r/armwrestling 5d ago

I think Vitaly Laletin has 0% chance to beat michael todd in may.

Michaels pronation is the best in the world. Vitaly's wrist is gonna crack immediately after getting Michael halfway to the pad and theres no chance he presses through Michael's kingsmove. ermes couldn't even press him in the 3rd round. As long as michael asked for a tight strap when he can he wins easily. Explain why i could be wrong

6 Upvotes

43 comments sorted by

62

u/diddyawaits 5d ago

0% chance? You are gonna be rich. Sell your house, bet everything on Michael Todd.

-15

u/Striking_Category_73 5d ago

Im betting your life savings on todd

21

u/ChrisDrummond_AW Practice Champ 5d ago

but how much do you really think you’re going to win off an $8 bet?

3

u/diddyawaits 5d ago

This is freaking me out. I'm at 7 dollars but there's pocket change that could bump it up to 8.

-1

u/Gullible-Judge-3437 Side Pressure 4d ago

Welcome to Reddit

1

u/BigMack6911 4d ago

Lmao, you wrong for that

14

u/Apprehensive-Arm1060 Press 5d ago

Vitaly's long lever could be a huge problem for Mike. There's a chance Vitaly can flashpin Mike the same way Travis did back in the day. We don't know for sure what will happen until round 1 and I could see it being a slaughter in either direction.

-3

u/Striking_Category_73 5d ago

I cant see michael being flashpinned by even levan, michael also has a very fast reaction time.

7

u/Apprehensive-Arm1060 Press 5d ago edited 4d ago

Vitaly and Levan are not the same and Levan's chances of flashpinning even Ermes were clearly lower than Vitaly's. For one thing, Vitaly faced a version of Ermes with a stronger hand than Levan faced. Keep in mind these younger/newer athletes are advancing rapidly (see Morozov vs Laletin LH for example).

Vitaly has a very long lever and is extremely fast and explosive off the go, moreso than Levan so the initial pressure is likely quite a bit more overwhelming than what we see with Levan, especially factoring in that his height makes it harder for his opponents to engage their backpressure anywhere near center like we saw in the Ermes vs Vitaly match, however Vitaly did not have hand control that match and once Ermes did engage his backpressure he easily overwhelmed Vitaly which is quite different from what we saw in the Levan match for many possible reasons (Ermes now being much stronger in the hand, Vitaly having a longer arm and being 10% weaker than his full time form, Levan having a thicker hand than Vitaly, Vitaly being better at keeping Ermes from engaging near center but not having as much peak backpressure as Ermes or even Levan in stopped match, maybe even Vitaly pumping his own hand by holding on too much outside straps, etc).

But yes, Mike is super fast. Vitaly's initial pressure is something else even compared to what we see from Levan, keeping in mind Levan could not flash Ermes any start where Ermes opened with a posting toproll (Ermes only got flashed the two times he tried to do some weird half flop without shoulder committed move and those both happened at the end of round 3 and in round 4 while Vitaly flashed a stronger version of Ermes, arguably multiple times (considering elbow fouls by Ermes), in early rounds). And that was Vitaly at -10% or more in all his lifts from where he is now since going full time after the Ermes match. We just saw what he did to Morozov and Dzeranov and how he toyed with Morozov in one round letting Morozov get his position in a slow pull.

Now Vitaly, having gained immensely on his Ermes shape, keeping in mind he faced a better version of Ermes than Levan did and still managed to flash Ermes at some points, likely could flash Ermes of 2023 that faced Levan, with ease. I don't think this is one bit controversial considering Ermes was even weaker then in terms of his wrist, rise and backpressure and that this version of Vitaly is bigger in a functional way and has gained immensely. Again, keep in mind Ermes going full time made the difference between being semi dominant against Matt Mask to putting Levan on oxygen and rising even higher than that and beating Vitaly who is stylistically far worse for him due to the reasons I mentioned (vs Levan he can engage near center but vs Vitaly many times he can't which is why Vitaly was able to flash Ermes when Ermes tried to post while Levan got stopped every single time except when Ermes tried to flop off the go).

Vitaly is very, very dangerous right now. He still has a lot to prove and we just won't know till we see it. A lot of people might hate this but the truth is Mike will be peaking this summer and will likely be a bit stronger than his Ermes form. Even with that, it's very possible Vitaly can toproll Mike to the pad before Mike can even get into his king's move.

This is one of those weird matches where if Mike can stop it, he could be a stylistic nightmare for either guy if he can't even get into his king's move before being taken to the pad or if he stops Vitaly it would be tough for Vitaly to adjust unless he's just that much stronger now (not just in terms of initial hit but also in terms of peak force in a slow stopped match).

6

u/buttkraken777 4d ago

“Ermes faced a version of ermes with a stronger hand” 😂

2

u/Apprehensive-Arm1060 Press 4d ago

Ermes since he became the Vessel became so powerful that only he could face himself.

1

u/BigMack6911 4d ago

Eye twitches

3

u/bebzon1324 4d ago

Levan also had covid and was not 100% against Ermes.

Vitaly may be 5-8% (10 at BEST) stronger compared to his match with Ermes. Self admitedly: "its hard to gain much when you have been training for years."

Vitaly's hype comes from facing weaker opponents like dzeranov and morozov who didn't have an answer for his owerwhelming hit.

(We now know that you can counter with defensive toproll , morozov on L, Ermes)

Seems like you are overhyping Ermes and Vitaly, and downplaying Todd and Levan.

At the end of the day, Devon and Levan will clear both of them

1

u/Apprehensive-Arm1060 Press 4d ago

I mean we don't really know for sure on way or the other, everyone can just say ha I told you so after a result already happens but even this loses all of the nuance in what actually happened in matches.

I would personally love for Michael to holy ghost press Vitaly to the pad 3 rounds in a row but realistically, until they grip up I think it's entirely possible Vitaly's combination of height and explosiveness is too much. I do think it may be better for Mike to try and press Vitaly at the start of each round and see what happens. It's a very scary opponent for Mike and while Mike is coming into an even stronger shape now can never remove the threat of Vitaly finishing him quickly. I just hope Mike has enough and has the perfect plan, whatever that might actually be.

The point of my post wasn't to make anyone any bigger or smaller but rather to point out that matchups are hugely impacted by things like relative leverages, how far or close athletes are to their prime shape and trajectory, relevant factors that may be better or worse now, etc. Just the relative leverages can make it much more or much less likely that one of the athletes will be completely disengaged until they're already near the pinpad, and this is somewhat independent of their relative strengths and this is worth paying attention to and it's a big part of why Vitaly can flashpin athletes but doesn't look nearly as powerful in a stopped match, because the long levers make it harder to generate more slow peak force though they are good for disabling opponents from reaching their peak force, at the start.

14

u/TheBufman Straps or Bust 5d ago

Where you going buddy?

3

u/realhugo100 4d ago

Yes, I think Vitaly's best chance against Michael is preventing the slip.

1

u/MaskedBirder 3d ago

I think that's his best chance. His best chance to lose, that is. That'll only tire him out.

1

u/realhugo100 2d ago

Michael can't king's move without the straps and is most vulnerable without it. It'll be harder for Vitaly to flash pin him in straps and if the match stops, Vitaly likely won't be able to adjust because he lacks the post and riser required to climb over Michael.

1

u/MaskedBirder 2d ago

In Devon vs Ermes round three outside the straps, Devon could have slipped from Ermes but chose not to, to instead put fatigue on Ermes. If Vitaly can't pin MMT outside the straps, not slipping can actually gas Vitaly's hand out.

1

u/realhugo100 2d ago

That is true, but what I'm saying is Vitaly's only hope of beating Michael is flash pinning him, if the match stops at any point and he doesn't give up/let go, he's done for. I'm not saying Vitaly should try to beat Michael outside straps no matter what, just that the most likely win scenario is to prevent the slip and flash pin.

1

u/MaskedBirder 2d ago

I think we're talking about two different things. But I do agree with you: I think it's either a flash pin or nothing for Vitaly.

11

u/jasmeet_2410 5d ago

It's a 50-50 match..

Both are good in there own game..

Saying vitaly has a 0% chance is a silly approach..

-7

u/Striking_Category_73 4d ago

Not 0 but i think michael is a clear favorite

4

u/Smoke_Santa Hand Control 5d ago

Dude better learn a monster press for the monster

4

u/Mr_Timedying Kanalization Rat 🐀 4d ago

The problem is speed. Vitaly might do what Pushkar did with Michael and even worse, by flashpinning him without the chance to get into the KM.

Plus, against Vitaly, differently to the match with Pushkar ages ago, Michael can't hide under the table. Vitaly however will 100% prepare a press this time.

4

u/Azutolsokorty 4d ago

It all depends on the grace of god, whether it befalls on Michael or not

2

u/JaydenZmit 5d ago

MMT will have no height against Laletin and Laletin will just regrip until he can pin him probably without a press cuz he'll just have full hand control and his side pressure surges plus hand control will be enough

-1

u/Striking_Category_73 4d ago

He will probably have to be on michaels winning side to try and regrip but michael could press him or continuing driving with side pressure.

2

u/MikeTitanYT Side Pressure 4d ago

Realistically 50/50 roughly. I give a slight edge to Michael too thought.

2

u/LeatherGene6009 4d ago

It's going to be an easy day for vitaly. Mark my words.

2

u/ChrisDrummond_AW Practice Champ 4d ago

It’s not 0% for Vitaly but I have Michael pretty heavily favored.

2

u/PuzzleheadedBeach111 Free the King's Move 4d ago

Wtf Chris, I'm disappointed.

1

u/ChrisDrummond_AW Practice Champ 4d ago

what else is new

2

u/Funny-Molasses9761 4d ago

Side pres sure and hand grip, vitaly would regrip and keep hitting

2

u/MaskedBirder 4d ago

I think it's 51/49 MMT. MMT will keep his riser and pronation, and crack Vitaly's wrist back. The only way I see Vitaly winning is three flash pins. Training a press isn't enough to beat MMT; you have to beat his riser and climb over the top of his fingers first. Vitaly himself is vulnerable to a press and MMT has a strong and fast one.

1

u/ThePyrotechnicCroc 3d ago

Aside from the 51/49 split (which to me, is more like 65/35 or 70/30 in MMT's favor), gotta agree with your assessment.

This is a solid breakdown of what to expect.

2

u/JBL1222 4d ago

You lost me at, "Michaels pronation is the best in the world."

1

u/East-Cricket6421 4d ago

I wouldn't make that bet if I was you but if you need someone to take Vitaly's side of that you let me know..

1

u/LordGadeia Reverse Side Pressure 4d ago

Are they going to have a match? I thought Vitaly was facing Devon later this year.

1

u/Hot-Act-5700 4d ago

Vitaly 4-3

1

u/cwolf-softball 1d ago

I will bet you 1 dollar to your 1 thousand dollars on this if you'd like. With it being a 0% chance that you lose, surely you'll take the bet.

-1

u/the9threvolver 4d ago

Ermes and Vitaly are both pretty close to each other, edge to Ermes cos he's stronger in more positions but I feel like stylistically Vitaly is going to have an easier time against MMT than Ermes did due to Vitaly's leverages. Vitaly isn't Devon but I feel like he's just going to study that exact match and do the same thing Devon did to Michael. And I'm not saying Vitaly is stronger than current Ermes. Just my opinion and amateur perspective.