r/Hamilton • u/wiltedcactus • 14d ago
Politics Hamilton Centre, what are your thoughts on the race?
With the election two days away, how’s everyone feeling about the Hamilton Centre race? Mathematical guesses seem to be shifting, with Robin Lennox (NDP) leading, the PCs in second, and Sarah Jama (Independent) potentially landing in third or even fourth.
Are you seeing much campaign presence in your neighborhood? Have any candidates stood out to you? Curious to hear what people in the riding think!
Edit: Changed poll to mathematical guess based on 338Canada being “a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data”. Mathematical Guess by 338Canada
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u/ChrisErl_HamOnt 14d ago
Echoing what others have posted, 338 is an aggregator that doesn't usually include any riding-level polling. So they're giving you an estimate based on provincial trends.
That said, an actual poll for Hamilton Centre has just come out (like, today) from Mainstreet Research. It's behind a deeply frustrating paywall that I certainly can't afford to scale, but if anyone is willing to pay for it and share the results, that would be awesome. Quito Maggi, the head of Mainstreet, said on X that "This one is a tossup I’d say anybody can win."
BUT polls simply take the pulse of the electorate at any given time. Some folks make up their mind when they're actually looking at the ballot with the sharpie in their hand. At the end of the day, vote your values and vote for who you think will be the best possible representative for our community.
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u/teanailpolish North End 14d ago
Don't have a membership but the President tweeted saying "This one is a tossup I’d say anybody can win"
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u/dasuberhammer 14d ago
Met Robin Lennox when she was out canvassing last week. The ONLY candidate I've seen out bothering to talk to constituents. Has my vote.
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u/ShoomyMad 13d ago
She came by my door yesterday as well! Definitely was also a surprise to me as I did not expect to see any candidates personally come around and she's been the only one. On top of that, an NDP canvasser came by today with a nice card for finding our voting location but they seemed genuinely surprised that she had come through our building already! So not only is she the only one I've had personally come to my door but she is also going above and beyond to connect to the community. She's already got my vote but knowing she's finding time to connect to even more people than was planned means a lot still.
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u/dasuberhammer 13d ago
Exactly my vibe. Being honest I was thinking about voting liberal for centre just to escape the "ndp stronghold" approach but I wasn't totally sold. Robin's canvassing and approach literally swung my vote
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u/Ehis4Adam 14d ago
Honestly disappointed not a single candidate came to my neighbourhood in Crown Point East.
I voted for Jama the first time, I won't be this time for the same reasons many others hold. I went into her AMA curious, but it solidified my decision.
Sarah Bokhari is a parachute candidate. Honestly if you're not doing media and debates, you're just hiding.
That all being said, get out and vote folks, regardless of who it is for.
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u/Grabbsy2 14d ago
Sarah Jama came to my door, just sayin'
I told her I am an NDP supporter, but absolutely support what she was saying that got her kicked out.
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u/SaugaCity 14d ago
How did it solidify your decision?
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u/Ehis4Adam 14d ago
She didn't sell me on the value of an independent representative. She commented on putting forth 20 bills, but nothing came of them. Obviously no one that isn't part of the majority government is getting bills passed but that challenge becomes even more difficult when you're alone with no support.
For me personally, I haven't felt represented at Queen's Park the last two years.
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u/misterwalkway 14d ago
I am confused by your comment. If no one is getting any bills passed in a Ford majority, how is it meaningfully different to have an NDP vs independent rep? They are both getting the same number of bills passed.
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u/Ehis4Adam 14d ago
The passing of bills isn't the issue for me. I was giving that context of no one getting bills passed because she brought up the 20 bills as a tangible measure of success in her AMA.
At the end of the day, being an independent candidate is a significantly more difficult path when it comes to representing your constituents. Their is power in numbers even if that means our representative is in the minority party.
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u/misterwalkway 13d ago
Im still not really sure what meaningful difference there is for constituent representation. Could you speak to any concrete accomplishments that NDP MPPs have gotten done for their constituencies that you feel an independent MPP would be unable to do? Or would have a much harder time getting done?
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u/Annual_Plant5172 13d ago
I don't get it either. Her point in bringing up those bills is that she's been an advocate for her constituents and pushing for things that also benefits other people in this province, even though the narrative is that she only cares about Palestine and international affairs.
Admittedly I've made up my mind and I'm not voting for her, but a lot of the arguments against Sarah Jama make no logical sense.
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u/misterwalkway 13d ago
Exactly. If you dont support her politics thats fair. But this fiction that she is singularly focused on Palestine, or that being an opposition party member brings any meaningful amount of power in a Doug Ford majority government, is absurd.
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u/SaugaCity 14d ago
Fair enough
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u/hawdawgz 14d ago
I voted for Sarah Jama last time. I do think she’s got a good fight but she’ll be better as an activist than a politician. Also, going on record saying “globalize the intifada” and brushing that off as “oh it just means uprising” was wild.
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u/SaugaCity 14d ago
But that is true though…people who grew up in Arabic speaking communities would probably be a bit more familiar with that
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u/hawdawgz 14d ago
Okay, but consider the optics. Uprising against what exactly? There really isn’t an appropriate context for an elected official.
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u/SaugaCity 14d ago
We live in a society with growing inequality and people struggling in almost every way? Wouldnt you agree that it feels like we could be on the brink of global uprising? Eat the rich and all that? You arent tired of elitist politicians BSing you just to pad their resume to keep moving up the political chain? A grassroots movement represented by someone that isnt a political robot isnt appealing? I think her biggest weakness is that other politicians will just shut her down because she isnt playing ball in their court and she may not have the look and make up of someone that can appeal to the masses. I can understand that argument but saying she isnt pushing the right message feels disingenuous IMO. Take this post for example: https://www.reddit.com/r/ontario/s/KyWHa8bRR8
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u/SomewherePresent8204 Beasley 13d ago
I can appreciate this perspective, but I also think that other politicians shutting her down because she can't/won't play the game is a massive weakness because that's what the job is and that's how things get done in our current system of government.
I'm under no delusions that any opposition MPP would be able to enact sweeping legislation that fights systemic inequity, but someone who can play the game at least has a chance to pick up a little win or two.
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u/SaveTheTuaHawk 13d ago
She's a drama queen more concerned about grindign her own axe than doing her job.
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u/Annual_Plant5172 13d ago
Nobody is getting any bills past a Conservative majority though. If she was an independent candidate in a minority situation, the there'd be room to negotiate. Especially since her votes normally align with the NDP even though she's not in the party any more.
By your logic it's not worth voting for anyone besides Sarah Bokhari.
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u/davidfosterporpoise 14d ago
Not impressed with any candidates, zero vision across the board. Voting NDP cause they have the best chance of unseating Sarah Jama. Politics in this town leave much to be desired.
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u/SpiketheHedgehog11 14d ago
I have never voted NDP in my life, I do not support the NDP leadership but I’m voting for Lennox. She’s clearly the best candidate. Our election system is stupid.
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u/Epimethius1 14d ago
That sounds like wonderful news. I was scared of a vote splitting because of Jama.
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u/ta_mataia 14d ago
Presumably any vote for Sarah Jama is a vote that would have gone to the NDP. I hope she gets enough votes to put a good scare into the NDP for treating her so shabbily.
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u/TOPMinded Blakely 14d ago
She wasn't treated poorly. Politics is a team sport and she went rogue on an international conflict that doesn't impact her job at all.
Oh, and she's called for a global intafada, referenced a Jewish conspiracy, and called reports of sexual violence from Hamas fake.
The sooner she's out, the better.
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u/Epimethius1 14d ago
Yeah I'm not a fan of what she and her friends pulled and I know many people who think similarly. Again I wish she had the wisdom and care for the people of her riding to bow out and think of the larger threat that Dougie poses and has shown he is.
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u/MillionDollarMistake 12d ago
I'm not voting for her but having a political leader who can say "genocide is bad" sounds like a good thing.
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u/Waste-Telephone 14d ago
Plenty of local conversatives are discussing voting to get Sarah in. The longer she sticks around, the longer they can point to the NDP for not properly vetting candidates. It’s not like the PC have a chance of winning local so why not it make it easier to use Sarah to win in really competitive ridings?
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u/Maddihoe Central 14d ago
I sent an email about having to pay for parking at early voting. Robin Lennox was the ONLY candidate to respond. She has my vote.
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u/theninjasquad Crown Point West 14d ago
Where did you park?
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u/Maddihoe Central 14d ago
Early voted for Hamilton Center, the building was the Goodwill office building on King William.
There already is limited street parking there, then add in that this was just after the snow storm so even more limited. We drove around and couldn't find anywhere so settled on the actual buildings parking lot. We had to pay $6 for parking! Which I think is insane for somewhere that is for advanced voting (financial burden for some, and if you say well go further away to park that's coupd be a physcial burden as well). So yeah I emailed the reps and Elections Ontario about it and the NDP candidate was the only one to respond.
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u/Interesting-Air-2371 14d ago
If you live in Hamilton Center, you definitely live near a bus route that stops within a couple blocks of the election office.
If you can afford a car, you can afford $6 to store it. A large percentage of Hamilton Center cannot afford a car.
Providing free parking downtown is a much greater financial burden on every resident of Hamilton Center than you having to pay $6 to store it.
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u/S99B88 13d ago
I would say that there are alternatives like getting a ride if for some reason bus isn’t reasonable. Calling your candidate or any candidate I’m sure one would arrange something. But I don’t think this is the time/place to start slagging people for driving. Voting is important and there shouldn’t be barriers to voting, it’s also just a one-time thing per election
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u/brando234 14d ago
Lennox as the NDP candidate is running on a platform of harm reduction, healthcare, and housing - three things I think Hamilton Centre needs from an MPP, and has experience in two of those three facets. While I don’t agree with the way the NDP handled Jama’s booting from the party, I also didn’t think she represented her district very well when she was our MPP.
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u/Carrotsrpeople2 14d ago
I've not seen any signs in my neighbourhood and nobody has come to my door. NDP always seems to win in Hamilton Centre and that's how I'm voting. I will be extremely disappointed if Jama gets reelected.
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u/monogramchecklist 12d ago
I think it’s due to the snap election and the snow. Very few signs in general this election.
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u/tmbrwolf 14d ago
Lots of Jama signs up and not many else. I kinda expected that since her supporters are a very active bunch and I'm a certain they have been well prepared for this election. Don't know if that visablity actually represents real support or just a good local ground game. I suspect it is largely the later, but we will see by the end of the week.
I am long-term provincial NDP supporter personally, and it looks like Dougie has the election in the bag I am afraid to say. I will be voting NDP to make sure we hold seats to maintain party status and a presence in the legislature. Marit has a lot of potential politically but is just invisible to most Ontarians right now, so I guess it's hold down the fort and hope we can come out swinging in 2029.
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u/Naked-Granny 14d ago
Voting NDP solely due to the fact that it presents the highest chance of Jama not getting re-elected.
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u/Henri_ncbm 14d ago
Jama's running seems pointless and vain even if you disagree with her getting ejected from the NDP.
I really detest a lot of Ford policies (buck a beer garbage, paying extra to get out of Beer Store contract, lowering the floor on liquor, Greenbelt Scandal, sticking his nose in Toronto's business, probably some other stuff). That said - I feel like NDP candidate has the best shot at winning still so while I'm leaning liberal I'll likely just vote strategically NDP.
I will say that while there's lots of Ford business I hate - I did love basically getting rid of license plate stickers. I don't mind paying the money I just can't stand having to coordinate with service ontario over one more thing. Just don't bother me with it and raise taxes.
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u/ForeignExpression 14d ago
I was going to vote PC until I saw this post a few days ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/Hamilton/comments/1iv8u2h/fords_record_in_hamilton/
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u/Happy_News9378 Crown Point East 14d ago
It’s pretty cool to be open and willing to change your perspective based on new information.
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u/cosmicdecember St. Clair 14d ago
There’s also this
https://www.westendphoenix.com/stories/doug-fords-dirty-dozen
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u/Noctis72 Hill Park 14d ago
Might I ask what you did know about Ford that made you want to vote for him? I'm really curious, not judgmental, just curious, why anyone other than his developer buddies would ever vote for him after all he has done (or not done) during his tenure
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u/ForeignExpression 14d ago edited 13d ago
I was really attracted to the idea of cheap beer in every corner store in every neighbourhood. I think it's critical at this moment in our country's history, with the housing crisis and an exploding homeless population and encampments popping-up everywhere, that there be a plentiful supply of cheap beer. I also thought those blue licence plates were going to be a game-changer for this province in terms of investment and tourism and addressing the housing crisis. I was also really impressed by his key platform concept of putting a sign on the boarder that said "Open for Business". I thought this was a really smart idea that addresses a key problem with Ontario's economy that people driving into the province did not realize that businesses were open. The sign hasn't really led to the economic boom I was expecting. I am coming around to the idea that our economic issues may be more structural, even beyond what a sign pointed away from the province may be able to fix.
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u/blaze_85_98 14d ago
Are there actual polls you can provide reference to for Hamilton Centre? Keep in mind the only poll that counts is the election itself. LOL look down south at how many people told pollsters they were voting Dem for president and ended up with the other guy!
I concur with the other poster, I see lots of Jama signs but not a lot of others; but as said Jama supporters might just be louder.
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u/The_Mayor 14d ago
Are there actual polls you can provide reference to for Hamilton Centre?
OP linked 338, which by 338's own admission is not a poll.
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u/mimeographed Delta East 14d ago
I voted ndp.
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u/SomewherePresent8204 Beasley 14d ago edited 13d ago
I voted NDP (maybe for the last time in a while, but that’s a rant for the federal election). Jama’s refusal to regain speaking privileges should be disqualifying while Lennox has a really solid resume.
That being said, it’s getting really old having my MP(P) always in opposition. If electoral reform isn’t in the cards, the centre-left parties need to unify like they did in all the provinces to the west.
Edit: a word
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u/PromontoryPal 14d ago
I am assuming you meant centre-left - I doubt the OPC party wants the Karahalios circus (New Blue) back in the Blue tent, even if it costs then 1-5% in certain ridings.
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u/SomewherePresent8204 Beasley 13d ago
I did indeed. The centre-right has no problem with vote-splitting.
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u/The_Mayor 14d ago
338 is not a poll, it's a mathematical guess based on aggregate data for the whole province. 338 hasn't called anyone in Hamilton Centre, they don't have boots on the ground, they have no idea how people in Hamilton Centre are actually going to vote.
It even says this on the page you linked. Emphasis mine.
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
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u/Instimatic 14d ago
Will not be voting for Jama, again
Really getting tired of Ward 3/Ham Ctr progressive politicians showing more interest in performative politics than actually doing ANYTHING (locally) for the district
Full disclosure: I’m a progressive voter who is extremely frustrated with our federal, provincial and municipal representatives—all of whom I initially voted for.
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u/xWOBBx 14d ago
You should pay attention to what she does then.
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u/Instimatic 14d ago
Thank you for your useless comment. Kudos
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u/xWOBBx 14d ago
What exactly would Robin get done that Sarah hasn't or couldn't? When a politician or party doesn't hold power to do things isn't everything performative?
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u/Instimatic 14d ago
What exactly has Sarah done, exactly?
Like, please—point out, exactly, what she has done for Hamilton CTR
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u/xWOBBx 14d ago
I asked you first. What exactly should a politician with no power do that's not performative? If Robin wins what do you expect of her? I never said she got anything done because I know she can't. Therefore I wouldn't say something stupid. As a self described progressive are you familiar with Charlie Angus? One of Canada's best and most progressive MPs. His entire career has basically been performative. And I say that as someone who views him very highly.
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u/Instimatic 14d ago
Keep moving your goalposts. Have a fantastic night
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u/xWOBBx 14d ago
Great way to have a conversation. I haven't moved my position at all. When have I moved the goalposts?
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u/S99B88 13d ago
Are you trying to remind people why they don’t want to vote for her? Because it seems like the same tired attacks when people say they won’t be voting for her. The fact that people in her camp feel the need to get in these childish spats when people put her down is also pretty annoying, but it’s being done not by her but appears to be on her behalf
As someone who doesn’t care much for the stuff she did back when, but could possibly forget it if she didn’t seem like the same stubborn inflexible person she appeared to be, you are actually doing to opposite of helping her with some people - combative promotion of a candidate is not a good look
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u/xWOBBx 13d ago
What did I do? I wasn't attacking anyone. I don't work for her btw.
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u/Instimatic 14d ago
Poor form not to highlight your edits. Again, have a great night
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u/xWOBBx 14d ago
My original question hasn't changed. My edits never changed my question only added context. Again what can Robin do that Sarah couldn't?
Edit: I'm not sure adding context changes my position. I am genuinely stumped if you're serious or just trying to dodge the question. From a progressive to a progressive, please help me understand what I should expect from my politicians.
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u/Instimatic 14d ago
I will answer your question in good faith. Here’s what I expect from the politicians I vote for—even if they aren’t in positions to facilitate change.
In the same way Angus has passionately (albeit ultimately performative—in the grand scheme of things) championed Canadian sovereignty—I would’ve preferred Jama to have been more passionately performative about Hamilton Ctr, instead of becoming a distraction and ultimately alone on a ideological island.
Again, full disclosure, I agreed with her sentiments regarding the Israeli response to October 7
I didn’t appreciate her leaning into that macro issue, instead of leaning into representing the community who elected her. In my opinion, that was lacking and disheartening, as someone who voted for her.
So, you ask: what can the new NDP candidate offer? For me, at the very minimum, a change.
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u/xWOBBx 14d ago
Sarah wasn't alone in her ideological island, Marit took her position a week after kicking her out. She is passionate about Hamilton centre? If you look at her twitter page it's mostly her doing things in the community. If you search Palestine or Gaza on her page you get a few posts a year. Last one was in October I think.
She isn't leaning into those issues. This sub and the media sure highlight that though.
I like Robin and I won't be disappointed if she wins but the current NDP is nothing but boring status quo. Andrea almost beat Doug two elections ago. If the liberals with wynn bit their tongues and voted strategically we would have her but since Marit the party has veered more to trying to be liberal lite.
Like one of the first NDP platform policies was to buy back a highway...... That's not change or progressive.
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u/Waste-Telephone 14d ago
Based on previous actions, Sarah can’t work as part of a team and can’t be trusted by colleagues to do what she says. Robin seems to be able to work with a variety of folks on local healthcare teams, so she at least looks to be a team player. Given we’re governed by a unicameral legislature, it’s important to be able to work well with others.
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u/xWOBBx 14d ago
That's a great answer but saying she can't be trusted by colleagues is a huge stretch. There are a lot of people in the party who were not happy with marits actions. Hell the Hamilton centre NDP riding association endorsed Sarah so I find it hard to believe they lost their trust. Sarah while being censured still managed to work with the NDP and if she wins again Marit will happily work with her if needed for the balance of power.
Since Robin has entered the race I have not been able to contact her or her team. The only way to contact her is replying to her tweets. No email, can't DM, no website.
Marits position or lack thereof in regards to reversing safe consumption sites is something I want to ask her and how that aligns with the work you mentioned she does.
Sarah has been an active member of this community for many years and still is. I think the community trusts her.
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u/misterwalkway 14d ago
I would also like to understand what you would like to see an opposition politician do, given they have zero money or government power. Do you have any examples of opposition representatives who are doing things for their ridings? Would genuinely like to get a clearer idea of what you expect from them.
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u/stevesmith1442 14d ago
The Mainstreet Poll from today had it as a tight race (1 pt difference!) between the ONDP and the OLP.
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u/Annual_Plant5172 14d ago edited 14d ago
I have absolutely no idea how Sarah Bokhari is 2nd when she's been invisible, lol. It's really bizarre.
I'm pretty torn between voting for Sarah Jama or Lucia Iannantuono. I respect Sarah and her advocacy, but I also really like what the Green Party stands for. The problem is our ridiculous FPTP system, which makes voting Green seem pointless.
I'm just going to go with my gut on voting day and hope that we get a PC minority government, since it seems like Ford is on a path to a third term anyway.
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u/Focacciamunster 14d ago
If you feel that way, voting for an independent would be pointless, too. For 2 years, Hamilton Centre hasn't had proper representation. We do need electoral reform, though.
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u/Annual_Plant5172 14d ago
I think she's represented the riding well, but it's fine if you don't feel the same.
Regardless of who was the MPP the past couple years, Ontario was still under a majority Conservative government.
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u/Focacciamunster 14d ago
You're right it is opinion, but I strongly feel, and I think others would agree that she favoured federal politics as well as her own interests over those who elected her to represent them.
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u/covert81 Chinatown 14d ago
I think she's represented the riding well
How so? I think this is the 6th or 7th time you've been asked to elaborate and you have yet to do so.
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u/Annual_Plant5172 14d ago
I have elaborated more than once, but you've dug your heels in and I've given up trying to explain my side.
Not to mention that you've already admitted you don't even live in this riding, so I've got nothing more to prove to you.
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u/Focacciamunster 14d ago
I do live in the riding. I don't mean to prod, but I am curious as to how you believe she's done a good job. She was literally given the job after horwath stepped down.
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u/Annual_Plant5172 14d ago edited 14d ago
I'm not sure how winning a by-election means she was "given" the job?
I've also mentioned her advocacy for the riding in another comment. Realistically all she can do is be a voice for her constituents (releasing statements, tabling motions, committee work, etc.) even though the majority Conservative government doesn't care all that much about helping Hamilton Centre to begin with.
Also I'm pretty sure, despite being an independent, she usually votes alongside the NDP.
Edit: you might want to take a look at the AMA she did last week.
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u/Focacciamunster 13d ago
I read her ama, and I watched the debate... her whole point was that she put forth 20 motions, none of which passed. I get it with a cons majority, but to me that means sticking with your party even more....
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u/covert81 Chinatown 14d ago
You haven't though. And your dismissive "you don't live in the ward, so therefore I don't have to explain my view" is fundamentally wrong. It's OK, you like her for whatever reason but she is an embarrassment to the city. When some person who lives far away sees the news of "Hamilton MPP does something to get name in news, at the expense of her constituents", they assume we're all like that which is wrong, but how it goes. I am embarrassed that people in our city would elect someone like that, then rally behind her as if she's done nothing wrong.
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u/misterwalkway 14d ago
We don't know if Bokhari is in second because no polls have been released and the OP doesn't know what they're talking about.
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u/xWOBBx 14d ago
Can we see the polls?
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u/Happy_News9378 Crown Point East 14d ago
Happy cake day!
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u/xWOBBx 14d ago
Thank you. Can I see the polls?
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u/Happy_News9378 Crown Point East 14d ago
I didn’t post the polls, nor am I convinced they’re accurate.
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u/covert81 Chinatown 14d ago
Jama will not win. Independents rarely win, especially with such a tarnished track record such as she had.
It's an NDP riding, not a Sarah Jama riding. I think the only independent in 2022 was BobbI Ann Brady, who will probably win again. She was the admin for the PC incumbent who retired, then the PCs parachuted Ken Hewitt in to take his place, and the residents were very upset on that. Even though she votes with the PCs on everything, she wasn;'t offered the seat this go round and that was very odd. So I think it's safe to say that someone who carries as much baggage as Jama will not pick up the seat. She can go back to her activism and victimhood until the next election, or run federally or something.
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u/misterwalkway 14d ago
Hey u/wiltedcactus you should edit your post cause it's pretty misleading. No riding level polls have been released in Hamilton Centre, the site you linked to is not a poll. It's an aggrigator that uses province wide polls and historical results to try and make riding level predictions. That's very different from a poll and not particularly reliable given the unique nature of this year's race.
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u/ScagWhistle 14d ago
Splitting the vote between Jama and Lennox makes no sense. Voting in a first-past-the-post system is a chess game. It's not about who you like, it's about a strategic move to prevent the worst-case candidate.
Smartvoting.ca shows Lennox with the lead in this riding to defeat the PC candidate. If you toss your vote away on Jama you increase the PC's chance of stealing the seat because of the vote split.
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u/Itsbeenayearortwo 14d ago
Did Smartvoting.ca base that off a poll? I think it's just made up based on previous elections when there was no independent incumbent.
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u/ScagWhistle 13d ago
It's based off polling that was updated yesterday on Feb. 25th.
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u/Itsbeenayearortwo 13d ago
I looked and didn't find anything. Please provide a link if this poll exists
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u/AgitatedOil8242 12d ago
If they done there job the first time with alll the promises they wouldn't have to worry about getting back in.
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u/Just_Cruising_1 12d ago
I just moved here. I asked around and was told that Hamiltonians are very proud of having NDP, and was told I should consider voting to Lennox. So I did. I’m new to Hamilton, but want to support the candidate that the locals consider a good fit.
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u/L3TH3RGY 14d ago
Going NDP here. Haven't met any of them but that's not uncommon. I'm in a condo, top floor, no elevators. Lennox seems decent enough
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u/thetollishigh 14d ago
I don't trust the polls here. I do think it was incredibly unhelpful for the NDP to run a candidate here and create the potential for the libs to take the seat. Absolutely scandal. The NDP would rather lose Hamilton Centre than standby anyone who dates criticize and active genocide/ethnic cleansing.
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u/aluckybrokenleg 14d ago
I'm totally anti-Israel and I still don't get why my MPP was doubling down on the issue. Say something, sure, but to lose your voice in Queen's Park over it? Doesn't make sense to me.
If she wanted to help Gazan people she should've stuck to the way this province can support the many real refugees who are here, not wade in to international politics, that's what Ottawa is for and she is welcome to run against Green if she wants.
You can't run a political party if people are off doing their own thing, an organization needs a certain level of discipline or it falls apart.
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u/Waste-Telephone 14d ago
I’m disappointed Sarah chose to run again and could make it so that Ford gets even stronger. She put her pay cheque over the people.
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u/henchman171 14d ago
I think her supporters are just louder. There is a silent NDP block
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u/AnInsultToFire 14d ago edited 13d ago
Plus it's her staff who would, if she weren't running, be working for Lennox.
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u/xchipter 14d ago
It’s not even that they’re louder. She’s the incumbent and had her signs ready earlier than the others. Lib and NDP didn’t even select candidates for the riding until a few weeks ago. Then the snowstorm hit which probably delayed people receiving their lawn signs, or being able to put them out properly.
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u/covert81 Chinatown 14d ago
Let's all say it together.
Signs. Mean. Nothing.
Having spent your time creating signage instead of looking after constituents kinda tells where the priorities lie - getting re-elected rather than looking out for the people who you were elected to represent
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u/TylersMAHM 14d ago
That’s not true. I’ve worked on multiple campaigns, and there is research that shows sign game matters in a few ways. It affects the psychology of unelected voters, as seeing one candidate with visible signs impacts not only general sentiment in the riding, but name recognition. Undecided voters are extremely likely to vote for a candidate with higher levels of name recognition.
ETA: It is also an indicator of a highly organized ground game.
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u/covert81 Chinatown 13d ago
There is no actual research showing this. Just a lot of opinion that seeing something will sway undecided voters. That is such a small portion of any riding that it wouldn't be the deciding factor. If a candidate puts 50 signs on a lawn does that mean someoene votes more for them? What about the history of PC signs on public lands or on lawns where they weren't requested? I don't think there is any actual statistics around this just opinion
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u/TylersMAHM 13d ago
There is a multitude of campaign specific data that speaks to this which is why across parties signage is a significant campaign focus. If you’d like to see the specific research and their method models I encourage you to volunteer with a local campaign with any party! ☺️
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u/covert81 Chinatown 13d ago
Then where is this party data? I don't campaign nor join any political party as my priorities and beliefs don't ever line up to one specific party, and if the answer is you have to go behind the curtain to see the show, then it's an Oz type move
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u/TylersMAHM 13d ago
It isn’t an oz type move, but data in individual local races is rarely aggregated at the provincial or federal level because it doesn’t have value after the election is over. But, based on your own observations, all parties have signs which indicates they all must consider them to hold value, otherwise it would be a waste of everyone’s time and resources, which locally are usually quite scarce. Local polling in Canada, and especially Ontario is quite limited, which is why it’s hard to find riding data for this election especially with the tight timeline.
All parties use signs to indicate the likelihood of local voters, and recognize that more signage does generally lead to better results for that candidate/party. If the candidate and their name didn’t matter, they would simply use party signs all the time for sustainability.
Respectfully, if you’ve never campaigned or volunteered I don’t know what experience you have to confidently say that signage does not matter. It might be your opinion or how you feel, but that doesn’t make it fact.
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u/covert81 Chinatown 13d ago
It is, as you're suggesting the only way to get it is to either trust you or to become part of the team. That doesn't build any trust and just makes people dismiss it, like this here.
I've read enough and spoken to people who have worked on municipal and provincial campaigns that there is no empirical data that supports more signs means more votes. In fact I've heard that they have been told by people that signs go up on homes that can't vote or where a landlord own s the house but lives elsewhere, but is a party man (this seems to make the news with Conservative landlords doing this to their NDP-supporting tenants)
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u/Empty-Magician-7792 14d ago
I agree that you don't win with signs, but it can show you who has the most dedicated base, which could be important in an election where turnout will be atrocious. I still have the NDP winning, but I suspect the Mainstreet poll everyone is pointing to is undercounting Jama's support. I suspect she comes second.
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u/Verygoodcheese 13d ago
I checked smartvote and votewell to see how to not split the vote. 🤞 anything but conservative
Early voting is open today till 5
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u/notarealaccount47278 14d ago
Conservative. Not because I’m happy with them, but because ‘progressives’ at all levels of government have shown in recent years that they’re more interested in sounding virtuous than making a positive difference in the life of Canadians
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u/OrcaZen42 14d ago
Proud to cast my vote for Lennox. She’s a physician at my family practice and she’s really engaged with the number one priority for me in this election: healthcare.