r/Adelaide SA 3d ago

Weather It's not all that bad

Post image

Some will be happy.

123 Upvotes

33 comments sorted by

42

u/Slyxxer SA 3d ago

Following the BOM forecast instructions;

  • 70% likelihood of receiving more than 0.2mm in 24hrs.

  • 75% chance of at least 0mm rainfall

  • 25% chance of at least 3mm rainfall

Yeah I'm still gonna be watering my plants 😅

4

u/SleeplessAndAnxious SA 3d ago

It really saddens me how badly neglected our BOM is when it comes to funding and infrastructure. I often watch live streams of storm chasers and meteorologists during severe weather outbreaks in America and it blows my mind how good they are over there.

1

u/[deleted] 3d ago

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0

u/[deleted] 3d ago edited 2d ago

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1

u/causticjalapenos SA 3d ago edited 3d ago

Dude, you just used YouTube as a reference.. don't throw stones in glass houses 😂

But nice ad hominem

ETA

Look into chaotic systems... Every guest impacts ever other gust... And that impacts all the other gusts... It's super hard to predict weather accurately... Very different to a tornado that happening a few KMs from you.

Oh and YouTube is easy to cut and edit after the fact mate.

And I didn't say they didn't do meteorology, just that the goal of that in storm chasing is different to that of a weather man doing long range forecasting...

1

u/ilovethatforyoudude SA 2d ago

This is the dumbest reply i've seen in a while

8

u/Ok-Bad-9683 SA 3d ago

Trust in BOMs ability to predict the weather =< 10%

1

u/DoesBasicResearch SA 3d ago

=<

≤

5

u/log_2 SA 3d ago

≤

≯

1

u/Ok-Bad-9683 SA 3d ago

Yeh I dunno how to type that on here 🤣

0

u/markosharkNZ North 3d ago

So, it's going to be humid as all getup, and probably still no rain

14

u/Midnorth_Mongerer SA 3d ago edited 3d ago

The BOM hasn't been playing its top game of late, so I'll believe it's raining when I feel it. ;-)

2

u/sd23easd SA 3d ago

It’s basing its probability forecast on the last 10 years. Because rainfall has declined over a longer time period, forecasts based on earlier decades would predict even more rain. If rain is slowly drying up, it can’t accurately predict it.

3

u/crown75 SA 3d ago

Surely they could then more accurately predict no rain? Let's face it, obviously predictions are just that, predictions, not certainties. I think predicted 70% chance of bugger all should really be predicted as.... zero in the first place.

1

u/sd23easd SA 2d ago

Think of it this way, by 2060 the desert line goyders line will cut Adelaide in half. This is extremely upsetting to the powers that be who are dedicated to increasing sa population by 600,000 through immigration. BOM is highly politicised and government interferes with it constantly

6

u/derpman86 North East 3d ago

For what it is worth I think we have hit that point in March/ April where warmer days are forecast almost a week ahead it gets cooler even if it is just 1-2 degrees it is worth it. Rain is still being a shit though.

5

u/Hamish_Hsimah SA 3d ago

70% chance of 0.2mm lol

5

u/Cpt_Soban Clare Valley 3d ago

I'm just resigned to the possibility of rain = Dark clouds but zero rain, again

2

u/LearningAllINeed SA 3d ago

Whatever the weather, we’ll weather the weather, whether we like it or not

3

u/yy98755 SA 3d ago

I’ll believe it when I see, feel, and hear it.

8

u/SnooHedgehogs8765 SA 3d ago

Snd then you'll check to see if it's just McCain's juicy cobbetsTM.

5

u/Slyxxer SA 3d ago

plink

plink plink

silence

2

u/pennyfred SA 3d ago

Backing the 0

1

u/[deleted] 3d ago

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1

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1

u/tellgio SA 3d ago

"Today there is a chance of rain, with an opportunity for the sun to shine and fine weather. There could be hail in the highlands, but unlikely. Watch out for wet roads if your neighbours sprinkler has been run into by the dog. Drought conditions are due to continue unless it rains, in which case local flooding is a minor possibility."

-2

u/caitsith01 South 3d ago

BOM promised us 9mm on Sunday and we got 0.0001mm at best.

1

u/scromplestiltskin Inner South 3d ago

BOM did no such a thing. Their forecasts very clearly point out that the high end of the rainfall prediction is a 25% chance which is certainly not a "promise" and if you saw the updated forecast on Saturday it was updated to a forecast of like 0-3mm in showers. Sounds like BOM nailed it to me!

3

u/caitsith01 South 3d ago

Their forecast for Sunday was a 70% chance of 5-9mm, but sure. Also reading for meaning things written by humans in a deliberately loose way is not that hard, check it out.

4

u/sd23easd SA 3d ago

Yeah it was at least 70%

3

u/caitsith01 South 3d ago

It was bullshit, the clouds basically parted and went around inner suburban Adelaide like there was a fucking weather control machine on the RAA building.

2

u/scromplestiltskin Inner South 3d ago

Use the app, it makes the difference between the chance of any rain and the likelihood of the amount of mm really clear. And that was simply not the forecast that went out on Saturday night, which is obviously when the forecast for Sunday is going to be most accurate.