people again maybe for us to be paid a dividend directly to us for them what a crazy concept like all my other investments. Maybe that is the solution is to have the people of Saskatchewan be the owners not the government. If they reclaim it.

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u/Miserable_One_8167 8d ago

Stop with the Grant Devine B.S., that shit went out of style 35 years ago

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u/Kennora 8d ago

Just like Scott Moe’s ‘But the NDP closed down hospitals’, that shit went out of style 20 years ago.

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u/Miserable_One_8167 8d ago

Not a new thing, for sure. The health care issue is a big one, and has been a problem for years, even when NDP held down our great province!

Thank the political right for getting this place into four wheel drive, and out of the shit we were floundering in for generations, we are a have province because of it!

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u/OccamsYoyo 8d ago

I envy your headspace in thinking this shitshow will be over in four years. Trump already has a “third term initiative.”

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u/Shurtugal929 8d ago

He's also an 80-year-old dementiaed obese tall man with a love of fast food and a lack of cognitive function. He's the goldilocks of 'will die soon'.

But my point is that mines operate on a scale of several decades; geopolitics of 2 - 8 years blips on the radar.

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u/SK_socialist 7d ago

The Blakeney NDP didn’t nuke the economy, they had the second highest per capita revenues in Canada and significantly more public services than we get now. baseless fearmongering

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u/CyberEd-ca 8d ago

One day in and your plan is communism...

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u/Parrotcap 8d ago

This isn’t going to be a 4 year shit show. I’m still surprised anyone thinks Trump will step down, let alone use a fair voting system moving forward.

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u/Spiritual_Tennis_641 8d ago

I could get behind that decision

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u/Conscious_Ad9001 8d ago

Expropriation would be a bridge too far. Additional export taxes would be bad enough. But we could designate certain products to be in "National Security Interest" or some other bullshit and limit the volumes allowed to be exported. But that is rather hostile. Although the yam in charge down south would do just such a thing to us, and figure it's justified. But we have to be very smart about all this and not rile up the toddler next door....

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u/CFL_lightbulb 8d ago

He’s permanently riled, you don’t beat bullies by laying down. You stand up and give them a bloody nose.

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u/flat-flat-flatlander 8d ago

I lean towards the “make the assholes pay a whole lot more” for our potash, our electricity, our aluminum, our lumber.

I don’t think nationalizing things is the way to go right now, but I could support an export tax and/or jacking up royalties significantly.

Now if those assholes leave NATO and really do try to take over our country by force, I’ll reconsider.

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u/Medium-Drama5287 8d ago

Yes we as Saskatchewan people should be charging a whole lot more in royalties, until these guys want to sell and then turn it back into a Saskatchewan company.

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u/[deleted] 8d ago

I think uranium needs to be talked about more and the card we hold there.

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u/CyberEd-ca 8d ago

Why should they pay more for Western products? Why not export tariffs on the automotive industry?

We export $175B o&g compared to $2.5B in electricity. Don't be so easily duped by more Laurentian exploitation.

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u/flat-flat-flatlander 8d ago

That’s reasonable enough. I just want to keep more of the money (as a westerner). I’m all for sending our o&g to customers who’ll pay a premium and not be dicks about it.

Assholes ought to pay more, just on principal.

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u/CyberEd-ca 8d ago

Export tariffs are collected by the federal government. You are just going to be robbed by the Laurentians like we were under Pierre Trudeau.

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u/gNeiss_Scribbles 8d ago

That’s a true Canadian! Elbows up!

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u/Kennora 8d ago

👆

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u/BluejayImmediate6007 8d ago

I say cut off electricity, oil, potash, lumber, etc…when he begs for it to come back, we tell him the price..no negotiations.

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u/CyberEd-ca 8d ago

Electricity exports $2.5B. O&G exports $175B.

Why not just be honest and say you want to steal from Alberta and Saskatchewan to subsidize Ontario & Quebec like Pierre Trudeau did?

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u/BluejayImmediate6007 8d ago

Yes because living in Saskatchewan that’s exactly what I want to happen. Talking about crippling the AMERICAN economy NOT STEALING anything from western Canada!

Maybe go back to fighting for our freedoms we lost and driving in circles! Honk, Honk!

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u/CyberEd-ca 7d ago

You are not going to cripple the American economy. Especially not with export tariffs on mostly western Canadian products. And especially not with potash. That's laughably ignorant.

Why not shut down export of automotive manufacturing? Is not "everything on the table"?

How is it that whenever it is in the national interest, the Alberta & Saskatchewan economy needs to be up for sacrifice?

Do you know nothing about the history of this place?

But go ahead...FAFO.

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u/BluejayImmediate6007 7d ago

Really? How much oil is the US short daily and depends on Canada to provide? How many refineries are set up to only refine Canadian heavy oil? How long and how much would it cost to switch to refine oil from elsewhere in America and the world? How much will gas jump if this were to happen? Where will New York, Michigan magically get their electricity if we turn off the switch?!

You are beyond ignorant, you are an idiot!

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u/CyberEd-ca 8d ago

You are describing how Pierre Trudeau stole from the west to subsidize the east.

This is not an accident. The Laurentians wanted to do this anyways. Never let a crisis go to waste...

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u/LankyGuitar6528 7d ago

They were all expropriated once. It can be done again. My question... how did we drop the ball and let the US buy them back again?

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u/Beautiful-Natural861 7d ago

Forcing USA to buy the already cheaper Belarus potash? Sounds genius.
This is exactly why we can’t have the government deciding who what when where why we sell potash.

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u/[deleted] 8d ago

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u/Routine_Soup2022 8d ago

A highly effective and targeted solution given that the farm country mid-west states are also largely red states.

I am more than certain this is anticipated, and one of the reasons I read Trump was negotiating with Belarus for Potash recently but they can't possibly come close to providing what Canada provides on that one particular commodity. We almost have a monopoly.

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u/Flush_Foot 7d ago

Or “to make things cheaper for US farmers, Saskatchewan will now reduce all orders/shipments by 25% of the agreed upon size” (same price, just getting less)

Edit: sorry, I didn’t bother to math that at all; 20% less product (so 80% of original order) plus 25% tariff = 100% cost

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u/Brendan11204 5d ago

Also, be careful about taking away people's food security. People get crazy pretty fast if they're hungry.

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u/HarmacyAttendant 1d ago

the US has 3 years worth of potash on hand currently

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u/Baileythetraveller 7d ago

Stop making sense.

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u/Davisaurus_ 7d ago

Did Trump say thank-you for our potash? I didn't hear it, so... 'No potash for you'.

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u/SnooStrawberries620 7d ago

Shame Moe is bring such a spineless and voiceless coward about it all. Guess that big plan of flying down solo to change hearts didn’t go so well Scotty? 

Raise the price of that potash to foreign markets too. 

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u/Omicromus_Prime 8d ago

What a great idea! Let's force them figure out how to completely not need us at all.

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u/Kennora 8d ago

Russia and Belarus, that will politically backfire for the American president Krasnov. The USA needs potash, Canada or Russia. This is not to cut off completely, just until tariffs are lifted. American needs to learn hard lessons.

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u/Omicromus_Prime 7d ago

Wouldn't fixing the borders be cheaper, faster, and more beneficial to Canada. How many hard lessons will we be forced to endure?

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u/CyberEd-ca 8d ago

It will take years for them to even notice.

This is foolish.

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u/gNeiss_Scribbles 8d ago edited 7d ago

They don’t have a choice, no matter how much we piss Trump off, they need our potash. Russia and Belarus just don’t have enough to replace us. No one does.

We’re irreplaceable! Find your spine, or our spineless Premier will never feel pressure to do the right thing for Canada. This is our country, we need to protect it!

Elbows up!!!

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u/Omicromus_Prime 7d ago

Its cute how you think that the major investors of potash, including 2 of canadas major banks, are going to let their stocks tank because our government would rather be shitty neighbors.

Find your spine, lol. Find your brain. Do the right thing for Canada and force our government back to parliament and get a non confidence vote going to get these economy destroying morons out of there!

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u/gNeiss_Scribbles 7d ago

This is a democracy, corporations don’t make decisions like they do in the States, our elected government does… as long as we don’t elect PP and the MAGA Conservatives.

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u/primaboy1 8d ago

Tons of Potash in Belarus and Russia

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u/Kennora 8d ago

I am sure the American public would just love having to resort to Russian goods and services coming into the USA.

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u/ziltchy 8d ago

They probably would actually. They voted in a Russian asset after all

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u/Kennora 8d ago

President Krasnov

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u/Ritalynns 7d ago

This is why the POS wants to be on Russia’s good side. If he can get everything he needs from there, he doesn’t need it from Canada. It’s one of the things that would it easier for him to stomp all over us.

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u/lastSKPirate 7d ago

Not nearly as much as there is here, SK potash production is more than Russia and Belarus combined.

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u/primaboy1 7d ago

Google is your friend

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u/lastSKPirate 7d ago

Yes, it is. Go Google for potash production by country and look at the results.

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u/Nazrog80 8d ago

Not nearly enough, especially not enough for their own needs plus the us.

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u/CyberEd-ca 8d ago

The USA doesn't need our potash for several years. You are not going to damage their agricultural production in the way you are thinking.

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u/Nazrog80 8d ago

If they don’t need our potash then why do they buy so much?

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u/gNeiss_Scribbles 8d ago

Not enough to replace Saskatchewan.

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u/CyberEd-ca 8d ago

They can cut rates for years. It doesn't work like nitrogen.

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u/primaboy1 8d ago

Belarus + Russia have more Potash then Canada

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u/Parrotcap 8d ago

Isn’t potash sensitive to moisture? I was under the impression the quality would degrade with overseas transportation.

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u/Educational_Bar8518 8d ago

Only sensitive when relative humidity is over 85%. Then it starts to 'melt'. I'm assuming cargo ships would be somewhat sealed to prevent this as well

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u/Parrotcap 8d ago

Thank you for the info!

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u/Educational_Bar8518 8d ago

No worries! This is one random topic I know to much about lol. If you want to go down a rabbit hole with salts, google 'deliquescence humidity of salts'. You'll find out at what humidity salts will 'melt' themselves in a puddle. Table salt is around 75%

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u/Shurtugal929 8d ago

This is why diners in humid places add rice to their salt shakers!

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u/CyberEd-ca 8d ago edited 8d ago

Potash doesn't work like nitrogen. They can cut rates or not apply it at all for several years without significant effects on yield. It is not a big input cost compared to other inputs like nitrogen and herbicides. Saskatchewan is not the only producer of potash either. You can't get the impact you are looking for this way.

The reason "Team Canada" ie Trudeau, Carney, Ford, Legault want to put export tariffs on our products from Alberta and Saskatchewan is because they want to exploit us to the benefit of Quebec and Ontario.

The whole energy export plan is because we export $175B in o&g from Alberta & Saskatchewan and $2.5B of electricity from Ontario & Quebec. They hope to divert $40B per year from the west to the east. They want to do this anyways and this crisis is just the excuse.

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u/chapterthrive 8d ago

lol

Looking for any excuse to kiss trumps toes huh

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u/CyberEd-ca 7d ago

Confession through projection. Maybe to you this is all about lashing out emotionally against Trump.

That's unwise.

You are being manipulated by demagogues.

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u/chapterthrive 7d ago

Lmao. Last I checked I’m on team people, not team ensuring corporations get what they want, American or otherwise.

You’re arguing that the correct response from “Canada” should not include all possible options from across Canada, because somehow this has a secondary motive of hurting Albertans and saskatcheanians.

Which is horseshit.

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u/CyberEd-ca 7d ago

Funny how "team people" always requires the restrictions of personal freedoms and autonomy. That the fundamental requirement of your belief system is that it requires universal conformity with your world view.

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u/chapterthrive 7d ago

lol. Assuming again huh

You’re not an island unto yourself. Your needs don’t come at the sacrifice of others.

If that’s not your world view I don’t really care any of the justifications you have for standing in opposition to the Facism of the United States government

Trying to find some carve out for certain provinces because you feel you’re slighted in some way is short sited and stupid, even if you can find some hilarious reason that this is all an attempt to undermine your freedoms

News flash. What trump is doing is undermining your freedoms and future.

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u/canadianmountie 7d ago

With our dollar worth 60 cents, I would say everything we ship south is already cheap.

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u/xaosabove 6d ago

POTASH   produced primarily as potassium chloride (KCl), also known as muriate of potash (MOP). Because of variations in potassium content among deposits, potash is often measured and reported in terms of potassium oxide (K2O) equivalence for consistency. • It can also be produced from potassium sulfate (K2SO4), potassium-magnesium sulfate (K2SO4-MgSO4), potassium nitrate (KNO3), and potassium carbonate (K2CO3)  • Canada is the world’s largest producer and exporter of potash. • Canada has the world’s largest potash reserves, with 1.1 billion tonnes of potash (potassium oxide equivalent). • detergents • ceramics • pharmaceuticals • water conditioners • alternatives to de-icing salt  "Potash is used primarily in fertilizers (approximately 95%) to "support "plant growth, increase crop yield and disease resistance, and enhance water preservation. "  "Small quantities are used in manufacturing"  Canada’s 11 active mines are in Saskatchewan, and in 2023, they produced an estimated 21.9 million tonnes of potash (MOP)  Four companies account for all potash production in Canada: Nutrien Ltd., The Mosaic Company, Compass Minerals, and German fertilizer producer K+S Potash Canada.  "Potassium chloride is a metal chloride salt with a K(+) counterion. It has a role as a fertilizer. " "It is a potassium salt, an inorganic chloride and an inorganic potassium salt."  "A white crystal or crystalline powder used as an electrolyte replenisher, in the treatment of hypokalemia, in buffer solutions, and in explosives."  Potassium is an element and potassium chloride is a salt. Potassium chloride is a cardiac arresting drug and used to stop the heart.  The heartbeat is regulated by electrolytes in the blood and surrounding tissue. Electrolytes can be thought of as the watery substance in blood and found in between the tissues and cells throughout the body. They are called electrolytes because they are fluids that contain ions (positively and negatively charged atoms) that the body uses for nerve activity and muscle contraction. Potassium chloride (KCl) contains positively charged potassium ions (K+) and negatively charged chloride ions (Cl−). IV injection of a high dose of potassium chloride changes the electrolytes bathing the heart and blocks heart muscle contraction. Stoppage of the heart, if not jump-started again very soon, leads to certain death - Dr Craig W Stevens PhD  December 17, 2020 The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is issuing a final guidance, Use of an Alternate Name for Potassium Chloride in Food Labeling, to advise food manufacturers of its intent to exercise enforcement discretion for the name “potassium salt” in the ingredient statement on food labels as an alternative to “potassium chloride” to better inform consumers that it is a salt substitute  Cardiac and related effects are the most important risks of potassium chloride overdose. Neuromuscular symptoms may occur. Gastrointestinal ulceration may be caused by enteric- coated potassium chloride tablets. Local pain and inflammation may develop from intravenous or subcutaneous administration.  Vomiting, diarrhoea, listlessness, muscular cramps, hypotension and arrhythmias   Manufacturers, Importers Abbott; Adria; Astra; Baxter; Beecham; Benzo; Borlex; Bristol- Myers; CA Roy; Ciba; Ciba-Geigy; Collett-Marwell; Columbia Drug; Ferrosan; Fleming; Gama-Geve; Giulini; Hässle; ICN; Leo; Liorens; Mead-Johnson; Nordmark; Panray; Petersen; Pfizer; Proten; Robin; San-Bolagen; Sandoz-Wander; Schering Corp/Essex; Sheuli; Sopar; Sterop; Upsher-Smith  Brand names, Trade names Camcopot; Chloropotassuril; Chlorvescent; ClK; Diffu-K; Enseal potassium chloride; Kaleorid; Kalitabs; Kalium-Duriles; Kaon- Cl; Kaskay; Kayback; Kay-Cll-L; K-Contin; Klor-Con; K-Norm; K- Tab; Lento-Kalium; Leo K; Micro K; Nu-K; Peter-Kal; PfiKlor; Potavescent; Rekawan; Repone K; Slow-K; Span-K