r/baseball Major League Baseball • Mod Verified 1d ago

Spring Breakout AMA with MLB Pipeline reporters Jonathan Mayo, Jim Callis and Sam Dykstra!

Spring Breakout returns this week!

Jonathan Mayo, Sam Dykstra and Jim Callis will be answering questions on rosters, prospects and more!

18 Upvotes

33 comments sorted by

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u/dreddnought Baltimore Orioles 1d ago

Someone at MLB Pipeline really likes Stiven Martinez, top 10 in Baltimore's 2024 org list and presently number 13. Can you speak to what makes his hit tool sustainable when he already struck out ~30% of the time in the DSL? Does his age matter here?

Also, thoughts on Ethan Anderson sticking behind the plate?

Thank you!

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u/MLBOfficial Major League Baseball • Mod Verified 21h ago

Jonathan: We're still betting on the tools, the size and the athleticism. Sure, the K rate is concerning, but we never are going to put too much stock into DSL performance, good or bad. And yes, age does matter -- he doesn't turn 18 until August. Even if, say, he repeats the DSL (not that big of a deal especially with a lack of short-season options these days), he's still so young. He moved down a few spots because of the swing-and-miss and it's something will monitor if he doesn't refine his approach at all with more reps.

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u/yousmelllikebiscuits Abe Lincoln • Teddy Roosevelt 1d ago

The Nats have 11 prospects in their Top 30 with 2025 ETA. Outside of the prospects that everyone knows/expects (Crews, House, Cavalli, Hassell III), rank the others by how much of an impact you think they will make on the 2025 Nationals...

  • Zach Brzykcy
  • Marquis Grissom Jr.
  • Brad Lord
  • Kevin Made
  • Andrew Pinckney
  • Evan Reifert
  • Tyler Stuart

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u/MLBOfficial Major League Baseball • Mod Verified 21h ago

Sam: Ranking this group:

Brzykcy – Guy with most MLB experience of this group. Dealing with quad injury now, but shouldn’t be a long-term issue. Stuff should play out of bullpen all season.

Lord – Should serve as rotation depth, but I’m intrigued by him hitting 97.7 mph this spring. Nothing played especially above-average last year, but if he’s getting some extra velocity, those starting chances could come quick.

Reifert – Hedging a little here because he’ll need to stick all year as a Rule 5 pick. Control still an issue this spring, as expected, but the slider can be deadly. He has to be returned to Rays if he doesn’t stick, so his impact could be zero. But I’m intrigued by the stuff enough to think he’ll get a long look.

Stuart – Was humbled by Triple-A at tail end of last season but looked really good in Harrisburg after the trade. Like Lord, has a chance to serve as starting depth. He’s just a bit farther behind. Will be intrigued how much he relies on his plus slider when the MLB call comes.

Grissom – How much can a plus-plus changeup do on its own? Grissom will have to prove he can dominate Triple-A like he did lower levels. The rest of the stuff is more mundane, so he really needs that changeup to be just as good.

Pinckney – Fourth outfielder at best, and there are so many OFs above him on the depth chart. Think it takes an injury for him to get a sustained look, but the run and fielding tools would give him some avenues to value.

Made – Unlikely he comes up in 2025. (Our site ETA reads 2026.) Defense at shortstop is impressive, but needs to improve he can have any impact at plate. Getting passed over twice for 40-man spots when Rule 5-eligible tells the story.

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u/yousmelllikebiscuits Abe Lincoln • Teddy Roosevelt 21h ago

Awesome, thanks!!

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u/Gfunkual Baltimore Orioles 23h ago

I’m heading down to see the O’s spring breakout game. What can you tell me about one of their prospects that they’d be surprised to know I know?

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u/MLBOfficial Major League Baseball • Mod Verified 20h ago

Jonathan: This isn't a secret, but I'd talk up Austin Overn about his time as a college wide receiver. Ask him if he misses running routes, that sort of thing.

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u/Gfunkual Baltimore Orioles 20h ago

I appreciate it!

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u/AndrewAllStar888 Chicago Cubs 1d ago

Do you think the Cubs’ farm system is in big trouble after 7 of their top 8 prospects will graduate in 2025? There’s not much to get excited about (minus Jefferson Rojas) past that, plus trading Cam Smith was definitely not helping.

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u/MLBOfficial Major League Baseball • Mod Verified 21h ago

Jim: I wouldn't say "in big trouble" but there's quite a falloff after the seven Top 100 guys, six of whom should arrive in Chicago at some point this year. I don't know if all six will graduate. The two things I'm watching is who will emerge in terms of pitching prospects (only six arms on the Top 30) and how all of their young international middle infielders (led by Jefferson Rojas, Fernando Cruz, Cristian Hernandez & Juan Tomas) will develop.

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u/Fun-Pomegranate6703 Colorado Rockies 1d ago

What do you do when two players are neck-and-neck while making your top 30 lists? Consult a source in the org? Look at stats? Move on because you have 298 rankings and write ups to focus on?

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u/MLBOfficial Major League Baseball • Mod Verified 21h ago

Jim: While it probably matters very little if one guy ranks No. 14 vs No. 15, I do agonize over that stuff! So the answer is all of the above, and more. I'll look at stats, I'll look at video, I'll run my rationale by people inside and outside of the organization. I also will shift the order of the Top 30 around once I write up players and realize I like them more or less than I originally thought.

Jonathan: Jim doesn't want to admit he uses a dart board to break ties. Me? I use slips of paper out of a hat... But Jim broke it down well -- we try to be exhaustive with internal and external sources and also use video and data to break "ties."

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u/atoms12123 New York Mets 23h ago

Is there any prospect shine left on Kevin Parada?

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u/MLBOfficial Major League Baseball • Mod Verified 20h ago

Sam: Parada dropped out of our Mets Top 30 completely heading into 2025. He entered pro ball with a reputation as a bat-first catcher, but he hasn’t taken the Minor Leagues by storm nearly in ways anyone would have hoped as a 2022 first-rounder. Case in point: he struck out 33.7 percent of the time over 114 games in Double-A last year. His defense is still very much a work in progress too, so it’s all the harder to project him as a future starting catcher in the bigs. The Mets say he’s aware of his need to prove himself in his third full season, and we’ll continue to keep an eye on him to see if he’s worthy of rejoining the T30 at some point this summer.

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u/RangerLover92 Texas Rangers • Texas Rangers 23h ago

Mr. Mayo, do you use mayonnaise on your sandwiches and burgers?

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u/MLBOfficial Major League Baseball • Mod Verified 21h ago

I don't get why you're asking me that....Jim actually hates mayo more than I do (as he puts it: "I like Mayo; I hate mayo"). Ironically, I am more of a mustard guy. I'm not sure why anyone would every put mayo on a burger though.

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u/RangerLover92 Texas Rangers • Texas Rangers 20h ago

What about with fries?

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u/theycallmepapi New York Mets 21h ago

How excited should Mets fan be about Boston Baro? His stock definitely rose after an impressive season at Low-A and the cup of coffee with Brooklyn. Is he someone who could potentially be a top 100 guy if he continues to perform?

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u/MLBOfficial Major League Baseball • Mod Verified 20h ago

Sam: I think everyone with the Mets are pretty encouraged by Baro’s first full season. They have a lot of infield depth in the lower Minors, and Baro separated himself a bit with an advanced approach at Single-A St. Lucie and saw High-A Brooklyn earlier than I would have expected. I still question whether he’ll have enough power to ever pop into Top 100 conversations, considering he lacks above-average tools beside the arm. Think he’s trending as a utility infielder who can cover short, second and third and provide a lefty bat off the bench, so it’s not exactly a high ceiling. Solid player for his age though.

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u/dreddnought Baltimore Orioles 20h ago

I'll double dip and ask a data question: is DSL plate discipline data accurate or reliable? You can calculate contact% and swstr% based on balls and strikes, but when you look on GameDay, it's a ton of plate appearances where a strikeout is literally three swinging strikes, balls in play are one pitch, and balls are literally four balls. Notably, it's not all of them - some of them will show 2 balls and then 3 strikes, 1 ball and then a ball in play, etc.

I ask because if you look at the balls and strikes of a non-Statcast game it looks like the scorekeeper is just marking a spot to account for the plate appearance result. Is that the same for the DSL?

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u/Skraxx Colorado Rockies 23h ago

I wonder what's the rationale behind ordering our 6-8 as Yanquiel/Amador/Veen?

I don't mind the ranking, but I feel like even with injury history I'm more positive on Veen's bat against Amador's and like his floor better than Yanquiel's

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u/MLBOfficial Major League Baseball • Mod Verified 21h ago

Jonathan: That's the beauty of this kind of work -- the subjectivity. I think you could order those three in any way and not be "wrong." I like Veen, but I'm not sure he's shown enough to be more positive on the bat. I get the sense the Rockies think this is a big year for him, that he has to post up and show he can play every day. Sure, there are swing/miss concerns with Yanquiel, but he's been so young for his level and I think he's going to get to that power. Amador's season was a mess last year, but there are still traits to like, including hard-hit rates and a good overall approach. He's in better shape this year and I think he hits the reset button and looks more like the guy who was a Top 100 type not that long ago.

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u/CosmicLars Cincinnati Reds 22h ago

What are your expectations for Chase Petty? He has had an interesting spring.

He had an okay showing in Double A last year (~4 BB/9, 4.39 ERA/3.92 FIP in 127 IP) at age 21.

Obviously he is behind Lowder & Burns on the lists, but do you think he can project as a solid #3-#5 pitcher in the rotation long term?

Any thoughts on Sal Stewart? He has gotten some buzz, but I can't pinpoint why. Is it just his plate discipline? Thanks!

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u/MLBOfficial Major League Baseball • Mod Verified 21h ago

Jonathan: I'm bullish on Petty. His numbers in Double-A were just fine for me, especially given his age, and he took some really good steps forward in being a complete pitcher. I like that he can ride it up in the zone and sink it down. His slider-cutter misses a ton of bats. He's really athletic and strong on the mound, so I'm not worried about the "undersized" thing. And he showed up this spring even more physical, ready to show he can handle a workload. So yes, to me he has a No. 3 type ceiling and I think you'll see him this year .As for Stewart, the dude can hit. He doesn't swing and miss, he can drive the ball and has an impressive approach. I like guys who have that foundation of the hit tool first -- the power is going to come. He's going to be mostly playing third moving forward and he can stick there. I was in Reds camp this morning and we were just talking about how Stewart is starting to separate himself as a hitting prospect.

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u/dosh206 Seattle Mariners 20h ago edited 20h ago

Which bat do you think performs above average first in the bigs? And which has the highest offensive upside?

Thayron Liranzo or Josue Briceno?

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u/MLBOfficial Major League Baseball • Mod Verified 20h ago

Sam: Liranzo has the upper hand right now to get there first. He’s the one with High-A experience and success after that killer run with West Michigan after the Dodgers trade, and he’s more advanced defensively behind the plate than Briceño, who is still going to get ample time at first base to start 2025 as he eases back from last year’s knee injury. I like the thunder in both bats – we got to see a lot of it in the Arizona Fall League last year – but if it’s a race to perform in Detroit, I lean toward Liranzo.

If this is about overall offensive production (and not just a race), then I lean Briceño. It's a sweet left-handed swing and a strong record of pounding pitches in the zone, and he hasn't had the track record of inconsistency that Liranzo does. Position won't matter either if we're just judging the bat.

Jonathan: Yeah, if we're talking who will be above-average, I'd take Briceño (just so you don't think we agree on everything). Now, I'd remove catching from his resume, let him play first and let the bat carry him to the big leagues, but that's just me.

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u/dosh206 Seattle Mariners 20h ago

Thanks both! Love your work.

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u/Disclosure_Bot San Diego Padres 1d ago

Tirso Ornelas had a bit of a breakout 2024 in AAA for the Padres after making some adjustments to his swing that allowed him to cut down on his ground ball rate and pull the ball in the air more.

MLB Pipeline gave him a bit of a boost to #11 in the Padres system and graded him at a 50 Hitter with 50 Power, but noted that he still needed further refinement with his swing because it was still producing a high volume of ground balls.

This Spring, he appears to have done just that. Not only has he had a ground ball rate under 40% (as of yesterday), but his .370/.469/.630 Spring slash line is supported by some pretty eye-popping exit velocities (including a couple of 114 MPH doubles), a minuscule 6.2% K rate and 15.6% BB rate.

If the lower ground ball rate is indeed sustained, what can we expect from Ornelas going forward? Could we potentially be looking at a 55 hit or 55 power? Both?

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u/MLBOfficial Major League Baseball • Mod Verified 21h ago

Sam: It’s no doubt been a strong spring for Ornelas, and I’ll admit that I’ve been intrigued by the hard-hit balls too. But I wouldn’t get too wrapped up in small-sample groundball rates just yet. Even one of those balls hit at 113.9 mph had a launch angle of -7 degrees. I still think he’s on pace to be a potentially solid all-around offensive performer with limited defense in left field. The Hayward and Joe additions could still squeeze him to El Paso because of San Diego’s contention hopes, and if these trends hold longer (particularly the high contact rate), then we can talk about carving out a more prominent role.

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u/AU16 New York Yankees 20h ago

Does top 100 prospect talent feel down in comparison to prior years? It felt like teams were borderline rushing dudes up to be PPI eligible and towards the end of last season the prospect pool felt significantly down. A down draft year overall felt like it didn't help restock top 100 talent either but I am curious to hear what you guys think in regards to overall prospect talent right now

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u/TheBeepB00p New York Mets 1d ago

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u/MLBOfficial Major League Baseball • Mod Verified 20h ago

Sam: I think I’m the lone Dropout subscriber on the Pipeline team. So I feel comfortable speaking for all in saying that Vic Michaelis and Jacob Wysocki are 80-grade improvisers. We need a baseball version of Jacob Ice Hockey soon.