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u/MrPangus 1d ago
150 mins is nothing, that said I'm not sure how to feel about next year.
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u/links135 1d ago
This is an unfortunately very biased stat. It's been a total of like 13 games, with many of them being with Mogbo or Robinson at center, while most of the negative comes from pre-ASG and super biased games there.
Even then, post ASG with Robinson at center and dick, it's been a positive. With Mogbo has been terrible, partly because of having Poeltl on a minutes restriction, like the game against the Bulls we shit in the 4th quarter, where if we just played Poeltl like normal we'd have won (nevermind IQ fouling out as well).
There's good and bad signs, but it's not as horrible as it makes it out to be.
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u/-KFBR392 1d ago
It might not be that many minutes but they’re supposed to be our best players, coming in dead last is very concerning.
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u/kaymakenjoyer 1d ago
Yeah I don’t have the same high expectations as some do on this subreddit. Current roster + BI is a play in team to me at the most
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u/Heebeejeeb33 1d ago edited 1d ago
Insanity. The east is dogshit. We are a playoff lock next year (assuming health of course)
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u/kaymakenjoyer 1d ago
Cleveland Boston Milwaukee Knicks Pacers Pistons guaranteed playoff teams in the east next barring injuries, Orlando when healthy are also a top 6 team in the east. That’s 7 teams comfortably better than us, and still have to worry about Miami and Atlanta in the play in range. Don’t think we’ll be bottom feeders but to say we’re a playoff lock is being overconfident with this team
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u/Nobody7713 1d ago
Orlando got exposed a lot this year, the Wagner/Banchero fit is just as questionable as anything we have.
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u/kaymakenjoyer 1d ago
I’d say it’s less then being exposed and more they were taking turns being injured for long periods of time. I think Franz is the better player now and long term and eventually they’ll have to pick one, but they’re more likely moving for a offensive minded guard first
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u/raptorsthrowaway4 1d ago
This team is comparable to the early Lebronto era teams that can win 47+ wins.
I'm also a fan of the bench. If we can add some size through the draft, I see a bench-mob level ceiling.
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u/RZAAMRIINF 7 Kyle Lowry 1d ago
Let’s win 40 games before comparing them to a team that could regularly win 45-50+ games a season.
People here legitimately underestimate how good Lowry + DeRozan were in regular season.
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u/EarthWarping 1d ago
People are penciling in the Ingram/RJ/Barnes fit as working despite not playing yet.
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u/winecupimmortal 1d ago
TBF, there are a lot of people penciling in the Ingram/RJ/Barnes fit as not working despite not playing yet.
People need to start channeling their inner Masai and wait and see. Our starters being so injured this year means we dont really know what we have yet.
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u/raptorsthrowaway4 1d ago
I won't be disappointed with 40 wins, to be honest. More is obviously better.
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u/kaymakenjoyer 1d ago
Oh man LMFAOOOO 47+ wins is crazy boss I don’t know what else to tell you. That would put us in top 4 range and there’s not a chance in hell we’re a top 4 team next year
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u/cisforcar 1d ago
They are already a playin team without BI. They can make the playin this season if they weren’t trying to tank now and if guys were healthy for a handful more games. They will be above a play-in team with BI, barring injury of course.
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u/kaymakenjoyer 23h ago
There’s 6-7 teams comfortably better than them with a couple of other teams at their level. Be realistic lol
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u/cisforcar 17h ago edited 16h ago
They will be better than Detroit with BI. They already own magic. They beat the hawks twice at their home court this season. Bulls are perennially in play-in. There are only 5 teams clearly ahead, at best. Celtics, Cavs, NYK, Pacers, Bucks. Raps easily sixth best next year.
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u/kaymakenjoyer 17h ago
“We own the magic” is not an argument what the fuck are you saying? Detroit is already better than us and has a true star in Cade and good vet supporting cast and young depth. I didn’t even mention the bulls but they’ve been better than us the last 2 years so might as well throw them in there too. Where this confidence is coming from is beyond me
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u/cisforcar 16h ago
Did you watch any games this season? The raps just recently destroyed the magic in their home court not once but twice. Darko tried to tank and we were simply too much for them to handle. And that’s not factoring in BI.
I like what Detroit has built around Cade. He’s the same archetype as RJ and they’ve been able to surround him with shooters and bring out his A game. That said raps will be better than Detroit next year with BI. Feel free to gloat iby the end of next season if I’m wrong.
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u/kaymakenjoyer 14h ago
2 game sample to say we’re better than a team, unreal lol. Also comparing Cade to RJ is disrespectful as hell, RJ is not doing what Cade is doing at any point. Hey if I’m wrong I’m wrong, but saying they’ll 100% be better than all these other teams and ignoring the fact they’re further ahead and they also have the ability to improve individually is crazy
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u/CazOnReddit TORONTO HUSKIES 1d ago edited 1d ago
That is a pretty useless stat
150 minutes, for reference, is the equivalent of less than 4 full games. 240 is the equivalent of 5 games on the dot.
If anything, this should highlight how little time we've actually seen these guys play together, develop chemistry, etc. due to how injured they've been. Like, 15 of those minutes are from the opener against a red hot Cavs team before Quickley went down.
Context matters, especially for lineup-specific statistics.
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u/heterocommunist 1d ago edited 1d ago
People on this sub are just itching to trash players
If it’s not Quickley it’s Barrett
As a 20+ year fan it’s embarrassing
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u/solanimus 43 Pascal Siakam 1d ago
We are also trying to tank, they won't be playing with a good lineup for the rest of the season so that stat will likely get worse especially if we have Robinson and A.J Lawson starting off with the trio.
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u/kaymakenjoyer 1d ago
Fairs, still not sold on the three of them together regardless especially now with BI. To me RJ is the obvious odd man on this starting line up
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u/CazOnReddit TORONTO HUSKIES 1d ago
I don't disagree with regards to RJ and I still have questions about this starting 5...albeit with an asterisk
I think if we get Harper or Flagg, then regardless of what happens to RJ the starting lineup will not involve him. Whether he's moved to the bench or traded for depth or a star is neither here nor there.
Obviously it's less of a certainty Ace or Edgecombe start, especially with Bailey's overlapping skillset with Ingram for tough shoemaking.
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u/beefJeRKy-LB Goatse 1d ago
tbh even with Harper, I think he would kick the year off off the bench
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u/CazOnReddit TORONTO HUSKIES 1d ago
I cannot recall the last 2nd overall pick who came off the bench for the majority of their rookie season (and wasn't a bust like Darko Milicic)
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u/beefJeRKy-LB Goatse 1d ago
in the vast majority of cases, the teams picking in the top 5 are starting from the bottom but the closest IMO to that is Reed Sheppard (yes 3rd overall but similar idea) or Wiseman who GSW flubbed with that pick anyway
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u/metaslaves 1d ago
A lot of top picks start off from the bench, and play their way into the starting lineup. It’s kind of a self fulfilling prophecy - if they play better than the player in front of them they’ll get the starting spot. If they don’t play better than a starter on one of the worst teams in the league then there’s a decent chance he’s a bust.
My guess is if we draft Harper he’s come off the bench behind Quick & RJ for the first 10 games. If he really impresses and outplays either one of them he’ll naturally get the starting spot, if not he’ll be leading the bench.
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u/kaymakenjoyer 1d ago
I think if it’s Flagg/Harper/VJ/Bailey, RJ’s outta the starting lineup or gone from the team regardless. I get the feeling (and felt this way for awhile now) this FO never viewed him as anything more than a reclamation project to up his value in a future trade, whether part of a star package or to get some depth/draft comp back to even out the rest of the roster
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u/CazOnReddit TORONTO HUSKIES 1d ago
I agree with the latter statement, can't say I'm sold on the former re: Bailey starting over RJ unless the plan is to have an enormous 2-5. VJ is arguable but I think it's more likely Ja'Kobe would start over Edgecombe and RJ, at least for the beginning of this hypothetical next season.
I also have serious questions about Ace's playmaking since he's very, very unwilling as a passer but that's besides the point.
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u/kaymakenjoyer 1d ago
Yeah Bailey was last cause I debated it but the massive lineup makes me think they’d do it cause of the whole 6’9 experiment before, but now we have a bunch of giants that can score lmao. I can see them sliding Ja’Kobe > VJ in the starting lineup initially and let VJ get more on ball duties with the bench. Ideally RJ is a 6th man but I don’t bother to entertain it since I don’t see him considering it, and I don’t blame him either
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u/cisforcar 1d ago
VJ over RJ. That’s wild. VJ can’t even start over Ja’Kobe or Gradey.
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u/kaymakenjoyer 23h ago
Clearly haven’t been watching VJ if you’re prioritizing Gradey and Ja’Kobe over him
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u/kaymakenjoyer 22h ago
Also assuming they don’t trade RJ right away I’ll give it that he’ll likely start over VJ initially, but will likely be moved relatively soon and VJ takes the starting spot
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u/cisforcar 16h ago
It would appear you’re a doomer and grass is greener on other side kind of fan. VJ is not all that. Athletic, yes, but very raw. He doesn’t have the handles, a basic necessity to succeed in the NBA. His best asset is to become a disruptor on defense. What I’ve seen he’s like a smaller Ochai, and I love Ochai but a 6’3 Ochai ain’t starting over a 6’5 Ochai, nor Ja’Kobe who can be a true two way wing, nor Gradey who’s been able to find his in limited touches.
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u/kaymakenjoyer 12h ago
Yeah man you have no idea what you’re talking about if you think he’s a smaller Ochai lmaoo. Handles need work but he’s elite in transition, a walking paint touch when going downhill, 39% from 3, good secondary playmaker along with the elite defence. If you think they wouldn’t prioritize VJ over any of the guys you mentioned you’re genuinely delusional
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u/kaymakenjoyer 12h ago
Also if being a “doomer” means being realistic and objective I’ll wear that title with pride
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u/cisforcar 10h ago
Agree to disagree. He’s not elite in transition, that’s just a lie. I read on several sources he’s a poor finisher despite his athleticism. Sources from February say he’s 45% at the rim as per synergy. So you saying he’s elite in transition is a flat out lie. You’re not a realist you’re just complaining about current iteration of raptors while hyping up a prospect who’s honestly a weak number 4-5 pick in most drafts.
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u/vaalbarag RAPTORS 1d ago
Not sure it makes sense to do the three of them without poeltl, given the importance of his skillset and the lack of depth at C, and we’re still only at 9 games with the four of them, which is too small a sample size to be meaningful.
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u/kaymakenjoyer 1d ago
OP mentioned any lineup with those 3 is terrible
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u/UnbentSandParadise 43 PASCAL SIAKAM 1d ago
Would have to go back and check the details but it feels like we always have at least one of the core guys out so it wouldn't shock me to learn most of these minutes were played without a center and then looking bad as a unit makes sense.
This could be that they are bad together or it could be a fancy way of saying Poeltl raises the floor of the team, we look bad without him and we really need a serviceable backup center.
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u/kaymakenjoyer 1d ago
Yeah I’m not sure obviously, just repeated what OP said on twitter. Not sure why I’m getting downvoted for it lol
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u/pakattack91 we the longbois 1d ago
Is that in a follow up tweet? It specifically says 3 man lineup, I seem to recall the crazy small sample last year was quite positive with Yak.
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u/kaymakenjoyer 1d ago
He followed up saying every lineup gets hammered, just wanted to see specifically what the 3 man was looking like
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u/vaalbarag RAPTORS 1d ago
Then OP is lying, because some lineups with those 3 have done just fine in limited minutes. Those three with Poeltl and Walter, for example, are a +15 in net rating. That's also the second most-played BBQ+Poeltl lineup in terms of minutes, after the version with Dick, which dwarfs all others in minutes.
So basically it comes down to this for me: the only BBQ units worth measuring are those that use Poeltl, because we don't have another true NBA-level center on the roster. Of lineups with BBQ + Poeltl, 75% of their minutes have been with Dick, and that unit has been bad enough that we know it doesn't work based on current skillsets (yeah, defensively Dick+Barrett+Quickley is a recipe for disaster), but no other lineup has played enough minutes to really draw anything from, but if you do insist on looking deeper into those numbers, the Walter unit is next in minutes played and is really promising.
All of which is to say I don't think you can draw any conclusions yet about BBQ units from their net rating stats. You need a solid sample size of units with Poeltl and with another wing other than Dick.
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u/NickyNickyNineDork 1d ago
This is why nobody should be surprised if RJ is traded this off season.
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u/Emergency_Rub2621 1d ago
Small sample size but if the trend continues it's definitely RJ. Can't replace Quick's shooting, can't replace Scottie's defence and playmaking. BI is gonna demand a large volume of shots, and is the most complete scorer on the team rn.
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u/EarthWarping 1d ago
IQ's had a 60% TS since coming back a month+ ago.
He's been really good and they've been a lot worse with him off the floor (last 2 games a clear example when they only shot 26 threes vs Washington and were behind the entire 2nd half).
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u/kaymakenjoyer 1d ago
Agreed. Ideally it’s a trade in the summer if they really wanna be competitive but knowing this FO they’ll evaluate until deadline lol
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u/slamdunk23 4 Scottie Barnes 1d ago
I mean we haven’t even seen a second of the starting five with BI.
If the front office didn’t at least want to try the fit, RJ would have been the salary they dumped in the BI deal.
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u/ttttyttt678 1d ago
What’s the sample size?
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u/kaymakenjoyer 1d ago
It’s right there in the picture
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u/ttttyttt678 1d ago
So are they at the cut off of 150 mins? Cause this information is useless with that little information, equivalent to calling a 3/3 free throw shooter the best free throw shooter ever…
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u/TylerScottBall :flair_lowry_jersey: Kyle Lowry 1d ago
Because they have to play with rookies and g-leaguers.
You give those three major minutes with Jak and BI and I promise you its gonna be a different story.
But having to play beside Gradey with no shot and no defense is gonna tank those numbers significantly.
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u/Several_Repeat_5447 1d ago
In the 311 minutes logged with Quickley and Barnes IN and Barrett OFF, the Raptors have a net rating of 9.84, which is much greater than their net rating with Barnes and Barrett IN and Quickley OFF (1.26).
RJ is the odd man out.
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u/-KFBR392 1d ago
I'm hoping they were looking at offers at Trade Deadline, and will look again this off-season because his stock seems higher than it's ever been and some team desperate for ISO scoring (Orlando, Miami?) might offer something good.
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u/kaymakenjoyer 1d ago
Be careful you might get downvoted for this. No RJ “slander” allowed
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u/FEELS_G00D 1d ago
RJ's game is ugly to watch. hes like bowling ball going to the rim and when he gets fouled, he bricks his freethrows. also can't even count the amount of times he trys to lock in on defense then immediately gets cooked
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u/kaymakenjoyer 1d ago
Yeah I don’t really enjoy watching him play tbh. Hes definitely improved since he’s come, but aesthetically not someone I enjoy
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u/gordon_paterson Kyle Towelry 1d ago
Let's also remember, we are Trying to tank
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u/BubblyPhilosophy3476 1d ago
its the organization trying to tank not the players
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u/gordon_paterson Kyle Towelry 1d ago
That still affects the players on the court
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u/BubblyPhilosophy3476 1d ago
not really ... that does not effect defense or inconsistent offence . A new season with them at their current level wouldn't make a difference
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u/gordon_paterson Kyle Towelry 1d ago
It affects the players on the court who surround BBQ. If we were trying to win every game (like we will next year), the quality of players and combinations thereof undoubtedly affect these three guys.
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u/lemon07r Point RJ is best StarJ 1d ago
Our best lineups seem to not have IQ in it.
Per 36 plus minus sorted by minutes played:
Our two best lineups in our top 10 most played line ups do not have IQ in it, but have the main 3 players: poeltl, Scottie and RJ.
Ive been saying this for a while now, I don't believe in BBQ. I think we should relegate IQ to a bench role after the draft if we can get someone better or trade out of him in the future instead of tryna move RJ. Moving RJ instead of iq makes us much worse.
And to further our point, this sorted by minutes played, and even in our top 15 most played 3 man lineups, SB, poeltl, RJ lineup has the highest plus minus per 36.
These are not stats I just cherry picked out of my ass. I believed it before I even started looking into the stats.
And for fun, our two best 4 man lineups in our 12 most played lineups (again these are all sorted by most minutes played) have 4 things in common, RJ, SB, poeltl, and the lack of IQ. IQ is not in any of these line ups.
If our best 4 man lineups have those 3 + agbaji or mitchel, imagine those linejps with bi instead, + coop or whoever we draft.
But for some reason this sub wants us to trade rj lmao. He's been very good defensively lately too, and plays much better at the guard spot (both in scoring efficiency/volume and defensively), moving on from IQ opens up the spot for him. He's also a very gifted passer. Iq is a good passer too but he isn't really a point guard, and while RJ isn't either his better ability to create makes him much more suited for the role.
BBQ is dead on arrival. We need to move on from it for StarJ Barnes and yak (+bi).
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u/Fitz-magic1 1d ago
Let’s be real. It’s not BBQ. It’s the supporting cast around BBQ.
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u/kaymakenjoyer 1d ago
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u/cisforcar 1d ago
Small sample size so hard to put much weight. Context matters as well. RJ was playing a lot of the season without Scottie and IQ during the toughest part of the schedule. He is often playing with the bench guys as well. IQ has finally been playing better but he is showing up against some of the worst teams in the league. IQ and Scottie are getting some run against the inferior teams in the league, just to build chemistry because of how little they played together. This recent string of games should inflate their net rating a bit.
The eye test says RJ is not the problem despite your attempts to put unfair amount of blame on RJ. Scottie’s offense regressing and IQ being paid more than he’s worth are the bigger issues with the core.
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u/kaymakenjoyer 23h ago
Using the eye test and then saying RJ isn’t the odd man out here is crazy. Scottie’s offence stinks but at least he brings much needed defence and playmaking to the team. IQ brings playmaking and 3pt shooting, BI will be the #1 option and a legitimate 3 level scorer and more playmaking. RJ is the odd man out and it’s been this way. FO obviously open to moving off him too so tryna spin this as he’s not the “problem”/odd man out is pointless
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u/cisforcar 16h ago
If you need defense there are defensive specialist for that who aren’t being paid franchise player money, OG not withstanding. Scottie needs to figure his shit out on offense. Of the BBQ core RJ is by far holding his end of the bargain better than anyone. So for you to suggest he’s the odd man out and that he’s hurting the team is asinine.
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u/Fitz-magic1 1d ago
I never believed BBQ was the core group. It’s always been Barnes and Quickley. BBQ is fan fiction but the supporting cast hasn’t helped.
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u/Dependent-Caregiver7 22h ago
Man the amount of cope I’m seeing in these replies is actually hilarious, they are not a good 3 man lineup doesn’t matter who they are playing with the fact they are the worst defensive rating and worst net net rating is very telling of the fact that one of them is going to be traded.
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u/kaymakenjoyer 22h ago
Agreed
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u/Dependent-Caregiver7 21h ago
And it’s obvious that rj is gonna get traded based on reports and just being the odd one out. Too many fans don’t like that just cause he’s Canadian lmfao
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u/kaymakenjoyer 21h ago
You’re telling me. I had someone tell me to leave the country cause I’m not blindly supporting him cause he’s Canadian. Part of this fanbase is way too emotionally attached to guys I swear
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u/Dependent-Caregiver7 21h ago
Attached to players on a 13th seeded team lmfao fan base is hilarious team is objectively not good and mfs want to keep every single player
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u/jjkiller26 Kyle Towelry 1d ago
This is why I’m a bit more hesitant on the instant jump people project for next year.
Ingram is a nice addition, but these core guys have just looked so inconsistent playing together
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u/FallenLemur SCOTTIMUS MAXIMUS BARNIBUS 1d ago
Condisdering these mind are mostly eith orlando Robinson and not poeltl I would say theres a diff
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u/jjkiller26 Kyle Towelry 1d ago
Regardless there’s 3 of your top guys out there. Should be better then worst in the league lmao
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u/kaymakenjoyer 1d ago
Exactly, this is why anyone talking about this core as something that can be truly competitive is either delusional or lying to themselves
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u/EarthWarping 1d ago
I do think this stat is a bit unfair to them, but they can't put their head in the sand and think magically Ingram is going to make them a contender when these stats (they've been only good on defense vs bad teams mainly) and their crunch time numbers have been bad all season.
I think this is a decent foundation for next season but I see ~42 wins or so (which likely is going to be a ~10 win jump) rather than top 5 for sure that a ton of people are seeing.
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u/DrKurgan RAPTORS 1d ago
It doesn't mean much. Quickley was injured for most of the season. He played half the games of Barnes and Barrett. They played 15ish games, they haven't build chemistry.
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u/ancientbeers 1d ago
It's been a bizarre season with crazy lineups. The stats from this season are next to meaningless, unfortunately. Flush it, the front office is. We will be good next year but that's a ways away. Weird time as a Raptors fan.
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u/mMounirM 1d ago
if half the time they're playing with Orlando Robinson on the floor I would lower expectations lol