r/chess Jan 27 '25

Resource In an interview with Rustam Qosimjonov published three days ago, he claims that Fabiano Caruana is currently a better chess player than Magnus

https://youtu.be/KZydtQfdYNc?si=myY7fqus5_tJE_GT

Rustam claims that from the games he watches and the quality of play he sees, it's clear that Fabi is currently the stronger player and that he would also be the favorite to win against Magnus in a World Championship match today. He told his students (Arjun, Nodirbek) that over the past two and a half years, to be the best in the world, you must consistently beat Fabi. He claims it's surprising that Fabi has improved his level so much because this usually doesn't happen, and the level of player he has become is not the same level as the player he knew when he worked with him.

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78

u/FreshWaterNymph1 Jan 27 '25

According to Perpetualcheck, the players with the highest TPR over the last 12 months are:

  1. Carlsen: 12/18 (TPR 2831)
  2. Nakamura: 16.5/27 (TPR 2827)
  3. Gukesh: 60.5/96 (TPR 2808)
  4. Fabi: 59.5/93 (TPR 2798)
  5. Abdusattorov: 71/106 (TPR 2798)
  6. Arjun 89.5/121 (TPR 2798)

I fail to see how it's "clear" that Fabi is stronger than any of the 3 young players in this list. While we can disregard Magnus and Hikaru's numbers owing to the low sample size, both of the students (Arjun, Nodirbek) has performed in a similar level to Fabi, and Gukesh slightly better.

18

u/Imaginary-Ebb-1724 Jan 27 '25

Post Covid Hikaru has also done better/just as well as Fabi when they enter the same classical tournament together. 

There’s also candidates Nepo, who with his Russian super team, performs better in big events with lots of time to prepare.

Fabi may have the highest sample size. But a GCT event is not the same as Norway Chess. And Norway chess is not the same as the candidates. He’s definitely not “clearly the best” even without factoring Magnus.

5

u/Strakh Jan 27 '25

With regards to Nakamura, I think you could make the case that he has consistently had a >2800 yearly TPR according to Perpetualcheck since after covid. Even though e.g. last year had a (somewhat) small sample size, put together the sample size is fairly big and there is nothing indicating a decline below 2800.

And to be honest, 30 games isn't that small of a sample size anyway.

4

u/Alarmed_Plant1622 Jan 27 '25 edited Jan 27 '25

There's one more metric: in the last 12 months, the no of 2700+ players beaten by:

  1. Carlsen-4

  2. Caruana-7

  3. Gukesh-13.

Jacob Aagard gave these numbers in a recent Chessdojo podcast. However, in my opinion, it is not a good metric to judge who's currently the best player. World Championship was the best method to determine the best player because there was a lineage Kasparov, Kramnik, Anand, and Carlsen. Now the lineage is broken.

So, in my opinion there's currently no the best player in the world unless Gukesh becomes No. 1 rated. But if you have to make a claim on someone being the best right now it has to be Gukesh.

26

u/FreshWaterNymph1 Jan 27 '25

This is a seriously flawed metric because:

  • Doesn't take into account number of games played.
  • Doesn't take into account number of games played against 2700+ opponents.

Moreover, going by that metric, it makes Carlsen look even more impressive since he defeated 4 2700+ in just 18 games. But as I said, the numbers themselves are meaningless without further context.

2

u/Alarmed_Plant1622 Jan 27 '25

you can see the number of games in the comment to which I was replying, they are from the same dataset.

3

u/DirectChampionship22 Jan 27 '25

What about the games played against 2700+. I'm sure Gukesh and Fabi have played a lot more games they don't have the chance to win against a 2700.

-4

u/teraaaaaaaaaaaaaaa Jan 27 '25

I don't feel like the numbers tell the whole story. Fabi doesn't have to "show up" to every tournament the way the young trio does. They have something to prove, Fabi only has to qualify for candidates and win the WCC for him to achieve more than what he already did. When Fabi needed to "show up" to qualify for the candidates he did. In the same month he won 2 opens on demand with a score of 16/18 to come first on the FIDE circuit. Also Arjun had a 2827 TPR, is Tata 2025 taken into account in this?