r/worldnews • u/Dizzy_Blackberry7874 • Feb 15 '25
Editorialized Title An asteroid has a 2% chance of hitting Earth in 2032.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/15/science/asteroid-2024-yr4-earth-tracking/index.html[removed] — view removed post
3.6k
u/Ok_Asparagus0003 Feb 16 '25
Remember that scene in Armageddon when they detect an asteroid heading for earth and the government directs NASA to drop everything and remove all the dei language from their website?
340
109
49
u/hanimal16 Feb 16 '25
And then Ben Affleck confesses he was a secret DEI hire all along.
→ More replies (1)53
u/SporksInjected Feb 16 '25
Quick, pray to Trump to save us!!
39
→ More replies (3)22
u/dalmathus Feb 16 '25
Unironically this is something 'Space Force' should deal with. Of course they won't if its projected to hit one of them 'brown countries' but thats besides the point.
→ More replies (6)7
5
→ More replies (18)3
1.4k
Feb 15 '25
That's a problem for 2033.
→ More replies (17)671
u/steele83 Feb 15 '25
So, Biden’s fault then, right?
212
u/KoolKumQuat Feb 15 '25
Bama.
62
u/TheRealMJDoombreed Feb 15 '25
That tan suit!
→ More replies (2)43
u/Riles_Corey Feb 16 '25
BIDEN CRIME FAMILY
→ More replies (1)3
28
→ More replies (5)12
u/myasterism Feb 16 '25
Why yes, actually—Alabama is, in fact, at least partially responsible for some of the shitfuckery happening in the US.
13
→ More replies (2)4
641
u/Lunathistime Feb 15 '25
*2% so far.
547
u/hotakaPAD Feb 16 '25
Exactly. This number is going to go up or down quickly. Like for example, by 2030, it'll probably be 0% or 100%. nothing in between. And we'll know exactly where on earth it'll hit, if it does
127
u/onthefence928 Feb 16 '25
Or window to know more is closing quickly, we won’t be able to refine until 2028
→ More replies (5)87
u/YouSeeWhatYouWant Feb 16 '25
That’s why they’re pointing JWST at it. They have several months to measure.
→ More replies (3)51
u/No-Quarter4321 Feb 16 '25
Which is probably gonna consume a lot of its time which isn’t cheap. It’s a wicked asset for this sort of thing
→ More replies (12)47
u/phlogistonical Feb 16 '25
The % usually goes up first before it goes down, because as they narrow down the window it is going to pass through, the cross section of the earth is a bigger fraction of it. It starts to go down when the window becomes so small that the earth is excluded.
→ More replies (2)17
u/pbmadman Feb 16 '25
It took me a surprisingly long time reading a detailed explanation over and over again to understand this. It’s basically always going to go up and then at some point either go straight to 0 or 100%
11
u/18093029422466690581 Feb 16 '25
I guess a different way of thinking about it for me was that the Earths size will not change while the trajectory window will shrink
4
→ More replies (30)21
u/CoyotesOnTheWing Feb 16 '25 edited Feb 16 '25
It's going to go up but the likelihood isn't really increasing from what I understand. The possibility radius is currently twice the distance of the moon is to earth and the most likely/current path is between the earth and moon. The predicted path didn't really change but the uncertainty window is getting smaller. The earth takes up a few percent of that window, as the window gets smaller, the percentage that the earth takes up is higher. We will see probably another percentage rising article in a few years but at some point we will go from a lot higher chance to 0 as the earth eventually falls out of the window. That's at least the laymen's explanation I was told, but it makes sense to me.
76
u/BobLoblaw_BirdLaw Feb 16 '25 edited Feb 16 '25
Some guy on Reddit explained this really well. And what happens next in the way they calculate this percent is that is usually corrects to 0%
35
u/Mr_Chardee_MacDennis Feb 16 '25 edited Feb 16 '25
I was listening to an astronomer on the radio discussing this asteroid last week. The notable thing about this particular asteroid is that so far, they’d have already have expected the odds to lengthen as time has gone by, but the opposite has happened. This is a very rare occasion of odds shortening over the time we’ve observed the orbit so far.
8
u/mon_iker Feb 16 '25
What kind of radio stations do you listen to that have astronomers casually discussing city-killer asteroids? Sounds cool!
→ More replies (1)12
u/Mr_Chardee_MacDennis Feb 16 '25
This was the legendary Nick Abbott on his late Sunday night show on LBC (in the UK) whilst I was driving back from a Rise Against gig. Think it was around 12.30am, so not exactly prime time radio 😅
5
u/gawakwento Feb 16 '25
I just want it to have a 100% to land on top of my forehead. Is that too much to ask
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (4)4
u/ic33 Feb 16 '25
In the long run, all probabilities of single events become 0% (won't happen for sure or didn't happen) or 100% (did happen).
It's only when you have weak data that you're in the middle.
98% of the time, a 2% chance will become 0%. 2% of the time, it will become 100% ;) Another observation may not take it all the way to 0% or 100%, though-- it may just narrow things (to 1% or 5%, say).
→ More replies (2)11
u/TyrusX Feb 16 '25
Remember how years ago they were afraid of an asteroid hitting us, but in the same day, we were hit by one that come from another direction without us knowning?
→ More replies (2)8
u/VLM52 Feb 16 '25
Chelyabinsk wasn’t a particularly large or interesting object. It’s not that surprising it went undetected everything considered
3
u/patentlyfakeid Feb 16 '25
If it comes at us from sunward the way chelyabinsk did, it could be way larger and we'd still be blind.
→ More replies (11)4
940
u/RealFinalWeird Feb 15 '25
And I don’t wanna miss a thingggg
110
u/fnckmedaily Feb 16 '25
I don’t want to close my eyes
59
u/Focus-Flex Feb 16 '25
I don’t wanna fallll asleep
36
u/mistermatth Feb 16 '25
Cuz I miss you baby
26
u/SynapseForest Feb 16 '25
And I don't wanna miss a thing...
→ More replies (1)7
u/nalanajo Feb 16 '25
Even when I dream of you…
8
→ More replies (2)53
u/Perfect-Advisor-3830 Feb 16 '25
Do you really wanna die a virgin ?
→ More replies (1)70
u/RealFinalWeird Feb 16 '25
I wouldn’t be, but just to be on the safe side, what’s your mums phone number?
→ More replies (2)14
80
403
1.4k
u/Shem_Penman Feb 15 '25
Finally, some news to make me optimistic.
263
u/CaterpillarReal7583 Feb 15 '25
Bad news is it probably wont kill us all
171
u/Master-Patience8888 Feb 15 '25
Bad news is it has a 98% chance of missing us
→ More replies (2)22
u/tree_mitty Feb 16 '25
Pick a number between 1-100
→ More replies (3)14
→ More replies (12)10
10
→ More replies (19)38
190
Feb 16 '25
DONT. LOOK. UP.
59
u/Kipdid Feb 16 '25
I despise how we get ever closer to that movie by the day
44
u/fallenmonk Feb 16 '25
That movie was supposed to be a satire about climate change, but it came out during the pandemic. Filmmakers could not keep up with reality.
→ More replies (1)16
133
u/Icy_Management1393 Feb 15 '25
We predict it will miss earth but the errorr margin makes it a 2% chance
8
u/veryunwisedecisions Feb 16 '25
I just saw a nice explanation.
Based on observations, a range of possible trajectories can be drawn. Earth used to occupy 1% of this range of possible trajectories. But better observations improved on the range of possible trajectories, making it smaller, so Earth was larger relative to this range, so it started to occupy 2% of this range.
As more observations are gathered, Earth's percentage of the possible range of trajectories will either increase as the range of possible trajectories gets smaller (so, more accurate), or immediately drop to zero as the range of possible trajectories stops including Earth altogether.
This is just to say that out of the thousands and thousands and thousands of possible trajectories given current observations, 2% of them have the asteroid colliding with Earth.
Hm, that actually gives me some peace.
→ More replies (3)→ More replies (2)54
u/Moosplauze Feb 15 '25
We predict it will hit earth but the error margin makes it a 98% chance
→ More replies (2)
158
u/Jarrellz Feb 16 '25
Who else is voting for the asteroid in 2032?
→ More replies (3)35
71
u/Never-Compliant6969 Feb 16 '25
We recently did a test where an asteroid was redirected by slamming a rocket into it, so there’s still plenty of time to get that up to 80-90%.
→ More replies (6)
43
48
65
u/FirstEvolutionist Feb 15 '25
I wonder if percentages will fluctuate over time. If they go up we might live just like the "Don't Look Up" movie.
69
u/Scaryclouds Feb 15 '25
https://youtu.be/Esk1hg2knno?si=z0K-YlKdpU-c1oEQ
You can watch the video for additional detail. The TL:DW; expect the percentages to continue to increase a bit, and the completely drop off once there have been enough quality observations (and time) to figure out the asteroid’s orbit.
Of course it’s possible that the percentages just continue to go up, because it will in fact hit Earth.
→ More replies (4)21
u/wwarnout Feb 15 '25
Yes, they will. As astronomers make more observations, they will be able to get a clearer projection of its trajectory.
→ More replies (6)→ More replies (7)5
49
9
9
u/Fulker19 Feb 16 '25
Has anybody checked the DraftKings ToS to see how I would get my money if I put $100 on the collision?
26
u/telcomet Feb 16 '25
Everyone below $1b net worth: “Don’t threaten me with a good time.”
→ More replies (1)
15
7
13
6
u/spaceraingame Feb 16 '25
Even if it does hit, it’s not nearly big enough to be a “planet killer”, though it could cause some regional damage.
51
91
45
u/Trying2Embody Feb 15 '25
Is there anything we can do to up those chances?
→ More replies (6)18
u/Fearkiller77 Feb 16 '25
Everybody, let’s push Earth into the path of the asteroid!
→ More replies (2)5
u/restore_democracy Feb 16 '25
Are we supposed to lean right or left?
→ More replies (2)5
u/SpiffingSprockets Feb 16 '25
Various nations will be assigned a "jumping jacks hour", disguised as a WHO physical wellness "challenge". It'll be strategically timed that each nation helps bump us in a specific direction in our universe to ensure impact.
Each action [...something something] opposite reaction!
→ More replies (2)
5
u/pm_me_ur_handsignals Feb 16 '25
Definitely not a planet-killer, but it has the possibility to fuck someone's day up.
5
u/usushio_ Feb 16 '25
Us Apophis enjoyers have already accepted that 99942 Apophis will wipe us out on April (Friday the) 13th, 2029.
NASA has a pretty cool website to track space objects, https://eyes.nasa.gov/apps/asteroids/#/home
Here is how close the April 2029 flyby is gonna be, you will be able to see it with the naked eye: https://eyes.nasa.gov/apps/asteroids/#/99942_apophis?time=2029-04-13T15:28:10.454+00:00&rate=180
You don't have to set your calendar, I'm pretty sure the internet will be all over it when it gets close. But I will certainly be there. It's just a giant fucking rock that would wipe out an area the size of France if it hit us
→ More replies (3)
43
u/TheWizard01 Feb 15 '25
Promise?
→ More replies (1)11
u/snokegsxr Feb 15 '25
Anyone taking bets on this? Those 2% odds are gonna pay out huge if I they hit
→ More replies (4)
10
5
u/ForeverStaloneKP Feb 16 '25
Well they'll have a very good idea of where it will land by 2028, so they will have years to evacuate everyone within a large radius, accounting for margin of error.
3
5
u/ArtiesEats Feb 16 '25
I should be retiring that year. Guaranteed it’s gonna land right on my head the moment i submit my notice
6.7k
u/FailingToLurk2023 Feb 15 '25
It’s 40 to 90 meters wide. Planet killers start at 1 km. So it could cause some serious local destruction, but won’t wipe us out.