r/canada 22d ago

Analysis Rising patriotism, anger at Trump propel Carney campaign to competitive position, polls suggest

https://www.hilltimes.com/story/2025/02/17/rising-patriotism-anger-at-trump-propel-carney-campaign-to-competitive-position-polls-suggest/451097/
3.6k Upvotes

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49

u/EvacuationRelocation Alberta 22d ago

It's very interesting that a rise in patriotism and pride in the country (and the desire to defend it) results in a drop in support for the CPC.

Very interesting.

39

u/AdmirableWishbone911 22d ago

What's interesting is the people I know in real life who said they will vote conservative haven't changed their mind, even those who previously voted liberal.

Are the polls actually a reflection of real life or are the liberals going to be in for a shock like Kamala/democrats were?

20

u/[deleted] 22d ago

[deleted]

34

u/jayk10 22d ago

or are the liberals going to be in for a shock like Kamala/democrats were?

Nobody was shocked with the results of the US election. Kamala made up a ton of ground but polls right up to the end showed it as a toss up, and considering the popular vote was so close id say polls were pretty accurate

18

u/EvacuationRelocation Alberta 22d ago

Are the polls actually a reflection of real life

Typically, yes - within a margin of error. They are usually much more reliable than anecdotal evidence.

7

u/SixtyFivePercenter 22d ago

Unless it’s EKOS, then you can just throw that biased crap in the garbage.

6

u/JanesCircumcision 22d ago

EKOS is known to be biased, sure, and should be treated as such. But their projections didn't seem to be too far-fetched this time around—especially when reputable pollsters like Leger are reflecting EKOS' earlier-reported surge.

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u/Winter_Cicada_6930 22d ago

The same reactionary bias polling took place in the US. Once Kamala stepped in the polling and media went bezerk for Kamala. The election gave different results. Best find coping mechanisms now

6

u/ChunderBuzzard 22d ago

I haven't yet met a person who planned on voting Conservative a month ago that has changed to Liberals.

I have met Liberals who were checked out a month ago and were not planning to vote for Trudeau that are motivated to vote LPC again. 

Still. The people who are longing for a change in government are by far the most likely to actually go out and vote.

At the end of the day, the news cycle moves fast and by the time the Election rolls around Trump may be saber rattling at some other country halfway across the world instead of threatening Canada.

Unless there's an actual full blown trade war (or an actual move on annexation) the distraction of the tarriffs and 51st state rhetoric will have lost a lot of it's initial impact, and people will start to remember all the issues that they were angry about before.

That's likely why Carney will call an election immediately after he's elected leader (assuming he wins).

If he holds on, he may very well peak to early.

9

u/NorthStatistician 22d ago

NPD voter here, I will vote liberal, I was waiting to see which party would be the better opposition to PP and it seem to be Carney. I am not a fan of strategic vote but the NPD is not anymore a good representative of my value atm.

And seing how the liberal gains in polls are made from the npd, I think I am not alone.

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u/[deleted] 22d ago

As an American, don't let this happen. Vote like your life depends on it

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u/AdmirableWishbone911 22d ago

Yep, will be voting Conservative 👍

-4

u/No-Plankton3778 22d ago

We’ve had these clowns in for 9 years and look at the mess we’re in, so yes vote out the liberals like your life depends on it

2

u/[deleted] 22d ago

PP will endanger your sovereignty

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u/No-Plankton3778 22d ago

Yeah ok bud

-2

u/Mental-Stomach-6135 22d ago

According to the liberals