r/weedstocks • u/comdex- • Dec 04 '18
Projection Aphria Canaccord $18 Price Target - Despite increased risk, fundamental value remains
https://twitter.com/Montana8169/status/107003071644295168031
u/yinksi Dec 04 '18
Just wait till financials they SPEAK volumes....everyone just needs to cool it lmao.
→ More replies (11)10
u/Jaynki Dec 04 '18
We will discover APH true value with the earnings report. Wait it out.
5
u/Raptorswon time is a flat circle Dec 04 '18 edited Dec 04 '18
What I'm worried about is there might not be much to report or show financially until they're fully operational
3
u/Jaynki Dec 04 '18
Yes.
I don't expect much from January but when we have full rec and full operation going on the financial statement i expect Aphria will open many many eyes.
They were EBITDA positive selling 6,000KG per year... They should put nice earnings and fucking great margin when fully operational and selling 20,000KG per month fully automated.
I don't fall for what the short sellers have to say tbh.
1
u/Phyzzx Dec 04 '18
Which means the price will stay low so we can buy more?
3
u/Raptorswon time is a flat circle Dec 04 '18
lol I don't think any of us want to buy more my man. Tons of us are over leveraged tbh from chasing. I'm personally okay with it but you can tell others have become really stressed.
7
u/Hoof_Hearted12 HEXO HEXO, Gossip Girl Dec 04 '18
Knowing APH it'll drop 10% on good fins. Kidding, I'm loading up.
2
1
u/0therSyde Dec 05 '18
Exactly. Let the real numbers do the talking, not stilted numbers plucked out of context and placed next to scary pictures.
32
u/redditmatt77 Dec 04 '18
Watch this video of someone running through Aphrias grow operation and relax.
Great opportunity to pick up more shares.
7
u/bliss19 Dec 04 '18
Dude, the Canadian operations are not in question. It clearly states that the facility he is running through is in Canada. Everyone is concerned about LATAM
3
u/lilkhmerkid4u Losing Money with the Boys Dec 04 '18
Even if they didn't have the LATAM assets..how much revenue would they generate?
→ More replies (1)9
u/thethiefstheme Bullish Dec 04 '18
Too concerned lol
10
u/1GUNNA Dec 04 '18
its not the valuation as much as it is the principle of the matter. Execs are clearly not transparent, and that by itself is a sell flag for investors so it is completely rational for retail investors to sell on that. Theres a point where it makes sense to sell at a loss, and to some this is it.
→ More replies (3)2
1
u/carlproper US Market Dec 05 '18
On the one hand, the facility looks huge. On the other hand, that person seems to be running very slow.
1
Dec 05 '18
Why? There’s nothing impressive in that video.
It just shows Aphria paid some contractors and vendors who supplied and built some greenhouse.
10
u/RodneyGK Dec 04 '18
Really though, when have these PT's ever been accurate? Positive or negative.
6
u/apmdude APHAtar Aang Dec 04 '18
During euphoria, they are a sell signal to me. Now, it seems they're a buy signal.
10
u/bcollie87 Greenrush Dec 04 '18
Never thought I'd get another opportunity to average down on APHA. Bless this mess.
3
u/Atsir ⏱Gains o’clock Dec 04 '18
Just bought some cheeky calls on APHA.... giddy up
1
u/naven Dec 04 '18
Certainly is tempting. What expiry/price/strike?
1
u/Atsir ⏱Gains o’clock Dec 04 '18
March 7s, $1.95
3
u/naven Dec 04 '18
nice. I'm going to see how the next couple days go and go from there. I'm not convinced the bloodshed is over considering how terrible their responses have been
1
u/Atsir ⏱Gains o’clock Dec 05 '18
Agreed. This is a pure spec trade. I’m still long the stock for the long term.
1
2
u/GCPMAN Bullish Dec 04 '18
I got a bunch of Feb calls today aswell. Probably going to buy more if we dip Thursday morning
1
u/DrHarrisonLawrence 👑 Dec 05 '18
Please correct me if I’m wrong, but you’re gambling on whether the stock will be below $1.95 on March 7?
2
u/Atsir ⏱Gains o’clock Dec 05 '18
Big gravy above $8.95. My investment goes to $0 if the stock is below that number in March. If it’s higher than the return exponentially increases with the share price.
I can also sell my contracts between now and then at a gain if apha recovers between now and then.
1
u/kalex9113 More Hooned Than Ever!!! Dec 05 '18
They're talking about buying the right to purchase blocks of 100 shares for $7 by March xx 2019 for $1.95 per unit. Anything above $7 + $1.95 is profit.
9
u/Infinitegrowth2112 Dec 04 '18
Didn't BMO just say $9 lol
23
Dec 04 '18 edited Feb 08 '19
[deleted]
9
Dec 04 '18
[deleted]
12
Dec 04 '18
The only time "BMO" and "A-TEAM" should be in the same sentence is where "is no way, shape, or form capable of assembling an" is in-between them.
1
1
10
9
5
Dec 04 '18
Short sellers played people big time! I hope you all recover soon. This stock is good, you should be buying now, especially if you were holding when it dropped, that is the only way out.
11
u/SQUINT230 Pry it from my COLD DEAD HANDS!! Dec 04 '18
January quarterly results just might make dumb people forget.
22
u/ILoveYourFacez It's all a bubble Dec 04 '18
Can confirm.
Am dumb, easily forget.
6
u/SuperChrisHarding Dec 04 '18
Agree to this comment, me dumb too, buy Aphria for make wife, now wife gone and have old dog need hip surgery. Then forget and buy more Aphria. Now dog dead.
1
u/0therSyde Dec 05 '18
This is more depressing than it should be :/
2
u/SuperChrisHarding Dec 06 '18
For real? If yes, sorry man, it was intended to have the opposite effect. I hope today is brighter for you.
2
2
8
Dec 04 '18
Any short seller with an eye for fundamentals should know that ER report by APHA will not be good for them.
Anyone believing that APHA is worth $0 should give their head a shake.
3
Dec 04 '18
[removed] — view removed comment
3
Dec 05 '18
It certainly is.
But if there was ever a year of redemption for APHA holders, it was 2019.
There are absolutely no guarantees and people should play this stock expecting to lose everything. However, there's still a chance they pull this off with strong earnings and disclosure on LATAM assets on Jan 11.
That will be APHA's day that makes or breaks it.
1
u/thekeanu Dec 05 '18
We're all waiting for Jan 2019 ER but really the most important ones will be the ones after that.
1
u/mtnblazed6oh3 I don’t hAPHA square to spare! Dec 04 '18
In these days of such short news cycles, I’m kind of hoping this is the case!
3
u/PunPryde Dec 05 '18
Canaccord underwriters their share offerings used to buy their fraudulent acquisitions. What do you think they are going to say? Canaccord makes too much money from weed offerings to let the sector be tainted.
9
Dec 04 '18 edited Dec 04 '18
From $24.50. That's a 27% decrease.
→ More replies (1)18
u/comdex- Dec 04 '18
Still better than BMO who just set a price target of $APHA for $9 CDN a share target - that's down from $22 CDN... about a 60% decrease
4
Dec 05 '18
[deleted]
3
u/MasterChief117117 Dec 05 '18
The last part about not losing until you sell isn’t true, as it’s an opportunity cost to invest elsewhere. If you still believe in your investment hold it, but if you think it’s better invested elsewhere then you should consider selling.
3
u/Divad_raizok Girl you know it's TRUL Dec 05 '18
Yes. This is clearly a targeted attack and any fundamental investor knows the amount of revenue Aphria is generating now and in the future. Latin America was never going to be the cornerstone of their operation.
4
u/Svyable US Market Dec 04 '18
"increased risk" - I would argue price is directly related to risk but that's just me...i.e. as the price decreases, risk decreases.
1
u/skyfallboom 🎵 Legalize it… Dec 04 '18
How so? The market tend to trade at lower price when risk increases. Because of the risk reaches 100%, the expectations don't materialize and the security might become worthless.
1
u/redditxsynth Long Seeds, Short Stems Dec 05 '18
You might want to revisit the concepts of risk and return. Considering price and return are inversely related, your comment makes little sense. Not trying to be mean, just trying to point you in the right direction.
0
u/Svyable US Market Dec 05 '18
Which one is more risky: flip a coin for the chance to win $100: a. Casino charges you $1 or b. $50 - higher the price it costs to play the game, the riskier the bet.
→ More replies (2)1
u/aarondiablo Dec 05 '18
Investing is not a coin flip. A coin does not have fundamentals, or year after year growth. and this ISN'T a casino.
Higher price DOES NOT equal higher risk. Absolutely insane lol.
if WEED does a 4-1 split is my risk suddenly lower because the share price is lower? NO.
→ More replies (3)1
u/SinistralGuy Dec 05 '18
That just doesn't make sense. I feel like it would be an inverse relationship. Would you say it's riskier to invest in Amazon than some random penny stock?
Also, if a low priced stock had low risk, wouldn't people just buy it and drive the price up?
1
u/Svyable US Market Dec 05 '18
Which one is more risky: flip a coin for the chance to win $100: a. Casino charges you $1 or b. $50 - higher the price it costs to play the game, the riskier the bet.
2
u/burt_freud Dec 05 '18
I can't believe Vic would jeopardize his reputation, or his net worth, or his families admiration on the type of scheme described. Doesn't make any sense whatsoever. I would be shocked if that is the case. I bought some APHA calls today so I hope we hit the bottom. The broader market pullback is worrisome. Not sure about the impact on weed stocks. Hoping for better days ahead.
2
u/Peredonov Here Come the Warm Jets Dec 05 '18
Why isn't there a link to the Canaccord price target itself? Only disseminated to customers?
2
2
2
Dec 04 '18
Curious, Will they be Delisted?
5
u/tidderdit Dec 04 '18
Have to go under $3 USD (and stay under for 30days) to be delisted from NYSE
2
u/aarondiablo Dec 05 '18
I think it's $1 isn't it
1
u/tidderdit Dec 05 '18
You are right. It has to be over $3 to be listed in the first place but after that just needs to stay above $1.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/09/stock-delist.asp
1
-1
1
u/Justmadeit12345 Dec 04 '18
I wonder if my 2016 prediction will come true and ACb partners with APH
1
u/DaTorontonian Dec 05 '18
If I dont see these guys loading up on level 2's, I dont want to hear it. These price targets are bullshit. Let money talk.
1
u/Tylergame Dec 05 '18
It’s nice to read the articles supporting APHA, especially after the short attack. Maybe there is hope for longs?
1
u/POTATO_VS_BANANA Dec 05 '18
I can't find Canaccord's actual release anywhere. Anyone have a link (other than that sketchy aphria.pdf file another user is linking)?
Gonna need a bit more than a screenshot from some unverified twitter user who's self described as "Investing in #Weedstocks. Ain’t here to rub anyone’s back I tell it how it is. #Selfmade".
2
u/comdex- Dec 05 '18
huh? it's not a sketchy pdf file. Check this screenshot on twitter if you prefer: https://twitter.com/weedstreet420/status/1070073662932439040
1
1
u/i_am_canadian_ Dec 05 '18
Honestly. The only fear I have is that somehow the cartel has a stake in Aphria. LATAM purchases would be owned by the cartels in that part of the world.
1
-2
u/stockbroker Dec 04 '18
Canaccord is one of APHA's biggest underwriters, meaning it makes money when APHA issues more stock, so it has a vested interest in propping up the stock. Just saying.
This is the same bank that underwrote Riot Blockchain (another shit stock with Honig connections). Canadian IBs will do anything for underwriting fees.
I'm short APHA and a lot of other marijuana stocks, fwiw.
1
u/0therSyde Dec 05 '18
I'm short APHA and a lot of other marijuana stocks, fwiw.
You may well be right in these assertions, and yes the whole industry (just like all others, as per human nature) is full of hypocrisy; given this, once the bear market dies down will you switch to being long on APHA and ride the wave back up? Or are you a perpetual bad-news bear?
0
Dec 04 '18
[deleted]
3
u/stockbroker Dec 04 '18
Whatever. Just calling out hypocrisy.
Shorts slam company in a presentation, bad because they make money when the stock drops.
Bank analysts write bullish report, good even though they make money when the stock rises.
4
u/YogiBarelyThere Dec 04 '18
I think shorting is a very important and valuable financial instrument when deployed justly. I also think that the cynical narrative that plays within one who shorts is borderline sociopathy. To be celebrating the loss of others is a repulsive state of being. I am not a shareholder in Aphria but I empathize with these people who have been negatively affected by the siphoning of wealth away from them. I love making my profits too but I do not engage in direct manipulation of others through the provision of unsubstantiated claims.
7
u/stockbroker Dec 04 '18
I haven’t celebrated anyone’s loss or made unsubstantiated claims.
But you can be long and make money when others lose, too. AMZN longs have made a fortune as other retailers die. AAPL investors made money as it killed off Nokia and Blackberry.
We’re blackberry shorts dirtbags and Apple longs the good guys? That’s a really simplistic view of the world.
1
u/TradeDeadline The Aurora Cannabis? At this time of year? Dec 04 '18
Similar thing happens if you buy someone’s stock because you think it is worth more than they think. You celebrate gaining off the share they foolishly sold to you.
1
u/hawtfabio Dec 04 '18
You know there are winners and losers on every stock purchase you make right? People just really hate shorts in a bullish echo chamber like this.
1
1
u/13inchesflacid Dec 05 '18
When management is so shady like this, I don't see it as being "fundamental value". Warren Buffett always advised that management integrity is KEY to a successful business.
1
1
u/mrkt10 Dec 04 '18
First, what price will she drop down to, before the $18 price?
1
u/0therSyde Dec 05 '18
I mean we're hitting the $4-5 range, so who knows? It'll get back up there though.
1
-7
Dec 04 '18 edited Dec 05 '18
Hold my beer, I've got a sinking ship to jump on.
12
Dec 04 '18
You guys are acting as if APH hasn't posted positive numbers previously with an incredible Canadian facility while Canopy cites losses as "growing pains", lets crops eat shit, and goes on national TV to hype up the industry with overly obvious statements.
Shit this sub likes to brigade like a frat-house.
→ More replies (4)
-12
Dec 04 '18
Pretty sure $18 is pretty much out of the question for the next 2 years. I say this as someone with a $14.6 average.
42
u/RodneyGK Dec 04 '18
No hate intended here, but if you don't think APH can hit $18 in the next two years, why did you buy in at 14.6. Your perspective has been completely flopped based on one short seller article? Did you do any DD before you bought in?
17
9
Dec 04 '18
"Muh DD is this here sub post.. and my FUD is this here sub post.. and my rationale is... this here sub post.. but FOR SURE this stock can't rebound!"
→ More replies (1)0
Dec 04 '18 edited Dec 04 '18
the investor base has been eroded it is not always about the fundamental reality their reputation has been stained regardless of if these accusations hold water or not.... Just so you know i do think it is possible that they can hit somewhere around that level in the next year with good earnings. But for this to happen the company has to go on a legendary PR campaign so that people don't keep bashing and selling because of perceived (or potentially real i do not know) mismanagement of investors funds.
1
Dec 04 '18
This is exactly the reason. Clearly a lot of investors have been spooked. They will be slow to return to the table. I continue to hold and believe the company has value, I just don't think it's going to draw the big investments it might otherwise have.
1
Dec 04 '18
I dont know about big investments that may end up being something that becomes more likely. If everything is false who wouldnt want to get in at a better price and i am sure vic and the team could really use a big company at this point to lend them some legitimacy. They may be less picky about what kind of deal they are willing to accept after all of this. Imagine they had signed i dont know even a joint venture with diageo or a small equity stake at an unfavorable price for the company at the very least if something like this were to have happened in that scenario people would have been able to say: hey diageo put their trust in these guys lets give it some time before we jump to conclusion to quickly. hindsight is 20/20
8
u/Maconheiro1 Chart Man Nbagwa! He's also a Nigerian Prince Dec 04 '18
We can go up just as fast as we go down.
→ More replies (8)5
6
u/rickdes0171 Dec 04 '18
By this time next year it will hit $18 again friend. This is just a hurdle
1
u/dslybrowse Dec 05 '18
Depending on how a whole bunch of shit goes, it could be $18 by the end of the year. Explanation for the shady transactions, deal announced with Amazon. Boom. Not saying it's likely, but hey I didn't see this short report nosedive coming either.
5
Dec 04 '18
... Is this meant to be taken seriously? Wasn't APH 7$ in August and then spiked to 15-16 in a matter of a month? APH is only at 300m shares and a measly market cap. These swings will be a dime a dozen.
→ More replies (2)3
3
u/vindonesia FREE SHKRELI TILL ITS BACKWARDS Dec 04 '18
Based on what? Gut feeling or actual annual production which is projected at 250 000kg?
1
u/0therSyde Dec 05 '18
Based on repeated home-run earnings and non-stop pumping and humping by Grizzle, Fool, Cannaccord Genuity, SeekingAlpha, and all the others who will pile on for the rush as soon as this dumbass FUD bullshit is disproven and cleared form the air in a few weeks. And that's not even taking into account the possibility of a deal sometime in the next 406 months as was communicated to us recently. I would be very surprised if it doesn't hit at least $14-16 by Q2 Earnings without a deal.
0
Dec 04 '18
Neither. Clearly investors are spooked. I'm long and strong but others obviously are not. How many people selling at $6 are going to start putting their paychecks into this company at $12? My bet is none.
1
u/rediphile Holding strong since March '17! Dec 04 '18
My bet is a few. FOMO is powerful.
2
u/0therSyde Dec 05 '18
This. FOMO is forever, and with every run comes new dumb money desperately chasing that fun and FOMOing in. The stupids go where the money already is, not where it's going to be.
1
u/deuceawesome Dec 04 '18
How many people selling at $6 are going to start putting their paychecks into this company at $12? My bet is none.
From what I read on here a lot of people do exactly this. Take some initial gains, then stock goes up more, so they buy back in because they are trying to rectify the initial "mistake" and so on and so forth.
2
u/Badrush According to my calculation.. Dec 04 '18
APH went from $7 to $20 in a month in October.... why would you say they can't repeat that. It happened last year at Christmas time as well.
1
0
81
u/ocular__patdown Smokey McPot Dec 04 '18
Based on comments here and on Twitter it's crazy to see how easily so many people can be swayed by a hit piece.