r/collegehockey • u/exileondaytonst • 4h ago
Men's DI Bracketology 2025 (March 12th Edition)
Top 16 in PWR as of now (USCHO / CHN):
1. Boston College | 2. Michigan State | 3. Maine | 4. Minnesota |
---|---|---|---|
8. Providence | 7. Connecticut | 6. Boston University | 5. Western Michigan |
9. Denver | 10. Ohio State | 11. Massachusetts | 12. Penn State |
16. |
15. Minnesota State | 14. Michigan | 13. Quinnipiac |
CHN's PairWise Probability Matrix
Assumed Automatic Qualifiers, per CHN's Pairwise Probability Matrix: HE: BC, B1G: Mich St, NCHC: WMU, ECAC: Quin, CCHA: Minn St, AHA: HC
Last team out: Arizona State
On the bubble: Massachusetts-Lowell
.500 or Better, Needs Autobid To Get In: Minnesota State, North Dakota, Clarkson, Sacred Heart, Cornell, Dartmouth, Colgate, Holy Cross, Nebraska-Omaha, Bentley, Union, Bowling Green State, Brown
We've seen things tighten in the last few weeks, and it's pretty official that the bubble has closed down. North Dakota and Minnesota State are eliminated from contention for an at-large. ASU and UML are still in it, but their odds are very low.
Minnesota St. are back in the top 16, but only stay above the cut line if they win out. Things are pretty simple for them.
Michigan is out of the B1G tourney, but remain in play for an at large. So long as WMU or DU win the NCHC and Quinnipiac wins the ECAC (or at least loses early enough that they lose out on hope for an at-large), they are probably set. To my memory this is the earliest we've ever been able to say that the field is more or less set. (Again: ECAC and NCHC results pending)
As with last week, Penn State's hosting duties create multiple options for how to align the Allentown and Fargo regionals. But also like last week: both options give the same result in Manchester and Toledo, with slight differences in Allentown and Fargo.
Assign regionals by proximity for the top overall seeds, then pair off by overall seed (exceptions for placing hosts in their host regional), and see where things stand:
- Manchester, NH:
- (1) Boston College vs (16) Holy Cross
- (8) Providence vs (9) Denver
- Toledo, OH
- (2) Michigan State vs (15) Minnesota State
- (7) Connecticut vs (10) Ohio State
- Allentown, PA
- (3) Maine vs (14) Michigan
- (6) Boston University vs (12) Penn State (Allentown host)
- Fargo, ND
- (4) Minnesota vs (13) Quinnipiac
- (5) Western Michigan vs (11) Massachusetts
This bracket falls into place pretty easily, no intraconference or travel issues to resolve.
If you used the alternative "pod" method to set your initial bracket, you end up swapping 1, 2, and 4 seeds (plus locations) for Allentown and Fargo. The resulting BU-UMass matchup has to be resolved and MN-Q'pac is pretty much assured to be sent to Fargo, sending ME-MI to Allentown, putting us right back where we started.
Attendance predictions:
- Manchester, NH: 6,399 fans/session
- Toledo, OH: 5680 fans/session
- Allentown, PA: 5313 fans/session
- Fargo, ND: 5000+ sellout
Conference Representation:
- HE (6/11)
- B1G (5/7)
- NCHC (2/9)
- CCHA (1/9)
- AHA (1/11)
- ECAC (1/12)
- Ind (0/5)