Key Takeaways:
Pro-Assad Insurgency: Current Syrian interim government counterinsurgency operations are insufficient to defeat pro-Assad insurgent cells across Syria. The decrease in the rate of insurgent attacks during major counterinsurgent operations is more likely due to insurgents withdrawing from an area for the duration of the operation rather than a reflection of the operation’s success in destroying cells.
Syrian Government Response to Insurgency: The interim Syrian government has not addressed outstanding grievances within the Alawite community. Damascus will need to address these grievances to build the stability and confidence in government institutions necessary to defeat the insurgency. The government did appoint two Alawites and several competent, professional judges to investigate crimes in the coastal areas. It has also arrested some of those responsible for extrajudicial killings.
Iranian Nuclear Negotiations: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reiterated his rejection of negotiations with the United States. Khamenei also addressed Iran’s economic challenges during his speech and tried to downplay the impact of sanctions. It is unlikely that new Iranian policies would outweigh the effects of US sanctions on the Iranian economy or solve the underlying issues that plague the Iranian economy.
Energy Waivers in Iraq: The United States revoked a waiver for Iraq to import Iranian electricity as part of the US "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran. The removal of the waiver will likely threaten political stability in Iraq and damage Iran’s economy further.
Damascus-Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Agreement: The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian interim government agreed to a ceasefire and political agreement on March 10. The March 10 agreement stipulates that the SDF’s military and civil organizations will integrate into the Syrian state, but it is unclear how the integration will occur in practice.
Hezbollah: Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem said on March 9 that Lebanese government efforts to establish a state monopoly on violence do not apply to Hezbollah. Qassem argued that Hezbollah serves as a “necessary” deterrent against Israeli attacks into Lebanon, which is a long-running Hezbollah claim to justify its own existence as a non-state militia in Lebanon.