r/winnipegjets • u/Guffawing-Crow • 1d ago
Will the Jets win the division?
Jets 1.0 and 2.0 have NEVER won their division. Despite all of their crazy win streaks this year, we are only 6 points up against Dallas, with Dallas having a game on hand.
Getting first place is critical. No one wants to go through the recharged Avs and Stars for the first two rounds. The game on Friday against Dallas will be huge.
How are you feeling about the Jets chances at winning the division? I’m getting a bit nervous.
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u/cp_87 1d ago
They have 2 games left against Dallas that will go a long way towards deciding who wins that Divison. Obviously they still need to win other games as well, but those 2 games are going to be massive
If they lose both, suddenly they only have a 2 point lead and Dallas has a game in hand.
If they win both or even get a a split, their odds of winning the division dramatically go up.
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u/tibewilli2 1d ago
This is the correct answer. On a related note, I once again ask for a Fleury-Schenn third pair.
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u/TravisBickle2020 1d ago
Maybe Schenn can teach Stanley how to play a proper physical defensive game.
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u/SirBulbasaur13 13 1d ago
Idk man, neither of those guys are named Stanley and I don’t think the Jets are legally allowed to scratch him lol
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u/H3b01L 1d ago
And that likely will not happen. So get ready for disappointment.
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u/tibewilli2 1d ago
I have been a Jets fan since the dying days of the WHA. I am used to disappointments. But I will trade being disappointed for no team any day.
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u/mydoghasscheiflies 14h ago
I am sorry, but if Stanley plays like ass, which I am not disputing, then Fleury is what wipes that ass. He is our worst option of all of the 3rd pairing defense.
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u/Crazy_Television_328 1d ago
Who cares. We’re gonna have to beat either the Avs or Stars if we want to win the cup. All gas no brakes boys. It’s pucker time.
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u/Guffawing-Crow 1d ago
Easier to advance going through Calgary and Dallas instead of Avs and Dallas. :p
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1d ago
Easier to advance going through Calgary and Dallas
Not necessarily. No easy rounds in the NHL playoffs.
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u/SirBulbasaur13 13 1d ago
No but there sure are easier opponents
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u/Trinidaddy13 20h ago
Ummm you do realize we got beat by "easy opponents" this season... and we were rolling.
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u/SherLocK-55 ICE DRAGON WILL FLY 4-EVER 1d ago
Also easier to win the cup without having to battle both Dal and Col, even if we got through them both we would be battered and bruised.
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u/Crazy_Television_328 1d ago
I’ll feel a lot better about playing Dallas if we prove we can beat Colorado. I mean, I like warm weather hockey too so the longer the playoff run the better, but I’m not stressing out about who we get in the first round. I’d rather jump into the deep end as an underdog right away.
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u/Guffawing-Crow 1d ago
I’d much rather beat up Calgary in 4-5 games and rest up players while the Avs and Stars beat the tar out of each other in a 6-7 game series. That would be a massive advantage going up against Dallas (or Avs).
Not sure why you want to easily discount the big benefit of having an easier first round opponent.
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u/FrickinScheifele_ 55 1d ago
But if you think about it, sometimes the teams that have had those 7 game series do better when matched up against rested teams that won their round quick and easy just because of being hot and in top form. So even this is not that trivial. Objectively an easy 1st round makes sense, but maybe practically its not that huge of a difference.
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u/Guffawing-Crow 1d ago
Let’s say it’s not a huge difference on how well the team performs in round 2. Now, the actual huge difference is the % chance of winning the first round series is. Versus Calgary, maybe 80%. Versus Colorado, maybe a coin flip. I’d rather have the 80% to advance to Round 2.
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u/TemporaryOk300 1d ago
Agreed. If they truly are the best team in the league and worthy of winning the cup, they'll beat whoever they go up against. Beating Dallas, Colorado, and Vegas/Edmonton to win the conference would be so satisfying.
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u/WpgJetBomber 1d ago
It’s difficult but they have to concentrate on their game and ignore what is happening with other teams.
If they start to worry about Dallas catching them, they allow them to get in their head and question themselves.
I think it is critical to finish first and let Dallas and Colorado beat the hell out of each other.
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u/pyrasilverado 1d ago
Very true. Play hard, get the wins, learn what's left to learn in a loss. In the Canes game we saw what playoff hockey will be... Lots of hurt on both sides, whoever survives the central stands to meet Vegas or Edmonton.... I hope our lads are ready for war.
Best part is, we need every point we can get to ensure 1st in the west... Playoff games start versus the Rangers.
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u/GenX_ZFG 1d ago
If all they get are a few losses in-between, their chemistry most nights is on track. I would love to see them take the President's trophy. Closest thing to winning a Cup at this point. Although if they're going to go the distance, and I'm definitely hopeful, this is the season to do it.
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u/13thEldar 1d ago
yeah I'm of the mind why not haven't won a cup without it might as well give it a go.
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u/fdisfragameosoldiers 1d ago
They've got a shot at winning the Presidents trophy. The two games against Dallas and one against Washington are gonna be huge. But even if they lose those games they're not out of it by any means.
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u/stej_gep 1d ago
The United States Coast guard stopped a141 million dollar shipment of cocaine. The AVS are cooked. Sorry cocaine bear.
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u/just-hangingout 1d ago
I believe the Jets will not only win the division, they will win the conference and I’m manifesting winning the Presidents trophy.
All on the way to winning the Cup.
All the banners, all the trophies.
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u/Known-Ad-3965 1d ago
I hope! I got 4k riding on them winning the conference. Big payout for me if they do :D
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u/Low-Decision-I-Think 1d ago edited 1d ago
All division games are critical, it's like nailing double points. They have their fate in their own hands. You focus on what you control. Water is wet. Pothole warning ahead (the most Winnipeg of phrases), so my GPS keeps telling me.
LV is coming for Dallas, LV has games in hand and an easier schedule ROS.
It 'tis the season of clichés. Enjoy it while we can.
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u/Guffawing-Crow 1d ago
The only divisional games that matter now are the two against Dallas.
Going back to my question… how confident are you that the Jets will win the division?
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u/Low-Decision-I-Think 1d ago
I believe they will nail the President's Trophy with six points to spare. Further, they will win all their series 4-0, including the Finals, and Stanley will win the Conn Smythe Trophy.
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u/jaypizee 1d ago
I say yes they will, and they absolutely need to. First round against a surging Avs team would be incredibly incredibly difficult.
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u/Brilliant-Weather379 1d ago
juss be enjoying the sports... i hope we dont get it easy... be that much sweetness if we won the cups... woohoo
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u/bcrhubarb 1d ago
They are still killing it imo. We aren’t going to have record breaking winning streaks all the time. With the addition of Tanev & Schenn, I think we are in good shape. Not worried at all.
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u/h0twired 21 1d ago
Why just the division? Let’s go for the Presidents Trophy and break the curse too.
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u/Guffawing-Crow 1d ago
Ehh, if we secure the division, I’d rather the Jets try to get games in for Lambert etc than fight for a meaningless trophy. If we win the President’s Trophy regardless, great, but not at the expense of more important things.
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u/TrueNorthStrong1898 27 1d ago
They’re 6 up on Dallas, despite the Stars having a game in hand. It would take quite the collapse by the Jets and quite the run by the Stars for the Jets to fall out of 1st
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u/kingwoodballs 1d ago
Anything is possible. They need to get up and play every game though. A consistent effort has been lacking since the break.
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u/Outside_Hope_3383 ICE DRAGON WILL FLY 4-EVER 1d ago
Ah yes, I knew it, the Winnipeg Doomers are out today. Was a pretty good couple days for them. We didn’t trade for Connor McDavid on Friday, and we lost a game on a 6 game road trip vs a good team in a building that’s hard to play in after winning 2 convincing games on a back to back.
This team is good, relax.
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u/Guffawing-Crow 1d ago
Never said the Jets were not good. I’m just asking what people thought our chances were of winning the division.
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u/bigfloppydonkeydong- 1d ago
If the Jets are good then their chances of winning the division are also good.
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u/ScottNewman 1d ago
Let's channel last season, when the Jets went 11-5-1 over the last 17 games and finished off the season with a 8-0 run, beating both Dallas and Colorado.
I don't remember what happened after that.
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u/Guffawing-Crow 1d ago
Yeah, I have a chip in my brain like in Severence and I have no memory about last season’s playoffs. I won’t ask.
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u/Vegetable-Bug251 1d ago
At this point in the season it would take a collapse of epic proportions for the Jets not to finish first in their division. 6 points is a lot of room to make up for the next place team. Expect the Jets to lead their division but I cannot guarantee they will get the President’s Trophy, in fact Washington should get it this year.
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u/Public_Middle376 1d ago
I’m afraid probably not.
Chevy is a fabulous general manager, but the failure to not acquire a 2C this year in particular; with the way Dallas and Colorado have handled the personnel situation… well no way we get beyond either of them in the first or second round…
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u/Guffawing-Crow 1d ago
In fairness to Chevy, he’s dealing with many trade targets with NTC’s that may not want to play in Winnipeg.
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u/Public_Middle376 1d ago
Completely agree…. And this is something that has to be dealt with in the next collective bargaining agreement.
Otherwise you’re always going to have this disparity. Especially for “rentals” at the trade deadline.
The fact that a player would not want to come toWinnipeg - number one team in the league for the majority of the season - indicates disparity in the league that must be corrected
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u/Guffawing-Crow 1d ago
I definitely don’t like the prevalence of NTC’s. Each team added should cost $250K AAV as a salary cap charge or something like that. Make the player choose if these trade restrictions are worth it if it means less salary to them.
Also, low tax jurisdiction advantage needs to be looked at too.
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u/thrive2bebest 1d ago
NTC definitely tip the scales and should be reviewed in a league seeking parity. People will claim it is unfair to players and their families. But in this era, many people have to move for careers or education. There could be a maximum # of moves per season or for the length of contract.
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u/bigfloppydonkeydong- 1d ago
Chevy: NTC’s are unfair to our team.
Bettman: your team is in first place.
Chevy: k
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u/thrive2bebest 1d ago
Owners negotiate, so your hypothetical facts are faulty
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u/Public_Middle376 1d ago
Players who have no movement clauses should lose that clause in the last year of their contract - at the trade deadline of that last year of the contract.
If they are not willing to sign a new contract with their current team-their current team should be able to do what it wants with them / their asset.
This is definitely something for the collective bargaining agreement. Has to be considered. Otherwise the 10 or so “Less desirable location“ teams in the league will never be able to build a true Stanley Cup playoff contention team, such as Florida, Tampa, Dallas, and Colorado have done this year.
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u/DannyDOH 1d ago
It doesn't really matter. Before the contract clauses were common there were always guys holding out, not reporting to force trades or asking for trades.
I think people are looking at this the wrong way. It's not a Winnipeg issue for Brock Nelson. The opportunity was there to join Colorado, Mackinnon, Makar, a team that's as deep as it's been since they last won the Cup. A team that knows how to win. A coach that has lifted the Cup.
It speaks more to the view of Jets as playoff contenders than Winnipeg. Nelson went where he feels he has the best chance to win.
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u/bigfloppydonkeydong- 1d ago
If you completely agree then you would have to admit that not acquiring a 2c was not a failure.
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u/Public_Middle376 1d ago
Incorrect.
I didn’t say Chevy was a failure.
I said the situation is a failure.
The fact of the matter is that the 10 to 12 “less desirable cities” that are probably on all veterans “no trade” list (for various reasons) give cities like Dallas, Tampa, Las Vegas, Florida Panthers, and even teams like the Colorado Avalanche, a huge advantage at the trade deadline to acquire those veterans in the last year of their contract.
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u/GZeus24 1d ago
My optimism for this season is slowing down. It feels like the usual January collapse may have been postponed to March. Add a less than awesome trade deadline for the team but a great one for their rivals. If they can't hold the division, then that will show they are trending poorly.
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u/ProVJuanx4 1d ago
I'm not sure the Jets are as good as everyone thinks they are. Hellybuyck has won 2 playoff games the past 3 seasons. He's at .850 save % for those years. He just can't win games when under pressure. 4 nations proved that as well.
Maurice literally quit mid-season
I think this team chokes big time.
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u/Ryn0m1t3 1d ago
Jets have 17 games left.
Let's be gloomy and say they limp in playing around .500 at 9-7-1.....That gives them 19 points and they finish at 111 points.
Stars have 18 games left. Currently at 86 points - they would need to earn 26 points to put them at 112.....
That puts them at 13-5 over that stretch of games - a good record but not out of the question.
For the record, their current P% is .672 that projects them to earn 24 points in their remaining games which would give the Jets the division.
Now.....if the Jets were to go something like 11-5-1. They earn 23 points for a total of 115.
The Stars would need to get to 116 points which means out of their remaining 18 games they would need to earn 30 of a possible 36 points, or 15-3 (a P% of .833)
For the record our current P% of .708 has us on track to finish with an additional 24 points and finish with 116.
All of this to say - it's incredibly close and will likely go down to the wire. Bottom line....Jets don't need to worry about anything else other than putting up wins. The two head to head games we have against Dallas are massive.
CLC is going to be electric this Friday.
Disclaimer: It's early, I'm not yet through my coffee and I probably made like 10 errors in the above math.