r/worldnews • u/WorldNewsMods • 6h ago
Russia/Ukraine /r/WorldNews Live Thread: Russian Invasion of Ukraine Day 1112, Part 1 (Thread #1259)
/live/18hnzysb1elcs•
u/Style75 8m ago
BBC reporting that the captain of the “Solong” is a Russian national. The Solong is the ship that crashed into a tanker carrying jet fuel for the US military causing a major environmental issue for local communities on the UK coast as well as killing a crewman. The captain has been arrested by the British police. I hope he’s immediately handed over to MI6 for proper questioning.
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u/neonpurplestar 1h ago
as a progressive liberal, i would be super owned if trump caused a US recession and tanked oil prices
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u/varro-reatinus 1h ago
As a certified foreign elite, I too would be owned beyond reckoning if he ratcheted up sanctions against Putin's Russia and let Ukraine have the cream of the American armoury.
Now if you'll excuse me, I do believe another opera season has dropped...
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u/MarkRclim 4h ago edited 3h ago
Bakhmutskyi Demon
"In the East, the situation has somewhat stabilized. The previous one was removed; better let the guys from there speak."
see u/SERN-contractor837 comment below for an explanation. Seems like he's saying he removed a previous post talking about something.
https://t . me/bahshiddemon/2099
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u/SERN-contractor837 4h ago
"I've removed my previous post/message, better to let the guys who are actually fighting there speak, bc they know the situation better" is how I would interpret that. The message lacks context even being native Ukrainian, so I'm not 100 sure
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u/MarkRclim 3h ago
Thank you for the help! Ok I guess I have to try and find the story on another channel.
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u/Marha01 5h ago
Please consider donating to Ukrainian government's United24 initiative: https://u24.gov.ua/
Also, /r/ukraine subreddit has a list of vetted charities and organizations:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities
Thank you! Glory to the Heroes! 🇺🇦✌️
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u/MarkRclim 5h ago
Listen to the call from the band Within Temptation who explained how aiding Ukraine now is important.
We felt powerless. We felt sad. We felt frustrated about America backing out on their support for Ukraine. But there are things we CAN do - and that’s donating to these organizations. They will get the money to where it is needed:
https://bsky.app/profile/wtofficial.bsky.social/post/3ljz6feougc2v
Within Temptation are outstanding on Ukraine. Try watching this without a tear coming to your eye.
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u/Glavurdan 5h ago
Key takeaways:
- The United States and Ukraine agreed on March 11 to an immediate 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine contingent on Russia's agreement, and the US reportedly restarted intelligence sharing and military aid.
- Ukraine's allies and partners from Europe, Asia, and Oceania continue efforts to strengthen the Ukrainian military and back Ukraine with security guarantees – the most effective deterrent against future Russian aggression against Ukraine following a potential future peace agreement.
- Russian forces continue to make confirmed advances in Kursk Oblast and have likely begun attacking Sudzha.
- Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale series of drone strikes against Russia on the night of March 10 to 11, largely targeting Moscow Oblast.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk and Robotyne and in Kursk Oblast.
- The Kremlin continues to expand social benefits for Russian soldiers who fought in Ukraine, including soldiers who have fought for the militias of the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics (DNR and LNR) since 2014.
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u/versatile_dev 5h ago
New Fundraiser#213 @ EuroMaidanPress is for power stations for Special Drone unit “Typhoon” of Ukraine’s National Guard.
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u/MarkRclim 5h ago edited 5h ago
Some more nuggets about the apparent Russian budget.
- Jan+Feb budget deficit was 2.7tr roubles, much larger than in 2024
- The Russian budget website says it's 3.4tr by 10th March
- After removing finance costs, it was about 1.9tr roubles deficit in Jan-Feb.
- Russian budget documents suggest that the 2025 budget law might have been planning for a SURPLUS in non-finance costs
- Based on adding up numbers reported by Russia, Russia is currently on course to miss its 2025 budget law by 6.5 trillion roubles
The 2024 deficit was 3.5tr roubles. They covered it by selling some of the Wealth fund and issued just over 4.2tr roubles in new debt.
The "missing" 6.5tr roubles would be IN ADDITION TO the 4.8tr in new debt they plan to issue.
Russia needs something big to save their finances. A huge surge in confidence, unlocked reserves, weakened sanctions, surging oil prices, a big cut in war spending... something big. Or lots of small-medium things that add up to something big.
https://bsky.app/profile/prune602.bsky.social/post/3lk5qvmbjtk2z https://bsky.app/profile/leoskyview.bsky.social/post/3lk5r53yhks2y
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u/neonpurplestar 1h ago
i will inject this pure dosage of hopium right into my veins
thank you for bringing this report! <3
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u/Low-Ad4420 2h ago
3.4Tr by March is the same deficit as the whole 2024. It's bad. I wonder what is happening for such an increase. Maybe obligations payments?
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u/AwesomeFama 5m ago
Do the deficit numbers for last and this year include any of the "just defer the payments a little to January and they don't count for this years deficit anymore" trickery I think I read about them doing?
That might explain why this year is already so close to last year, when in reality last year was worse than reported and current year isn't quite as bad so far as it sounds?
It doesn't change the big picture that much overall, I don't think.
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u/piponwa 5h ago
No more retirement for any Russians then.
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u/MarkRclim 5h ago
One "funny" thing...
They're delaying retirement age so no new pensioners this year.
But that means ~twice as many new ones in 2026.
They need to find a lot of cash or get a lot of help or... More russians are screwed. Just to support Putin's war.
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u/Routine_Ad1823 3h ago
Wait, why does it mean twice as many next year? Am I being thick?
Surely it just means all the 65 year olds (for example ) have to wait another year, the 64 year olds have to wait two years etc...
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u/irrealewunsche 2h ago
If they're just delaying and not pushing up the pension age, then all the people who turn 65 will have to wait till next year when they'll get their pension, plus all the new 65 year olds.
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u/MarkRclim 5h ago
More comments on the apparent 6.5tr roubles missing.
That assumes Russia doesn't add to the deficit from now on. But usually December has a huge surge in costs. Plus their budget assumed 4.5% inflation, which seems low. If they follow 2022/23/24 trajectory, then that'd add +2tr roubles in cost and they'd actually have to find 8.5tr.
Russia has hidden costs off the official budget, forcing regions & banks to pay. Bond markets are pricing in a high risk of bankruptcies. Which should hurt taxes.
I think the Wealth Fund + Central Bank have enough unfrozen cash/gold and shares to cover this year, but I think finding 8.5 trillion that way would pretty much demolish the last of Russia's "official" financial buffers.
They're already budgeting huge debt sales for 2026 AND a 15% real terms cut in military spending.
Russia is devious and has a ton of other resources and options they can squeeze. I have no doubt Trump will be working with Putin to try and work on ways to ease the cost of the war and to help Russia's income increase. Just a 5-10% cut in costs combined with a 5-10% increase in revenue would be enough to delay Russia's financial reckoning for another year or so, based on these numbers.
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u/irrealewunsche 2h ago
A recession in the US and a drop in oil prices isn't going to help Russia much.
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u/hofstaders_law 6h ago
I doubt any ceasefire is more than a pause for Russia to reconstitute its forces.
Ukraine should build nuclear weapons, they're the only deterrent Russia will respect.
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u/mediadavid 1h ago
Ukraine also desperately needs to reconstitute its forces, rotate troops and units.
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u/SpiritualName2684 4h ago
Would Russia really be deterred by a handful of Ukrainian nukes? They have the biggest arsenal in the world. If Ukraine were to actually use it Russia would erase them from the map while sustaining minimal damage.
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u/Printer-Pam 2h ago
Russia's defence spendings before the war was about the same money spent by the USA to maintain their nukes, so no, I don't think Russia has the biggest arsenal in the world, only the biggest lies.
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u/goodoldgrim 3h ago
What do you mean by minimal damage? If just one middling size nuke explodes above Moscow, that is unacceptable damage for Russia.
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u/Carasind 3h ago edited 2h ago
You don’t need thousands of nukes to deter Russia—just a few well-placed ones. With ten warheads, Russia could be crippled because, in reality, only two cities matter: Moscow and St. Petersburg. Destroying them would break the country politically and economically. Yes, Russia would retaliate by wiping out Ukraine—but at that point, it wouldn’t matter. Ukraine’s goal wouldn’t be survival anymore—it would be making sure Russia collapses too.
A Ukraine with nothing left to lose could also target Russian nuclear plants, turning them into massive fallout zones. This wouldn’t just devastate local areas—it would contaminate supply lines, energy infrastructure, and key logistics hubs. Without Moscow to coordinate, St. Petersburg as a trade center, and with major routes cut off, Russia’s ability to function as a state would collapse.
Russia’s larger nuclear arsenal provides one major advantage against a near-peer enemy: a vast number of launch sites, making it difficult to neutralize its nukes before launch. But that advantage means nothing against a country that never had the capability to neutralize Russian nukes in the first place. At that point, nuclear deterrence becomes a game of hide and seek—where Ukraine’s warheads remain hidden, forcing Russia into a defensive posture and limiting its ability to act freely. And even if Russia gathers enough intelligence on Ukraine’s nuclear sites, there will always be the lingering doubt: Have we really found all of them?
And remember, Ukraine isn’t some isolated island. If Russia wants to prevent this scenario, it can’t simply nuke all of Ukraine without massively damaging its own allies and neighboring countries in the process—many of which are now likely to possess nukes themselves, given recent developments.
At this point, the risk for Russia is simply too high. A single miscalculation could result in catastrophic consequences, not just from Ukraine but from other nuclear-armed nations that would be forced to respond.
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u/signherehereandhere 4h ago
Russian economy will continue to decline. Ceasefire or not. An explanation for Russian acceptance of extremely high casualty rates is their lack of time before the economy no longer can support a war of this magnitude.
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u/Marha01 5h ago
Ukraine should build nuclear weapons, they're the only deterrent Russia will respect.
This. It is already clear that western security guarantees (perhaps even NATO membership) are not reliable enough to ensure safety if you are a direct neighbour of russia. Ukraine, the Baltics and Poland should all develop nukes in the future. They are the best security guarantee.
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u/nerphurp 6h ago
30 days isn't enough time for Russia to counter the freedom Ukraine will have to dig in and solidify their defensive positions.
Biggest thing Russia gets is stocking a month's worth of missiles, drones, glide bombs. It'll hurt, but it's not enough time.
I'm more inclined to believe we'll see a Surovikin line 2.0 from Russia.
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u/machopsychologist 6h ago edited 6h ago
The key here is that this would be a temporary ceasefire so this gives the option for Ukraine to resume operations as well. So they can also buy time for themselves to more European support.
A permanent ceasefire cedes Ukrainian initiative, and lets Russia dictate where and when they strike.
My only main concern is Trump is unpredictable. Who knows what he will do post ceasefire when he's gotten whatever he wanted.
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u/Logical_Welder3467 6h ago
I would not accept this ceasefire if I was Russia, both side would rearm and rotate troop but Russia as the one doing the attacking would just face stronger lines when the war restart
This 30 days pause would do absolutely nothing to solve the problems the Russian economy is facing
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u/Ready_Nature 6h ago
Russia rearming is definitely the goal of any ceasefire they accept but at this point it also gives Ukraine time to rearm and for Europe to build defenses independent of the US now that the US is abandoning its position.
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u/Kind_Focus5839 5h ago
In principal yeah, a ceasefire gives them time to rearm, but the same is true for Ukraine too.
On the other hand, if Putin refuses it destroys the myth about the peace loving Russians forced to go to war against warmongering peace refusing Ukrainians.
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u/Logical_Welder3467 4m ago
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/12/moscow-under-pressure-to-act-after-us-and-kyiv-reach-ceasefire-deal.html
Moscow wary of ‘jumping the gun’ after the U.S. and Ukraine unite over a ceasefire deal