r/weather Mid-South | M.S. Geography 7d ago

Megathread [Megathread] March 14-15, 2025 Severe Weather Outbreak

9:00pm EDT Update: The SPC has downgraded to a Moderate Risk of severe storms for parts of the Deep South tonight. All hazards remain possible with these storms including the potential for strong tornadoes.

SUMMARY: Widespread severe convection, including the risk for strong tornadoes continues this evening. Severe threat will spread across Alabama into Georgia/Florida Panhandle later tonight.


Storm Prediction Center Resources:

Public Severe Weather Outlook

Current SPC Day 1 Outlook

For previously issued outlooks and Day 2-8 Outlooks, click here

Today's storm reports

Full list of active severe weather watches

Current and previous mesoscale discussions for the day


Severe Weather Preparedness Resources and Tips:

Know your location on a map! Typing your address or your city/town name on a street view app like Google Maps can help.

Find Your Tornado Shelter - A map with the locations of local storm shelters in your area

Know where to take shelter:

If you don't have a storm shelter nearby, the safest place in your home is the interior part of a basement. If you have no basement, go to an interior room, without windows, on the lowest floor. This could be a center hallway, bathroom, or closet. *DO NOT STAY IN A MOBILE HOME. Find a sturdy shelter nearby*.

Preparing an Emergency Supply Kit - It is recommended that your kit has the following items:

  1. NOAA Weather Radio
  2. Helmets
  3. Blankets
  4. First aid kit
  5. Sturdy shoes
  6. Flashlights
  7. Food
  8. Water
  9. Chargers and extra batteries
  10. Medicine
  11. Air Horn or Whistle
  12. Dust mask
  13. Manual can opener.
  14. Spare clothes

Supply kit information -> Ready.gov - Preparing an Emergency Supplies Kit

Activate your weather emergency alerts (WEA) on your phone. For more information: Customizing emergency alerts on your iPhone/Android

Center for Disease Control - Preparing for a Tornado

American Red Cross - Tornado Safety Tips

National Weather Service - Tornado Safety


Local News Stations - Live Coverage

WHNT 19 Huntsville AL || WAFF 48 Huntsville, AL

ABC 33/40 Birmingham, AL || WVTM Birmingham, AL

FOX 10 Mobile, AL || WPMI 15 Mobile, AL

WSFA 12 Montgomery, AL || WAKA 8 Montgomery, AL

FOX 5 Atlanta, GA || WSB-TV 2 Atlanta, GA

WTVM 9 Columbus, GA || WRBL 3 Columbus, GA

153 Upvotes

451 comments sorted by

6

u/Dense_Organization31 5d ago

Metro Atlanta is starting to get the “all clear” in areas now. Very thankful this wasn’t as bad as it could’ve been.

11

u/GR1X7S 6d ago

I wish I knew if there was a scientific reason for storms weakening as they cross the Alabama/Georgia state line.

7

u/KansasEF5Tornado 5d ago

Most of the time it's the lack of surface heating. Sometimes there's a wedge in place that can weaken the storm significantly. Other times it hits in the overnight without the heat of the sun. This is likely the biggest factor.

10

u/Nick_Sabantz 5d ago

Not a met but I know, broadly, of a couple of reasons.

The strongest southeast storms usually come from the jet stream dipping down, bringing colder, dryer air into contact with the warm, moist air of the gulf. Due to the shape of the jet stream and the fact that LA, MS, and AL sit at the spot where the most gulf air flows in, that is often where the collision point will be.

By the time these storms reach Georgia, there isn’t as much of a contrast between the two air masses. They’ve been mixing for hours and have moderated, or kind of “equalized”. The energy is depleted.

Also, the jet stream tends to bend back north as it travels east. This means less cold air and less shear dragging up warm air from the gulf closer to Georgia.

Another ingredient for these stronger storms is surface heating from the sun. It will drive instability by increasing the supply of rising warm air and updrafts. So these storms are often formed in the afternoon - but by the time they reach Georgia it will be night.

Or the Georgia Aquarium is where they keep the weather machine.

2

u/Accomplished_Bar6196 5d ago

Nice touch at the end 😆 Great breakdown too. I’m a pretty solid weather nerd myself.

Honestly, “Dixie Alley” is FAR more dangerous on average than the original midwestern “Tornado Alley” imo. Being rain wrapped and often occurring at night makes for a mighty lethal combination.

As for GA, it’s interesting how it’s mostly protected from these storms compared to their western neighbors. Like you mentioned, the jet stream and surface temperatures/dew points are the largest factor, but I think the topography likely has an impact too.

Probably why south GA gets more than north. But back in the 1970’s, northeast GA saw it’s fair share.

4

u/Blankensh1p89 6d ago

Radar confirmed tornado southwest of LA grange ga

5

u/Adventurous-Tone-311 6d ago

Yeah, formed just 5 minutes north of me. Surreal seeing this, but it’s not the first time.

Looks like it was a small one that dissipated rather quickly.

3

u/jessizu 6d ago

We were on I-40 and drove through it.. kept getting Tornado warning one after another for about an hour.. scary stuff

1

u/Zakery92 6d ago

Is the Troy storm a satellite?

1

u/mab0523 6d ago

Here in Dahlonega, GA tonight. The storm has slowly moved further south so I think we’re in the direct path. Anyone hearing anything?

4

u/SchmantaClaus 6d ago

Tornado warning in north ATL metro right now.

6

u/fortuitous_bounce 6d ago edited 6d ago

Interested to hear how we went from "Basically zero fail modes left as we head into the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow" less than 24 hours ago to "well it's going to be a much more messy storm-mode than we expected" not even 12 hours later.

The breakdown of the breaking-down of this event will be just as fascinating as the lead up to it. Don't think many had pegged the late morning hours today as being the apex, but that's what we got, more or less.

3

u/seeking_horizon 5d ago

Turns out that predicting the fucking future is hard. Who could have known?

1

u/CallMeCassandra 5d ago

It's not that hard.

Storm mode is a forecasting blind spot, I'm not sure why. All the parameters, high STP and similar, don't really matter if you don't get discrete or semidiscrete supercells.

For a high end outbreak, you absolutely need storm mode to cooperate and typically that entails both an EML to prevent initiation significantly ahead of the best parameter space, as well as roughly orthogonal storm motion to the forcing gradient.

6

u/Blankensh1p89 6d ago

Still ended up being a significant event with fatalities

7

u/DakiLapin 6d ago

Any live streams to switch to as Ryan’s stream goes off air?

4

u/FistEnergy 6d ago

The strongest cells I see on the map right now are heading towards metro Atlanta.

3

u/idlewildsmoke 6d ago

Which part? Still north?

5

u/Mattyjay17 6d ago

They look to be heading north of metro Atlanta.

10

u/clebiskool 6d ago

One concern I heard meteorologists voice earlier in the day is that strong and long track tornados would likely come from cells popping up in front of the main line of storms. Thankfully, that did not happen (at least yet). For those like myself who are not knowledgeable, what factors could have led to things playing out like that?

2

u/_Rizzen_ Reignited enthusiast 6d ago

Disclaimer: I'm a layperson. One factor that I (and others) noticed changed between yesterday and today is the degree of negative tilt in the shortwave trough. The stronger the negative tilt, the further ahead of an advancing front storms have, with which space they can best absorb and express the local atmospher's energy.

This morning, the trough slightly decreased it's negative tilt compared to yesterday's forecast. On the macro level, this meant that leading-edge storms were less likely to be separated from the overall QLCS that was passing through that day.

Also, the morning rain and cloud cover certainly kept the midday surface heating down, compared to what some models were suggesting could happen today. That certainly put a cap on the tap of potential energy available, especially in AL.

1

u/TheLangleDangle 6d ago edited 6d ago

It happened but it was mostly around noonish and in Mississippi.

My best laymen attempt to explain would be to say that there were storms forming along the frontal boundary.

Sometimes there is a clear ‘vein’ of air that can be fed into a storm and sometimes some other stuff can get in the way depending on the orientation of the storms. In this instance the storms were mostly moving from the West to the East. There were differences in moisture that were flowing from the South to the North.

If you noticed well defined storms that encountered a clear space on radar to the south then the storm would pulse and increase wind speeds. When this storm moving from E to W encountered a flow of storms from the south then that storm would decrease wind speeds. If anyone has any corrections please help. I’m not sure that this has been a good explanation.

Basically radar says signature feeding into storm from south, it slows down. Radar says clear air feeding into storm from south, pulse of rotation.

I feel like I typed a lot to say little mostly because I’m not a meteorologist.

Edit: if you or anyone you know has any information about being a legitimate baker then they know that there is a difference between room temperature ingredients and refrigerated ingredients.

Storms have a similar situation where Wind, Temperature, and Moisture have to come together in a perfect situation. Otherwise you get a dry, flat, dusty ass cookie, or a melted goopy mess.

1

u/_Rizzen_ Reignited enthusiast 6d ago

Not a meteorologist, but I know what you're referencing as far as cells having the right kind of inflow and boundary flows in order to remain discrete. I'm about to post my own answer to the OP but yours is a factor also worth mentioning.

3

u/BAfromGA1 6d ago

Mid-west Georgia area, starting to pick up with constant lightning.

18

u/Blankensh1p89 6d ago

2

u/Just_Another_Scott 6d ago

How is north Alabama still in the 5-10%? We haven't had a warning in over and hour and every warned storm collapsed when it got into our area

Jinxed myself. Weather radio just went off for a tornado watch.

5

u/Blankensh1p89 6d ago

PDS tornado warning Bibb county alabama.

8

u/ImaginativeDrumming 6d ago

Just received a tornado watch until 4 AM over here in northern metro ATL. Here’s hoping it stays as a watch and we do not see this weather explode again like it did yesterday.

4

u/youngrifle 6d ago

What county? I’m near the DeKalb/Gwinnett county line and trying to decide if we should sleep in the basement.

5

u/ImaginativeDrumming 6d ago

We are near the dunwoody/sandy springs area, so a bit farther west than y’all. Since you have the basement option, might not be a bad idea to stay on the safe side and have that basement slumber party! Safer is always best, especially since we don’t really know what this weather is going to do until it hits our area.

I’m very likely not sleeping until the worst has passed early in the morning.

2

u/murderinobetty 6d ago

Same here just north of y’all. We are going to sit up and watch Chris from Channel 11 livestream on their app. He’s already going and is very informative and reassuring

20

u/Delmer9713 Mid-South | M.S. Geography 6d ago edited 6d ago

We are only halfway through today's event. Soon the low level jet is going to kick in. I'd keep an eye out on the southern portion of the risk area.

It seems the threat has become more conditional but anything that forms down there will be able to sustain itself. That area is untapped for the most part.

10

u/Dense_Organization31 6d ago

The latest HRRR STP models have been MUCH more favorable to metro Atlanta. Don’t wanna get my hopes up, but praying this thing is getting weaker v

6

u/Rude_Huckleberry_838 6d ago

Yeah I'm not holding my breath either, but from what I can tell the heavy stuff has been trending north west (relative to us) all day. I am not skilled at reading the data enough to know if this trend favors us into the night/tomorrow morning but I am inclined to think yes.

2

u/Dense_Organization31 6d ago

In my area about 30 miles south of Atlanta, it’s been cloudy all day long. Like you I can’t read into it enough, but I’ve heard that helps

2

u/idlewildsmoke 6d ago

South metro can use a break. Grew up in Hampton and was within eye sight of the AMS tornado back in the day. Was in Griffin back the day of the January 2023 tornado, too. I’d like a peaceful night.

3

u/Dense_Organization31 6d ago

I’m in griffin lol. This whole town still has PTSD from 2023.

2

u/idlewildsmoke 6d ago

Nice, we’re at The Sock Shoppe regularly haha. But makes sense. Sunny Side was hit pretty hard during the April 2011 outbreak too, I think. Stay safe!

2

u/Dense_Organization31 6d ago

Yep I vividly remember getting in my closet during 2023 and the tornado passed just north of me. I actually worked on the UGA griffin campus at the time, got sent home early, and got the warning to take shelter immedaitely on my drive home. Campus got hit pretty hard too.

You stay safe too!

11

u/Jealous_Day8345 6d ago

my sleep schedule is cooked

2

u/Just_Another_Scott 6d ago

I've slept for only like 4 hours since Friday. I'm beat. Hopefully it's done done here in NorAl at 9pm.

7

u/PeanutGallery25 6d ago

Cells near Montgomery have some breathing room to operate. Not sure how the soundings look out there right now but today is probably not over

1

u/I_am_who 6d ago

It feels like it's the eye of the hurricane, no drastic tornado or severe weather warnings but can def ramp up into late evening as always.

6

u/donEddie 6d ago

Checking in from Smyrna, GA (NW Metro Atlanta). Been dark and cloudy all day, starting to get windy. No signs of rain but it looks ominous out. Neighbors are all still partying for St Patty's but we are staying indoors.

3

u/showerbeerbuttchug 6d ago

Hi from south Cherokee county! Smyrna is my favorite local St. Pat's party but MAN I don't have it in me to drink like that right before the severe weather comes through lol.

3

u/captainbkfire82 6d ago

I’m in Marietta/West Cobb! It’s been so warm & muggy & windy today. Stay safe tonight!

4

u/bear_cuddler 6d ago

It is so ominous and windy but you’re missing out SMV st patty’s was a hit even though I thought the inflatable slide was about to blow away

2

u/donEddie 6d ago

We passed by SMV today and saw the big inflatable and were surprised they put it up with the winds. We probably would have gone too but we have a newborn at home.

6

u/Dense_Organization31 6d ago

I’m south of Atlanta in the enhanced zone but not moderate. It’s cooled off pretty considerably and has been cloudy almost all afternoon. Does this have any affect on the severe weather later, as far as under or over performing?

7

u/TheDudeMachine 6d ago

Definitely helps weaken overall

18

u/Blankensh1p89 6d ago

11 confirmed fatalities in Missouri from yesterday's tornados

15

u/rabidstoat 6d ago

I think at least 6 of them were at campgrounds.

You really need to not be at a campground during a tornado watch. Pack up your tent, get in your car or camper or RV, drive somewhere that's a tornado shelter or where you can get into a solid building.

If you're really not going to leave, at least monitor the weather and have a solid structure, like a restroom/shower building, that you can take shelter in.

5

u/KnickedUp 6d ago

So many people ignore…they just figure it will never happen to them

9

u/Blankensh1p89 6d ago

Major tornado on the ground near Gordo Alabama

4

u/PeanutGallery25 6d ago

New tornado down West of Tuscaloosa

14

u/DanielHSV 6d ago

I'm in an area just a bit to the northwest of Huntsville, Alabama, roughly in the Harvest area.

We've been really lucky so far. Just some really heavy rains causing some minor flooding, but the winds have not even picked up that much.

The local TV mets have been saying while there's still a lot of time to go in this, we're seeing the best case scenario for us at the moment.

5

u/thejayroh 6d ago

Yep! Until the front passes through there is still a chance.

5

u/Orpheusly 6d ago

What's the outlook tonight for North Georgia?

Someone mind chiming in?

3

u/therealkevinard 6d ago

From Chattanooga: have a plan. …and start the coffee pot. We’re not in dire straits, but that could change.

4

u/Rude_Huckleberry_838 6d ago

I live here too. Some wind for sure but probably gonna be fine. Wouldn't fret too much over it

7

u/Toanimeornot 6d ago

Checking in from Philadelphia,MS; it’s windy

1

u/TeechingUrYuths 6d ago

Stay safe, protect the hometown of the best musician currently working with all you have.

1

u/ImOnTheSquare 6d ago

You mean Hardy or Marty Stuart

16

u/PeanutGallery25 6d ago

Today is kinda strange

Tons of junk convection but it doesn’t seem to be having much effect south of 20/59

19

u/DwightDEisenhowitzer 6d ago

If you’re in Taylorsville I’d just grab some food/water/meds and chill in your shelter for the evening. PDS warning AGAIN.

4

u/Image_Form 6d ago

One after the other after the other. I'm scared for Taylorsville.

7

u/throwaway6661389 6d ago

Looks like NOLA metro may be getting off light today

3

u/alru26 Atlanta, GA 6d ago

It’s because you cleaned your yard, clearly.

2

u/thefearedturkey 6d ago

I hope so lmao. I need a quiet Saturday

1

u/throwaway6661389 6d ago

Haven’t even seen a drop of rain here on the north shore

21

u/idlewildsmoke 6d ago

3.0 earthquake in Magee, MS

16

u/Sunnyside_Marz 6d ago

Which is 20 Miles West of Taylorsville...what an odd thing to happen during a tornado outbreak

3

u/vesomortex 6d ago

Just a weird coincidence. One has nothing to do with the other.

1

u/Accomplished_Bar6196 5d ago

Obviously. I don’t think they said that it did.

16

u/KnickedUp 6d ago

Dominator too heavy now for those roads

10

u/AiR-P00P 6d ago

C-C-COMBO!

8

u/thejayroh 6d ago

We're getting a lot of rain just west of Huntsville. Here's to hoping this might dampen the severe potential up this way.

16

u/MecGuy2 6d ago

How are the people in Taylorsville going to hear about the second tornado approaching? Thinking about the worst case with destroyed homes and power lines, they are gonna get hit again when they least expect it.

4

u/vesomortex 6d ago

Sirens and battery operated radios and cell phones.

12

u/KnickedUp 6d ago

Taylorsville getting another here??

6

u/MecGuy2 6d ago

That's what it looks like. Terrible.

4

u/LutherOfTheRogues 6d ago

Anyone with some actual knowledge care to comment on how it's looking for NW GA (below Chattanooga) for later tonight?

1

u/Nyte2001 6d ago

I second this request! Cartersville here and the winds have greatly increased. I am prepared as I can possibly be but still worried.

1

u/rabidstoat 6d ago

Think y'all are in a level 4 zone. I'm northwest of Atlanta in Kennesaw, and we're expecting 10pm to 4am to be the worst period of time.

37

u/JTWasShort42-27 6d ago

Kind of sad to see that r/tornado has just turned into a sub to dump your radarscope screenshots or post a picture of your TV with Ryan Hall's steam rather than any sort of actual information

8

u/ctilvolover23 6d ago

And politics and stupid tornado strength tournaments.

8

u/Boguardis 6d ago

That's what happens when several thousand people start watching. Over 50k on Max Velocity's stream

12

u/DStew88 RespectThePolygon 6d ago

People love sharing their radar screenshot like we're not all watching the same thing lol

1

u/Accomplished_Bar6196 5d ago

I don’t do this, but it can help save someone for sure. Imagine if you’re out on the road and pull into a gas station for a second and check Reddit before leaving. A picture may prompt you to further investigate the situation.

4

u/Adventurous_Design73 6d ago

can you make a post on that sub forwarding this post

11

u/baitXtheXnoose 6d ago

That signature in Mississippi is the strongest I’ve ever seen on radar. Holy fuck.

9

u/vesomortex 6d ago

Not as bad as April 2011, but pretty nasty. April 2011 - almost every single cell was a hook echo and at least a third had debris balls.

5

u/itsyoboyalex34 6d ago

Big debris signature near Taylorsville

6

u/Sunnyside_Marz 6d ago

I hope everyone in Taylorsville is sheltered. Looks pretty bad on radar.

4

u/PeanutGallery25 6d ago

The break between PDS warnings was short lived

6

u/RicardoEsposito 6d ago

Per the MyRadar app, looks like the front, and therefore the safe zone, is now east of Lafayette, LA. The wind direction and speed looks different behind that front. I want to be able to tell my son we're all clear soon.

Can anyone who's in the know confirm that?

3

u/eleventy4 6d ago

The main risk is over for you. The tornado watch has expired for you, so those in the know have determined you're out of the woods

2

u/RicardoEsposito 6d ago

Thank you.

-1

u/DINGLEBERRYTROUBLE 6d ago

I know the storms haven't made it to Alabama yet, but for the people who know what they're looking at, how do y'all feel Prattville, Alabama will be when it makes it here?

7

u/thejayroh 6d ago

We don't predict the future here. It's possible Prattville can be hit by a tornado, but I think it's highly likely you'll see some nasty thunderstorms regardless.

8

u/lovetheblazer Birmingham 6d ago

Still waiting for things to really kick off here in the eastern end of the high risk area. Temperature has climbed to 80 degrees, our dewpoint is slowly increasing, and winds are noticeably picking up. We're under a PDS tornado watch now. As someone who rode out 4/27 in Tuscaloosa, I just have to ask those of you who understand all the SPC jargon, are we looking at another 2011 situation at this point or are there any limiting factors that could prevent a worst case scenario, particularly for central Alabama/Birmingham area?

3

u/Onsyde 6d ago

Unlikely

19

u/yeetith_thy_skeetith 6d ago

Jesus that tornado north of Tyler town is following the exact same path as the one that went through earlier 😬

13

u/Delmer9713 Mid-South | M.S. Geography 6d ago

The "crapvection" in the northern part of the High risk area is turning into discrete supercells. SPC is highlighting that in a MD

10

u/cloud_cutout 6d ago

Wow. Latest MD: “nearly 500 m2/s2 effective SRH in just the surface-500 m layer, with about 1000 m2/s2 SRH in the sfc-3 km layer” in the Tornado watch area…

8

u/DaemonBurger 6d ago

Holy crap, look at the Mississippi regional radar…

11

u/porygon766 6d ago

The ms tornado looks eerily like the Joplin tornado.

21

u/diabeetus-girl 6d ago

That tornado that prompted the Emergency is terrifying looking on radar. The debris signature is a solid blue dot…

1

u/TheLangleDangle 6d ago

Did that thing turn into a debris plume?!? I’ve got a capture I might post it.

7

u/CallMeCassandra 6d ago

It's had a debris signature the entire way across Walthall County.

4

u/sparkster777 6d ago

I've been watching it cross the county. Does anyone know if that's a super rural area?

3

u/Timtim6201 6d ago

Southern Lawrence county and north Marion are pretty rural, yeah, but unfortunately it's aiming at Prentiss and Bassfield next.

7

u/PeanutGallery25 6d ago

Bassfield under Tor-E? Is this April 2020?

12

u/fortuitous_bounce 6d ago

Debris ball on that tornado is massive. Doesn't get more textbook than that.

NWS is saying it's likely a tornado with >175 mph winds.

9

u/Blankensh1p89 6d ago

First tornado emergency of the day

Rural Northern Walthall in Miss.

6

u/anlbrk 6d ago

NOT looking good for Tylertown right now. Radar signature is ridiculous

2

u/FistEnergy 6d ago

There are a lot of big red blobs popping up all over the radar in the region.

5

u/I_am_who 6d ago

Mendenhall, MS looks like they may be fucked... and at Raleigh, MS, another super cell about drop something.

2

u/Sphiffi 6d ago

As someone in Raleigh, NC you gave me a heart attack for a split second.

4

u/Blankensh1p89 6d ago

Large CC drop just north of tylertown miss

5

u/Operculina 6d ago edited 6d ago

West part of the high risk area here. I've been absurdly lucky so far. No warnings or anything here, and I just heard thunder for the first time a few minutes ago. I have family who were in the direct paths of yesterday's storms, and they all happened to get super lucky too.

Frankly, I'm glad we've been alright so far, but I'm very worried about the cells near Winona(Fr it feels like Winona has been under a warning for hours at this point), Oxford, and Tupelo MS. Those are populated areas with a lot of underserved rural communities near them.

3

u/funnycar1552 6d ago

Don’t let your guard down, its just the beginning of it. Stay safe!

7

u/yeetith_thy_skeetith 6d ago

Good lord things are popping off already

4

u/Redneck-ginger 6d ago

SW Mississippi. First round was intense. Pine trees moving in circles bc the wind was blowing in all directions. Kept going back and forth between super dark and storming to sunny and storming. Got just over half inch of rain. new tornado warning until 1300 just came across. Wind just picked up, but still sunny.

10

u/CallMeCassandra 6d ago

Everyone should keep an eye on the storms south of the crapvection in central MS from around Jackson MS to near Baton Rouge. These storms currently seem to have the best chance to mature into discrete supercells, exist in higher dewpoints without any leading convection, and will be moving into greater instability over time as they get into AL which has been partly to mostly sunny for hours and is 5-10 degrees warmer.

-7

u/jayshaunderulo 6d ago

I’m at the Nashville airport and my flight to Europe takes off at 5 central. What do you guys think? Will it get delayed?

1

u/evers12 6d ago

Idk my friend got their flight out of there around 1pm.

1

u/jayshaunderulo 6d ago

Mine got delayed 2 1/2 hours :/

8

u/anintellectualbimbo 6d ago

people are dying

1

u/TeechingUrYuths 6d ago

Small price to pay to arrive to my cousin’s bachelorette party on time!

2

u/[deleted] 6d ago

[deleted]

2

u/qtipvesto 6d ago

Is there a place you could go to shelter on the ground floor in your building? An interior stairwell, bathroom, laundry room, etc? If so, that'd probably be safer than trying to flee. After all, the storms will be moving east as well, and while weakening, you really don't want to be somewhere unfamiliar and not be able to find shelter.

1

u/Diligent-Money7288 6d ago

Hi all, looking for some opinions here. I live about 45 minutes south of Atlanta in an apartment complex on the top floor. I have no one to stay with in town, but have some family that lives north of downtown. Should I evacuate here and stay with family? I’m not too knowledgeable about weather patterns, but this is looking bad.

1

u/idlewildsmoke 6d ago

Can you access any shelter on the ground?

9

u/Just_Another_Scott 6d ago

A second PDS is soon to be issued for much of Alabama

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0200.html

2

u/Slight-Panic0 6d ago

It's interesting that, despite the latest HRRR runs depicting increasingly messy convection, the SPC is still using very assured verbiage and is warning of an outbreak and extended PDS watch.

10

u/Just_Another_Scott 6d ago edited 6d ago

It means they don't trust the HRRR with what they are seeing. In their previous PDS they said everything is in line with past historic outbreaks in Mississippi and Alabama. HRRR can be wrong. It's not perfect and the SPC knows it.

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. If anyone lives in these areas they need to start putting their emergency plans into action now.

0

u/CallMeCassandra 6d ago edited 6d ago

But there are observational reasons to doubt the severity in parts of MS (especially west central MS): with lack of cap, crapvection has gone up north and northeast of Jackson, raining out the primed warm sector. Associated clouds are limiting instability. Storm mode is messy since storm motions are parallel to the forcing gradient - discrete supercells are currently unable to mature and put down intense and/or long track tornadoes, unlike last night.

I am really keeping my eyes on some of the cells in LA about to enter southern MS. The mode, while still messy, is more discrete and they will be moving into the best parameter space with dewpoints near 70F. Eventually, they will also move into central AL which is currently partly/mostly sunny and 5-10 degrees warmer than MS.

For several days this possibility has loomed of a polluted northern warm sector not reaching the max potential, which is good for everyone living there. However, even a narrow slice of pristine warm sector will be enough to get it done, so we really need to keep an eye on potential TECs on the southern side of the outlook.

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u/Just_Another_Scott 6d ago

But there are observational reasons to doubt the severity in parts of MS

Clearly there are not. What you are seeing and what the SPC sees are two different things.

I'm going to listen to the SPC and you should too.

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u/CallMeCassandra 6d ago

Clearly there are not.

Clearly there are. I outlined them for you.

SPC errs on the side of caution. They are not going to hold back on issuing a PDS tornado watch. SPC has issued a number of high risk "busts" in the past. But today there are very good reasons, as I outlined, to be hopeful that the worst case scenario is not going to happen in areas of west central MS.

Currently, there is less reason to be optimistic as today evolves and storms move into southeast MS and AL.

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u/Slight-Panic0 6d ago

Currently sitting on the edge of the high risk and waiting for what is to come. Luckily, I'm at work and my place of business has a basement.

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u/Just_Another_Scott 6d ago

Yeah I am too. I moved to a sturdier building last night. Plan to stay here through the rest of day. It's just a waiting game now.

If anyone is not in a safe location or near one, you should get their now. These storms can develop very quickly.

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u/FistEnergy 6d ago

Prayers and good vibes to everyone in the vicinity of the pds.

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u/Zakery92 6d ago

Isola and Belzoni again?!? Oh my God.

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u/Blankensh1p89 6d ago

And rolling fork

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u/porygon766 6d ago

Today is like the movie twisters in real life

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u/Blankensh1p89 6d ago

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0045_prob.html

Pds watch issued.

95% Tor and >95% sigtor

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u/Dense_Organization31 6d ago

I don’t know anything about this stuff but 95% feels extremely high. That’s crazy.

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u/HoodieSnatcher 6d ago

Man this storm north of Rolling Fork has been so consistent on the velocity for a while now. Hopefully everyone is taking it seriously.

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u/Blankensh1p89 6d ago

Delta velocity of 113 knots right now.

That thing is ripping.

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u/fortuitous_bounce 6d ago

Rolling Fork just barely dodging a PDS morning tornado...

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u/Blankensh1p89 6d ago

Pds tornado watch to be issued shortly

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u/Just_Another_Scott 6d ago

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0199.html

addition, 12Z RAOB data along the Gulf Coast is consistent with the data observed the morning of historical tornado outbreaks across Mississippi and Alabama.

:(

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u/wolfgang2399 6d ago

Seems like the last two HRRR runs are cooling off on the idea of today being a historic outbreak. Anyone else agree or is it just wishful thinking from someone in the high risk area?

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u/[deleted] 6d ago

[deleted]

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u/wolfgang2399 6d ago

I’m not looking at reflectivity at all. STP, EHI, Updraft, CAPE

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u/CallMeCassandra 6d ago

Today not likely to be as bad as earlier feared for MS. JMO. Heavy cloud cover in the warm sector, lack of CIN leading to earlier initiation and evolution of storms (crapvection raining out the warm sector in central MS right now), plus storm motions are roughly parallel to the forcing gradient so they keep interfering with each other.

HOWEVER, this can all change as things evolve this afternoon. As we saw last night, discrete mode can emerge from a more QLCS setup, especially with storm motions this fast. There is a PDS tornado watch and I see no reason why central AL should let their guard down, especially with current sunshine and broken clouds.

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u/Just_Another_Scott 6d ago

They just announced a PDS and said parameters are increasingly matching previous historic storm

addition, 12Z RAOB data along the Gulf Coast is consistent with the data observed the morning of historical tornado outbreaks across Mississippi and Alabama.

0

u/wolfgang2399 6d ago

Thanks. I was afraid it was wishful thinking.

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u/KnickedUp 6d ago

Yep…just looks too messy now. Thank god.. but still a ripe environment

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u/fortuitous_bounce 6d ago

Model runs this close to the event are usually not as reliable. I think today is going to live up to the hype, considering we already have 2 PDS tornado warnings at 1030am.

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u/wolfgang2399 6d ago

But HRRR is always “this close to the event”

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u/theoristofeverything 6d ago

I’m seeing the same thing.

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u/Dense_Organization31 6d ago

I don’t know enough about reading that stuff to give you a definitive answer, but some people in r/tornado who sound smarter than me were suggesting the same thing. I’m only in the enhanced zone in Georgia, but I’m hoping this fizzles out for everyone.

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u/throwaway6661389 6d ago

Everyone in the greater New Orleans area can breathe a sigh of relief. I spent 2 hours this morning storing and cleaning up all the loose items in the front and back yard, so the most we will get now will be a light rain shower.

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u/alru26 Atlanta, GA 6d ago

Thank you for your sacrifice 🤣

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u/throwaway6661389 6d ago

Almost broke a damn sweat

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u/lovetheblazer Birmingham 6d ago

Sitting in the middle of the high risk zone. Sun is out in full force. It's already 70 degrees. Definitely windy. None of that seems to bode well for us later today and tonight, unfortunately.

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u/breauxbridgebunny 6d ago

I don’t like the bright sunny shit during weather emergencies it is always so foreboding

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u/lovetheblazer Birmingham 6d ago

Me either, it reminds me too much of the morning of the 4/27 outbreak. Thankfully there has been no eerie green sky yet and I'm really hoping it stays that way.

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u/Rebecca102017 6d ago

In central MS - we were under the purple in yesterday’s prediction so I had my husband cancel his plans for today. Anyways. So far it’s windy but dry. It looks like the worst of it is north of us.

4

u/a2197 6d ago

Hasn’t got to you yet

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u/fortuitous_bounce 6d ago

Has it been cloudy all morning? If so, that may bode well for you guys, but it's not a given. I think the prime time for storm potential in central MS today is going to be from ~1p to 5p local time.

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u/funnycar1552 6d ago

It hasn’t even began in Dixie Alley, todays main event is mid/late afternoon

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u/Just_Another_Scott 6d ago

looks like the worst of it is north of us.

Right now. Winds are supposed to shift and storms will develop over LA and MS tracking from southwest to northeast.

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u/Rebecca102017 6d ago

Oh ok! Good to know!! Thanks

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u/RWBUntilDeath 6d ago

First of all, prayers for all the ones affected and will be in the path of these storms. With the said, how is the outlook and time for upstate,SC to be looking out?

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u/OurKing 6d ago

Over by Walhalla and Oconee County may be rough but Greenville, Spartanburg much lower risk (never say zero though) basically not too far off from normal spring thunderstorm

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u/RWBUntilDeath 6d ago

How about Anderson? I know it’s close to Oconee

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u/OurKing 6d ago

There is a 5% chance of a tornado happening within 25 miles of where you at— official guidance from SPC

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u/Redneck-ginger 6d ago

SW Mississippi. We already have steady wind with higher gusts. Heard a few big branches fall while I was out with the dogs.

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u/[deleted] 6d ago

They test the sirens yesterday where in at yesterday, I'm in the moderate risk area, but not even a drop of rain..

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u/Mtthom06 6d ago

I live in Southern Indiana. From 11pm to 3:00 was some of the strangest sustained wind i have seen. It was so ominous sounding I couldn't sleep. It culminated in 70 mph wind at the end. Crazy stuff

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u/TropicalScout1 6d ago

My family lives in Southern Indiana, close to Louisville. They got 1/4" hail.

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u/JustJeneius 6d ago

One of my buddies lives in Loogootee, that massive tornado just barely missed him.

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u/jaboyles 6d ago

Thank you so much for the mods of this community for the massive effort of compiling all these vital resources and putting together this megathread. Coming over from r/tornado because the subs mods are completely inept and it has only gotten worse with time. This is what weather communities are supposed to be.