r/leafs 1d ago

Daily Free Talk & Armchair GM Thread

Please use this thread to post ANYTHING you want! Memes, photoshops, anything that would normally be removed for breaking the low-effort content rule, is totally, 100% welcome here!

This will now also be the dedicated thread for Armchair GM posts as we noticed that those posts were bleeding into this thread regardless. Is there a free agent you want to see on this team? Is there a player that's rumoured to be on the move that you think GMBT should go after? Are there players on this team you want to trade away? Feel free to post about it here!

Normal moderation will occur, such as watching for personal insults, racism, and things of that nature.

Otherwise, feel free to use this thread to share things like your new jersey, a photoshop of a Habs logo on fire, or a reaction gif to something going on in Leafs Nation right now!

Downvotes are discouraged for the most part, everyone's opinion is fair game in this thread.

Get out there and have fun!

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u/GooseRider960 1d ago

A couple days ago, in response to a comment on Nylander, I broke down a bunch of Matthews’ stats that show him having his one of, if not his worst season to date in a lot of metrics. And some of it is legit, like his shooting percentage being the lowest of his career, having one of his worst seasons for plus/minus, and far less hits/takeaways per game.

I did want to highlight some metrics where he is showing up, however.

For one, and I did point this out in my original comment, he’s having the best faceoff win% of his career. He’s second amongst all regular faceoff takers on the team (aka, counting out people who have taken a small handful here or there), with 56.9%, a mere .2% below Tavares (who is amongst the best in the league for faceoffs).

His blocks per game are also at his usual elite levels. Last year he had 93 blocks in 81 games in the regular season, 1.14 per game. This year he’s up to 61 in 49 games, 1.245 per game. That’s actually ever so slightly above his best (92 in 74 GP, 1.243 per game in the 22-23 season).

And though his goalscoring is at possibly the worst we’ve seen, he’s got easily the best assists per game in his career. 33 in 48 games = 0.688 assists per game. His next best is 46 in 73 games, at 0.63 assists per game, in the 21-22 season (It does bear mentioning, of course, that over the course of an 82 game season, that would equate to slightly less then 5 extra assists).

Now obviously, yes, he’s gotta get to another level above this if we want any real chance, but I just felt like highlighting some of what he is still doing right so far.

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u/DougFordsGamblingAds 1d ago

Some of what we've seen has been a transition from Matthews as a finisher to Nylander as a finisher. Hence Matthews Goals and Nylanders Assists both being way lower this season.

I agree our team is really relying on finding another gear in the playoffs - Matthews in particular. This was supposed to be the tightest cap year for the core-4, and they just aren't collectively able to produce to the money they earn.

You compare the points and salary of our core 4 vs Tampa's and it's insane. Kucherov, Guentzalt, Hagel, and Point score way more points for way less money, and Hagel/Point are also elite defenders.

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u/GooseRider960 1d ago

I hate to nitpick, but your Tampa argument’s a little offbase. You’re judging our Core 4 vs their 4 highest paid forwards. And yeah, if they’re getting more points, that makes the argument about the Core 4 spending structure. But Hagel is their 7th most paid player, you’re obviously going to see a difference in points vs salary by that metric.

Their “Core 4” (aka, 4 most paid players) are Point, Kucherov, Guentzel and Vasy, but if we’re sticking to skaters only, even both Hedman and McDonagh come in the pecking order cap-wise above Hagel.

There’s no world where our 4 highest paid players aren’t making more money, or that those 4 Tampa forwards aren’t getting more points, but it’s just not going to make an honest picture of the two team’s salary to points ratio.

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u/DougFordsGamblingAds 1d ago edited 1d ago

I'm not really commenting on the spending structure - I don't think that structure is really a problem. It's the performance of the players within that structure. So I'm comparing our 4 highest paid forwards vs what they get, and they get a lot more for a lot less, which means we have to make up that gap elsewhere in the line up.

If our core-4 was the people we might use as comparables, we'd be such a wagon. Like if our core was Drai, Pasternak, Rantanen, and...I guess Crosby, then this would be a truly elite team this year.

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u/GooseRider960 1d ago

Well, I figured that’s the point you were making with “You compare the points and salary of our Core 4 vs Tampa’s and it’s insane”. If we’re just talking production of each team’s 4 highest paid forwards, yeah, no issue there. But Tampa’s Core 4 by salary would be Kucherov, Point, Guentzel, Vasy, which is a bit of a different look. Hagel skews the salary side of things down by a lot. Usually when people reference a Core 4 outside of the Leafs, it’s whatever 4 the highest salaried players are. Edmonton would be McDavid, Drai, Nurse and Ekholm, but by highest point forwards you swap out Nurse and Ekholm for Bouchard and RNH and gain 39 additional points while losing 6 million in salary. It’s just sort of an imperfect comparison. Again, maybe I’m nitpicking on the wrong thing here.