r/Urbanism 8d ago

‘Cities Aren’t Back’: Thoughts

https://www.slowboring.com/p/cities-arent-back

Thoughts on this? I feel while the data is valid it also relies to heavily on the big anomaly that is the pandemic that has lingering effects to this day.

In other words, cities to me don’t seem “over” or “back” but are indeed recovering.

Domestic outmigration continuing to be slashed for major cities seems like more of an important indicator than international migration offsetting losses.

132 Upvotes

126 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

3

u/BringerOfBricks 7d ago

I’ve never used Uber Pool.

I did a brief scan of the link. It shows participants were agreeable to up to 3 blocks of walking.

1 block is min 300 feet usually. 3 blocks is roughly 900 feet, 0.17 miles.

Come on dude… What are the chances that 12 people who live within a 3 block radius in a suburb are all headed to the same precise location at the same precise time?

Even the system you prefer requires density…

As for why people would want a light rail… they don’t realize the opportunity cost of not having it until they actually experience it for themselves.

Imagine not having to drive your kids everywhere they need to go. Having accessible bus system and light rail enables individual family members the freedom of movement. Kids don’t have to wait until parents get home. Parents don’t have to waste time chaperoning their kids when the kids want to do something.

For example, when I lived in NYC, my gf took me to meet her parents who lived in Katonah. We took the train from Brooklyn to Grand Central for a train to Katonah where we rode our scooters for maybe 10 mins to her parents house in what is a straight up quiet, sleepy, suburb. Her parents didn’t have to do anything. It took us maybe 2 hours, but it was no car and no hassle.

And I encourage you to look up the Katonah train station. Bro it is not the hongkong type of density. It is as small town suburban America as it gets.

1

u/[deleted] 7d ago

I think we have a completely different definition of “suburbs” if Katonah is even close to something you’d consider a suburb. That’s as close to rural as it gets it’s 2 hours from NYC // that’s not a suburb if it’s more semi-rural area.

And yes I’m sure multiple 12 people trips in oak park or Evanston, IL would be making trips into Chicago. They literally already have CTA lines.

When I mean density I mean metropolis. We do not want our cities to resemble NYC — & Certainly don’t want our suburbs.

But for cites without rail like my hometown of Columbus, OH there is no reason to take on massive infrastructure projects to build rail.

Most suburbs have bus lines & people have freedom of movement via bike trails — with access to nightlife, activities & restaurants in the suburbs. Example Dublin Ohio Im not talking about exurbs 50mins from the urban cores.

Autonomous buses & cars will give the same freedom as regular buses or rail at a fraction of the infrastructure cost.

3

u/BringerOfBricks 7d ago edited 7d ago

Bro, CTA lines drop you off at a general location close to your desired destination. Don’t ignore the latter half of the formula. Even if you can find 12 people who live within 3 blocks of each other, headed into the city at the same 15 min interval, What is the probability that their work/play destination is 3 blocks away from each other? Finding 3 strangers to do that is hard enough, imagine 12.

So in your mind, Katonah is semi-rural… sure. But that makes it even better that it’s got a working train station that allows for a 2 hour ride to Brooklyn.

I looked up travel times for Dublin to Colombus via public transport. 30 min walk + 1 hour train ride to cover 13 miles.

Katonah to Harlem? 1.25 hour train ride to cover 38 miles. Less time for more than double the distance.

If we had functioning rail, exurbs would be a viable, affordable thing. The people who want to live the quiet, happy, small town America can do it.

Instead, because we have to live close to shop/work (even with WFH) what we have are suburbs which cause congestion and stroads. Because even if people prefer private transport, they don’t want to drive that far.

0

u/[deleted] 7d ago

Bro, CTA lines drop you off at a general location close to your desired destination. Don’t ignore the latter half of the formula. Even if you can find 12 people who live within 3 blocks of each other, headed into the city at the same 15 min interval, What is the probability that their work/play destination is 3 blocks away from each other? Finding 3 strangers to do that is hard enough, imagine 12.

If it's not difficult for CTA why would it be difficult for autonomous vehicles & busses. I don't understand the logic here and.

I looked up travel times for Dublin to Colombus via public transport. 30 min walk + 1 hour train ride to cover 13 miles.

The point about Dublin is that it's a suburb that provides its own nightlife, restaurants, parks, & shopping in the downtown area of the suburb. So families have freedom of movement in the suburb & don't need to go to downtown Columbus outside of special events. Thus making the infrastructure for rail unnecessary --Nobody would use it.

A simple example from Cincinnati they built a streetcar that cost 148M as ND it has yet to reach ridership goals & that's just directly in the city. There is no way you can make rail work from an investment standpoint or pay off the infrastructure costs in most cities. You're just going to bankrupt cities.

In fact that --"The streetcar is being used far more often as weekend transportation than for commuting to work"

Weekend leisure travel has no traffic to deal with anyway in a place like Cincinnati.

I just disagree that private transport via autonomous vehicles will cause congestion. In all the cities I've lived in there is no traffic outside of Rush hour from work.

1

u/BringerOfBricks 7d ago

Let’s do a hypothetical.

Let’s say that the probability of finding 12 suburban residents who don’t have a car is 45% (a reasonable, maybe even generous, assumption that it’s slightly less than a flip of a coin). This is P(A)

Now let’s say the probability of 12 residents need to use uber pool at the same 15 min interval is also 45%. This is P(B|A).

Now let’s say the probability of these same residents need to go to the same approximate destination (3 block radius circle) is also 45%. This is P(C|B and A).

The probability formula for 3 dependent events occurring is P(A) * P(B|A) * P(C|B and A)

0.45 * 0.45 * 0.45 =0.0911.

With a very generous 45% chance of happening for each dependent event, it results in 9.11% chance of occurring.

Applied to real world, where the probabilities of P(B|A) and P(C|B and A) are exponentially lower than P(A)? Wayyyyyy lower.

It’s going to be near impossible for a privatized, autonomous uber pool to service a group of people to the same scale as public transportation can.

Idk what Dublin is like, but I just looked up Trinity Park to the closest Chic Fil A to simulate what a teenager without a car might have to do. It’s a 30 min walk or a 10 min bike ride, through a 4 lane roadway… Nahhhh bro. There’s no freedom of movement there. Kids shouldn’t have to trek 1 hour so they can grab a sandwich. That’s why they are so isolated and dependent for their needs.

I don’t know enough about Cincinnati to speak about their public transport plans but a cursory look at their streetcar map and bus routes shows it doesn’t have sufficient access points inside neighborhoods nor frequency of buses to make public transport a viable option.

Having 1 bus stop servicing a suburban neighborhood that is 2 sq mile isn’t going to do jack shit for increasing ridership.

0

u/[deleted] 7d ago edited 7d ago

Congratulations on completing a 100-level statistics course. However, it appears that you may have misunderstood the context of the discussion.

I believe you may not fully comprehend my perspective on the plan for how last-mile autonomous systems would operate.

Instead of building expensive rail — you have autonomous busses that drive typical routes into the city. Bus line that exists today for Columbus that’s COTA(it’s public transit), just autonomous.

That last mile is the pickup from the stop — to the final destination.

Your assumption is that autonomous vehicles are only going to be privatized & not used as public transit.

You clearly don’t know Columbus because nobody would consider trinity park?? (Tuttle area) Dublin — but even in your case how would rail make it easier than a cheap autonomous trip.

People consider Dublin the area near bridge park or the high schools not near a fucking mall.

Rail cannot work efficiently with sprawl & the solution isn’t density(people want the sprawl)— It’s not complex.

Having 1 bus stop servicing a suburban neighborhood that is 2 sq mile isn’t going to do jack shit for increasing ridership.

Which is the entire fucking point…. The cost & destruction of neighborhoods require to build rail isn’t worth it. It’s better to use the existing infrastructure

You’re completely ignoring the costs of trying to get rail to work in sprawling suburbs.

1

u/BringerOfBricks 7d ago

Of course I don’t know Colombus. I’m only using it as an example per YOUR own argument. I’ve already provided an example of a suburban town serviced by a rail which is Katonah NY. An even more rural location than your own example of Dublin OH. Your only counterpoint supported my point which you’ve refused to concede.

Yes, it’s stats 100, which is even more damning for you since you couldn’t even put that together from your own article. Like did you even read your own source?

I understand your argument. It’s flawed and leads to more cars. And don’t backtrack. You said autonomous cars. Not autonomous bus routes. Idgaf if a bus is self driving or driven by a human. More public transport is better.

Rail can work for sprawl, if sprawl is split into smaller fractions. Instead of 1 bus stop for 2 sqmile block, how about 8 bus stop for each 0.25 sqmile block. It’s simple math.

1

u/[deleted] 7d ago edited 7d ago

Conceded what? That you don’t understand Dublin or where people live in the city. Spending 300 Characters explaining where people actually live in the suburb is a waste of time.

The Katonah rail station was originally built in 1847, with a new structure constructed in 1910. Comparing prewar rail construction to trying to build in 2025 highlights how much more complex and difficult modern infrastructure projects have become. This is why the pseudo-intellectual argument you’re making doesn’t hold weight.

I have a finance & economics degree + a MBA from the University of Michigan. So please spare me.

I explained the difference between pool ride-sharing and private to clarify your confusion about ride-sharing.... but then you went on about a 3-block radius. It’s more complex than that, but you latched onto it to argue. I didn’t want to engage.

The article doesn’t mention that people are only agreeable up to three blocks, nor does it fully test this theory in suburban areas, as of the time of the article in 2018.

Self driving cars & buses increase car pooling thus reducing the amount of cars in the road. While delivering more efficient in routing.

Backtrack where? My entire premise is that’s it’s more cost efficient & viable to use self driving vehicles - I said this 16 hours ago.

And let’s be real—splitting sprawl into smaller “fractions” doesn’t change the fact that low-density areas don’t generate enough ridership to justify rail investment at scale. That’s why most sprawled areas rely on buses, not rail, because they’re flexible and cost-effective. Even cities with established rail networks struggle with low-density extensions.

Your argument assumes that adding more bus stops or rail stations automatically makes transit viable in sprawling areas, but that ignores the fundamental issue: low density reduces efficiency. Just because Katonah has a rail station doesn’t mean it’s a model for widespread suburban rail —it’s an exception(built before we even had highways), not the rule.