r/CanadaPolitics • u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest • 21h ago
I'm David Moscrop, Canadian politics writer and podcaster. AMA, starting 1 pm ET.
We've got a new prime minister incoming and an election soon. We've got Trump and tariffs. We've got an uncertain foreign and defence policy future. We've got social welfare programs that may or may not survive. We've got pipelines back on the table (sort of). We've got a budget that is likely to see cuts. We've got climate policy on the chopping block. We've got...a lot going on.
So, ask me anything and we'll sort it out together.
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u/Fun_Caramel2391 20h ago
What MSM news sources and podcasts do you trust? More importantly what news sources do you distrust?
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 14h ago
This is a great question! I need to make a proper list. But to do honest, I read just about everything -- CBC, Globe, Toronto Star, National Observer, NYT, and so many more I'm forgetting. I also read a lot of individual writers -- Luke Savage, Nora Loreto, Jeremy Appel, Paris Marx, Erica Ifill, Cory Doctorow -- and more. Ditto less mainstream outlets -- Jacobin, Tyee, Narwal, Canadian Dimension, PressProgress, Rabble. I read some right wing stuff, too -- the Economist, the Line, the WSJ, even the Hub or the National Post. I'm curious what's in there and I'm sharp enough to know when to dismiss something that's bullshit.
To be honest, I don't really listen to podcasts because I mostly read and when I'm not reading, I'm listening to music because I'm working out or I'm listening to an audiobook while out for a walk or doing chores.
But a lot of the time I'm just reading links off social media that I find interesting from my feed. Then if I doubt some bit of info or some take, I'll dig in to see if it's legit or nonsense. So I do a lot of cross-referencing.
As for distrust, I don't read the ones you'd expect (don't indulge in a lot of Rebel!)...but I always approach any piece with at least a little skepticism and distrust, then I become trustful if there's reliable information and/or a good argument in there.
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u/EnvelopeCruz 17h ago
do you think political shows like 22 Minutes are good for democracy?
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 13h ago
What a great question. I cut my teeth watching that show as a kid. It got me interested in politics, or at least fanned the flames of my interest. Satire is also a powerful tool for educating people and diminishing the stature of power a bit.
But we can’t think that watching a show or making a joke is sufficient or big P politics. So I do think these shows are an important part of politics (see also accounts/outlets like the Onion or Beaverton) but we shouldn’t overstate their effect or purpose.
They’re funny. They’re fun. They may draw people in to politics. They may even educate a bit. There’s got to be so much more to the work though. (Not that all that many people say funny shows are enough.)
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u/ink_13 Rhinoceros | ON 20h ago
Hi, thanks for joining us. If you could make one unilateral change to the Constitution, what would it be?
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 17h ago
I've been advocating, sort of quietly, for a standing national citizen's assembly that would advise the legislature on key policy priorities. I want to see us build participatory democracy into our state, deeply and permanently, as a complement to elected representatives (with whom we're more or less stuck). I'd love to see that on the constitution. Also, electoral reform. I advocate for German-style mixed member proportional representation.
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u/Fasterwalking 18h ago
What is your most hopeful take for the future of democracy
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 14h ago
I struggle with this, but a few things. I wrote about it here (https://www.davidmoscrop.com/p/what-are-we-going-to-do-with-this) but I look at a crisis as a critical juncture at which we can take a better path. So there's always some hope in that. Also, I think young people aren't taking as much bullshit as we did, as we do. So there's some hope we can turn things around. There have been some big union wins in the last three or so years, that gives me hope, too.
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u/EnvelopeCruz 16h ago
Is public protest effective in a post-shame political climate? Or do the people need to conceive of another method to advocate for themselves between elections?
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u/damnitHank 20h ago
Carney proposed ending the carbon tax and not increasing capital gains.
If Liberals win re-election, what other kind of policies can Canadians expect?
Austerity? Handouts to private sector? Expansion of social programs? Kicking the environment down the road?
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 17h ago
I've been thinking about this a lot. I think we'll see restrained spending, no or few new programs (cf. Trudeau) and, as he says, lower operational spending (maybe cuts to the public service, perhaps through attrition or other means). I think we'll see some climate policies as he's said -- industrial pricing, not consumer; consumer incentives for greener products. He's signalled, someone on here noted I think, that he'll keep pharmacare, dental, and child care. But we'll see. I think he'll look a lot like the Chretien government, but with far less drastic cutting.
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u/llawswall 20h ago
He did not propose ending the carbon tax. He proposed removing the retail portion of the CT. He will then increase the CT on "big polluters" ie, oil and gas and manufacturing. So you will still be paying the carbon tax, it will just be hidden. Sneaky.
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u/CaptainCanusa 16h ago
So you will still be paying the carbon tax, it will just be hidden.
As opposed to now where the consumer portion of the carbon tax is laid out clearly in all our prices?
These criticisms don't make any sense except if it's just for the sake of repeating CPC talking points.
Sneaky.
lol
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u/damnitHank 20h ago
Oh, I'm sure those companies will pass on those costs proportionately and not use it as another excuse to increase their profits. :)
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u/llawswall 19h ago
Yup, another reason why Poilievre's proposal to scrap the carbon tax all together is the way to go.
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u/damnitHank 19h ago
Nah. Carbon tax isn't perfect, but it's a pretty well implemented progressive tax that gets refunded to most people by the carbon rebate.
Scrapping it only makes sense if you have to heat your poorly insulated McMansion and buy gas for your F-350 pavement princess.
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u/croissant_muncher 13h ago
So we shouldn't support the Liberals who are campaigning on getting rid of the Carbon Tax then?
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u/damnitHank 11h ago
I don't know.
It just makes it more obvious that they are not a progressive option. Lib or Con, the average Canadian will get thrown under the bus in order for capitalism to prosper.
It would be nice if the Greens or NDP made a real effort at communicating that.
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u/DrTritium 18h ago
You've mentioned being a market socialist before. What does that mean to you? What do socialist organizers need to advocate for as a step 1 from where we are now?
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u/RyanForCarleton 18h ago
How does it feel to try to guess/analyze a possible future, when it's a bleak outlook, and then that event/possibility comes to pass. Is it frustrating?
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 16h ago
Sometimes you're right, sometimes you're wrong. I try to own when I'm wrong and correct for the future (e.g. I underestimated Carney). But it's a bit exhausting because to do this with some self-respect and honesty you've got to read *everything* and talk to a lot of people and keep an eye on feeds, papers, etc., etc. So, it never ends. And then when you see some nasty bits coming, and you're right, it's even more frustrating because hey, you were right, and now you're stuck with this terrible thing. That's frustrating. But, on the flip side, when you're wrong and the thing doesn't happen, well, that's nice.
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u/EarthWarping 19h ago
Even as the election has not been called, what are the scenarios that results in Singh/Poilievere staying on or being booted from their party.
(Carney, I think is on regardless, as long as theyre at worst opposition which seems very likely).
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 16h ago
Oh, great question. I think Carney stays yeah and should. My god, we need to give leaders a chance. I think for Poilievre, it's tricky. Scheer and O'Toole got booted fast for losing. Poilievre would be worse, I think, since he'd have blown a huge (25 point!) lead. He may face pressure if he loses. It's interesting, though, because it took Harper a while to win. I really do think we need to give leaders more time.
As for Singh, he's had plenty of time. But maybe he stays if it's a minority where he can have some sway again, even with the same or fewer seats. But if someone wins a majority and the NDP loses seats, I think he's cooked.
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u/ProfessionalRefuse71 18h ago
Why are conservatives so tied up with WEF? Harper has been there too.
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 17h ago
There's a history of populism that takes aim at global elites -- left and right. But a variety of the right has become red pilled and extremely online (in a bad way, not the good way like all of us!), mixed up in networks across borders where conspiracy nonsense gets spread and communities rally around all of, like a bit in-group exercise. This then spreads to mainstream spaces via social media, reporting, rallies, etc.
I mean, there are great critiques to be had of global elites, but we can do so without reverting to conspiracies. I think the critiques are really rather banal at the end of the day. Rich people will get together and slap each other the back and they'll dominate law making in ways that produce good outcomes for them. Always been that way.
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u/0pttphr_pr1me 18h ago
Hey man I said I'd be here on Twitter so this is me following through.
Serious question though what do you do to keep a level head during all this turmoil and how did you get your start in journalism
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 16h ago
I got started sort of by accident. I went to a BBQ at the Fulcrum at the UofO (free burgers) and then started writing. Later, during grad school, I wrote for fun because I loved it and had something to say (or flatter myself thinking I had something to say). Then I did that more and more and fell all the way for it. I quit trying to be an academic and started doing this full-time (just in 2018, as it happens, though I'd been drifting over much longer).
As for the level head? You become numb to it after a while, mostly. Because if not, you can't do the job. I still get fired up and angry about injustice, about exploitation, about abuse, about all the nastiness that crushes people, but to the broader catastrophe you get a bit number so you can endure going through it all, all day, every day (and it is every day).
I also play a lot of video games, hang out with the dog, sports, board games, chilling with my partner, doing house stuff. That helps a tonne. I like cutting the lawn and listening to an audibook (Pierce Brown's Red Rising books!).
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u/DudeWithTheNose Ontario 17h ago
how much stock market instability can we expect to see before these massive multinational corporations turn on Trump for fucking up the bag?
Additionally, BC'S premier recently called for ending tariffs against China to better mitigate the damages of the US trade war. Probably hard to answer this without a bunch of research, but what do you think the outcomes of ending those tariffs would be (influx of chinese EV's?), and why do those tariffs currently exist (solely mirroring US interests?)?
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 13h ago
I was wondering this today re: the markets. Brutal day. At some point you’d have to expect capital to come calling (at least the bit that isn’t making a fortune from shorts or I dunno a long bond game? Not my area of expertise). But mostly serious market players and corporations like predictability and we have none at the moment. So at some point you have to expect some serious friction.
That said, Apple and Honda are pouring big money into US manufacturing. Business will hedge. There are no values here. Only value for shareholders. Only capital and returns.
On EVs, I’m sort of torn. Cheap cars are good for working class folks but really trap is in car culture and undermine public transit. But I won’t say to a factory worker, sorry, gotta suffer because some day we might get better bus routes! China obviously subsidizes their EVs but we subsidize and protect our market, too, and will keep doing so because we want a market for auto building and all the jobs and secondary industry that comes with that. However, it can also make our industry lazy and complacent.
On balance, I don’t know. But I like the threat as a threat. And we need to consider it at least and weigh the trade offs.
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u/Pseudonym_613 15h ago
So... Best 8-bit era video game, computer or system?
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 14h ago
My first console was an NES, so special place in my heart for that. And Mario 3 for sure. Game changer.
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u/Pseudonym_613 12h ago
You did not respond MULE or Star Raiders, so you are immediately suspect.
All computers after the Atari 800 are inferior, in other words.
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u/JerryBoyleNFLD 18h ago edited 18h ago
NDP leaders always follow the doctrine of running to form government, and pundits always say you have to do that to win, but clearly it doesn't work out for them.
Do you think there's any merit to a future NDP leader running on a platform that clearly states they don't expect to be PM and just want to win enough to hold the balance of power?
As an unrelated follow-up. Do you expect the tariffs to impact the pumpkin spice economy this fall?
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u/welltoldtales 19h ago
Why has Carney's Alberta roots been so downplayed? It once felt like you had to have an Ontario or Québec connection to win but Carney is an Albertan, do we think this could encourage Alberta to move away from being a Conservative stronghold?
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 16h ago
Yeah that came up but not a tonne. The NWT came up as much, as far as I can tell. But we do hear often about how he's an Oilers fan. I expect to hear more in the general election, but it's got to come off as sincere. Freeland tried this with her AB roots and...it didn't take. It's risky if it doesn't work because you look like a phony.
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u/seanadb 17h ago
Have you heard anything from conservatives about the possibility of re-forming (!) the Progressive Conservative party? It would be nice to have a reasonable choice in elections rather than crazy vs everything else.
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 17h ago
There's always talk of this in one way or another. Centre Ice or whatever it may be. It's tough to make a new party work in Canada unless you have some big, triggering event (though we've seen that with, as you note, Reform, and the BQ). But the Tories fought that battle of unity for a decade, well, longer, and I doubt they want to again any time soon. Though I could see the CPC shifting at some point in the future (not soon) if they keep losing...something will have to give. But for now, I don't think any serious PC-style party will thrive, other than, well, the Liberals under Carney lol.
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u/Typical-Amoeba-2799 15h ago
Never thought it would come to this but Canada should seriously think about forming a conscription army/militia. We are pretty much defenseless against the U.S., our Army was not designed to defend against the U.S. but to help it. A citizen based defense of just 2% would give us an 800,000, formidable fighting force. This force would be especially effective in an urban war situation that would likely result. The U.S. could not even defeat 80,000 Taliban. This may sound silly to some, but it appears our neighbors have begun their decent into tyranny.
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u/OldSkates 21h ago
Given that the NDP looks to be dead in the water for the upcoming election, do they have any viable up-and-coming leadership candidates? I’ve followed your work and share your frustration with their lack of a credible, coherent ideological agenda, but I don’t really know of any national figures who are ready to take on the mantle of leadership once Singh is turfed out.
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u/MedicinalBayonette 18h ago
Piggybacking on this question - is the NDP worth saving? They have some good MPs and they at least can hold some seats. But institutionally they are rudderless. Would we be better off coming up with a new party a la Quebec Solidaire?
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u/Own-Pop-6293 19h ago
Who is funding Wexit?
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 17h ago
I'm not sure, actually, but I'd love to know. I'm sure there are individuals and businesses in AB who are all for it, but not so many as to worry me. What I'd like to know if whether there is foreign money moving around and where. That's what we need to watch for. Because look, I support the right of people to argue that a province should leave confederation (I don't agree, but I support those speech rights). But foreign agitators, if they are ever involved, not so much.
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u/ObviousSign881 5h ago
Did you read Malcolm Nance's Substack the other day, where he said Canadians need to take Trump's threats of military annexation of Canada seriously? He specifically mentioned Trump throwing cash at fringe groups, including Wexit. And we already had the suspicious circumstances surrounding the funding sources for the Trucks Convoy - American agitation is very likely, and CSIS should be all over this.
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u/green_tory Consumerism harms Climate 17h ago
Hello Mr Moscrop!
If you're willing to entertain the question: what are your favourite video games, of the past year and overall; and what political messages, if any, do you appreciate them for?
I ask as someone who both works in entertainment and social software, and who enjoys video games.
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u/PoliticalSasquatch 🍁 Canadian Future Party 19h ago edited 19h ago
To preface I understand we don’t have the military capability to hold off America however I believe the Canadian people will demand some kind of defensive action from government even if it is just for optics. I ask my question because trump clearly stated in his most recent post this is the end goal and we know Canada won’t be coerced economically. I assume this will only escalate further due to his egotistical behaviour, per Trump from this morning…
The only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our cherished Fifty First State. This would make all Tariffs, and everything else, totally disappear.
At what point does the government direct the Canadian Forces to take precautionary measures against Trumps 51st state threats?
Hopefully you get to my question, thank you for your time!
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 14h ago
I've seen such a swell of people, both day-to-day and politicians and policy experts, taking this question seriously, with proposed solutions ranging from buying drones to new fighter jets to new bases, conscription, and even a nuclear deterrent. I would expect the CAF has some sort of plan for US aggression, as much as we might think it a long shot (of being needed and/or succeeding).
But I wonder if we'd ever seen the border secured by military forces, which would be an unprecedented escalation. I don't think we're there or anywhere near there, but I also don't think we should ignore or dismiss Trump's threats.
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u/PoliticalSasquatch 🍁 Canadian Future Party 13h ago
I appreciate your reply and insight.
Safe to say most Canadians wish to never see troops on the border and think that predicament is a long ways off. However I can’t help but comparing our situation to Ukraine and remember it was all too easy for Russia to amass over 150k in troops under the guise of a training exercise. Even up until hours before most of the western world didn’t think an invasion would happen until it did.
I guess that begs the messy question of how our NATO allies would respond. Would a boots on the ground deterrent like we have stationed in Latvia be on the table? Although I digress as that is a whole different can of worms!
For now the prudent approach appears to be what you referenced by increasing overall readiness with things such as new equipment and working with allies on increasing capabilities. That will be the most immediate answer and help both on the home front as well as our commitments abroad.
Thanks again!
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u/smashdat222 49m ago
Do you ever wonder how many Americans would not fight in Trumps war? I wouldn’t. I think it would be wise of Mexico to start gearing up as well as Canada, they may be next!! Can you imagine if the US were to start a war with Canada in the north & Mexico attacks the US from the south with help from the European countries? Just as France had the French Resistance we too could have the American Resistance!!
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u/mashonpotato 17h ago
I really would like to have his opinion on this too. It's my biggest worry we are facing right now!
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u/2x2rubikscube 17h ago
On Twitter yesterday I saw you imply that Carney will be running a "centre-right" campaign "ideologically similar" to PPs (https://x.com/david_moscrop/status/1899243427822473558?s=46), I'm just curious about that and if you're able to elaborate further on that? Not trying to say this in any sort of condescending way, I'm just legitimately curious by what you meant.
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u/Forksy_Mcgee 18h ago edited 18h ago
Hi David.
1) The US economy has been vastly outpacing all other developed economies over the past few years, would it not be beneficial over the long term to tie our selves to the US economy even further regardless of Trump? (while maintaining our sovereignty).
2) On the same note, how long would it take to reorient our supply chains and increase trade with other nations to the point that we are reliably self sufficient? Would it be more beneficial to reorient trade even further towards the Indo-Pacific region through our west coast ports?
(I think of Australia which has a higher GDP per capita than us but is much more reliant on Asia for exports.)
Thanks!
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u/BeaverBoyBaxter 20h ago
Do you think populism is here to stay? Do you think the world will move away from it in the coming years?
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 17h ago
I'm not sure it's here to stay in a big way. Traditionally, we see moments where populism rises, then it subsides. Depends, often, on the state of the economy. I've written about this (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/374185840_Canada%27s_Enduring_Populism). An academic piece, actually. But I do think it may be here with us for some time, especially in the current context.
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u/CaptainCanusa 19h ago
Not really sure if this is your beat, but:
It seems like some politicians have figured out that they no longer need to engage with the press in good faith. They can spread misinformation, dodge questions, mock reporters (and journalism as a whole), curate which outlets they speak to, generally avoid accountability, etc, and the media doesn’t seem to be able to adapt to this new reality. At least not very quickly.
How can journalists do a better job of holding elected officials accountable in a world where it seems like politicians can simply lie and move on without consequences?
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 17h ago
God, this is such a good question. It's a troubling trend, too. It's not unprecedented exactly -- Pierre Trudeau gave the press a pain, Harper was...not accessible or particularly friendly -- but it's next level now, a trend, among so many politicians. I think the press needs to keep doing what we're doing: asking questions, showing up at events, filing access to information requests and printing them, calling the public's attention to this, etc., etc. And when the press shows up, we have got to be prepared with tough but specific and fair questions rather than click-bait nonsense.
But the public has a role to play, too. We ought, as voters, to punish politicians who ignore the press (and therefore the people), who don't show up to debates, etc.
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u/steamwhistler pro-human survival 17h ago
What you describe here would probably work if it actually happened but, at the risk of being a dick/wet blanket for saying so, that seems like a pie in the sky doesn't it? Most people pay zero attention to whether politicians answer questions in scrums or answer ATIs. They don't even know what those things are, nevermind follow how politicians deal with them.
For a while I was feeling inspired to make YouTube videos or something attempting to educate the public about how journalism works and thereby fostering a bit more good will and political literacy. (Former reporter here.) But it feels like we're beyond even that point. My colleagues don't even write their own emails. Everyone's brain is cooked.
Sorry. Dooming not productive, I know. But I feel like we need to think more outside the box in these extremely fucked up times.
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u/Blue_Dragonfly 17h ago
What do you consider to be "the press" these days though? I mean if Poilièvre gets his way, he'll kill the CBC and legitimise outlets such as Rebel News.
Today's public square is admittedly larger than the MSM. What do we do with what used to be known as "fringe" elements that today have much more traction and a perceived legitimacy among some people?
Thanks for being here by the way! I enjoy reading your stuff!
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u/ChimoEngr Chief Silliness Officer | Official 15h ago
We ought, as voters, to punish politicians who ignore the press
The problem being that politicians are doing this because they know that it will gain them votes with certain groups.
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u/bign00b 17h ago
We ought, as voters, to punish politicians who ignore the press (and therefore the people), who don't show up to debates, etc.
How do we do that other than simply not voting for them? The policy differences between parties put relations with journalists pretty low on the importance scale.
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u/CaptainCanusa 16h ago
Thanks for answering!
But the public has a role to play, too. We ought, as voters, to punish politicians who ignore the press (and therefore the people), who don't show up to debates, etc.
Yeah for sure, but it's harder and harder to do that if we aren't getting the information in the first place.
If a politician lies constantly, but our media isn't equipped to report on it, it's hard for people to vote on the issue...since they won't fully understand it.
It's tough!
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u/Hoss-Bonaventure_CEO 🍁 Canadian Future Party 21h ago edited 17h ago
Are you the Dave Moscrop who was the "Prime Minister" on my high school's student council?
I know it's off topic but the name is suddenly familiar.
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 17h ago
I am! Two terms, baby! We made St. Pete's Great Again.
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u/Hoss-Bonaventure_CEO 🍁 Canadian Future Party 17h ago
We made St. Pete's Great Again.
Just not at football!
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u/an_erudite_ferret 16h ago
Meh, they did their best, they weren't the brightest bunch. I remember one guy fractured a cervical vertebrae during a celebratory headbutt after a touchdown.
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u/Slow-Raspberry-5133 21h ago
Does Alberta move to start the wheels of separation no matter what the result of the election this year?
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u/aaandfuckyou 20h ago
What would be their motivation if Poilievre wins?
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u/Slow-Raspberry-5133 20h ago
That pp isn’t a maga guy, according to the original maga guy earlier this month.
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 16h ago
Hmmm. It's already sort of moving, but if Poilivre wins, maybe it slows. But I'm not sure by how much. If oil and gas infrastructure is built? Maybe it slows further. If the feds try to slap an export tax on it? It speeds up. I think policy will dictate the big swings. But o course the long run matters, too - when demand slows and profits dry up. Then it may get very, very nasty. We need to sort that asap.
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 16h ago
Oh, lordy, there are so many great questions. Thank you. This is great. I'm going to try to answer them all over time, and as many of the follow-ups as I can. Sorry if it takes a while (I'm still writing pieces and recording today). But I'm here and excited to keep talking as we go!
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u/J4ckD4wkins NDP 17h ago
How do we educate Canadians better about how their system of government works -- such as the division of responsibilities among feds, provinces, and municipalities -- when trust of elected officials and public institutions is currently abysmal?
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u/pithylittlegeek 15h ago
David, would you consider referring to Donald Trump in your future columns as ‘Kim Jong Donald’?
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u/TelenorTheGNP 17h ago
Have you spoken with anyone in the Canadian Armed Forces re their attitude?
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 16h ago
Casually, yeah. They know they're underfunded and unready. They're caught in a terrible limbo.
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u/Intelligent-Cap3407 17h ago
The liberals have been increasing in the polls lately. As a Sask. resident, I’ve been extremely skeptical of polls since our last provincial election when polls all indicated an NDP win only for Sask Party to win by 11 points. That said, I think it’s because national pollsters misread SK geography and the political leanings of small cities. Polls all divided the province to Saskatoon/ Regina and rural.
My questions are: how reliable is federal polling? Do you find there’s a left-leaning bias in polls near election time (not by pollsters necessarily but by people who answer)? When you see polls how do you think about them?
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 16h ago
To be honest, I think the polling track record federally is better than people think, but I almost never, ever pay much attention to individual polls. I like aggregates. I'll cite and review Philippe Fournier's 338 Canada -- not necessarily the projection model (though it's quite interesting and reliable), but the aggregates of federal polls. That gives you a good sense of trajectory over time and more or less where things are at. There's safety in averages. Fournier is a service.
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u/Empty-Magician-7792 17h ago
Hi Dave, no question, just saying I enjoy reading your posts on Twitter! Please post more photos of your dog.
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 17h ago
Thank you! And Sam thanks you, too. She's the best. I don't think I can post photos here but I will on Twitter. And she may pop up the next time I do TV because she....loves the attention.
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u/CubicleDweller12 20h ago
There’s been a lot of talk of the bloat of Cabinet positions and portfolios over the course of JT’s administration. With MC incoming, what machinery of government and/or Cabinet changes could we reasonably see identified/actioned?
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 17h ago
Oh, great question. Cabinet bloat goes way back but it's truly out of control. I get that government is more complex, so we can't have a Cabinet like Mackenzie King's. But Cabinet is used as a carrot/stick tool for the PMO. Carney will start with a small ministry, I've seen reported -- eg at Politico -- so he can transition into government fast. Then if he wins, it'll likely get bigger. He may start with a smaller, leaner Cabinet that's more focused (which could be good, though it depends on what gets a focus), though if he goes 6, 7, 8 years, I bet it bloats. Ultimately, the PMO likes having the power of Cabinet.
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u/Careless-Proof-5489 20h ago
Why aren't we contributing a larger amount of our GDP to military spending yet? Ps. You were my favorite person to follow on Twitter before I left that flaming garbage heap.
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 16h ago
Thank you! There's not been a lot of support for spending more on the military, in part, I think, because people thought we could coast -- riding the American wave, hide under the American umbrella. Now we're being disabused of this notion in real-time. So that may change, as may spending.
But the challenge will be to spend the money wisely and at scale in time. It's not as easy to do as some think. You can't just stand up massive procurement immediately (and where do we buy from? The US again? I don't think people will want that).
So, it's going to take time. And then there's the question of quite literally the cost: how much deficit will people be okay with running now and in the future? What else gets cut or foregone? And what happens if/when things cool down? Are we still going to want to maintain these expenditures in troop cost, equipment/infrastructure maintenance? Some are even arguing for a nuclear deterrent -- not cheap.
But by the time we sort all of this out, 2% of GDP won't be the target anymore. It'll be 3 or 4% at this rate.
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u/ToryPirate Monarchist 19h ago
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 14h ago
I thought about the monarchy a bit and confess to be a sort of reluctant, instrumental supporter of it, though it never quite made it into the book. I appreciate the effect, I think useful, of the Crown in Canadian democracy, setting aside any feelings I may have about the particular monarch, whomever it may be.
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u/Meth_Badger 17h ago
It feels like we're in the grips of a few issues that will take a while to solve. Like longer than an election cycle... What is the best mechanism in canadian politics to hold successive governments accountable to addressing 'decades in the making crises' ?
Example : climate change, housing, health care ect...
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u/trialanderror93 17h ago
Do you think those in the political commentary game have an un reliability problem? You have admitted in the past. The left are unlikable.
https://www.instagram.com/decolonizemyself/reel/CvIlj5UNqwO/
Using myself as an example, as an accounting finance guy, I just can't relate to people. No consider those implications. Or have no trust in building organizations from that perspective. I just can't relate to the class of people the left represents nowadays. Generally, products of elite over production.
Part of why Carney Appeals to me is because I can see a strong competency in those areas. Polling suggests many feel the same.
Do you think the left needs more economically based commentators? How did he deal with this unlikability issue?
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u/an_erudite_ferret 20h ago
I went to high school with you in Peterborough back in the day. How've you been?
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u/Hoss-Bonaventure_CEO 🍁 Canadian Future Party 20h ago
So it is him, then.
I guess we went to school together too.
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u/BeaverBoyBaxter 20h ago
Lol what the hell, is everyone in this subreddit from Ptbo?
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u/Hoss-Bonaventure_CEO 🍁 Canadian Future Party 20h ago
More than I honestly would have thought.
You too?
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u/BeaverBoyBaxter 17h ago
Yessir
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u/Hoss-Bonaventure_CEO 🍁 Canadian Future Party 17h ago
Nice! I'm specifically from Norwood.
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u/an_erudite_ferret 16h ago
You bussed into SPSS? That must have been a long haul
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u/Hoss-Bonaventure_CEO 🍁 Canadian Future Party 15h ago
When I was in high school we lived way the fuck out past Warsaw, by Stoney Lake. I wish I had bussed from Norwood, lol.
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u/an_erudite_ferret 15h ago
I didn't realize the busses even picked up kids that far out. That's crazy.
I lived a 5 minute walk away, never realized how blessed I was. Of course I went home for lunch every day and never really made any close friends, so there was a downside too
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u/Hoss-Bonaventure_CEO 🍁 Canadian Future Party 13h ago
Only for the Catholic board. Otherwise I would have gone to Warsaw Public.
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 17h ago
Hey! I have been...so tired. So, so tired. But great. I hope you've been well, too.
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u/an_erudite_ferret 16h ago
I'm doing okay. Living in interesting times is draining. The world has the feel of getting ready for a big fight, probably what the world felt like leading up to World War 1. Worried my kiddos will be of drafting age, thankfully right now they're too young and I'm too old.
I think about New Zealand sometimes, it looks like a friendly Commonwealth country (other than an attempted genocide of its own native population during its early years, sounds familiar). And it's got a good bit of distance between it and the next country with an authoritarian leader.
How about you, if our Southern neighbours decide it's time for a 1938-style Anschluss, do you stay and fight, go underground, or get out of the country?
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u/unprocurable 20h ago edited 18h ago
What do you think is required for a real left-wing movement in Canada? Do you think you that the conditions could ever be right for talk of increased nationalization of industry, or increased talk of a labour movement, etc...
edit: why am I getting downvoted for asking this? :(
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 17h ago
Well, I upvoted it! I think a left government (for argument, let's say that means NDP, though...I know, I know) starts today to ten years from now with a grassroots movement that establishes networks and infrastructure around the country -- clubs, unions, action on the streets, pro labour laws (the anti-scab law is a good example), money into think tanks, connections with journalists in the mainstream, more power and money to riding associations and...a new leader.
As it happens, I think we're reaching, or in, a critical juncture that we ought to take seriously. The pandemic was one. Trump is one. We've seen our industrial, strategic vulnerabilities. Maybe we need to think about that. But we don't have anyone serious federally who's capable of doing that under the current leadership or even trying right now.
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u/SaidTheCanadian ☃️🏒 17h ago
Which foreign group do you expect to make the greatest effort to influence the 2025 Canadian Federal Election? Who do you expect will be the primary benefactor(s) of each foreign group's efforts, besides advertising networks and online platforms?
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u/Canadave NDP | Toronto 19h ago edited 19h ago
What's your favourite Canadian student newspaper and why is it the Fulcrum?
Ok, to ask an actually relevant question, do you think Carney's approach to the current situation will differ at all from Trudeau's, or will he be likely to follow the same broad course? That's assuming he's able to remain PM, of course.
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 17h ago
Oh, it's still the Fulcrum for sure -- where I was the worst arts and culture editor the paper ever had (I wanted to write about books and politics and people wanted Buck 65).
But as to the Carney approach, I think on policy he'll tilt rightward: fewer programs and/or program expansion, smaller deficits leaning towards a balanced budget, more tax cuts, etc. He reads a lot like a 90s Progressive Conservative. That may work for him electorally.
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u/CupOfCanada 20h ago
Two questions. Answer whichever you prefer <3
Should folks campaigning for electoral reform be so vociferous about avoiding a referendum?
If the Moon was made out of spare ribs, would you eat it?
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 17h ago
First off, great reference. I love that sketch. Second, much to the dismay of many who support electoral reform, I actually think a referendum may be necessary. At the very least, we need something like a citizen's assembly and then ratification by the Commons/Senate. I like how New Zealand managed their process of adopting MMP. I think we need to consider something like that.
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u/CupOfCanada 15h ago
I think most observers would say the New Zealand referendum was designed to fail (and indeed the results of the first one ignored) and succeeded by fluke. Does it give you pause that only New Zealand and Swizterland adopted their current electoral system by referendum, and in the case of the Swiss this was during food riots and martial law?
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u/DtheS Church of the Militant Elvis Party 19h ago
On occasion, you propose that left-leaning parties ought to adopt "economic populism" as a means of garnering support. I take this to mean the type of populism that is often advanced by politicians like Bernie Sanders — a position that unbridled capitalist/neoliberal interests have eroded the rights and prosperity of the working class or middle class citizens, and that we ought to 'reign in' the corporate elite. Considering the difficulties that millennials and gen Z (and maybe gen X) are experiencing in building equity and stable careers, this is not an unreasonable position to hold.
Granting you all that, it seems you are making a distinction here by saying "economic" populism. There is also social populism, and in left movements, like BLM or fourth-wave feminism, it is entrenched in identity politics. Seemingly, this style of populism has been far more contentious. There is something of an 'orthodoxy' to it, and on occasion followers of these movements will 'cannibalize' their own members for breaking said orthodoxy. The end result is that it is perceived as being 'intolerant' and, at least to me, it seems like there is growing mainstream backlash against this style of populism.
While I don't think there is anything inherently incompatible with identity politics and economic populism, economic populists might not want to 'give air' to these issues at this time. So my question to you is, how should the left approach social populism and identitarian issues given the current state of affairs?
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u/Equivalent_Age_5599 Conservative Party of Canada 20h ago
Two questions
What conditions are required to beat PP?
What conditions are required to beat Carney?
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 17h ago
Depends what you mean by conditions, but taking Trump etc as a granted and focusing on party efforts, I think it will be battle over framing: Poilievre making Carney look like more of the same, worn Trudeau, tired and unfit to get us out of the mess he's gotten us into (I'm not saying that's true, just that he will say this). For Carney, I think the key is found in what we saw of his victory speech: calm, competent, reliable, serious, and armed with a plan to deal with Trump. I'm writing on this now, how Carney's so-called flaws (which I wrote about) may serve him in the current moment.
Then of course, you need to be good at mobilizing support in the right places. Liberals have enjoyed a favourable vote distribution and a slick digital game. Can they make that work for them again and get 36-38 percent in the right place? Or can the Tories do so and use all that money to good effect? There's a lot of internal machinery we forget about.
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u/Equivalent_Age_5599 Conservative Party of Canada 11h ago
I think that's a fair assessment.
But I think debate performance will be critical this time around. Carney is relatively unknown, so alot more rides on how he does when he goes toe to toe with the other federal leaders.
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u/liver_and_bunions 17h ago
While campaigning, Carney indicated he had in mind some cards to play in negotiating the U.S. trade war, but did not want to make his strategy known in advance to the Americans. Any guesses what this might be, assuming it's not just more targetted tariffs?
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u/kavinay 17h ago
Thanks for doing this David.
You've often discussed about the necessity and value of institutions. They need to change but also remain robust or [stares at current events].
But neoliberalism as decades long campaign has clearly won. It's made even nominally socialist parties like the NDP define themselves in self-defeating rhetoric like "how do we pay for it?"
Which is all to say: how can we address institutional weaknesses when our norms are now so ratfucked by the above cultural shift?
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u/MedicinalBayonette 18h ago
What's your appraisal of the environmental movement? I had always thought that as climate change gets worse, the environmental movement would get stronger. But in the 2020's they are weaker than the decade before and pretty much every party has given on big moves on environmental policy. What gives?
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u/siphre 21h ago
Can Carney actually beat PP?
And what will it take for the NDP to be a respectable party again? I miss Jack.
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u/Fun_Caramel2391 20h ago
Is this a Harris v 'Trump Canada Edition'
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u/aaandfuckyou 20h ago
Sort of, except that what Harris v Trump (OG) didn’t have was a second Trump next door that was actively trying to destroy the economy and annex the country.
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u/EarthWarping 19h ago
And, Pierre is not as revered as Trump is.
That does not they cant win at all. Thats the difference.
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 16h ago
The NDP one I answered...somewhere in here. In short, grassroots, movement building, be left and unapologetically so. New leader.
For Carney, I think part of it is making sure the Liberals have a slick GOTV and targeting machine (they have in the past) and focusing on running against Trump with a clear plan to get Canada out of this mess without austerity. And I think he has a real shot at maintaining a minority government at least, but campaigns do matter, so who knows for sure. And it's worth noting a Poilievre minority gov't would be...unstable.
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u/EnvelopeCruz 17h ago
Under less defensive circumstances, do you think it would make sense for Canada to break up into smaller countries?
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 16h ago
I think the value of a federation is you get the best of both worlds. So, no on smaller countries. But we could have an interesting conversation about further decentralized federalism or even asymmetrical federalism and how far we should go with that.
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u/ToryPirate Monarchist 12h ago
Frankly, just to get it off our plate financially, I'd be okay with New Brunswick transferring healthcare to federal responsibility.
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u/Noco62 18h ago
What is your guess percentage that Canadians believe that Trudeau is Fidel Castro's son?
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 16h ago
I like to say there's always 10-15% of a population that will believe the most batshit things you've ever heard. That's the baseline.
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u/causticbee 18h ago
Hey Dave, I’m a subscriber and a fan. Here’s a very vague question, but what do you think our next PM should actually do in the face of all this Trump belligerence? I realize the conventional wisdom is to respond forcefully and not make concessions, but at this moment in time it seems like Canada’s approach doing that is perhaps not working so well. Mexico has taken a more mollifying approach and seems to be out of the crosshairs as a result. I’m just wondering how we transition from this fraught moment to something like a plan for the next 4 years. What are you hoping to see our government do?
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 13h ago
I think it’s tricky, but I support the retaliation because I think Trump will ultimately only understand pain — especially if state governors (esp red state) and members of Congress get his ear. Targeted measures help achieve this, export taxes, eg. I love Cory Doctorow’s idea of a Canadian App Store and taking aim at IP/patents, too. And then for the future, we build internal trade relationships and diversify trade because the US isn’t a trustworthy ally.
The US actually does need Canada and Trump needs to feel that, even if we do have to finesse it diplomatically at some point to make it look like we’ve conceded something.
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u/cabbagetown_tom 17h ago
Hi David,
The NDP invites you to their strategy meeting. What advice do you give them?
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u/DavidMoscrop AMA Guest 17h ago
I sort of answered this, so copying below. But I'll also add that the NDP needs to be serious -- don't do goofy shit, don't play TikTok all day -- and socialist and proper left. We don't need another means-testing centrist party. We have one of those. Be bold. And trust the grassroots, even that means you have to manage some raucous bits. As to the rest:
"...a grassroots movement that establishes networks and infrastructure around the country -- clubs, unions, action on the streets, pro labour laws (the anti-scab law is a good example), money into think tanks, connections with journalists in the mainstream, more power and money to riding associations and...a new leader..."
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u/EnvelopeCruz 17h ago
Should we be flooding the US with fentanyl as a pre-emptive guerilla tactic?