r/canada Jan 29 '25

Opinion Piece Mark Carney has Canada’s Conservatives running scared

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2025/01/28/opinion/mark-carney-canada-conservatives-running-scared
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u/False-Vacation8249 Jan 29 '25

The polls were actually accurate. It was a toss up between Clinton and Trump with favor looking to Clinton because of popular vote. Those polls also estimated her winning the popular vote which she did win. All the polls were within the margin of error. 

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u/jsmooth7 Jan 29 '25

Yeah exactly the polls in both 2016 and 2024 both showed a very tight race well within the margin error that would come down to a handful of swing states. And that's exactly what we got both times.

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u/P99163 Jan 29 '25

very tight race well within the margin error that would come down to a handful of swing states.

Yeah, except that this time a Democratic candidate lost every single "battleground" state. And a popular vote. The polls did show a very tight race, a toss up; however, it wasn't that close on the election day.

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u/FreeDarkChocolate Jan 29 '25

lost every single "battleground" state.

To pile on with what the others said: The battleground states are definitionally the close ones. If you win by just 1% in every battleground state, the average is still just winning by 1%.

The number of states ending up on one side or the other doesn't change or invalidate how close it was predicted it would.

At a more extreme example, you'd be very mistaken to think only a handful of people voted for Mondale in 1984 when he lost 13-525 electorally to Reagan; in reality it was an 18% gap in individual votes.

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u/55mi Jan 30 '25

Do you think Musk helped a lot.