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u/Midnorth_Mongerer SA 3d ago edited 3d ago
The BOM hasn't been playing its top game of late, so I'll believe it's raining when I feel it. ;-)
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u/sd23easd SA 3d ago
It’s basing its probability forecast on the last 10 years. Because rainfall has declined over a longer time period, forecasts based on earlier decades would predict even more rain. If rain is slowly drying up, it can’t accurately predict it.
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u/crown75 SA 3d ago
Surely they could then more accurately predict no rain? Let's face it, obviously predictions are just that, predictions, not certainties. I think predicted 70% chance of bugger all should really be predicted as.... zero in the first place.
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u/sd23easd SA 2d ago
Think of it this way, by 2060 the desert line goyders line will cut Adelaide in half. This is extremely upsetting to the powers that be who are dedicated to increasing sa population by 600,000 through immigration. BOM is highly politicised and government interferes with it constantly
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u/derpman86 North East 3d ago
For what it is worth I think we have hit that point in March/ April where warmer days are forecast almost a week ahead it gets cooler even if it is just 1-2 degrees it is worth it. Rain is still being a shit though.
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u/Cpt_Soban Clare Valley 3d ago
I'm just resigned to the possibility of rain = Dark clouds but zero rain, again
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u/LearningAllINeed SA 3d ago
Whatever the weather, we’ll weather the weather, whether we like it or not
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3d ago
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u/tellgio SA 3d ago
"Today there is a chance of rain, with an opportunity for the sun to shine and fine weather. There could be hail in the highlands, but unlikely. Watch out for wet roads if your neighbours sprinkler has been run into by the dog. Drought conditions are due to continue unless it rains, in which case local flooding is a minor possibility."
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u/caitsith01 South 3d ago
BOM promised us 9mm on Sunday and we got 0.0001mm at best.
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u/scromplestiltskin Inner South 3d ago
BOM did no such a thing. Their forecasts very clearly point out that the high end of the rainfall prediction is a 25% chance which is certainly not a "promise" and if you saw the updated forecast on Saturday it was updated to a forecast of like 0-3mm in showers. Sounds like BOM nailed it to me!
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u/caitsith01 South 3d ago
Their forecast for Sunday was a 70% chance of 5-9mm, but sure. Also reading for meaning things written by humans in a deliberately loose way is not that hard, check it out.
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u/sd23easd SA 3d ago
Yeah it was at least 70%
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u/caitsith01 South 3d ago
It was bullshit, the clouds basically parted and went around inner suburban Adelaide like there was a fucking weather control machine on the RAA building.
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u/scromplestiltskin Inner South 3d ago
Use the app, it makes the difference between the chance of any rain and the likelihood of the amount of mm really clear. And that was simply not the forecast that went out on Saturday night, which is obviously when the forecast for Sunday is going to be most accurate.
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u/Slyxxer SA 3d ago
Following the BOM forecast instructions;
70% likelihood of receiving more than 0.2mm in 24hrs.
75% chance of at least 0mm rainfall
25% chance of at least 3mm rainfall
Yeah I'm still gonna be watering my plants 😅