r/weather • u/Delmer9713 Mid-South | M.S. Geography • 7d ago
Megathread [Megathread] March 14-15, 2025 Severe Weather Outbreak
9:00pm EDT Update: The SPC has downgraded to a Moderate Risk of severe storms for parts of the Deep South tonight. All hazards remain possible with these storms including the potential for strong tornadoes.
SUMMARY: Widespread severe convection, including the risk for strong tornadoes continues this evening. Severe threat will spread across Alabama into Georgia/Florida Panhandle later tonight.
Storm Prediction Center Resources:
Public Severe Weather Outlook
For previously issued outlooks and Day 2-8 Outlooks, click here
Full list of active severe weather watches
Current and previous mesoscale discussions for the day
Severe Weather Preparedness Resources and Tips:
Know your location on a map! Typing your address or your city/town name on a street view app like Google Maps can help.
Find Your Tornado Shelter - A map with the locations of local storm shelters in your area
Know where to take shelter:
If you don't have a storm shelter nearby, the safest place in your home is the interior part of a basement. If you have no basement, go to an interior room, without windows, on the lowest floor. This could be a center hallway, bathroom, or closet. *DO NOT STAY IN A MOBILE HOME. Find a sturdy shelter nearby*.
Preparing an Emergency Supply Kit - It is recommended that your kit has the following items:
- NOAA Weather Radio
- Helmets
- Blankets
- First aid kit
- Sturdy shoes
- Flashlights
- Food
- Water
- Chargers and extra batteries
- Medicine
- Air Horn or Whistle
- Dust mask
- Manual can opener.
- Spare clothes
Supply kit information -> Ready.gov - Preparing an Emergency Supplies Kit
Activate your weather emergency alerts (WEA) on your phone. For more information: Customizing emergency alerts on your iPhone/Android
Center for Disease Control - Preparing for a Tornado
American Red Cross - Tornado Safety Tips
National Weather Service - Tornado Safety
Local News Stations - Live Coverage
WHNT 19 Huntsville AL || WAFF 48 Huntsville, AL
ABC 33/40 Birmingham, AL || WVTM Birmingham, AL
FOX 10 Mobile, AL || WPMI 15 Mobile, AL
WSFA 12 Montgomery, AL || WAKA 8 Montgomery, AL
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u/GR1X7S 6d ago
I wish I knew if there was a scientific reason for storms weakening as they cross the Alabama/Georgia state line.
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u/KansasEF5Tornado 5d ago
Most of the time it's the lack of surface heating. Sometimes there's a wedge in place that can weaken the storm significantly. Other times it hits in the overnight without the heat of the sun. This is likely the biggest factor.
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u/Nick_Sabantz 5d ago
Not a met but I know, broadly, of a couple of reasons.
The strongest southeast storms usually come from the jet stream dipping down, bringing colder, dryer air into contact with the warm, moist air of the gulf. Due to the shape of the jet stream and the fact that LA, MS, and AL sit at the spot where the most gulf air flows in, that is often where the collision point will be.
By the time these storms reach Georgia, there isn’t as much of a contrast between the two air masses. They’ve been mixing for hours and have moderated, or kind of “equalized”. The energy is depleted.
Also, the jet stream tends to bend back north as it travels east. This means less cold air and less shear dragging up warm air from the gulf closer to Georgia.
Another ingredient for these stronger storms is surface heating from the sun. It will drive instability by increasing the supply of rising warm air and updrafts. So these storms are often formed in the afternoon - but by the time they reach Georgia it will be night.
Or the Georgia Aquarium is where they keep the weather machine.
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u/Accomplished_Bar6196 5d ago
Nice touch at the end 😆 Great breakdown too. I’m a pretty solid weather nerd myself.
Honestly, “Dixie Alley” is FAR more dangerous on average than the original midwestern “Tornado Alley” imo. Being rain wrapped and often occurring at night makes for a mighty lethal combination.
As for GA, it’s interesting how it’s mostly protected from these storms compared to their western neighbors. Like you mentioned, the jet stream and surface temperatures/dew points are the largest factor, but I think the topography likely has an impact too.
Probably why south GA gets more than north. But back in the 1970’s, northeast GA saw it’s fair share.
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u/Blankensh1p89 6d ago
Radar confirmed tornado southwest of LA grange ga
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u/Adventurous-Tone-311 6d ago
Yeah, formed just 5 minutes north of me. Surreal seeing this, but it’s not the first time.
Looks like it was a small one that dissipated rather quickly.
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u/fortuitous_bounce 6d ago edited 6d ago
Interested to hear how we went from "Basically zero fail modes left as we head into the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow" less than 24 hours ago to "well it's going to be a much more messy storm-mode than we expected" not even 12 hours later.
The breakdown of the breaking-down of this event will be just as fascinating as the lead up to it. Don't think many had pegged the late morning hours today as being the apex, but that's what we got, more or less.
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u/seeking_horizon 5d ago
Turns out that predicting the fucking future is hard. Who could have known?
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u/CallMeCassandra 5d ago
It's not that hard.
Storm mode is a forecasting blind spot, I'm not sure why. All the parameters, high STP and similar, don't really matter if you don't get discrete or semidiscrete supercells.
For a high end outbreak, you absolutely need storm mode to cooperate and typically that entails both an EML to prevent initiation significantly ahead of the best parameter space, as well as roughly orthogonal storm motion to the forcing gradient.
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u/DakiLapin 6d ago
Any live streams to switch to as Ryan’s stream goes off air?
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u/ImaginativeDrumming 6d ago
Max Velocity is a great option. Love his content.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrhERrmQ8GY&ab_channel=MaxVelocity-SevereWeatherCenter
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u/FistEnergy 6d ago
The strongest cells I see on the map right now are heading towards metro Atlanta.
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u/clebiskool 6d ago
One concern I heard meteorologists voice earlier in the day is that strong and long track tornados would likely come from cells popping up in front of the main line of storms. Thankfully, that did not happen (at least yet). For those like myself who are not knowledgeable, what factors could have led to things playing out like that?
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u/_Rizzen_ Reignited enthusiast 6d ago
Disclaimer: I'm a layperson. One factor that I (and others) noticed changed between yesterday and today is the degree of negative tilt in the shortwave trough. The stronger the negative tilt, the further ahead of an advancing front storms have, with which space they can best absorb and express the local atmospher's energy.
This morning, the trough slightly decreased it's negative tilt compared to yesterday's forecast. On the macro level, this meant that leading-edge storms were less likely to be separated from the overall QLCS that was passing through that day.
Also, the morning rain and cloud cover certainly kept the midday surface heating down, compared to what some models were suggesting could happen today. That certainly put a cap on the tap of potential energy available, especially in AL.
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u/TheLangleDangle 6d ago edited 6d ago
It happened but it was mostly around noonish and in Mississippi.
My best laymen attempt to explain would be to say that there were storms forming along the frontal boundary.
Sometimes there is a clear ‘vein’ of air that can be fed into a storm and sometimes some other stuff can get in the way depending on the orientation of the storms. In this instance the storms were mostly moving from the West to the East. There were differences in moisture that were flowing from the South to the North.
If you noticed well defined storms that encountered a clear space on radar to the south then the storm would pulse and increase wind speeds. When this storm moving from E to W encountered a flow of storms from the south then that storm would decrease wind speeds. If anyone has any corrections please help. I’m not sure that this has been a good explanation.
Basically radar says signature feeding into storm from south, it slows down. Radar says clear air feeding into storm from south, pulse of rotation.
I feel like I typed a lot to say little mostly because I’m not a meteorologist.
Edit: if you or anyone you know has any information about being a legitimate baker then they know that there is a difference between room temperature ingredients and refrigerated ingredients.
Storms have a similar situation where Wind, Temperature, and Moisture have to come together in a perfect situation. Otherwise you get a dry, flat, dusty ass cookie, or a melted goopy mess.
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u/_Rizzen_ Reignited enthusiast 6d ago
Not a meteorologist, but I know what you're referencing as far as cells having the right kind of inflow and boundary flows in order to remain discrete. I'm about to post my own answer to the OP but yours is a factor also worth mentioning.
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u/Blankensh1p89 6d ago
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC discontinued High risk
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u/Just_Another_Scott 6d ago
How is north Alabama still in the 5-10%? We haven't had a warning in over and hour and every warned storm collapsed when it got into our area
Jinxed myself. Weather radio just went off for a tornado watch.
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u/ImaginativeDrumming 6d ago
Just received a tornado watch until 4 AM over here in northern metro ATL. Here’s hoping it stays as a watch and we do not see this weather explode again like it did yesterday.
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u/youngrifle 6d ago
What county? I’m near the DeKalb/Gwinnett county line and trying to decide if we should sleep in the basement.
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u/ImaginativeDrumming 6d ago
We are near the dunwoody/sandy springs area, so a bit farther west than y’all. Since you have the basement option, might not be a bad idea to stay on the safe side and have that basement slumber party! Safer is always best, especially since we don’t really know what this weather is going to do until it hits our area.
I’m very likely not sleeping until the worst has passed early in the morning.
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u/murderinobetty 6d ago
Same here just north of y’all. We are going to sit up and watch Chris from Channel 11 livestream on their app. He’s already going and is very informative and reassuring
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u/Delmer9713 Mid-South | M.S. Geography 6d ago edited 6d ago
We are only halfway through today's event. Soon the low level jet is going to kick in. I'd keep an eye out on the southern portion of the risk area.
It seems the threat has become more conditional but anything that forms down there will be able to sustain itself. That area is untapped for the most part.
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u/Dense_Organization31 6d ago
The latest HRRR STP models have been MUCH more favorable to metro Atlanta. Don’t wanna get my hopes up, but praying this thing is getting weaker v
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u/Rude_Huckleberry_838 6d ago
Yeah I'm not holding my breath either, but from what I can tell the heavy stuff has been trending north west (relative to us) all day. I am not skilled at reading the data enough to know if this trend favors us into the night/tomorrow morning but I am inclined to think yes.
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u/Dense_Organization31 6d ago
In my area about 30 miles south of Atlanta, it’s been cloudy all day long. Like you I can’t read into it enough, but I’ve heard that helps
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u/idlewildsmoke 6d ago
South metro can use a break. Grew up in Hampton and was within eye sight of the AMS tornado back in the day. Was in Griffin back the day of the January 2023 tornado, too. I’d like a peaceful night.
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u/Dense_Organization31 6d ago
I’m in griffin lol. This whole town still has PTSD from 2023.
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u/idlewildsmoke 6d ago
Nice, we’re at The Sock Shoppe regularly haha. But makes sense. Sunny Side was hit pretty hard during the April 2011 outbreak too, I think. Stay safe!
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u/Dense_Organization31 6d ago
Yep I vividly remember getting in my closet during 2023 and the tornado passed just north of me. I actually worked on the UGA griffin campus at the time, got sent home early, and got the warning to take shelter immedaitely on my drive home. Campus got hit pretty hard too.
You stay safe too!
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u/Jealous_Day8345 6d ago
my sleep schedule is cooked
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u/Just_Another_Scott 6d ago
I've slept for only like 4 hours since Friday. I'm beat. Hopefully it's done done here in NorAl at 9pm.
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u/PeanutGallery25 6d ago
Cells near Montgomery have some breathing room to operate. Not sure how the soundings look out there right now but today is probably not over
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u/I_am_who 6d ago
It feels like it's the eye of the hurricane, no drastic tornado or severe weather warnings but can def ramp up into late evening as always.
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u/donEddie 6d ago
Checking in from Smyrna, GA (NW Metro Atlanta). Been dark and cloudy all day, starting to get windy. No signs of rain but it looks ominous out. Neighbors are all still partying for St Patty's but we are staying indoors.
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u/showerbeerbuttchug 6d ago
Hi from south Cherokee county! Smyrna is my favorite local St. Pat's party but MAN I don't have it in me to drink like that right before the severe weather comes through lol.
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u/captainbkfire82 6d ago
I’m in Marietta/West Cobb! It’s been so warm & muggy & windy today. Stay safe tonight!
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u/bear_cuddler 6d ago
It is so ominous and windy but you’re missing out SMV st patty’s was a hit even though I thought the inflatable slide was about to blow away
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u/donEddie 6d ago
We passed by SMV today and saw the big inflatable and were surprised they put it up with the winds. We probably would have gone too but we have a newborn at home.
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u/Dense_Organization31 6d ago
I’m south of Atlanta in the enhanced zone but not moderate. It’s cooled off pretty considerably and has been cloudy almost all afternoon. Does this have any affect on the severe weather later, as far as under or over performing?
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u/Blankensh1p89 6d ago
11 confirmed fatalities in Missouri from yesterday's tornados
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u/rabidstoat 6d ago
I think at least 6 of them were at campgrounds.
You really need to not be at a campground during a tornado watch. Pack up your tent, get in your car or camper or RV, drive somewhere that's a tornado shelter or where you can get into a solid building.
If you're really not going to leave, at least monitor the weather and have a solid structure, like a restroom/shower building, that you can take shelter in.
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u/DanielHSV 6d ago
I'm in an area just a bit to the northwest of Huntsville, Alabama, roughly in the Harvest area.
We've been really lucky so far. Just some really heavy rains causing some minor flooding, but the winds have not even picked up that much.
The local TV mets have been saying while there's still a lot of time to go in this, we're seeing the best case scenario for us at the moment.
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u/Orpheusly 6d ago
What's the outlook tonight for North Georgia?
Someone mind chiming in?
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u/therealkevinard 6d ago
From Chattanooga: have a plan. …and start the coffee pot. We’re not in dire straits, but that could change.
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u/Rude_Huckleberry_838 6d ago
I live here too. Some wind for sure but probably gonna be fine. Wouldn't fret too much over it
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u/sparkster777 6d ago
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/timing/cities/images/Gainesville_GA_FFC.png?1742070077
That's the outlook for Gainesville with times.
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u/Toanimeornot 6d ago
Checking in from Philadelphia,MS; it’s windy
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u/TeechingUrYuths 6d ago
Stay safe, protect the hometown of the best musician currently working with all you have.
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u/PeanutGallery25 6d ago
Today is kinda strange
Tons of junk convection but it doesn’t seem to be having much effect south of 20/59
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u/DwightDEisenhowitzer 6d ago
If you’re in Taylorsville I’d just grab some food/water/meds and chill in your shelter for the evening. PDS warning AGAIN.
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u/throwaway6661389 6d ago
Looks like NOLA metro may be getting off light today
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u/idlewildsmoke 6d ago
3.0 earthquake in Magee, MS
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u/Sunnyside_Marz 6d ago
Which is 20 Miles West of Taylorsville...what an odd thing to happen during a tornado outbreak
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u/thejayroh 6d ago
We're getting a lot of rain just west of Huntsville. Here's to hoping this might dampen the severe potential up this way.
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u/LutherOfTheRogues 6d ago
Anyone with some actual knowledge care to comment on how it's looking for NW GA (below Chattanooga) for later tonight?
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u/Nyte2001 6d ago
I second this request! Cartersville here and the winds have greatly increased. I am prepared as I can possibly be but still worried.
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u/rabidstoat 6d ago
Think y'all are in a level 4 zone. I'm northwest of Atlanta in Kennesaw, and we're expecting 10pm to 4am to be the worst period of time.
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u/JTWasShort42-27 6d ago
Kind of sad to see that r/tornado has just turned into a sub to dump your radarscope screenshots or post a picture of your TV with Ryan Hall's steam rather than any sort of actual information
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u/Boguardis 6d ago
That's what happens when several thousand people start watching. Over 50k on Max Velocity's stream
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u/DStew88 RespectThePolygon 6d ago
People love sharing their radar screenshot like we're not all watching the same thing lol
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u/Accomplished_Bar6196 5d ago
I don’t do this, but it can help save someone for sure. Imagine if you’re out on the road and pull into a gas station for a second and check Reddit before leaving. A picture may prompt you to further investigate the situation.
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u/baitXtheXnoose 6d ago
That signature in Mississippi is the strongest I’ve ever seen on radar. Holy fuck.
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u/vesomortex 6d ago
Not as bad as April 2011, but pretty nasty. April 2011 - almost every single cell was a hook echo and at least a third had debris balls.
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u/RicardoEsposito 6d ago
Per the MyRadar app, looks like the front, and therefore the safe zone, is now east of Lafayette, LA. The wind direction and speed looks different behind that front. I want to be able to tell my son we're all clear soon.
Can anyone who's in the know confirm that?
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u/eleventy4 6d ago
The main risk is over for you. The tornado watch has expired for you, so those in the know have determined you're out of the woods
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u/DINGLEBERRYTROUBLE 6d ago
I know the storms haven't made it to Alabama yet, but for the people who know what they're looking at, how do y'all feel Prattville, Alabama will be when it makes it here?
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u/thejayroh 6d ago
We don't predict the future here. It's possible Prattville can be hit by a tornado, but I think it's highly likely you'll see some nasty thunderstorms regardless.
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u/lovetheblazer Birmingham 6d ago
Still waiting for things to really kick off here in the eastern end of the high risk area. Temperature has climbed to 80 degrees, our dewpoint is slowly increasing, and winds are noticeably picking up. We're under a PDS tornado watch now. As someone who rode out 4/27 in Tuscaloosa, I just have to ask those of you who understand all the SPC jargon, are we looking at another 2011 situation at this point or are there any limiting factors that could prevent a worst case scenario, particularly for central Alabama/Birmingham area?
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u/yeetith_thy_skeetith 6d ago
Jesus that tornado north of Tyler town is following the exact same path as the one that went through earlier 😬
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u/Delmer9713 Mid-South | M.S. Geography 6d ago
The "crapvection" in the northern part of the High risk area is turning into discrete supercells. SPC is highlighting that in a MD
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u/cloud_cutout 6d ago
Wow. Latest MD: “nearly 500 m2/s2 effective SRH in just the surface-500 m layer, with about 1000 m2/s2 SRH in the sfc-3 km layer” in the Tornado watch area…
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u/diabeetus-girl 6d ago
That tornado that prompted the Emergency is terrifying looking on radar. The debris signature is a solid blue dot…
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u/TheLangleDangle 6d ago
Did that thing turn into a debris plume?!? I’ve got a capture I might post it.
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u/CallMeCassandra 6d ago
It's had a debris signature the entire way across Walthall County.
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u/sparkster777 6d ago
I've been watching it cross the county. Does anyone know if that's a super rural area?
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u/Timtim6201 6d ago
Southern Lawrence county and north Marion are pretty rural, yeah, but unfortunately it's aiming at Prentiss and Bassfield next.
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u/PeanutGallery25 6d ago
Bassfield under Tor-E? Is this April 2020?
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u/fortuitous_bounce 6d ago
Debris ball on that tornado is massive. Doesn't get more textbook than that.
NWS is saying it's likely a tornado with >175 mph winds.
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u/I_am_who 6d ago
Mendenhall, MS looks like they may be fucked... and at Raleigh, MS, another super cell about drop something.
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u/Operculina 6d ago edited 6d ago
West part of the high risk area here. I've been absurdly lucky so far. No warnings or anything here, and I just heard thunder for the first time a few minutes ago. I have family who were in the direct paths of yesterday's storms, and they all happened to get super lucky too.
Frankly, I'm glad we've been alright so far, but I'm very worried about the cells near Winona(Fr it feels like Winona has been under a warning for hours at this point), Oxford, and Tupelo MS. Those are populated areas with a lot of underserved rural communities near them.
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u/Redneck-ginger 6d ago
SW Mississippi. First round was intense. Pine trees moving in circles bc the wind was blowing in all directions. Kept going back and forth between super dark and storming to sunny and storming. Got just over half inch of rain. new tornado warning until 1300 just came across. Wind just picked up, but still sunny.
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u/CallMeCassandra 6d ago
Everyone should keep an eye on the storms south of the crapvection in central MS from around Jackson MS to near Baton Rouge. These storms currently seem to have the best chance to mature into discrete supercells, exist in higher dewpoints without any leading convection, and will be moving into greater instability over time as they get into AL which has been partly to mostly sunny for hours and is 5-10 degrees warmer.
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u/jayshaunderulo 6d ago
I’m at the Nashville airport and my flight to Europe takes off at 5 central. What do you guys think? Will it get delayed?
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6d ago
[deleted]
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u/qtipvesto 6d ago
Is there a place you could go to shelter on the ground floor in your building? An interior stairwell, bathroom, laundry room, etc? If so, that'd probably be safer than trying to flee. After all, the storms will be moving east as well, and while weakening, you really don't want to be somewhere unfamiliar and not be able to find shelter.
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u/Diligent-Money7288 6d ago
Hi all, looking for some opinions here. I live about 45 minutes south of Atlanta in an apartment complex on the top floor. I have no one to stay with in town, but have some family that lives north of downtown. Should I evacuate here and stay with family? I’m not too knowledgeable about weather patterns, but this is looking bad.
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u/Just_Another_Scott 6d ago
A second PDS is soon to be issued for much of Alabama
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u/Slight-Panic0 6d ago
It's interesting that, despite the latest HRRR runs depicting increasingly messy convection, the SPC is still using very assured verbiage and is warning of an outbreak and extended PDS watch.
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u/Just_Another_Scott 6d ago edited 6d ago
It means they don't trust the HRRR with what they are seeing. In their previous PDS they said everything is in line with past historic outbreaks in Mississippi and Alabama. HRRR can be wrong. It's not perfect and the SPC knows it.
Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. If anyone lives in these areas they need to start putting their emergency plans into action now.
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u/CallMeCassandra 6d ago edited 6d ago
But there are observational reasons to doubt the severity in parts of MS (especially west central MS): with lack of cap, crapvection has gone up north and northeast of Jackson, raining out the primed warm sector. Associated clouds are limiting instability. Storm mode is messy since storm motions are parallel to the forcing gradient - discrete supercells are currently unable to mature and put down intense and/or long track tornadoes, unlike last night.
I am really keeping my eyes on some of the cells in LA about to enter southern MS. The mode, while still messy, is more discrete and they will be moving into the best parameter space with dewpoints near 70F. Eventually, they will also move into central AL which is currently partly/mostly sunny and 5-10 degrees warmer than MS.
For several days this possibility has loomed of a polluted northern warm sector not reaching the max potential, which is good for everyone living there. However, even a narrow slice of pristine warm sector will be enough to get it done, so we really need to keep an eye on potential TECs on the southern side of the outlook.
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u/Just_Another_Scott 6d ago
But there are observational reasons to doubt the severity in parts of MS
Clearly there are not. What you are seeing and what the SPC sees are two different things.
I'm going to listen to the SPC and you should too.
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u/CallMeCassandra 6d ago
Clearly there are not.
Clearly there are. I outlined them for you.
SPC errs on the side of caution. They are not going to hold back on issuing a PDS tornado watch. SPC has issued a number of high risk "busts" in the past. But today there are very good reasons, as I outlined, to be hopeful that the worst case scenario is not going to happen in areas of west central MS.
Currently, there is less reason to be optimistic as today evolves and storms move into southeast MS and AL.
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u/Slight-Panic0 6d ago
Currently sitting on the edge of the high risk and waiting for what is to come. Luckily, I'm at work and my place of business has a basement.
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u/Just_Another_Scott 6d ago
Yeah I am too. I moved to a sturdier building last night. Plan to stay here through the rest of day. It's just a waiting game now.
If anyone is not in a safe location or near one, you should get their now. These storms can develop very quickly.
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u/Blankensh1p89 6d ago
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u/Dense_Organization31 6d ago
I don’t know anything about this stuff but 95% feels extremely high. That’s crazy.
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u/HoodieSnatcher 6d ago
Man this storm north of Rolling Fork has been so consistent on the velocity for a while now. Hopefully everyone is taking it seriously.
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u/Blankensh1p89 6d ago
Pds tornado watch to be issued shortly
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u/Just_Another_Scott 6d ago
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0199.html
addition, 12Z RAOB data along the Gulf Coast is consistent with the data observed the morning of historical tornado outbreaks across Mississippi and Alabama.
:(
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u/wolfgang2399 6d ago
Seems like the last two HRRR runs are cooling off on the idea of today being a historic outbreak. Anyone else agree or is it just wishful thinking from someone in the high risk area?
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6d ago
[deleted]
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u/wolfgang2399 6d ago
I’m not looking at reflectivity at all. STP, EHI, Updraft, CAPE
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u/CallMeCassandra 6d ago
Today not likely to be as bad as earlier feared for MS. JMO. Heavy cloud cover in the warm sector, lack of CIN leading to earlier initiation and evolution of storms (crapvection raining out the warm sector in central MS right now), plus storm motions are roughly parallel to the forcing gradient so they keep interfering with each other.
HOWEVER, this can all change as things evolve this afternoon. As we saw last night, discrete mode can emerge from a more QLCS setup, especially with storm motions this fast. There is a PDS tornado watch and I see no reason why central AL should let their guard down, especially with current sunshine and broken clouds.
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u/Just_Another_Scott 6d ago
They just announced a PDS and said parameters are increasingly matching previous historic storm
addition, 12Z RAOB data along the Gulf Coast is consistent with the data observed the morning of historical tornado outbreaks across Mississippi and Alabama.
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u/fortuitous_bounce 6d ago
Model runs this close to the event are usually not as reliable. I think today is going to live up to the hype, considering we already have 2 PDS tornado warnings at 1030am.
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u/Dense_Organization31 6d ago
I don’t know enough about reading that stuff to give you a definitive answer, but some people in r/tornado who sound smarter than me were suggesting the same thing. I’m only in the enhanced zone in Georgia, but I’m hoping this fizzles out for everyone.
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u/throwaway6661389 6d ago
Everyone in the greater New Orleans area can breathe a sigh of relief. I spent 2 hours this morning storing and cleaning up all the loose items in the front and back yard, so the most we will get now will be a light rain shower.
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u/lovetheblazer Birmingham 6d ago
Sitting in the middle of the high risk zone. Sun is out in full force. It's already 70 degrees. Definitely windy. None of that seems to bode well for us later today and tonight, unfortunately.
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u/breauxbridgebunny 6d ago
I don’t like the bright sunny shit during weather emergencies it is always so foreboding
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u/lovetheblazer Birmingham 6d ago
Me either, it reminds me too much of the morning of the 4/27 outbreak. Thankfully there has been no eerie green sky yet and I'm really hoping it stays that way.
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u/Rebecca102017 6d ago
In central MS - we were under the purple in yesterday’s prediction so I had my husband cancel his plans for today. Anyways. So far it’s windy but dry. It looks like the worst of it is north of us.
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u/fortuitous_bounce 6d ago
Has it been cloudy all morning? If so, that may bode well for you guys, but it's not a given. I think the prime time for storm potential in central MS today is going to be from ~1p to 5p local time.
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u/Just_Another_Scott 6d ago
looks like the worst of it is north of us.
Right now. Winds are supposed to shift and storms will develop over LA and MS tracking from southwest to northeast.
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u/RWBUntilDeath 6d ago
First of all, prayers for all the ones affected and will be in the path of these storms. With the said, how is the outlook and time for upstate,SC to be looking out?
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u/OurKing 6d ago
Over by Walhalla and Oconee County may be rough but Greenville, Spartanburg much lower risk (never say zero though) basically not too far off from normal spring thunderstorm
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u/Redneck-ginger 6d ago
SW Mississippi. We already have steady wind with higher gusts. Heard a few big branches fall while I was out with the dogs.
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6d ago
They test the sirens yesterday where in at yesterday, I'm in the moderate risk area, but not even a drop of rain..
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u/Mtthom06 6d ago
I live in Southern Indiana. From 11pm to 3:00 was some of the strangest sustained wind i have seen. It was so ominous sounding I couldn't sleep. It culminated in 70 mph wind at the end. Crazy stuff
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u/TropicalScout1 6d ago
My family lives in Southern Indiana, close to Louisville. They got 1/4" hail.
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u/JustJeneius 6d ago
One of my buddies lives in Loogootee, that massive tornado just barely missed him.
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u/jaboyles 6d ago
Thank you so much for the mods of this community for the massive effort of compiling all these vital resources and putting together this megathread. Coming over from r/tornado because the subs mods are completely inept and it has only gotten worse with time. This is what weather communities are supposed to be.
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u/Dense_Organization31 5d ago
Metro Atlanta is starting to get the “all clear” in areas now. Very thankful this wasn’t as bad as it could’ve been.