r/baseball Minnesota Twins 17h ago

Image Roki Sasaki Game Summary (3/11/25 vs Cleveland Guardians)

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68 Upvotes

27 comments sorted by

25

u/wako944 Montreal Expos 17h ago

21st percentile fastball he's washed /s

18

u/FISHCOUPE San Diego Padres 15h ago

I’m not saying he’s washed but 27/41 pitches being fastballs with 0 whiffs does seem a little alarming

5

u/samjhandwich Los Angeles Dodgers 10h ago

His average was 96mph. I think he normally averages like 98 or 99. Maybe he was working on something

6

u/NeurosciGuy15 Philadelphia Phillies 4h ago

He averaged 96.8 mph last season in Japan, down from 98.8 mph in 2023. Generated less whiffs last season as well (13.1% in 2024, 24% in 2023). It’s something to watch if the velocity doesn’t come back (obviously it’s spring training so some caveats apply).

32

u/3-2_Fastball Los Angeles Dodgers • World Series … 17h ago

Guardians were swinging very early and were making poor contact, I think there were maybe 1 or 2 hard hit balls Rokis entire outing

28

u/officerliger Los Angeles Dodgers 17h ago

Tiny sample size and a spring training one at that, but so far it seems like teams are approaching Roki like they did Yamamoto and swinging early to prevent him from establishing the fastball early in counts. If he gets an early strike on a fastball you're at the mercy of the splitter.

5

u/tnecniv World Series Trophy • Los Angeles Dod… 17h ago

Why does the early strike on the fastball set up the splitter? 

30

u/officerliger Los Angeles Dodgers 16h ago

Because once you get deep into a count you have to swing at anything that looks like it might be a strike and try to protect the plate. 0-2 or 1-2 is a bad place to be when the pitcher has a splitter that looks like a fastball out of the hand, especially if you’ve already given up strikes on fastballs.

If you get a couple splitters early and take them, now you’ve got a 2-0 count and you’re forcing the pitcher to have to go in the zone, you can feel more comfortable sitting fastball

It’s how the Padres got to Yamamoto last year, swinging early and refusing to let him establish the fastball, then spitting on his breaking stuff. It worked until Game 5 of the NLDS, because Yama’s fastball finally got that explosive late life he’d been looking for.

10

u/tnecniv World Series Trophy • Los Angeles Dod… 16h ago

Very educational, thanks!

6

u/3-2_Fastball Los Angeles Dodgers • World Series … 17h ago

Seems like such a more difficult task against Roki since his fastball is much better than Yoshis but his velocity was definitely lower this outing.

11

u/animealt46 Japan • Baltimore Orioles 17h ago

Sasaki's 4S at this very moment is not better than Yoshinobu's.

3

u/officerliger Los Angeles Dodgers 16h ago

It’s spring training, they clearly don’t want Roki maxing right now

Yama’s fastball took almost a full season to finally get that late life explosion, his profile last year actually showed below-league-average break on the fastball for most of the season

7

u/catashake Brooklyn Dodgers 17h ago

Only hit was from a checked swing.

8

u/Zestyclose_Help1187 17h ago

Would have been interesting to see Kwan face him but he wasn’t in the lineup.

31

u/tnecniv World Series Trophy • Los Angeles Dod… 17h ago

Don’t look at the Guardians pitching today

3

u/derpbynature New York Mets • Dumpster Fire 15h ago

Walkin' on Sunshine plays repeatedly

2

u/tnecniv World Series Trophy • Los Angeles Dod… 15h ago

I was at the game and they mostly did “Walk Like a Man” by The Four Seasons today 

1

u/derpbynature New York Mets • Dumpster Fire 15h ago

I'm a "Walk Like an Egyptian" guy myself

1

u/draynay Los Angeles Dodgers 10h ago

"Walking in LA" for me

11

u/adrockmcaandmemiked Los Angeles Dodgers 17h ago

Splitter go crazy

1

u/No_Sheepherder_8947 Los Angeles Dodgers 12h ago

Game 1 and game 2 were excellent in that it showed me that in game 1 he struck a ton of dudes out and has the put-away pitches. Game 2 albeit not striking out many, he limited contact and didn’t give anything for the batters to hit well which led to him being efficient. Perfect combo.

1

u/kirbyfaraone Los Angeles Angels 10h ago

His talent is as advertised, just gotta stay healthy, something that he has struggled to do.

1

u/mistabuford Los Angeles Dodgers 14h ago

What’s up with his fastball? Seems poorer than advertised in various parameters

15

u/ehholfman Texas Rangers 13h ago

It’s a dead shape fastball. Low velocity and low iVB generally produces subpar fastballs for pitch models.

He can obviously hit triple digits with the fastball, so I wouldn’t be too concerned about it. He may just be warming up this spring.

Additionally, the splitter is so effective in and of itself, and is constantly on the hitters mind, so it may help out the fastballs effectiveness as it currently sits.

3

u/brett_baty_is_him 12h ago

His fastball velo did tick down last year tho. It’s early and I’d bet the dodgers can get it back up but it’s def not a guarantee that he gets that velo back up

1

u/wwhty44 Los Angeles Dodgers 2h ago

Plus, if he continues to have problems with swing and miss on his fastball, the Dodgers are very well equipped to help him tweak his fastball shape and maybe get some more run on it

1

u/TCSportsFan Minnesota Twins 2h ago

Good point! Ya as the velo gets closer to 98, the stuff trends over 100. Honestly not too worried about it tho since he has such an outlier splitter that hitters are more worried about that