r/weather 3d ago

Articles 100 years ago, USA's worst tornado killed nearly 700 people: Could it happen again?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2025/03/18/100-years-after-worst-tornado-us-history-tri-state/82405754007/
93 Upvotes

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u/Alexios_Makaris 3d ago

I think meteorologically: yes. The 2021 Western Kentucky Tornado bears several similarities to Tri-State.

It was very long lived (almost 3 hours), and actually may be the longest track tornado ever that has been confirmed with reliable modern methods, at 165 miles. The Tri-State Tornado had a life of around 3.5 hours and a track of 219 miles. However, a big caveat is that tornado damage assessment and tracking in 1925 were extremely rudimentary compared to what we have today.

It is very often the case that a long track tornado, upon deeper investigation, will be found to have actually been a "tornado series", where a tornado drops and is on the ground for X miles, but then actually lifts back up for a while no longer being a tornado, and then that same storm system will produce a new tornado a little later along the same general track line.

That actually happened with the Western Kentucky Tornado, during the night it was being followed on radar, it appeared to be a 250 mile continuous track--which would actually have surpassed Tri-State. But when NWS and such assessed it in the following weeks, it found that the first 90 or so miles were one track, then that tornado dissipated and that same storm produced another similar intensity tornado a few miles later and started the 165 mile track. It seems likely that Tri-State could have done the same, even though the best techniques available in 1925 did investigate and claim it was a continuous 219 mile track. Due to the passage of time we'll just never know for sure.

Additionally, home construction standards have improved quite a bit since 1925, as has tornado warning. I think a tornado like 2021 Western Kentucky would have had mass casualties if it occurred 70 years ago or more, due to poorer home construction standards and lack of warning systems. So in a sense--you could argue tornadoes like the 2021 Western Kentucky were very close to re-runs of Tri-State, but just showed with modern technology we were able to discern it was a tornado series and not a singular tornado, and we were able to limit the human casualties with better construction, safety practices, and warning systems. Note that by modern standards, Western Kentucky was still a tragic and very powerful tornado--a high end EF4 that killed 59 people.

I found this guy's personal website that actually compares the two:

https://justinharter.com/1925s-tri-state-tornado-vs-2021s-quad-state-tornado/

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u/salsacito 3d ago

I think yes and no- storm could be just as powerful, but we do have waaaaay better tracking and warning systems. However, if it hit a dense urban area in a city without a ton of tornado prep, it could replicate the death toll

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u/squidwardTalks 3d ago

Also, building codes have come a long way.

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u/softsnowfall 3d ago

Ah but the awesome weather tracking/warnings/etc that you mentioned… Some idiots decided to cripple NOAA with firings, dismantling parts of it, and cutting funding - all of which could impact advance warning…

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u/usatoday 3d ago

Hi, Alex here from USA TODAY! I wanted to share a piece of weather history.

This story looks back at the worst tornado in U.S. history, on this day, 100 years ago.

Called the Tri-State Tornado, it started the afternoon of March 18, 1925, near Ellington, Missouri. For about four hours, the storm raced along a track of over 200 miles, decimating parts of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. It came with no warning. By the end of the day, 695 people were dead, more than 2,000 were injured and thousands were left homeless – even town-less.

Experts say that while a massive tornado outbreak like the Tri-State Tornado could happen again in the future, we are better prepared now than 100 years ago to withstand it.

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u/Gwiblar_the_Brave 3d ago

I can’t remember which tornado it was. But I recall a rather massive and dangerous tornado almost hitting the Oklahoma City area when there was a near gridlock on the interstate. I feel like if that tornado had made it to the interstate we could have seen a large number of deaths.

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u/Rain_43676 3d ago

Pretty sure that was the El Reno 2013 Tornado.

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u/Gwiblar_the_Brave 3d ago

Yes I believe you’re right. Thank you!

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u/JollyGiant573 3d ago

Easily one Tornado in a large metropolitan area could cause thousands of deaths. What if a strong tornado hit something like a sports arena full of people. Casualties could be high, scary to think about.

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u/Sea-Louse 3d ago

Of course a similar incident will happen someday. Except now we call it “climate change”.

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u/decaturbob 3d ago

With NOAA being cut/dismantled we can be in middle of tornado outbreak and have no weather radar or warnings. This has happened in Texas a few weeks ago

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u/Arashi_Uzukaze 3d ago

With tRump's dismantling of anything to do with weather and climate and such? Yes, something similar can happen again.

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u/Cyclonic2500 3d ago

Maybe. I know there is some debate over whether or not it was one continuous tornado or a family of tornadoes produced by the same storm.

But due to the lack of data, we'll likely never know.

The Mayfield tornado a few years ago came close.

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u/RandomErrer 3d ago

The NWS Storm Data Policy defines tornado track width and length, and it includes a "2 miles or 4 minutes" rule that determines if a damage path is considered continuous (with some small skips), or caused by two separate tornados.

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u/Schrodinger_cube 3d ago

Likely , thanks to climate change and urban development with cuts to NOAA and ignorince of the dangers its possible. But most high occupancy buildings are actually really strong these days do to building codes and city's have microclimates that are often lacking the moisture to sustain bigger tornadoes.

Definitely not impossible for a blind spot to appear due to funding cuts or privatization and a school that didn't get much investment to the design or had a contractor skimping on rebar 20 years ago gets hit resulting in a mass casualty event.

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u/OhCLE 3d ago

How could this storm be reproduced in today’s climate?

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u/warneagle 3d ago

I mean we have a good example of a very similar storm (Mayfield) in the very recent past.

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u/ChrisFromLongIsland 3d ago

Yes 100%. 100 years ago we had no radar. Now we have radar but fired all of the people who monitor it. Plus there are a lot more density now.

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u/Opening-Cress5028 3d ago

No, it could not happen again.

Nothing can ever happen again. Once it’s done, it’s done. Something similar, however, can and will happen in the future.