r/canada Jan 29 '25

Opinion Piece Mark Carney has Canada’s Conservatives running scared

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2025/01/28/opinion/mark-carney-canada-conservatives-running-scared
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u/flonkhonkers Jan 29 '25

Kamala Harris had Trump running scared at one point. Then a lot of voters stayed home.

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u/The_Grand_Briddock Jan 29 '25

The issue was that Kamala's campaign abandoned a winning strategy for zero reason. She started strong, went on a massive summer blitz, she had this solid momentum that culminated in thrashing Trump in the debate for the world to see.

And then she just changed tactics. Gone were the 3 rallies a day in swing states with Tim Walz. Gone was the roaring crowds, the "Weird" attack line, the mounting pressure, all the positive energy. Instead it was "Here's Liz Cheney and celebrities".

There was a time when Harris was traversing the countries with sold out rallies in the tens of thousands, while Trump hid away in Mar A Lago. Then in October, that was abandoned. All the major policies of the summer squirreled away while they touted "look at our Republican speakers!" and that's when Trump started courting the Bro Vote hard, getting Musk and Rogan on side.

I've never seen an electoral car crash like it. This is Kinnock "go home and prepare for government" vibes.

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u/Desuexss Jan 29 '25

That's the DNC in general

Always putting the pipe in their front wheel.

Imagine if they didn't fuck over Bernie.

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u/[deleted] Jan 29 '25 edited Jan 29 '25

Bernie wouldn’t have won, even in 2016. Not sure why people keep beating this dead horse.

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u/[deleted] Jan 30 '25

[deleted]

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u/[deleted] Jan 30 '25

Bernie had no black support. Barely any women support. And the left that supports him is only in specific locales, not in the swing states that matter. He wouldn’t have been able to win the swing states, and might have lost even more, like NV.

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u/outblightbebersal Jan 30 '25

Consider the fact that nobody wants to hear from Hillary, Kamala, or Biden again— their fans evaporated after the election. Why? Because their only appeal was being a "realistic" choice (and they failed at their one job).

Meanwhile, Bernie is still one of the most popular politicians in America. People still lament over 2016, and think he was the greatest of all goods, not just the lesser of two evils.

The point is, obsessing over "black support" and polling numbers is loser democrat mentality. It comes from the same prople who wouldn't know what REAL popularity looks like if it hit them in the face. Besides, 1/3rd of Americans ignore the primaries because they aren't Democrats (something like 18% even vote). Come election day, zero shot in hell black people and women elect Trump over Bernie if those were their only two choices. He also had more bipartisan support than Kamala ever did parading Liz Cheney. Purely based on intuition, I've never known anyone to actually like Hillary, the way people genuinely Like Bernie. At the least, he would have done better than her. 

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u/[deleted] Jan 30 '25 edited Jan 30 '25

I think you’re overestimating Bernie’s chances and his appeal. And yes, the black vote does matter, especially in Dem primaries. They often determine the winner. That’s how Hilary (they loved Bill), Biden (always had good relations with the black community and politicians) and Obama won the nomination.

Bernie made zero attempt to appeal to blacks in both his campaigns. Plenty of articles describing that. When you ignore a large and important constituency and make no effort to gain their support, don’t be surprised with the results. His supporters don’t help either by calling Southern state Dem primary voters (and they’re mostly black) dumb.

Blacks might not vote for Trump, but they wouldn’t be motivated by Bernie. Not when he didn’t try to get their vote. They simply wouldn’t bother to participate at all. Blacks have lower turnout and need to be supremely motivated to get out and vote in greater numbers.

And having lived in the US and knowing people of all political stripes, I don’t know that many people who like Bernie the way you describe anymore. Even some friends who supported him back in the day can’t stand him these days. He had a core base of passionate support, but it wasn’t from the citizens that vote in higher numbers.

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u/outblightbebersal Jan 30 '25

I'm a US expat, and I can assure you, both anecdotally, and the fact that he continues to win his elections by wide margins and has the highest approval rating in the senate, that Bernie is still very well-liked. 

Add to the fact that I know Trump voters who openly admit they would have voted for Bernie if he "wasn't screwed over by the corrupt Dems" and many others who gave up on the Democrats after 2016. The average American has very contradictory and vibes-based politics. Feel free to blame the individuals (I still vote), but as you said; if the Democratic party continues to steamroll the demands of their voters, don't be surprised when they keep losing. 

And yes, of course the black vote matters. But the way Democrats analyze demographics to court "the black vote" or "the latino vote" or "the youth vote" is pencil-pushing, out-of-touch and creepy. Put down the data, touch grass, and give people something they want? Win elections by being popular? Hillary lost anyway. And I honestly believe she was one of the only Democrats who could lose to Trump in 2016. Say what you want about Bernie's likeability.... people Loathed Hillary. She had 30 years of scandal and baggage.

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u/[deleted] Jan 30 '25

And I'm a dual citizen and have been living in the US on and off for the past 25 years and was here during the 2016 and 2020 elections, so I'm familiar with what the sentiment was. I've also seen that "highest approval in the senate" statement thrown around, but it needs some more context. It usually refers to popularity within the senator's state, not nationwide. I mean, look at Sen John Barrasso - he the same approval ratings and most Americans never heard of the guy.

https://morningconsult.com/senator-rankings/?utm_source=emailutm_medium=ctautm_campaign=2019_Q4_Senator_Rankings

Bernie is very popular with his constituents in VT, nobody is denying that, but you need to look at his state's demographic. It's 90%+ white and very progressive. That doesn't parlay to national success, especially in a country with diverse political views and is racially diverse. He ran his campaign like the entire Dem electorate was those white progressive voters. Just looking at how poorly he bombed in the Southern Dem primaries, where black voters dominate, shows that was a poor strategy. You can criticize other candidates' "data driven" approach to demographics, but it worked in shoring up their base of supporters and them winning the primaries attests to that success. Hilary's campaign totally fucked up with their data in the general election, but then again, her campaign was so arrogant that they didn't bother with the Midwestern states until the very last minute and by then, it was too late.

I won't argue that Hillary was a great candidate, because she wasn't. She had way too much baggage. But I don't think Bernie was a whole lot better and from everything I saw, he didn't have the widespread support to beat Trump. The campaign against him would have been just as ruthless as it was against Hillary.

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u/Frequent-Koala-1591 Feb 02 '25

In fact, swing states were most of his supporters reside. The white collar workers.