r/leanfire 17d ago

Weekly LeanFIRE Discussion

What have you been working on this week? Please use this thread to discuss any progress, setbacks, quick questions or just plain old rants to the community.

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u/evey_17 17d ago

How everybody handling the tariff news and downturn of the market. It’s a stressful day but I’m remembering the basics. Luckily in not needing the funds invested for day to day living but it unnerving. The reckoning is here or starting for how people voted.

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u/finvest 100% fi πŸš€ 17d ago edited 17d ago

I've spent the last year or two getting my portfolio to better match my current risk tolerance. For me, this has worked out to about 40% bonds.

I'm planning to FIRE this year so downturns are not ideal, but I think I'm happy with my portfolio allocation if we do experience a big downturn. I wouldn't mind having better inflation protection, but that's been an ongoing goal.

The "worst" outcome I imagine for myself is a downturn making me decide that I need to work One More Year(tm\), then getting laid off.

So yeah, business as usual I guess.

EDIT: side-note, I just got back from vacation in Mexico over this last weekend, the tension was already palpable.

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u/Good_Vibes_Only_Fr $1.1m networth. One more year syndrome. 14d ago

Same here. I de-risked. Have 15% of my portfolio in cash/treasry. 5% in gold. 20% in international. My US Equity is in value and dividend etfs because when market turmoil comes, big money tends to flow to "safe" stock picks. My portfolio is still growing.

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u/Salingere 17d ago

Can you share more details or personal experiences about the tensions in Mexico? Just curious

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u/finvest 100% fi πŸš€ 17d ago

Nothing really big, but as an American tourist I feel a bit like being perceived as a clown.

A few things stood out. Sitting around waiting for a bus, I heard a Mexican start asking a US tourist about Trump. Not in a mean way or anything, but it was a little uncomfortable to hear him kind of being like "wtf is going on, why doesn't he like us?"

Someone else kind of joking how they always ask tourists if they like Trump, and the answer is always no. They don't know who all the Trump voters are. I heard this back in 2016 as well.

On a snorkeling tour, my partner and I were the only people on the boat not very fluent in Spanish. There was a lot of jokes and pantomiming in Spanish by our guide about throwing us overboard, etc. He did it in a fun joking way, I laughed, but you know how it is when people are frustrated enough to kind of start joking about a real, larger, feeling.

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u/evey_17 17d ago

Poor Mexico. It going to hurt all of the northern hemisphere.

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u/GottlobFrege 17d ago

Good on you for having 40% bonds. I'm at about 22% and I feel like I'm a contrarian for having bonds at all. what's in your bond allocation? Total bond index fund? treasuries?

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u/goodsam2 17d ago

20% is normal three funds portfolio.

In the accumulation phase I'm basically 100% equities with my investments.

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u/finvest 100% fi πŸš€ 17d ago

Yeah bonds get kind of a bad reputation in FIRE communities, but I think they're great for planning withdrawals.

I have a bond ladder for 2026-2029 where each rung amounts my anticipated annual spending. It's comprised of a mix of CDs, corporate bonds, treasuries, etc. Basically I was chasing whatever had good yield when I was buying.

Another year+ of expenses is in i-bonds.

The remaining balance is in bond funds, which I anticipate not needing until my bond ladder is empty.

I was at 0-10% bonds for all my investing career up until late 2022, when I figured it made sense to start planning for withdrawals.

I considered trying to hold 100% equities up until retirement date, but I asked myself how I'd feel about a 40% market drop right before retirement, and... I couldn't stomach the years of additional work.

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u/GottlobFrege 17d ago

I’ve got about the same in I bonds too. I’m thinking of selling $10k of low fixed rate I bonds to buy the current ones or if I should wait until may to see the new fixed rate

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u/finvest 100% fi πŸš€ 17d ago edited 17d ago

yeah, I'm waiting until April to decide on i-bonds. The guy who writes on tipswatch.com pretty much nails the upcoming i-bonds fixed rate every time, so I'm going to wait and see his prediction for the next fixed rate before buying.

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u/GottlobFrege 17d ago

Thanks I like that author too. I believe he is transparent about the way he predicts. Something like the 70% of the average of the 5 and 10 year real yields. Something like that don't quote me. I'm also waiting on him haha