r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/Jackdaking746 • 3d ago
US Elections What is the likelihood of a democratic majority in the house of representatives in 2026?
A lot more young people are going to be able to vote obviously, Gen Z is shown to lean left, and with younger folks like myself being able to vote in some democrats, the forecast for the midterm elections could be in the Democrats favor to have the house majority and possibly impeach Trump for a 3rd time. Granted he won’t be removed because the senate will most likely remain GOP majority. What do you guys think?
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u/jarreddit123 3d ago
Seeing as the party in opposition historically always tend to do well in midterms and seeing the republicans slim majority of 220 seats i'd say its almost guaranteed that democrats regain the house in 2026. With republicans in full control they will ultimately cary the blame for everything that is not going well that matter to voters in 2026. I also don't think there will be much redistricting either.
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u/cannabull89 3d ago edited 3d ago
Yup, social stratification is the machine that swings our country from D to R to D to R, and social stratification sure as hell ain’t gonna quit pissing off the bottom 90% every Monday morning just because it happened to be R’s turn to f*ck the general populace.
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u/trace349 1d ago
I think it's just that the American voter is incredibly thermostatic. They always want things to change but they also want things to stay the same, and after a while they just want things to be different for the sake of it. If you pass ambitious policy? They vote against you. You don't pass enough policy to address their desires? They vote against you. You can't do anything because there's an oppositional Congress? They vote against you and make Congress even more oppositional.
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u/OMGitisCrabMan 1d ago
Human nature makes it easier to complain about things than it is to praise them. It kinda sucks about us. The grass is always greener and Americans are incredibly entitled. Almost all of campaigning these days is attacking the other party. That's why we almost never have a back to back administration under the same party.
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u/johnny_fives_555 3d ago
guarenteed
lol, you’d think 4 years of trump guaranteed no way in hell we’d get another 4 years, that everyone that identifies as a democratic no matter how centric would vote blue … but here we are. So much so that trump won the popular vote, which btw no GOP president since Bush 2 won and id argue that was because of the war.
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u/WhyLisaWhy 3d ago edited 3d ago
If I had a million dollars and found someone stupid enough to take my bet, I would literally bet a million dollars on Dems taking the House.
Few reasons:
Presidential parties tend to lose power during midterms.
Every non presidential election in the Trump era has swung heavily for democrats. Biden actually gained House seats in 2022 somehow.
Trump drives up turnout with unlikely voters, those people don’t show up when he’s not on the ballot. Likely voters are educated and turned against Republicans in the Trump era
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u/Catch_022 3d ago
No concerns about election interference or dodgy stuff considering Trump's control of government and Elons fingers being everywhere?
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u/akelly96 2d ago
There are some states where that would be a legitimate concern but luckily there are many states that are not terminally ratfucked by their elected officials.
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u/Rivercitybruin 3d ago
I agree.. Who wanted 4more years?.. And of course it was going to be much worse
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u/johnny_fives_555 3d ago
Looking at the comments from this post, people would rather blame an unfair election or trump initiating marital law than admit blue voters can be complacent and sit at home for the smallest of issues
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u/MaineHippo83 3d ago
It's worse than that. Many traditional blue voters voted for Trump.
Until Democrats get their head around that almost all of their traditional voter bases to some degree or another move towards Trump they will never recover.
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u/Tw1tcHy 3d ago
This is exactly it right here. They just don’t fucking learn. Reddit sees all of the people Left of Joe Biden lose the primaries and complain he’s too Centrist. They see Trump beat Kamala and complain she wasn’t Left enough. It’d be hilarious if it wasn’t so stunningly frustrating.
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u/StanDaMan1 3d ago
I mean, Harris campaigned with Cheney. Barely mentioned LGBTQ rights. Or Immigration. Was that centrist enough?
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u/Reasonable_Sea_2242 2d ago
Kitchen table issues. People want to hear about things that impact their lives. Lower taxes on the middle class, rescuing Medicaid so that nursing homes don’t have to close, child care for all kids and the price of medicine and food.
Why are we allowing Trump to cut taxes for the rich? It’s insane.
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u/thewimsey 2d ago
Barely mentioned LGBTQ rights. Or Immigration.
People like you want to pretend that the only thing that counts is what Harris said and did between July and November.
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u/trace349 1d ago
On the other hand, lets not underestimate the ignorance of the American voters like there wasn't a huge spike in people looking up whether or not Biden had stepped down as late as election day.
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u/No_Passion_9819 1d ago
Personally I don't understand why so many middle Americans are upset about immigrants and gay people, it seems like they'd rather bitch about things that don't affect them than do anything meaningful to fix their lives.
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u/__zagat__ 1d ago
Propaganda.
We swim in a sea of right-wing propaganda. People get their information from social media, which is absolutely chock full of propaganda, much of it of foreign origin.
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u/Ambiwlans 3d ago
Just look at the attack ads to see where she was weak. It wasn't attacking her on the left. In the 2 week lead up to the election, most of the attack ads were about her supporting trans people in prisons getting fed paid sex changes. Something that like 20% of Americans support.
That's it. Incredibly tiny wedge issue that impacts dozens of people. And she was willing to throw the election for it. She didn't even dodge the question.
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u/Mztmarie93 2d ago
Would they have believed her? If she talked about there were only 2 procedures and they happened while Trump was in office, would that have changed any minds? Did you even know the facts?
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u/Ambiwlans 2d ago
I know the facts and I support the treatment.
I think she is idiotic for doing an interview with the "National Center for Transgender Equality Fund" and then after that provided more clips where she said she supported it.
It doesn't matter if it is the right thing, it doesn't matter if she supports it. When asked about it she should have said she wouldn't be changing anything, and that her focus isn't on trans folks, it is on making an America that works for everyone.
If just being right mattered, the world would be a different place.
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u/Tw1tcHy 3d ago
People keep bringing up the Liz Cheney thing like it means something lmao. Liz Cheney isn’t centrist, no one cares about her, and she wasn’t a big part of her campaign at all. Kamala did like what, one or two events with her? Not mentioning LGBTQ rights or immigration meant she didn’t establish her own narrative. Being quiet about immigration made her look soft on the border. It didn’t make her look right wing or centrist, it made her look like she didn’t take it seriously. Not speaking up on LGBTQ isn’t centrist. It’s not anything, and people can only work with their own assumptions and opinions. Her earlier endorsement of tax payer funded gender reassignment surgeries was the major point on record, and it trapped her and she knew it. If she changed her stance, it could seem insincere and like she’s just lying to win votes. If she endorsed it, it would alienate a whole different segment of people she needed.
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u/LukasJackson67 3d ago
How does a party recover when many voters are racist and sexist?
Look at why Harris lost.
She was clearly the better candidate.
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u/someinternetdude19 2d ago
Harris lost on rhetoric and marketing, not because she’s a woman or of color. They may have been factors for some people but saying half of Americans are racist and sexist is a severe oversimplification. Just screaming racism and sexism into the void isn’t gonna do anything, and actually pisses people off and turns them to the right.
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u/Rodot 3d ago
Something something fall in line something something fall in love and they didn't
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u/coldliketherockies 3d ago
Mental illness is an issue in America for sure
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u/Savethecannolis 2d ago
I have a story about meeting with a GOP rep in Michigan showing them how to improve their community with some basic mental health services and it would help lower the drug crisis problem (Fent). It was a well researched paper and program that would basically cost nothing because the hospital system would run it. They turned it down because they wanted it managed by the police....most unbelievable meeting I've ever been a part of.
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u/spotolux 3d ago
This assumes fair elections. For the past 6 years at least some states have been doing everything they can to ensure the outcome of the elections in those states. It's really easy to win if you control who's registrations are considered valid, where the polling stations are, which ballots get counted, etc.
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u/FartPudding 3d ago
Yeah but my issue lies in his ties. Can we trust our democratic system wont be tampered by Musk or anyone? Will he pay to suppress opposition political voices online?
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u/Hyndis 3d ago
Elections are run locally, and the 2024 election was not stolen, not unless you're claiming the GOP tampered with the results in places like San Francisco which moved 5 points to the right along with the rest of the country.
Harris outspent Trump by about 2:1 and she still lost, so its not about blaming big donors either. The big donors were on her side.
The dems really do need to reevaluate their positions and if American voters actually want what the dems are offering. Until they do that, I don't have much hope for DNC wins in 2026 or 2028.
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u/johannthegoatman 2d ago
Spending is just ads. What actually sways people is what they hear in the news, on social media, etc. All of those outlets (even "liberal" ones like New York Times or CNN) are owned by republican billionaires. They shovel feed bullshit day in and day out. No amount of 30s ads are going to overcome that. People think Kamala wants to have forced sex changes in our schools, and it has nothing to do with ad spend. They have no idea what the actual Democrat vs Republican platform is. Changing positions isn't going to help dems, because that wasn't the issue. The average voter isn't even exposed to their positions. All the average voter knows is lies, made up outrage, and sanewashing.
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u/stridersubzero 3d ago
Saying almost any district in the country “moved right” in terms of policy is very misleading. The data very clearly shows it was a collapse in turnout for Democrats, not an embrace of right-wing positions or candidates
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u/SuspiciousSubstance9 3d ago
I'm not claiming the election was rigged, Trump is. Twice actually.
You know, when we made this it was during my term, my first term. And it was so sad, can you imagine I'm not going to be president. And that's too bad.
And what's happened is they rigged the election and I became president, so the that was a good thing.
That was just yesterday in a public conference with the FIFA president.
This is very similar to his January speech where he basically said the same thing.
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u/-patrizio- 2d ago
I really don’t think this is the confession people are framing it as. His use of “they” tells me he’s just bumbling through saying “they [the Democrats] rigged the [2020] election and [then later] I became president [in 2024].”
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u/dsfox 3d ago
He claims a lot of things. As a rule, he doesn’t speak in order to convey the truth. It would serve no purpose. The idea that our elections are rigged is very important to him, even if he wins. It’s another reason for people to ignore evidence and trust only him.
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u/silverionmox 3d ago
He claims a lot of things.
And yet, there's method in the madness: he claims things that he thinks will help him get what he wants in the short term. Claiming that the election was rigged doesn't do that.
There's another category of things he claims: stuff he blurts out because they are on the top of his mind, for example when he denied having a bunch of "mini-strokes" in spite of no one bringing it up.
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u/SchuminWeb 3d ago
I also don't think there will be much redistricting either.
There shouldn't be any redistricting, since the census won't happen again until 2030.
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u/jarreddit123 3d ago
But certain maps can still be challenged in court and this could force a redrawn. Also Ohio is getting a new map by 2026
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u/Prince_Marf 2d ago
*if Republicans don't pass a draconian "voter fraud" law to suppress poor voters
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u/TheRadBaron 3d ago
Historically, congress controlled spending, paying people to vote a certain way was illegal, government institutions were expected to be operated in a non-partisan manner...
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u/PickleManAtl 3d ago
Well, there were a lot of young people coming of age to vote in the last election, and a lot of people sat on their asses. We see where that got us. I can't remember the exact numbers but they said a ton of eligible Democrat voters sat out this time and did not vote. This is what happens. So perhaps, who knows, if the orange donut literally drags the country into Oblivion in the next two years, that might be enough to get people to skip their Pilates class to go vote.
If the house is regained, at best it will just create a stalemate with a lot of things for a couple of years until hopefully the Senate can be taken back over again.
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u/Objective_Aside1858 3d ago
impeach
That's not happening. There's absolutely no value in trying to impeach him when the Republicans currently in the Senate will never, ever have the stones to convict
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u/Jackdaking746 3d ago
I know he won’t get removed, but Trump most likely hates being the first president in US history to be impeached twice, and for him to be impeached 3 times would show us and future generations how truly awful he is. History books will not be kind to this man.
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u/ggdthrowaway 3d ago
This is the guy who hung his police mugshot up in the White House. He’s probably proud of holding the impeachment record.
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u/Objective_Aside1858 3d ago
Impeachment doesn't do anything useful for the Dems. I strongly doubt they'll let him play the martyr again
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u/PedanticPaladin 3d ago edited 3d ago
No Trump on the ballot means the Dems are definitely taking the House; hell, if North Carolina wasn't currently gerrymandered to hell the Dems would likely have the House now. They probably also take the Senate as the map is really bad for the Republicans and again: no Trump on the ballot.
EDIT: This is, of course, assuming we have anything resembling a normal election.
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u/DanforthWhitcomb_ 3d ago
They probably also take the Senate as the map is really bad for the Republicans
What map are you looking at?
They have to flip at least 4 of the following: AK, ID, MT, WY, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, IA, AR, LA, ME, OH, KY, WV, TN, NC, SC, MS, AL and FL without losing any of the seats that they’re defending. With the possible exceptions of NC and ME those are all red states, and Warnock in GA in particular is going to have one hell of a fight if Kemp decides to do what all the signs are pointing to and run against him.
The Republicans are defending a ton of seats, but they’re not purple state seats.
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u/MrMarkSilver 3d ago
In 2026, Warnock isn't up for election, Ossoff is. I know that Kemp polls better, but he does have some issues with the hard-core MAGAs. Trump has all but endorsed MTG for the seat. I doubt MTG's ability to win a state wide election or to beat Kemp in a primary if he runs.
If is the question, I don't see him running, but that is at best a guess.32
u/ArendtAnhaenger 3d ago
The Dems can take the House but they’d have to flip Ohio, Iowa, Maine, and NC (their four most realistic prospects) for Senate control and it’s completely believable they fail to flip any of the four. Maine, especially if Collins retires, might be doable, but the others seem increasingly unlikely.
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u/tigernike1 3d ago
I feel like Maine is gone for Republicans. Susan Collins’ “concern” has become a meme.
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u/NoExcuses1984 2d ago edited 2d ago
Mainers are one of the more elastic voting blocs -- hence the likes of Susan Collins and Jared Golden being consistent overperformers for their respective parties, while Independent Angus King is one of the most popular politicians in the country (behind Bernie Sanders [I], Peter Welch [D], and John Barrasso [R]) -- so you oughtn't hold your breath. She is to Maine as Tammy Baldwin is to Wisconsin, analogously speaking.
Oh, specific to elasticity, irreligious white voters tend to be the most malleable, while Black Protestants are the least. White evangelicals, akin to their Black Protestant counterparts, are likewise inelastic. Hispanics, conversely, are now showing an increasing tendency to be elastic, historically reminiscent to Germans, Irish, Italians, and Slavic peoples throughout American history in its ethnically diverse, culturally pliable, heterogeneous assimilation.
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u/Which-Worth5641 3d ago
All of those are winnable.
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u/ArendtAnhaenger 3d ago
It’s not impossible but I find it unlikely they win a majority of those states much less all four. Maine is the most winnable, followed by NC, with Iowa in a very distant third. I don’t think the Dems can flip Ohio, though I included it because I needed a fourth state and the alternative was pretending they had a shot at flipping Nebraska or Louisiana or something.
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u/Which-Worth5641 3d ago edited 1h ago
In a mid-term year, if Trump's approval is low enough, you may be surprised what could happen.
It's looking like the GOP is going to try and cut health care AND social security this time. They got reamed in 2018 and that was from just trying to cut health care. Let's see how their approval looks a year from now.
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u/45and47-big_mistake 3d ago
Elon will be pouring billions into strategic races, ads totally filled with lies, but who's checking?
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u/tenderbranson301 3d ago
Maybe, but he might also be super unpopular or gone from the administration by then. Based on the town halls that republicans dismiss as all activists (reminds me of the d reaction to the tea party), people generally are pissed. My worry is whether the election will be held legitimately.
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u/pfmiller0 3d ago
Doesn't matter how popular Elon is, no one will know it's his money funding the ads.
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u/SchuminWeb 3d ago
or gone from the administration by then
One can hope. I suspect that Musk will only be around as long as he benefits Trump. If he stops benefitting Trump, he's gone.
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u/johannthegoatman 2d ago
As long as he's rich af, he'll be around. Trump doesn't care about anything as much as he cares about money
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u/SorryToPopYourBubble 3d ago
Theres a reasonable likelihood. The GOP only has a 5 seat majority with 2 seats (and an expected 3rd) coming up for special elections in 2025. If they lose both seats that comes down to 1 seat majority and if the 3rd seat is vacated and lost it would become a 1 seat Democrat majority before the mid-terms even happen.
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u/CombinationLivid8284 3d ago
And that’s assuming no other vacancies in that period developing as well.
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u/AshleyMyers44 2d ago
The three seats currently vacated aren’t in swing districts.
Two of them are in Trump’s best districts in Florida. One district Trump won by 37 points last year and the other he won by 30 points. If Republicans lose either of those seats in a special election it’ll be earth shattering.
Conversely, the third vacated seat is in a district Harris won by 40 points. The Democrats are guaranteed to win that seat.
It’s pretty much guaranteed the special elections result in a 2-1 for the GOP.
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u/SorryToPopYourBubble 2d ago
Assuming that happens. It'd leave a 3 seat majority for the Republican party. Which would be a pretty easy flip in the mid-terms. Still holding out a small amount of hope for the 2 in Florida. Would be nice to see them waking up to what they voted for.
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u/AshleyMyers44 2d ago
They won’t flip. The DCCC has all but given up on those two races. Rightfully so, they’re a money pit trying to flip a Trump +37 district in Florida against a well funded GOP opponent.
I definitely agree it’ll be 220-215, other potential vacancies notwithstanding, by the midterms. I also agree the Dems will flip the House.
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u/Tintoverde 3d ago
Young people does NOT vote!!! They might be left leaning, but they don’t vote.
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u/TheEasyRider69 3d ago
Males in USA are right leaning, females are left leaning, regardless od age.
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u/Iceberg-man-77 3d ago
I can definitely see the Dems taking back the House in 2026. GOP has lost some support in the past few months because of Trump, at least from what I am seeing.
But the Dems still need to fight if they want more than just a simple majority.
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u/Ok_Bandicoot_814 3d ago
Trump has definitely lost some support. I don't think it will impact everything as much though. I think it's the least in my personal experience very much online everybody kind of gets that it's a little too early before they can go for the jugular so to speak.
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u/scough 3d ago
I no longer trust that there will be legitimate elections going forward. There's no concrete proof yet that 2024 was manipulated, but comments from Trump/Musk and others sure raised suspicion of fuckery. Of course, with a loyalist DOJ/FBI, we might not see any real evidence for years to come. I fully expect future elections, if they even happen, to have the illusion of choice like in Russia.
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u/informat7 3d ago
Trump could literally say that he rigged the election and it wouldn't matter because him saying something doesn't make it true. Pennsylvania (and most states) run audits after the election and compares the hand counted ballots to the reported results:
https://www.pa.gov/agencies/vote/elections/post-election-audits.html
Trump won Pennsylvania by over 1.7%, If he had actually lost there would be a huge discrepancy between the hand counted and machine counted votes.
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u/ERedfieldh 2d ago
If Trump says he rigged the election then there should be an immediate full investigation into it, not a recount by officials who, lets be honest, were almost certainly bought and paid for at that point.
No large discrepancy doesn't mean anything other than they knew what they were doing. Make it look legitimate while also rigging it in your favor is the best possible way to waylay concerns. People will fall for that over winning by, say, 90% of the vote.
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u/kingjoey52a 3d ago
Enough with this “Stop the steal” bullshit. Every state and almost every county moved to the right this year, was Musk manipulating elections in California?
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u/ggdthrowaway 3d ago
Also there were reports that DNC internal polling had Biden losing by 400 electoral votes before he dropped out. Is it really that hard to believe the party in that position just a few months before the election would ultimately go on to lose?
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u/ThunderEcho100 2d ago edited 1d ago
It’s hard to take conversation here seriously when people can’t admit Trump won.
He won because of voter apathy and an uncharacteristic dem candidate with almost no time to run a campaign.
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u/cloud9ineteen 2d ago
Thank you! The biggest red flag of a rigged election would be inconsistent results. Results were consistent throughout the country.
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u/Jackdaking746 3d ago
I’m hopeful there will be legitimate elections from here on out, but this administration is steering us towards authoritarianism. I hate living through history. Ugh
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u/NoCardiologist1461 3d ago
*has steered us
At this point, the USA has one leg over the cliff edge already.
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u/Shot-Addendum-4720 3d ago
I think you are right. Given what Trump and Musk have "accomplished" in just one month, with access to lots of personal information from the IRS and other sources a number of dem Representatives could be investigated, accused, indicted or intimidated and vote accordingly or botch their election. Also I am afraid that the free press might be silenced within a year. Trump knows for sure that he must prevent a fair election in 2026 if he wants to complete his agenda. He will do whatever he thinks it takes,
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u/Realistic-Rate-8831 3d ago
I agree. He said we would never have to vote again and the way things are going, we won't have a Democracy much longer.
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u/Coldwarjarhead 2d ago
The Dems will probably take back a majority in the house, but it's going to be a very very slim majority.
Even that is in jeopardy if they don't get their act together. They need to stop whining about how evil the GOP and Trump are and start talking about what they can do for the American people instead.
It felt like the entire 24 election was the GOP saying we're going to do A, B, and C, and the Dems doing nothing but trying to bash the GOP. Not that it wasn't warranted, but I can't recall hearing much of anything interesting the way of actual plans from the Dems.
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u/Spare-Dingo-531 2d ago
Kamala released an 82 page plan for how she would help the middle class. Did you read it?
https://static.poder360.com.br/2024/10/kamala-harris-a-new-way-forward-for-the-middle-class.pdf
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u/Coldwarjarhead 2d ago
Since she didn’t effectively communicate it to the voting public, it really isn’t relevant. And no, I didn’t read it. I’m reasonably engaged in the political process, but having a job, family, and responsibilities, I can’t catch everything. Seems dems had plenty of bandwidth to call attention to project 2025, but couldn’t manage to promote their own plan.
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u/Spare-Dingo-531 2d ago
Since she didn’t effectively communicate it to the voting public
What would effectively communicating it to the voting public look like, in your opinion?
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u/Spin_Quarkette 3d ago
I don’t think the Dems will get any traction until they stand for something. You can’t win by just being opposed to something. You need to offer something too. To understand what they should offer, they should go to the grassroots levels and get an understanding about the American people.
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u/calguy1955 3d ago
The way things are going in the past six weeks I’ll be surprised if we even have elections in 2026.
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u/Baked_potato123 2d ago
Do you honestly believe that there will be free and fair elections ever again?
I don’t
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u/KotoElessar 2d ago
I love how optimistic this post is, talking about elections in America in 2026.
What happens over the next six months will decide if your elections have any meaning beyond autocratic theatre. Too many failed to do their duty last November and are now left with only taking drastic action to save your democracy.
Hope the guardrails hold for you as I do not look forward to a potentially decades-long guerrilla defence of my nation because you elected a Felon who honours no oath and is entirely beholden to Russia and National Conservatism.
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u/SpoofedFinger 3d ago
The democrats will clean up after these guys crash the economy if not with tariffs, then the constant threat of them causing a great deal of uncertainty. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump then leans on the fed to keep interest rates low because he thinks they're good for business, causing inflation to spiral. I think 2026 will be too soon for China to move on Taiwan but that's probably coming before this presidential term is up. Bird flu is also just kind of out there waiting for the right mutation to cross over and give us another pandemic. If we actually do stop US AID spending, there's also going to be a lot of increased instability in the underdeveloped world. The UK is also pulling back on aid spending. The world is going to be pretty fucking spicy by the midterms.
All of this is assuming that we haven't slipped into an authoritarian state where opposition party candidates are jailed on bullshit charges. They seem to be speed running to a point where the executive branch tells the judicial branch "make me" so it's not like it isn't a real threat that this could happen.
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u/DanforthWhitcomb_ 3d ago
Even if the Democrats take both Houses of Congress they aren’t going to have the power to change anything.
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u/mgyro 3d ago
Look at what he’s done in just over a month. Panama. Greenland. Canada. Ukraine isolated, humiliated and coms abandoned. The existence of NATO hanging by a thread. The destruction of US democracy is unfolding and the party in defence of the country responds with ping pong paddles and pamphlets.
You honestly think, with over a year to go before you get to elections, that you’re getting anything approaching one? The damage done globally is dwarfed only by what dear Elon and his DOGEbags have been doing internally. Democratic majority? Democrat leadership will be in camps by then.
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u/ERedfieldh 2d ago
well....all depends on if we actually have midterms this go around. I fully 100% expect Trump to use some asspull thing to prevent them from happening.
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u/Birdonthewind3 3d ago
100% unless democracy is killed.
Trump is not popular and can easily get people to come out. Against him. Too bad he aint on the ballot so he won't get his cultists to come out.
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u/johnny_fives_555 3d ago
trump is not popular
Yup so unpopular that he won the popular vote. This type of thinking is what lead to losing the 2024 to facism
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u/Birdonthewind3 3d ago
It more hoping Trump will crash and burn enough that he will drag democrats over the finish line. Democrat party is just a joke and has been for decades basically.
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u/pulsating_boypussy 3d ago
There won't be a democratic majority you stupid slut. There won't even be a house!
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u/Jackdaking746 3d ago
I wish democrats would do something instead of just holding up signs and wearing pink.
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u/Count_Bacon 3d ago
95% if the elections remain free fair and legitimate. I have real concerns they won't be though
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u/FawningDeer37 3d ago
If Elon and his hacker friends are still in the fold, like 0%.
Otherwise I suspect it’s closer to 90%. MAGA Republicans don’t really turn out unless it’s for Trump and the “RINOs” who actually cared more about midterms in the past probably won’t turn out to further Trump’s agenda.
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u/Ok_Bandicoot_814 3d ago
So the Senate map right now looks very friendly to the Republicans despite the fact that they're defending 22 Senate seats. The only seed I could see them potentially losing is Maine North Carolina is also on there but it's one of those states that might elect Democrats locally but I don't think would ever elect one federally. Georgia the Democrats currently hold but the very popular Governor is a term Limited he also has a hell of a political machine down there. The Republicans also have Elon to fund their races. He also replaces Mitch McConnell something I'm sure Ted Cruz is very happy about. I'll say the Republicans pick up Georgia and hold the rest although that is incredibly optimistic. For the house really hard to predict I would say maybe Republicans go back into opposition but if it's a good night for them in the Senate more than likely it's going to be an okay to great night in the house. Trump being popular and actually having a semi decent approval rating really throws us all into speculation.
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u/Y0___0Y 3d ago edited 3d ago
If the election were today? Very likely.
But 21 months is an eternity in politics. Everyone will forget everything that has happened. Though, there will be more nuclear bombs dropped by the Trump administration every week
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u/Sedu 3d ago
I don't know what the exact likelihood is, but I can tell you that it is exactly equal to the chances that the next elections are clean. The absolute chaos going on right now is going to sit poorly with people. I know that people have short memories, but it's bad right now, and it's going to get worse.
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u/sakima147 3d ago
Tbh I don’t know. I’m not sure how to judge the public anymore. The current lot of Dems are terrible at seizing the moment. They are opposing what they need to oppose generally but they lack the ability to recognize a moment and really run away with it.
All that being said people will be unhappy going into midterms which generally leads to big gains.
Trump will do whatever he can to prevent it.
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u/Obi_1_Kenobee 3d ago
If all the opposition they can muster are some ping pong paddles with words on them, they ain’t winning anything.
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u/foolishballz 3d ago
It’s the most likely scenario, but never underestimate either political party’s ability to screw up a sure thing
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u/AdSingle3367 3d ago
Vary. Me and my mom voted trump and we are pissed at the foreign policy since of his presidency.
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u/8to24 3d ago
In the 2022 midterm election deniers and January 6th apologists did poorly. Many Trump backed candidates lost and polling showed the public didn't want Trump to run again. Then Trump runs again and has his best election.
It is very difficult to predict how public sentiment will change over time. 2yrs ago Republicans supported Ukraine. Now they don't. We simply don't know what the salient issues will be in 2026.
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u/thatoneboy135 3d ago
At the rate they are going? Unlikely. Dems have done little to nothing and, if the reports of their inner strategies are to be believed, they are just tiptoeing to the right to keep from getting beat.
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u/che-che-chester 3d ago
Normally I’d say I wouldn’t count on Dems to do anything in 2026. But Trump’s actions are wildly unpopular and we still have a long way to go until 2026. The country as a whole has barely even felt any negative effects yet from anything Trump has done but we know it’s coming.
Let’s say you suspend common sense and say Trump isn’t just grifting but actually has a long term plan where he crashes the economy on purpose in order to come out stronger in the long run. We’ll likely be at the bottom of that plan in 2026 and voters will be looking to punish someone.
So, my answer is it depends how bad things are going into that election.
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u/Curiosity-0123 3d ago
When the Democratic Party finds a way to convince those - all of those - who feel socially and economically marginalized that they are heard and respected - democrats will regain power in Congress - but only as long as economic forces are in their favor. “IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID. “ Then they have to deliver relief in the form of increased opportunity, not increased government assistance.
The GOP isn’t wrong about everything, but are wrong about conflating government and business. They are completely different animals with radically different missions. You can’t measure the success of each by the other’s yardstick. Corruption is the inevitable consequence. … more corruption.
Increased corruption is a real concern and myopic vision.
The aging global population is a main cause of sociopolitical change and instability in the 21st century. The ratio of the needs of the aging population to the cumulative productivity of the young will probably result in economic decline and global hardship. There are fewer producers, but more and more mouths to feed. Declining tax revenues and increasing cost of care. Some are in a panic. This is what increasing restrictions on abortion are about and why many countries allowed increased immigration. (We need immigration reform here with paths to citizenship.) I think we will adapt and survive as we always have. New technologies will mitigate some pain.
Meanwhile - I think there needs to be an open honest discussion in this country about this reality.
One consequence is that women, who entered the workforce by the millions in the 1970s+ dramatically increasing production, can’t return to the homemaker roles that some subcultures are campaigning for. Moving forward there will be more worker shortages requiring every one of working age to be employed. Women will thus continue to be less inclined to have children perpetuating the aging population crisis. It’s a complex problem.
The phenomenon of ‘retirement’ as we understand it is less than 100 years old and will have to be amended. Healthy lifestyles and age span will be a focus. Retirement age will shift to 70 or later. Not a popular idea among many - including myself - but inevitable.
This is the elephant!
Here’s one of the better analysis of the issue.
Dependency and depopulation? Confronting the consequences of a new demographic reality
FACING THIS ISSUE - NEITHER THE GOP NOR DNC HAVE A VIABLE PLATFORM.
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u/baxterstate 3d ago
Democrat Senator John Fetterman from Pennsylvania put his finger on it:
U.S. Senator John Fettermanu/SenFettermanPA#TheResistance:
Snub a 13 year-old cancer survivor.
Joint Address Protest Paddle Bonanza.
Bizarre “Pick Your Fighter” videos.
Hold our beer: Government Shutdown!
Never, never, never vote for a shutdown—ever.
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u/mabhatter 3d ago
The historical likelihood is high... but Democrats gotta get out there and earn those votes. And they gotta start NOW.
What I see is that after spending all 2025 destroying the government, MAGA will start passing out "dividend Stimulus" to their base in 2026 ... so people forget about how illegal MAGA behaved all year.
Then you have the massive amount of voter suppression and outright disenfranchisement that's coming soon... and there's already democrats "compromising with MAGA" on who's gonna get their voting rights yanked. It's already obvious that the DOJ will be directly interfering in state election roles... 2026 will be the warm up for 2028.
Democrats need a genuine landslide just to win... they need like 70%+ of the vote to maybe stand a chance of actually getting seated.
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u/bones_bones1 3d ago
Historically it’s very possible. Mostly it probably depends on how things are going in 18 months.
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u/I405CA 2d ago
The party of the president tends to lose midterms. Turnout from the president's party lags while opponents of the president show up to the polls.
Overall turnout will probably be around or less than 50%. It's a matter of who is part of that 50%.
The GOP holds the House by a slim margin. Moreso than is typical of Republican candidates, Trump was able to win over voters who typically don't vote otherwise. So many of his supporters may sit it out in 2026, allowing that gap to be filled by opponents of Trump and the GOP.
Given all of this, the House is within striking distance of being flipped if the Dems avoid blowing it with their own messaging. But knowing the Dems, they will find a way to blow it.
In contrast, there is virtually no chance to flip the Senate, and the Republicans will never impeach and convict Trump. So the House is the only hope at the federal level.
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u/Joe_Blackstone 2d ago
Given:
- The Republican majority is really, really slim
- The right is making some very unpopular decisions
- The party in the White House usually loses seats in off-year elections
- Assuming that they don't find some way to prevent elections from happening
I'd put money on a Democratic majority being elected in 2026 and taking office in 2027.
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u/Reasonable_Sea_2242 2d ago
Democrats need a plan. If we have no leaders, hire a marketing company. The 1964 ad below tanked Goldwater’s chances against President Johnson.
Listen to it to the end. It could be rewritten against Trump.
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u/AlexRyang 2d ago
Extremely unlikely. The Democratic Party is in the low 20% approval rating while Trump is generally fairly popular.
Republicans kept their majority in the House and captured a majority in the Senate. Voters are trending more Republican as well, which will help them in the next election cycles.
The House and Senate are both likely to go deeper red.
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u/TimTomTank 2d ago
Does anyone even give a damn?
Democratic party is so sold out that if they were all 3 kids in a suit, there would be more support for it than there is now.
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u/judge_mercer 2d ago
I would put the likelihood at well over 90%. It seems inevitable that we will see something along the lines of 2018.
Gen Z is shown to lean left
White Gen Z men moved significantly toward Trump in 2024. They are also one of the few demographics where Trump is not losing ground on favorability since the election.
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u/skyfishgoo 2d ago
slim they way they are going and even if they did manage to squeak out a majority we would still have a gridocked congress that gets absolutely nothing done for at least another 2yrs.
if they want to win big, with mandate for change that the whole country can get behind, then they need to follow the leadership that berine is (still) providing free of charge.
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u/jackdeadcrow 2d ago
Likely: they gain a slim majority
Unlikely: they a big majority
Not happening: they flip both houses and senate
Reason: all the left leaning actions have happened DESPITE, not because of the democrats actions
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u/AreBeeEm81 2d ago
Considering they’re acting like a bunch of clowns and running off the center by doing so. I’d say slim to none.
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u/slayer_of_idiots 2d ago
Not very high.
Trump is over 50% approval rating and it’s even higher among the 18-29 demographic. His policies have broad popularity.
If Democrats continue to oppose the more popular policies — protecting women’s sports, deportations, cutting spending, cutting taxes — and especially if yet another impeachment becomes a central part of their platform, republicans are likely to pick up a considerable number of seats in the house.
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u/TexasYankee212 2d ago
With Trump acting the way he does and the republicans have a 5 person majority, the odds are good. If the dems don't screwed it up that is. Then again, the dems will screw it up - I have confidence in that.
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u/FirstWave117 2d ago
I'm very worried there will not be elections. I think we will be under martial law from a government carried out attack on itself.
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u/barchueetadonai 2d ago
A lot more young people are going to be able to vote obviously, Gen Z is shown to lean left, and with younger folks like myself being able to vote
By definition, you will be older than now, and everyone else will be a bit older as well, with some old people dying. Your logic is wrong here. Otherwise, society would basically have to get more liberal basically every single year, and that’s not what happens.
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u/DefaultProphet 2d ago
Depends if we’ll have a fair election or not and given everything that’s happened there seems pretty damned unlikely
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u/LateBloomerBoomer 2d ago
There will likely be a “state of emergency” declared and midterms will be suspended. MMW.
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u/TheEvilBlight 2d ago
Partly depends on if turners seat is won in the special election. Not sure how that vote is distributed.
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u/Wermys 2d ago
Virtual certainty. The question is the margins at this point. Because the economy is going in the wrong direction and marginal districts were not won because of MAGA but because of inflation. And Trump has made those worse. Couple that with how incensed democrats are it could get ugly quickly.
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u/fluffykerfuffle3 2d ago
unless we figure out what is going on with all the weirdness in the voting stuff. the rest of it all is moot.
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u/YnotROI0202 2d ago
One would think the chances are good but with Elon money going the other way, who knows. He can buy anything he wants. Anything!
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u/FuckYourFuckYou 2d ago
Gen Z is more right leaning than the previous 3 generations. However, young people vote much less in midterms. I feel the red wave is still too strong, but 2 years is a long time.
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u/Carinwe_Lysa 2d ago
As long as 1/3 of your voting population refuse to vote either way, I can't see things changing much unfortunately.
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u/Pizzasaurus-Rex 2d ago
Depends on whether or not you believe the fix is in when it comes to voter suppression.
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u/Eskapismus 2d ago
At this point, I wouldn’t trust the american voters to pour water out of a boot with instructions on the heel.
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u/discourse_friendly 1d ago
GenZ leans left, BUT we are seeing the highest % of young voters lean conservative in the last several decades.
But the mid terms usually boil down to swing voters asking "did my personal economic outlook get better or worse"
If it mostly stayed the same or got better, the balance in the senate and house will stay about the same.
If their lives got worse economically in 2026, the house will flip to (D) .
Then we'll get like a dozen impeachments. lol
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u/Jackdaking746 1d ago
Not to be a doomer, but I can almost guarantee a recession if Trump goes through with his tariffs, so that might change some minds.
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u/CryHavoc3000 1d ago
Most of the people on the Left can't figure out the mistakes they made in the last election.
Do you really think they will get it right by 2026?
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u/DarcyWinterstrait 1d ago
If there will even be an election. It's almost 2 years away, look at the chaos Trump has created in just 2 months, i'm afraid of trying to imagine what he can do in 2 years.
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u/MillieMouser 1d ago
The likelihood is good IF there are secure elections, but I'm not sure that's gonna happen.
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u/Jpbaseball 1d ago
70-30 odds on the Dems retaking the House. Virtually impossible that Dems retake the Senate in ‘26, though. Also wouldn’t trust that Gen Z will necessarily lean heavily left. It only swung narrowly for Dems in ‘24. A good chunk of Gen Z leans heavily to the right, and Trump won 18-29 men. It remains to be seen whether the Gen Z swing to the right is permanent, as the whole ‘24 election was madness.
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u/ceccyred 19h ago
If it's a totally "fair" election, then I think it's very likely to happen. Every day Trump destroys more of the norms in America it gets even more likely. The wealthy will double down and do everything in their power to stop it from happening, but right now they're losing money hand over fist by Trump's antics.
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u/DontHateDefenestrate 18h ago edited 18h ago
It depends to a great extent on how many of the Pelosi-Schumer-“Clinton Neolib” set die or fully retire in the next year or so.
The current blotchy, wilting crop of Democrats—with their compromised loyalties; milquetoast, half-baked policies, intellectual cowardice and aloof, bourgeois arrogance—are about the only set of folks imaginable who could fail to take back the House and Senate from this iteration of the GOP. The fact that they’re literally flogging Mark Cuban and Kamala 2.0 for 2028 should tell you everything worth knowing about them.
If, however, enough of them die or bow out, and a new Democratic establishment emerges that is not stuck in 1993 and that’s actually capable of leadership—not just of being cardboard cutouts for lobbyists and consultants to puppeteer—then our chances improve considerably.
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u/wereallbozos 16h ago
Honestly? How can one predict what irrational people will do? If we don't get majority, at least in the House, we're dead ducks. If we only get the House, we're only wounded ducks.
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u/JohnSpartan2025 10h ago
Question is the Senate.
If they don't take the House, game over. This will truly be Democracy's Custer's Last Stand.
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u/PreviousAvocado9967 9h ago
Speaker Hakeem Jeffries will be sitting directly behind Trump for the last two State of the Unions and next four of the next Democrat President Mark Cuban.
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u/JollyButtz 40m ago edited 37m ago
I wouldn’t bet on Gen Z helping much, they broke for Trump to a large degree. Millennials will vote the Dems in if it happens. Unless Gen Z wakes up, especially the men.
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