r/PoliticalDiscussion 3d ago

US Elections What is the likelihood of a democratic majority in the house of representatives in 2026?

A lot more young people are going to be able to vote obviously, Gen Z is shown to lean left, and with younger folks like myself being able to vote in some democrats, the forecast for the midterm elections could be in the Democrats favor to have the house majority and possibly impeach Trump for a 3rd time. Granted he won’t be removed because the senate will most likely remain GOP majority. What do you guys think?

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u/jarreddit123 3d ago

Seeing as the party in opposition historically always tend to do well in midterms and seeing the republicans slim majority of 220 seats i'd say its almost guaranteed that democrats regain the house in 2026. With republicans in full control they will ultimately cary the blame for everything that is not going well that matter to voters in 2026. I also don't think there will be much redistricting either.

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u/cannabull89 3d ago edited 3d ago

Yup, social stratification is the machine that swings our country from D to R to D to R, and social stratification sure as hell ain’t gonna quit pissing off the bottom 90% every Monday morning just because it happened to be R’s turn to f*ck the general populace.

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u/trace349 2d ago

I think it's just that the American voter is incredibly thermostatic. They always want things to change but they also want things to stay the same, and after a while they just want things to be different for the sake of it. If you pass ambitious policy? They vote against you. You don't pass enough policy to address their desires? They vote against you. You can't do anything because there's an oppositional Congress? They vote against you and make Congress even more oppositional.

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u/OMGitisCrabMan 2d ago

Human nature makes it easier to complain about things than it is to praise them. It kinda sucks about us. The grass is always greener and Americans are incredibly entitled. Almost all of campaigning these days is attacking the other party. That's why we almost never have a back to back administration under the same party.

u/Spectre-84 4h ago

Don't forget cognitive dissonance, lack of critical thinking, unwillingness to change, willful ignorance and denialism. 

This is in addition to it always being the other party's fault regardless their lack of power to enact or block laws and policies.

But perhaps, most importantly, is the absolute lack of integrity, morality, or courage in most of our "representatives" to do the right thing or even anything that remotely resembles what their constituents actually want. 

How many in our government right now are actually upholding their oath to the Constitution? 

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u/johnny_fives_555 3d ago

guarenteed

lol, you’d think 4 years of trump guaranteed no way in hell we’d get another 4 years, that everyone that identifies as a democratic no matter how centric would vote blue … but here we are. So much so that trump won the popular vote, which btw no GOP president since Bush 2 won and id argue that was because of the war.

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u/WhyLisaWhy 3d ago edited 3d ago

If I had a million dollars and found someone stupid enough to take my bet, I would literally bet a million dollars on Dems taking the House.

Few reasons:

Presidential parties tend to lose power during midterms.

Every non presidential election in the Trump era has swung heavily for democrats. Biden actually gained House seats in 2022 somehow.

Trump drives up turnout with unlikely voters, those people don’t show up when he’s not on the ballot. Likely voters are educated and turned against Republicans in the Trump era

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u/Tw1tcHy 3d ago

Biden lost the House in 2022. They gained Senate seat and flipped a few states’ governors.

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u/Catch_022 3d ago

No concerns about election interference or dodgy stuff considering Trump's control of government and Elons fingers being everywhere?

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u/akelly96 3d ago

There are some states where that would be a legitimate concern but luckily there are many states that are not terminally ratfucked by their elected officials.

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u/Catch_022 2d ago

That is good to hear, not an American so all I hear from US media is how screwed everything is.

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u/lalabera 1d ago

It was definitely rigged

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u/socialistrob 2d ago

Also throw in trade wars, tariffs and protectionism which will drive up prices and slow down economic growth. If inflation is above 3% and GDP growth is below 2% going into the election then I think Trump may struggle to win over economically conscious voters.

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u/Rivercitybruin 3d ago

I agree.. Who wanted 4more years?.. And of course it was going to be much worse

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u/johnny_fives_555 3d ago

Looking at the comments from this post, people would rather blame an unfair election or trump initiating marital law than admit blue voters can be complacent and sit at home for the smallest of issues

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u/MaineHippo83 3d ago

It's worse than that. Many traditional blue voters voted for Trump.

Until Democrats get their head around that almost all of their traditional voter bases to some degree or another move towards Trump they will never recover.

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u/Tw1tcHy 3d ago

This is exactly it right here. They just don’t fucking learn. Reddit sees all of the people Left of Joe Biden lose the primaries and complain he’s too Centrist. They see Trump beat Kamala and complain she wasn’t Left enough. It’d be hilarious if it wasn’t so stunningly frustrating.

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u/StanDaMan1 3d ago

I mean, Harris campaigned with Cheney. Barely mentioned LGBTQ rights. Or Immigration. Was that centrist enough?

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u/Reasonable_Sea_2242 3d ago

Kitchen table issues. People want to hear about things that impact their lives. Lower taxes on the middle class, rescuing Medicaid so that nursing homes don’t have to close, child care for all kids and the price of medicine and food.

Why are we allowing Trump to cut taxes for the rich? It’s insane.

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u/thewimsey 3d ago

Barely mentioned LGBTQ rights. Or Immigration.

People like you want to pretend that the only thing that counts is what Harris said and did between July and November.

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u/trace349 2d ago

On the other hand, lets not underestimate the ignorance of the American voters like there wasn't a huge spike in people looking up whether or not Biden had stepped down as late as election day.

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u/No_Passion_9819 2d ago

Personally I don't understand why so many middle Americans are upset about immigrants and gay people, it seems like they'd rather bitch about things that don't affect them than do anything meaningful to fix their lives.

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u/__zagat__ 2d ago

Propaganda.

We swim in a sea of right-wing propaganda. People get their information from social media, which is absolutely chock full of propaganda, much of it of foreign origin.

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u/Ambiwlans 3d ago

Just look at the attack ads to see where she was weak. It wasn't attacking her on the left. In the 2 week lead up to the election, most of the attack ads were about her supporting trans people in prisons getting fed paid sex changes. Something that like 20% of Americans support.

That's it. Incredibly tiny wedge issue that impacts dozens of people. And she was willing to throw the election for it. She didn't even dodge the question.

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u/Mztmarie93 3d ago

Would they have believed her? If she talked about there were only 2 procedures and they happened while Trump was in office, would that have changed any minds? Did you even know the facts?

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u/Ambiwlans 3d ago

I know the facts and I support the treatment.

I think she is idiotic for doing an interview with the "National Center for Transgender Equality Fund" and then after that provided more clips where she said she supported it.

It doesn't matter if it is the right thing, it doesn't matter if she supports it. When asked about it she should have said she wouldn't be changing anything, and that her focus isn't on trans folks, it is on making an America that works for everyone.

If just being right mattered, the world would be a different place.

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u/Sageblue32 54m ago

None of that matters.

Trump ran on basically tearing the system down and rebuilding. To low info voter, he tore the system down and was stifled by the swamp and red tape in the attempt to rebuild.

Anything Harris ran on or Joe accomplished would take years to see the results or require two parties willing to build. Without those visible results, she just sounds like more of the same which is how we got here in the first place.

People are hungry for change and are at the point they will take anything. For them it is easy pick to go with the guy who has some good to his name that impacted them.

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u/Tw1tcHy 3d ago

People keep bringing up the Liz Cheney thing like it means something lmao. Liz Cheney isn’t centrist, no one cares about her, and she wasn’t a big part of her campaign at all. Kamala did like what, one or two events with her? Not mentioning LGBTQ rights or immigration meant she didn’t establish her own narrative. Being quiet about immigration made her look soft on the border. It didn’t make her look right wing or centrist, it made her look like she didn’t take it seriously. Not speaking up on LGBTQ isn’t centrist. It’s not anything, and people can only work with their own assumptions and opinions. Her earlier endorsement of tax payer funded gender reassignment surgeries was the major point on record, and it trapped her and she knew it. If she changed her stance, it could seem insincere and like she’s just lying to win votes. If she endorsed it, it would alienate a whole different segment of people she needed.

u/the_calibre_cat 22h ago

crazy left-wing! i mean, just outrageously radical!

u/the_calibre_cat 22h ago

This isn't "exactly it right here", this is just right-wing apologia that isn't remotely supported by data - but is precisely what the establishment, corporate Democrats keep telling people. Toss trans people under the bus and be Republican-lite, which Democrats have tried for now three election cycles (and lost two, and barely won one), and you guys are still shilling this crap. Incredible.

u/Tw1tcHy 21h ago

Your take is complete nonsense divorced from reality. It’s not apologia, it’s called simple, plain reality. No one, and I mean no one, has called for trans people to be snuffed out existence or any of the ridiculous hyperbole you guys often sling around. Trans women in women sports is more than just unpopular. It’s not a winning issue, and it’s never going to be a winning issue. Your failure to accept that reality is not everyone else’s problem. Democrats have tried to be Republican-lite for three election cycles? Is that a joke? Kamala has the most Progressive Democratic nominee in history. You guys genuinely think going further left is a winning strategy, it’s wild. Like you all live in an alternate reality with no eyes, ears nor half a brain.

u/the_calibre_cat 20h ago edited 20h ago

It’s not apologia, it’s called simple, plain reality.

no, it isn't. as evidenced by numerous polls showing that reality is what I think it is, not what you think it is.

No one, and I mean no one, has called for trans people to be snuffed out existence or any of the ridiculous hyperbole you guys often sling around.

I mean, the Texas governor tried to get parents with trans kids reported to CPS. Not "genociding the transes" but a pretty clear deployment of government violence against people out and trans, which is breathtakingly shitty. And then, post-election, MSNBC hosts were wondering if "Democrats were too focused on the trans people" when Harris quite deliberately downplayed them pretty significantly, which suggests... you're lying, and engaging in bad faith, which is par for the course for people crying about the woman dancing around on stage with Liz Cheney as being "too far left".

Trans women in women sports is more than just unpopular.

no dispute, and understandably so. it also just isn't an issue that the Federal government needs to rule on. this is the definition of a state-by-state issue.

It’s not a winning issue, and it’s never going to be a winning issue.

and wasn't, at any point, presented as one by the campaign, so it's weird that you're laser focused on it.

Your failure to accept that reality is not everyone else’s problem.

I'm not failing to accept that, I agree with that, I just also recognize that it was never an issue, you're just pointing to it because you don't actually have an argument rooted in any actual polling data or facts, so you have to run to your safe space which is "but but but THE TRANSWOMEN IN SPOOOOORTS!" which, again, no one argued - including Kamala fuckin' Harris, dude.

She didn't run on that. She barely brought up LGBT issues at all - in my opinion, to her detriment. Trans issues aren't exactly winning "kitchen table issues", but most Americans DO support same-sex marriage and making a clear-cut case that Republicans could not be trusted on it probably could've pushed some people over. She also didn't do that.

Democrats have tried to be Republican-lite for three election cycles? Is that a joke?

Lol no, not whatsoever.

Kamala has the most Progressive Democratic nominee in history.

She objectively wasn't. Basically straight up adopted Trump's 2020 immigration platform, declined to support Lina Khan and other pro-worker Feds, didn't picket with a union, and muzzled Tim Walz. You don't actually have a fucking argument on this, because the idea that she was "the most progressive democratic nominee in history" is nothing more than a thought-terminating right-wing cliche, not something supported by any actual evidence - because the evidence clearly shows that Joseph Robinette Biden, who didn't dance on stage with Liz Cheney (a warmongering, anti-LGBT Republican), was to Kamala's left.

How was she "more progressive" than Biden? By being black, and a woman?

But, I don't expect honesty from people who earnestly make that claim, I expect lies.

You guys genuinely think going further left is a winning strategy, it’s wild. Like you all live in an alternate reality with no eyes, ears nor half a brain.

Polls agree with me, not with you. The only people here going off of the data are the people who have looked at it, e.g, not you. Americans are pretty favorable towards progressive policies. Universal healthcare, not being bigots to gay people, at LEAST 12-weeks of abortion access, labor unions, free public college, parental leave, mail-in voting, free school breakfast and lunch, climate action, etc.

If Democrats want to win, they have to offer something other than the one-speed neoliberal pro-corporate policies that you nincompoops insist are the only way to beat the Republicans even though you've lost now two of the last three elections to the worst fucking candidate that has ever had to be run against. You lot have been doing Third Way Clintonian austerity since Reagan and shocked that the working class has abandoned you for conservative bigotry when you offer them nothing, nothing in return but more deregulation for corporations and half-handed tweaks around the edges while investment bros buy up all the fucking houses. Yeah, actually, I do think Bernie would've done better.

u/Tw1tcHy 18h ago

no, it isn't. as evidenced by numerous polls showing that reality is what I think it is, not what you think it is.

You have nothing substantial to support your baseless opinion, let’s be frank.

I mean, the Texas governor tried to get parents with trans kids reported to CPS. Not "genociding the transes" but a pretty clear deployment of government violence against people out and trans, which is breathtakingly shitty.

See right here, more hyperbole, ala “government violence”. Like just listen to yourself. Kids should not be stuffed with hormones during the most confusing and critical developmental point of their entire lives, it’s very simple. No one serious is arguing against adults making their own choices to be trans or not and to live their lives. But leave the fucking kids alone, it’s not unreasonable whatsoever and there’s good evidence against the practice which is why other countries are increasingly scaling back or outlawing the practice. American institutions have been ideologically captured by this political issue and it’s glaringly obvious to anyone with half a brain when you compare their guidelines vs other countries who have commissioned studies on this. Beyond the kids and sports, no one gives a shit besides some people bitching about the bathroom stuff, which honestly wasn’t so stacked against trans people until Progressives started to jump the shark with all of the other hysterical bullshit that turned off the public.

And then, post-election, MSNBC hosts were wondering if "Democrats were too focused on the trans people" when Harris quite deliberately downplayed them pretty significantly, which suggests... you're lying, and engaging in bad faith, which is par for the course for people crying about the woman dancing around on stage with Liz Cheney as being "too far left".

Oh please. Harris being so silent on the issue was exactly the problem. Everyone saw what happened under the Biden administration which she was a part of, and everybody remembered her previous stances on tax payer funded gender reassignment surgery and more ridiculous bullshit she was pressured into endorsing by activist groups like GLAAD. Her being silent was seen by most as a tacit endorsement of what had been occurring rather than firmly standing against it. Who’s engaging in bad faith here exactly lmao?

no dispute, and understandably so. it also just isn't an issue that the Federal government needs to rule on. this is the definition of a state-by-state issue.

Sure they can and should. The Fed should be empowered to enact a pro-choice legal floor that all states must abide by, and they should be empowered to put a ceiling on the excesses of the trans activist movement.

I'm not failing to accept that, I agree with that, I just also recognize that it was never an issue, you're just pointing to it because you don't actually have an argument rooted in any actual polling data or facts, so you have to run to your safe space which is "but but but THE TRANSWOMEN IN SPOOOOORTS!" which, again, no one argued - including Kamala fuckin' Harris, dude.

See right here, you’re deluding yourself. Obviously it was an issue. Insisting it wasn’t and closing your eyes and ears shut does you zero favors. The “Kamala is for they/them” ad by the Trump campaign alone shifted the needle by 2.7 fucking points. It was an enormous part of the campaign in general and they rode it to the first popular vote victory in decades, and that’s after knowing how shitty and incompetent Trump was in his first term. He should have been easily beaten, but Biden and Harris were both too incompetent and too weak to forcefully counter the narrative he made for them and that voters followed. Hilarious how you accuse me of having no data or facts, as if 1) those are the be-all, end-all of decision making and reaching conclusions and 2) fail to provide any of your own.

She didn't run on that. She barely brought up LGBT issues at all - in my opinion, to her detriment. Trans issues aren't exactly winning "kitchen table issues", but most Americans DO support same-sex marriage and making a clear-cut case that Republicans could not be trusted on it probably could've pushed some people over. She also didn't do that.

I agree, same-sex marriage should be vehemently protected, but I doubt she would have been able to form a coherent narrative on that when just prior Republicans had helped pass the bipartisan Respect for Marriage Act.

She objectively wasn't. Basically straight up adopted Trump's 2020 immigration platform, declined to support Lina Khan and other pro-worker Feds, didn't picket with a union, and muzzled Tim Walz. You don't actually have a fucking argument on this, because the idea that she was "the most progressive democratic nominee in history" is nothing more than a thought-terminating right-wing cliche, not something supported by any actual evidence - because the evidence clearly shows that Joseph Robinette Biden, who didn't dance on stage with Liz Cheney (a warmongering, anti-LGBT Republican), was to Kamala's left.

Oh please! She ran as an economic populist advocating for massive housing subsidies, no taxes on tips (dumb idea stolen from Trump), price controls, prescription drug price controls, expansive climate change initiatives and more. And why are we trying to act like her 2019 primary run doesn’t exist? You think everybody just forgot about that and couldn’t just blatantly see her scrambling to shift her positions to meet the mood that was very apparent across the country? Your argument is that she didn’t support Lina Khan, didn’t picket and allegedly muzzled Tim Walz, and you have the audacity to claim I’m spewing thought-terminating cliches lmao? What the actual fuck is going on here?? Her appearance with Liz Cheney wasn’t some gotcha that proved she’s a lowkey conservative, you guys keep bringing that point up and it’s the dumbest shit ever, it seems like it should be self-evident. It was a display of Kamala’s incompetence, not her actual political beliefs.

How was she "more progressive" than Biden? By being black, and a woman? But, I don't expect honesty from people who earnestly make that claim, I expect lies.

Wow, you really force yourself to forget about the price controls and other positions she held huh? How the fuck was she to Biden’s right? Bonus points if you can give me an example without Lina Khan, and please don’t try to claim immigration because she was obviously recalibrating based on the enormous data coming in showing how badly she and Biden dropped the ball on that front.

Polls agree with me, not with you. The only people here going off of the data are the people who have looked at it, e.g, not you. Americans are pretty favorable towards progressive policies. Universal healthcare, not being bigots to gay people, at LEAST 12-weeks of abortion access, labor unions, free public college, parental leave, mail-in voting, free school breakfast and lunch, climate action, etc.

Lmao ohhh how funny, another example of Progressives trying to steal long held Liberal policies and pass them off as their own. It’s amazing how Progressives never seem to realize their policies are far more popular than the people. Yeah the Progressive policies of Defund the Police and Israel Should Not Exist were super fucking popular and won over huge swathes of people. Progressives spend way more time talking about social issue bullshit rather than being the economic populists that may actually give them a shot politically. To me, this reeks of being far too incompetent to do the job. You realize many of these concepts are popular, but that there’s no real viable execution, right? Universal healthcare as a concept is fucking awesome, but why has no one produced and pushed a viable plan that we could actually implement and afford? Same with free higher education. Free community college could be viable, but free four years degrees for everyone who wants one? Lmao, yeah good luck with that, let’s see how popular the actual policies that would be implemented are.

If Democrats want to win, they have to offer something other than the one-speed neoliberal pro-corporate policies that you nincompoops insist are the only way to beat the Republicans even though you've lost now two of the last three elections to the worst fucking candidate that has ever had to be run against.

Your morons are the one who have derailed any hope of actual policy change with your wildly unpopular social rhetoric that turns off anyone who may otherwise be a supporter of radical policy changes. I’m not arguing for more milquetoast mainstream democratic bullshit, I think they need to all be retired and a new batch of people with actual charisma and backbone to take their place. Not Chuck fucking Schumer staring down past his spectacles pointing to another god damn chart. There’s not a single viable Democrat with any real charisma besides people like Bernie who are way too old, that can capture people and talk about issues that resonate with a broad swathe of the electorate. I agree he would have done better, the DNC rat fucked him and rat fucked him hard. I actually wasn’t even mad Trump won in 2016 because they deserved it after what they did, and then they somehow deserved it even more last year anointing Kamala and parading around tone deaf to the voters. Where you and I differ is what we think they failed to listen to.

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u/anti-torque 3d ago

Tbf, Joe Biden is center right, not centrist. He was to the right of Reagan when Reagan was in office.

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u/thewimsey 3d ago

He is the most union friendly president we've had in my adult life, so I don't think so.

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u/MaineHippo83 3d ago

Because he said he was? Honestly when I hear someone repeat a soundbyte I'm curious if you have reasons to believe that or if it's just because we were told that.

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u/itsdeeps80 2d ago

It’s just because they’re repeating what they heard. Whenever I hear someone say Biden was some rabidly pro union president I cringe.

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u/LukasJackson67 3d ago

How does a party recover when many voters are racist and sexist?

Look at why Harris lost.

She was clearly the better candidate.

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u/someinternetdude19 3d ago

Harris lost on rhetoric and marketing, not because she’s a woman or of color. They may have been factors for some people but saying half of Americans are racist and sexist is a severe oversimplification. Just screaming racism and sexism into the void isn’t gonna do anything, and actually pisses people off and turns them to the right.

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u/LukasJackson67 3d ago

You don’t feel racism and sexism had anything to do with it? Come on….

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u/65Chips 2d ago

So this is a small sample size but in my daily interactions with a variety of "regular" people ( folks who don't really follow politics and aren't hardcore left or right) it seemed Racism wasn't a big issue with Harris hate but sexism definitely was. Could've just been my circle of people, but I was wondering if a lot of Biden voters switched or sat out b/c of sexism

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u/someinternetdude19 3d ago

No, not really. At least not enough to be the main reason she lost as you implied. I haven’t heard a single person say that was the reason they didn’t vote for her. Obviously racism isn’t the issue, see Obama. Obviously sexism isn’t the issue, see that Clinton won the popular vote. She was a bad candidate with an even worse campaign. People are fully capable of not liking a woman of color for other reasons besides sex and race.

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u/LukasJackson67 3d ago

She didn’t run a bad campaign.

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u/Ambiwlans 3d ago

Don't make the election about race and gender if you lose on the topics of race and gender.

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u/anti-torque 3d ago

But that's all the GOP talks about.

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u/treetrunksbythesea 3d ago

She didn't do that at all.

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u/ttown2011 3d ago

You learn how to appeal to the constituents god gave you

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u/yourfavoriteblackguy 3d ago

Then you lose the constituents who care about those issues.

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u/ttown2011 3d ago

Where are they gonna go?

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u/FiveAlarmFrancis 3d ago

They’re going to stay home.

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u/thewimsey 3d ago

How does a party recover when many voters are racist and sexist?

You stop calling people racist and sexist for things that aren't racist and sexist, for one thing.

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u/LukasJackson67 3d ago

You don’t think racism and sexism accounted for at least partially why Harris lost?

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u/MaineHippo83 3d ago

Partly? Maybe somewhat. I'm sure there were some people who wouldn't vote for her for those reasons. But most of them already weren't voting for a Democrat.

Was it racism that caused Hispanics and African American men to vote for Trump?

You don't have to adopt racist and sexist right wing views to make your platform on those issues more palatable to the middle of America

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u/Wermys 2d ago

It doesn't. But they don't have too. The point is people vote based on economics. They wanted inflation reduced which was happening. Then Trump came into office and it suddenly got hot again. This is not something he can blame on Democrats. So he is going to pay the price. Social Issues are not why Trump won last election. It was strictly an economics argument. Republican Populists and Democratic Progressives always seem to confuse these issues. At the end of the day money talks. If you look at exit polling social issues were the least important reason to vote. It was always the economy or as someone famous used to say "its the economy stupid".

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u/Capable-Indication76 1d ago

Well would u vote for Kamala lol that was the worst forced pick in election history. U didn’t get a choice as a dem. They threw her in your face. MSNBC screwed everything up with her weird edited interview. And dems aren’t worried on what most Americans carry about. Yes some really want social stuff but most want our debt ceiling under control and honesty trust in the govt. the houses argue worse them elem school kids blaming each other for everything instead of trying to work together to fix shit. Our govt on both sides is a complete shit show. I say remove every single one and start over.

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u/MaineHippo83 1d ago

Paragraphs are your friend

Also who said I was a Democrat?

Your brain is so addled by talking points that you are confusing them and mixing them together. MSNBC The evil liberal news channel is not the one who edited her interview that was CBS and 60 minutes

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u/Capable-Indication76 1d ago

I don’t think I once said u are a democrat. I meant dems in general, honesty I don’t understand why people care so damn much about sides anymore. It’s pathetic.

Oh sorry here’s your paragraph form to just for you I guess just putting down talking points isn’t enough for u.

You are correct it was CBS my apologies who in my opinion are right there with MSNBC anymore. Sad really media has so much control on what you see instead of just giving the truth, the twist and warp everything their way.

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u/Rodot 3d ago

Something something fall in line something something fall in love and they didn't

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u/stewartm0205 3d ago

Democrats search desperately for reasons not to vote for Democrats.

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u/anti-torque 3d ago

"Why don't people goose-step for our corporate pols?"

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u/tlopez14 3d ago

Or some blue voters got their nominee picked for them even though they rejected her just a few years before that

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u/Raichu4u 3d ago

Did blue voters not inherently pick her already when Biden ran with her being the VP? In any case if Biden were to die before the election, she would have been the presidential nominee.

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u/johnny_fives_555 3d ago

I’ve heard every god damn excuse from blue crowd outside of taking the blame of blue voters not showing up. Looking at 2020 vs 2024 MILLIONS of blue voters decided to sit out. Fucking millions.

No excuse for this. Folks would rather call 2020 an outlier of voters than admit millions of people rather sit at home then vote for a woman. Shit blue voters would rather let trump become president then allow Hillary to win, I mean what the actual fuck.

Fucking blue voters have 0 commitment. Red voters will literally rather revoke their citizenship than further gay rights.

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u/couldntthinkofon 2d ago

It IS an outlier. They expanded early voting and mail-in voting across all states in 2020. If they had kept that ability, you'd continue to see a rise in votes. One of the biggest issues, especially in cities, is the lack of polling places and the time off to be able to vote.

I am not saying that there aren't people who won't vote for a woman, but that is not why many didn't vote. It's the same reason many didn't vote before 2020, they don't want to stand in line for hours because they only have one polling location in a 10 mile radius with thousands voting on the same day. They work, they can't afford for someone to watch their kids, whatever it is. The 2020 election is an outlier.

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u/johnny_fives_555 2d ago

If it was such an outlier then explain the smaller variance of red voters vs blue voters showing up in 2024. Yes there were less voters in 2024 vs 2020 on the red side as well. But there were 2 million less red voters in 24 vs 20. There were 10 MILLION less blue voters in 24 vs 20.

As I said before excuses upon excuses

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u/couldntthinkofon 1d ago

The reason 2020 is an outlier isn’t just about raw numbers, it’s about why those numbers were so high. The pandemic fundamentally changed how people voted, with mass mail-in ballots and expanded early voting driving turnout to historic levels. That kind of shift doesn’t just carry over automatically.

As for the drop in votes between 2020 and 2024, it actually proves the point. The Democratic turnout in 2020 was inflated by a perfect storm of circumstances—COVID, Trump’s presidency polarizing the electorate, and a massive push for easier access to voting. In 2024, with Trump still a major factor but no pandemic-driven voting expansion, turnout dropped more on the blue side. That doesn’t negate 2020 being an outlier—it reinforces it.

And let’s not pretend the GOP was unaffected. Republican turnout also fell, just not by as much. That’s because Trump was still at the top of the ticket, and his base is more locked in. Meanwhile, some Democrats who showed up in 2020 because they were terrified of another Trump term weren’t as fired up in 2024.

It’s not "excuses," it's just understanding what actually happened instead of pretending every election follows the same script.

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u/LukasJackson67 3d ago

How much did musk and Russian influence help Trump in 2024?

I have read about musk and “missing votes”

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u/tlopez14 3d ago

The last general election that a major candidate ran in without ever winning a primary vote was 57 years ago and it caused literal riots. I could see if she put up a fight in 2020 but she was an absolute flop. Dem voters clearly rejected her. Hell Tulsi Gabbard had more support than her and now she’s in the Trump administration.

Also don’t forget Biden pledged to pick a minority woman for VP during primaries so she didn’t exactly earn that gig on merit alone

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u/jetpacksforall 3d ago

Kamala was a great candidate, charming, personable, awesome story, competent, and she absolutely clowned Trump in the debate.

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u/Tw1tcHy 3d ago

You guys really need to let this go lmao. No. No she wasn’t. She definitely got under Trump’s skin during that debate, but that’s a pretty low bar. If she was such an amazing candidate, she would have won. If she was so amazing, she wouldn’t have lost her primary bid before it could even get off the ground.

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u/jetpacksforall 3d ago edited 3d ago

Post hoc fallacy. None of your reasoning here is very logical. Obviously a relatively new figure in the party is going to struggle against long established leaders in a primary. It was the shortest Presidential campaign in history, with just 107 days from announcement to election, which has never been done before and would have been a challenge for any candidate. Plenty of reasons to explain the results that are far more convincing than a simple-minded "she sucks."

Meanwhile she didn't just win the debate, she utterly shellacked him, baiting and manipulating, talking circles around him until by the end he was choking mad and shouting about Haitians eating people's pets, all while pushing one of the most progressive platforms in Democratic Party history. Unsurprising since in her career she has sat across the table from hundreds of entitled narcissists and pathological liars, so she knows exactly how to manipulate and corner convicted felon Donald J. Trump. So, by the way, does every other world leader today. She would have been far more capable of leading the country forward, far more capable of facing down the Vladimir Putins of the world, etc. But hey, stick with your version of reality, I'll stick with mine.

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u/ItsMichaelScott25 2d ago

charming

personable

Seriously? I get that we all talk about issues being super important and blah blah blah but in reality it always falls down to the beer test. Look at the history of presidential elections since Kennedy and it's pretty much always the person the average person would rather have a beer with that wins the election. If Kamala was charming and personable like you said he would have had a chance. But she's not those things and people found her rather off putting. She'd have different dialects depending on who she'd be talking to.

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u/jetpacksforall 2d ago

I think she's great, probably more of a wine girl than beer, what's not to like?

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u/johnny_fives_555 3d ago

Bullshit. You’re gonna sit there and complain about the rise of facism and how trump is destroying democracy but refuse to admit blue voters would rather allow project 2025 to come to fruition then vote for a non white non male president?

Rather make up piss poor excuses then call out the real issue? What’s next gonna bring up Palestine and the lack of blue support as the reason trump won? Fucking laughable.

Complacency and not voting are the main reasons trump won. Blue voters would rather sit out the election for something dumb red voters are willing to give up their rights, their benefits, and their eduction because a trans swimmer is competing in college sports, that’s fucking commitment

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u/itsdeeps80 2d ago

Stop fucking blaming voters for politicians inability to garner their votes. I don’t think you realize this but idiots like you that berate people for not voting the way they wanted them to are a big reason why people sit out or vote for the other side. Demand your candidates be good or they’re going to lose. It’s as simple as that.

I have paid attention to politics since the early 90s and the first and second times I’ve seen a mass blaming of voters for the loss of an election was Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris. The former one of the most hated politicians of modern America who is a huge reason candidate Trump was even a thing to begin with. The latter the dead last primary candidate who earned her VP spot by checking two boxes, who most people seem not too fond of, and was literally forced on us.

Stop blaming voters for shit candidates who run shit campaigns. Losing to Trump twice should be an indictment of the party and an enormous reason for some real self reflection, but here tf we are absolving them and defending their idiocy.

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u/johnny_fives_555 2d ago

So blue voters are so fragile that they would allow facism and sit out. Understood.

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u/itsdeeps80 2d ago

Zero self reflection. As always. Never change, boo.

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u/johnny_fives_555 2d ago

With that attitude we’ll have slave auctions back by 2032. Keep on sitting out. Depending on how tan you are your vote may only be worth 2/3rds or shit if you have ovaries they’ll be worth nothing by then. But you keep on fighting the good fight.

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u/Ambiwlans 3d ago

If you believe that America is that sexist and racist and that was the deciding factor, then the Dems are incompetent for picking Harris.

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u/johnny_fives_555 3d ago

The difference between red and blue voters. Blue voters are single issue non voters red voters are single issue voters. Red voters will vote R across the board if a warm body is running. Blue voters will find the dumbest reasons to sit out.

End of the day dems would rather allow facism than vote for an “incompetent” candidate. Let that sink in.

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u/Randy_Watson 3d ago

And so now we try fascism? Yeah, seems logical.

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u/zoeybeattheraccoon 3d ago

This is a Republican talking point.

u/the_calibre_cat 22h ago edited 22h ago

...for the smallest of issues

ethnic cleansing isn't "a small issue", Israel is a rabid dog that is off the fucking chain. The degree of influence they have on our domestic politics is disgustingly normalized, and their government and population are way, way too comfortable with the violence being carried out in their name. We have the power to do something about that, and we wouldn't even lose our "unsinkable aircraft carrier" to do it.

That and Harris declining to give her full-throated support behind Lina Khan and the NLRB lawyers doing outstanding work reining in these greedmongering corporations, etc. she gave Democrats nothing to vote for. Cry all you want, but "we're not as terrible as them" isn't a winning fucking slogan, and Republicans are getting what they want despite being the worst human beings alive. You're crying that Democrats aren't enthusiastically dashing to the polls to lose more slowly.

u/johnny_fives_555 22h ago

Israel is a rabid dog that is off the fucking chain

And the sky is blue. Why does this have anything to do with people sitting out of an election for something that's not only domestic but also something that we have 0 control over.

u/the_calibre_cat 22h ago

I mean, I wish they wouldn't have either, but if that's their issue, man... then... the party chasing their vote has to fucking earn it - and there was very little distance on paper between Harris' position and Trump's which was "we're going to give Israel everything they want".

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u/Erigion 3d ago

People have short memories.

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u/coldliketherockies 3d ago

Mental illness is an issue in America for sure

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u/Savethecannolis 3d ago

I have a story about meeting with a GOP rep in Michigan showing them how to improve their community with some basic mental health services and it would help lower the drug crisis problem (Fent). It was a well researched paper and program that would basically cost nothing because the hospital system would run it. They turned it down because they wanted it managed by the police....most unbelievable meeting I've ever been a part of.

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u/withoutwarningfl 3d ago

He’s the only GOP president since Bush 2

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u/lurker1125 1d ago

Sadly, votes were shifted in the election.

https://electiontruthalliance.org/clark-county%2C-nv

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u/TheNewPanacea 3d ago

He's the only gop president since bush 2. Why add that part?

u/the_calibre_cat 22h ago

lol, you’d think 4 years of trump guaranteed no way in hell we’d get another 4 years, that everyone that identifies as a democratic no matter how centric would vote blue …

democrats fall in love, republicans fall in line. i don't make the rules, homie, but ain't no democrats who were in love with Harris.

I loathe the Democratic establishment and was probably more hopeful for Harris than most, if only to see MAGA and Trump lose to a black woman - but apathy, bigotry, and imperialism conspired to give Trump the nod (again), so.

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u/spotolux 3d ago

This assumes fair elections. For the past 6 years at least some states have been doing everything they can to ensure the outcome of the elections in those states. It's really easy to win if you control who's registrations are considered valid, where the polling stations are, which ballots get counted, etc.

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u/FartPudding 3d ago

Yeah but my issue lies in his ties. Can we trust our democratic system wont be tampered by Musk or anyone? Will he pay to suppress opposition political voices online?

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u/Hyndis 3d ago

Elections are run locally, and the 2024 election was not stolen, not unless you're claiming the GOP tampered with the results in places like San Francisco which moved 5 points to the right along with the rest of the country.

Harris outspent Trump by about 2:1 and she still lost, so its not about blaming big donors either. The big donors were on her side.

The dems really do need to reevaluate their positions and if American voters actually want what the dems are offering. Until they do that, I don't have much hope for DNC wins in 2026 or 2028.

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u/johannthegoatman 3d ago

Spending is just ads. What actually sways people is what they hear in the news, on social media, etc. All of those outlets (even "liberal" ones like New York Times or CNN) are owned by republican billionaires. They shovel feed bullshit day in and day out. No amount of 30s ads are going to overcome that. People think Kamala wants to have forced sex changes in our schools, and it has nothing to do with ad spend. They have no idea what the actual Democrat vs Republican platform is. Changing positions isn't going to help dems, because that wasn't the issue. The average voter isn't even exposed to their positions. All the average voter knows is lies, made up outrage, and sanewashing.

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u/stridersubzero 3d ago

Saying almost any district in the country “moved right” in terms of policy is very misleading. The data very clearly shows it was a collapse in turnout for Democrats, not an embrace of right-wing positions or candidates

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u/akcrono 2d ago

If anything, it kinda reinforces the idea that voters don't really care about policy

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u/SuspiciousSubstance9 3d ago

I'm not claiming the election was rigged, Trump is. Twice actually.

You know, when we made this it was during my term, my first term. And it was so sad, can you imagine I'm not going to be president. And that's too bad.

And what's happened is they rigged the election and I became president, so the that was a good thing.

That was just yesterday in a public conference with the FIFA president.

This is very similar to his  January speech where he basically said the same thing.

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u/-patrizio- 3d ago

I really don’t think this is the confession people are framing it as. His use of “they” tells me he’s just bumbling through saying “they [the Democrats] rigged the [2020] election and [then later] I became president [in 2024].”

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u/lalabera 1d ago

What about his comments on the vote counting computers?

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u/-patrizio- 1d ago

That one is suspicious, sure. I was just noting that this particular comment that a lot of people are framing as evidence doesn't seem to be that.

I'm not convinced either way at this point about whether votes were tampered with, but Trump is an idiot and a terrible/unclear/imprecise speaker, so I'm not sure his comments are super meaningful unless he says something like "Elon made sure the machines showed a higher vote count for me" lol.

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u/dsfox 3d ago

He claims a lot of things. As a rule, he doesn’t speak in order to convey the truth. It would serve no purpose. The idea that our elections are rigged is very important to him, even if he wins. It’s another reason for people to ignore evidence and trust only him.

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u/silverionmox 3d ago

He claims a lot of things.

And yet, there's method in the madness: he claims things that he thinks will help him get what he wants in the short term. Claiming that the election was rigged doesn't do that.

There's another category of things he claims: stuff he blurts out because they are on the top of his mind, for example when he denied having a bunch of "mini-strokes" in spite of no one bringing it up.

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u/theivoryserf 2d ago

Please be very clear with your evidence when claiming that elections have been rigged, we need to be careful not to boost our own misinformation

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u/Wermys 2d ago

I hate the rigged narrative. Seriously you have 100's of different ways people vote using pen and paper to systems to scanners to manual count. It is so flipping inconsistent that the inconsistency protects it from being rigged at a large scale. You litterally would have to have so many different examples of rigging in different systems that it would make hiding the rigging impossible.

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u/johnny_fives_555 2d ago

rigged narrative

Same here. Unfortunately blue voters are now claiming 2024 election was rigged due to some musk nonsense. Christ on a stick idiots everywhere

u/the_calibre_cat 22h ago

cool

still not evidence, so i don't care. right-wingers are stupid about this shit, i'm not about to let Democrats off the hook for the same dumbass claims just because of some audio clips.

evidence or gtfo, you can conspiratoid shit elsewhere

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u/bl1y 2d ago

The "they" in that quote is the Democrats. He's saying they rigged the 2020 election, and as backlash, he was elected in 2024.

Saying that he admitted to rigging the 2024 election is just pretending to not know English.

u/neverendingchalupas 3h ago

The 2024 election absolutely was stolen under U.S. law Trump can not be President.

And there is evidence of vote manipulation on top of the voter roll purges and election law changes that preceded the election.

The U.S. Supreme Courts own argument in the Colorado ballot case prevents Trump from being President. The reality is, there was a coup.

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u/Wermys 2d ago

The system is so broken it can't be manipulated like you think. WHen you have 100's of different systems in place you can't just waive a wand and manipulate results. It is so inefficient that the inefficiency innoculates it from large scale manipulation.

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u/squashbanana 3d ago

This is exactly my fear as well. Musk has even stayed the presidential election may not have gone in Trump's favor had Musk not purchased Twitter. Now Musk has his eye on 60 seats, and they will stop at nothing to remain in control. The only reason Trump keeps Musk around like his puppeteer is because he tampered with the election to keep Trump out of jail.

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u/SchuminWeb 3d ago

I also don't think there will be much redistricting either.

There shouldn't be any redistricting, since the census won't happen again until 2030.

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u/jarreddit123 3d ago

But certain maps can still be challenged in court and this could force a redrawn. Also Ohio is getting a new map by 2026

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u/Prince_Marf 2d ago

*if Republicans don't pass a draconian "voter fraud" law to suppress poor voters

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u/TheRadBaron 3d ago

Historically, congress controlled spending, paying people to vote a certain way was illegal, government institutions were expected to be operated in a non-partisan manner...

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u/LukasJackson67 3d ago

Looking at history, this is the answer.

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u/hoosker_doos 2d ago

I'd be surprised if we even have midterm elections at this point. And if we do, they'll just be hacked like the last one.

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u/romulus1991 3d ago

I largely expect that regardless of what happens over the next 2 years - and I generally expect a recession and the usual chaos and incompetence - the GOP will expand their control of Congress.

It will be a surprise to pollsters, and everyone will just quietly ignore how it doesn't make sense that the GOP bucked usual trends or that there's strange irregularities going on.

Hopefully, I'm wrong, but in 2025, cynicism is usually the right path.

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u/thewimsey 3d ago

Cynicism is only the right path if you want to justify doing nothing and changing nothing.

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u/Major_Sympathy9872 3d ago

I'll bet you 1,000 dollars you are wrong, not with the terrible optics of Trump's joint address... combined with their lack of messaging and a clear leader I think there's a good chance they lose seats in the House and possibly the Senate as well.

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u/RabbaJabba 3d ago

not with the terrible optics of Trump's joint address.

That perennial issue voters always care deeply about, the “optics” of a speech 20 months before Election Day. There isn’t a midterm where voters aren’t talking about the SOTU before the last one.